{"id":69329,"date":"2025-01-02T00:42:07","date_gmt":"2025-01-01T23:42:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=69329"},"modified":"2025-01-01T18:49:28","modified_gmt":"2025-01-01T17:49:28","slug":"michael-svatos-ruska-letosni-jarni-ofenziva-podrobna-analyza-ruskych-moznosti-mapy-videa-a-dalsi-dukazy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2025\/01\/02\/michael-svatos-ruska-letosni-jarni-ofenziva-podrobna-analyza-ruskych-moznosti-mapy-videa-a-dalsi-dukazy\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: Rusk\u00e1 leto\u0161n\u00ed jarn\u00ed ofenz\u00edva \u2013 podrobn\u00e1 anal\u00fdza rusk\u00fdch mo\u017enost\u00ed. Mapy, videa a dal\u0161\u00ed d\u016fkazy"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P\u0159eji v\u0161em v\u0161e nejlep\u0161\u00ed a nejkr\u00e1sn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v roce 2025, a d\u011bkuji v\u0161em za v\u0161echno! T\u00edm kon\u010d\u00ed v\u0161echna pozitiva, a d\u00e1l v dne\u0161n\u00ed anal\u00fdze op\u011bt nastoup\u00ed krut\u00e1 realita.<\/p>\n

V\u010dera p\u0159ed p\u016flnoc\u00ed se Rusov\u00e9 pochlubili, \u017ee Ukrajinci prchli z m\u011bsta Kurachove, (p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou 20 000 obyvatel),\u00a0a uk\u00e1zali na kr\u00e1sn\u00e9m videu<\/a>,\u00a0jak vzty\u010dili, v nejz\u00e1padn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm bodu m\u011bsta, na m\u011bstsk\u00e9 tepeln\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rn\u011b, svoji v\u00edt\u011bznou vlajku. V\u010derej\u0161\u00ed Silvestrovsk\u00fd \u00faprk Ukrajinc\u016f z Kurachove bude m\u00edt pro dal\u0161\u00ed pr\u016fb\u011bh bitvy o Pokrovsk mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fd v\u00fdznam. Proto ho dnes rozebereme podrobn\u011bji.<\/p>\n

Dobyt\u00edm m\u011bsta Kurachove Rusov\u00e9 zlikvidovali posledn\u00ed zbytek tzv. kurakhivsk\u00e9 \u0159\u00edmsy, (\u010dtverec mezi m\u011bsty Velika Novosylka, Vuhledar, Kurachove, Avdijivka), ze kter\u00e9 v l\u00e9t\u011b 2023 podniky obrn\u011bn\u00e9 jednotky kyjevsk\u00e9ho gener\u00e1la\u00a0 Zalu\u017en\u00e9ho sv\u016fj slavn\u00fd sebevra\u017eedn\u00fd n\u00e1jezd proti Surovikinov\u011b linii, a jej\u00ed\u017e zbytky je\u0161t\u011b letos na podzim tr\u010dely jako kl\u00edn do ji\u017en\u00edho boku opera\u010dn\u00ed skupiny St\u0159ed gener\u00e1la Mordvi\u010deva pokou\u0161ej\u00edc\u00ed se z jihov\u00fdchodu a z jihoz\u00e1padu obkl\u00ed\u010dit velk\u00e9 dvojm\u011bst\u00ed Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad, (p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou 100 000 obyvatel).<\/p>\n

Ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed gener\u00e1lov\u00e9 nejsou \u00fapln\u00ed pitomci, a tak si byli d\u016fle\u017eitosti opera\u010dn\u00ed hodnoty kurakhivsk\u00e9 \u0159\u00edmsy pro \u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou obranu Pokrovska v\u011bdomi,\u00a0a proto ihned po v\u00e1noc\u00edch vrhli ze severoz\u00e1padu do prostoru mezi m\u011bsty Kurachove a Pokrovsk svoji novou ve Francii na podzim vycvi\u010denou a vyzbrojenou brig\u00e1du Anna Kyjevsk\u00e1<\/a>, respektive tu polovinu brig\u00e1dy, kter\u00e1 p\u0159ed v\u00e1noci nedezertovala. Cel\u00fd silvestrovsk\u00fd n\u00e1jezd kolon francouzsk\u00fdch obrn\u011bnc\u016f AMX-10-RC a n\u011bmeck\u00fdch Leopard\u016f II na ruskou p\u0159edsunutou obranou linii v\u0161ak v\u010dera skon\u010dil jen dal\u0161\u00edm krvav\u00fdm debaklem z\u00e1padn\u00edch zbran\u00ed a ukrajinsk\u00e9 p\u011bchoty.<\/p>\n

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Silvestrovsk\u00fd n\u00e1jezd francouzsk\u00fdch obrn\u011bnc\u016f AMX-10-RC, kter\u00fd m\u011bl zachr\u00e1nit pos\u00e1dku m\u011bsta Kurachove p\u0159ed kapitulac\u00ed skon\u010dil neslavn\u011b,\u00a0obrn\u011bnce sho\u0159ely<\/a>.\u00a0L\u00e9pe nedopadla ani ukrajinsk\u00e1 BVP, i ta se rychle stala ob\u011bt\u00ed rusk\u00fdch dron\u016f nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdch po optick\u00fdch vl\u00e1knech, kter\u00e9 na n\u011b uspo\u0159\u00e1daly lov.\u00a0(Video a dal\u0161\u00ed fotky zde.<\/a>) (Video zni\u010den\u00ed Leopard II u Kurachove zde<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\u0160okovan\u00fd \u0161\u00e9f ukrajinsk\u00e9 tajn\u00e9 slu\u017eby Budanov po v\u010derej\u0161\u00edm masakru \u00fato\u010d\u00edc\u00edch Ukrajinc\u016f p\u0159iznal<\/a>, \u017ee \u201crusk\u00e9 drony nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9 po optick\u00fdch vl\u00e1knech\u201d jsou na boji\u0161ti v masov\u00fdch po\u010dtech, a Ukrajina proti nim nem\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dnou obranu, proto\u017ee se nedaj\u00ed ani ru\u0161it, ani sest\u0159elit.\u00a0\u00a0V\u010derej\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1jezd Ukrajinc\u016f na p\u0159edsunut\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 postaven\u00ed u Pokrovska a Kurachove uk\u00e1zal z\u00e1sadn\u00ed prom\u011bnu boji\u0161t\u011b od letn\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy 2023. Pokud je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ed rokem si Ukrajinci se z\u00e1padn\u00edmi obrn\u011bn\u00fdmi vozidly dok\u00e1zali za cenu obrovsk\u00fdch ztr\u00e1t prorazit cestu rusk\u00fdmi minov\u00fdmi poli, a potom je\u0161t\u011b p\u0159ekonat rusk\u00e1 p\u0159edsunut\u00e1 obrann\u00e1 postaven\u00ed, ne\u017e byli definitivn\u011b zmasakrov\u00e1ni a zastaveni, v posledn\u00edch dnech lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku se u\u017e Ukrajinci s t\u011bmi sam\u00fdmi obrn\u011bnci ani nedok\u00e1zali k rusk\u00fdm minov\u00fdm pol\u00edm p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eit, nato\u017e aby svedli boj s rusk\u00fdm p\u0159edsunut\u00fdm bojov\u00fdm zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edm. Absolutn\u00ed p\u0159evaha rusk\u00fdch dron\u016f v z\u00f3n\u011b \u201cdominance a izolace\u201d, kter\u00e1 je vytvo\u0159ena kolem m\u011bst Pokrovsk a Kurachove znovu dok\u00e1zala absolutn\u00ed nad\u0159azenost t\u00e9to nov\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 taktiky nad v\u0161\u00edm v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm um\u011bn\u00edm Z\u00e1padu, respektive dokud nebudou m\u00edt Ukrajinci srovnatelnou arm\u00e1du zabij\u00e1ck\u00fdch dron\u016f \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch po optick\u00fdch vl\u00e1knech, je mrh\u00e1n\u00edm \u017eivot\u016f a vojensk\u00e9 techniky pokou\u0161et se v z\u00f3n\u011b \u201crusk\u00e9 dominance a izolace\u201d \u00fato\u010dit.<\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 v\u010dera uk\u00e1zali na \u0159ad\u011b vide\u00ed, jak z\u00f3na dominance a izolace funguje.<\/p>\n

Zde uvid\u00edte, jak 3 rakety Iskander v\u010dera zni\u010dily kolonu 6 US raketomet\u016f HIMARS u m\u011bsta David\u016fv Brod. Trestuhodn\u011b naivn\u00ed Ukrajinci se\u0159adili 6 raketomet\u016f do kolony a vyrazili po asfaltov\u00e9 cest\u011b k Dn\u011bpru, aby na Rusy z bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 vzd\u00e1lenosti odp\u00e1lili salvu. Rusk\u00e9 drony, kter\u00e9 hl\u00eddkuj\u00ed a\u017e do hloubky 100 km od fronty, a st\u0159e\u017e\u00ed v\u0161echny cesty, je snadno vy\u010denichaly,\u00a0a ve vzd\u00e1lenosti 50 km z\u00e1padn\u011b od Dn\u011bpru na n\u011b navedly Iskandery<\/a>. Video kr\u00e1sn\u011b ukazuje, jak Rusov\u00e9 st\u0159e\u017e\u00ed a ovl\u00e1daj\u00ed v\u0161echny komunikace a\u017e do hloubky 50 km od b\u0159ehu Dn\u011bpru sm\u011brem na Z\u00e1pad. Za t\u00e9to situace je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee p\u0159echod Dn\u011bpru u\u017e nen\u00ed mimo realitu.<\/p>\n

Zde uvid\u00edte<\/a>,\u00a0jak rusk\u00e9 drony l\u00e9taj\u00ed pod\u00e9l asfaltov\u00fdch cest, po nich\u017e se ukrajinsk\u00e1 vozidla mus\u00ed pohybovat kv\u016fli zimn\u00ed\u00a0rasputice<\/a>, a jakmile n\u011bjak\u00e9 vozidlo objev\u00ed, zni\u010d\u00ed je.<\/p>\n

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Mapa nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed velk\u00e9 obkli\u010dovac\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy gener\u00e1la Mordvi\u010deva. Vysv\u011btlivky: \u017dlut\u00fd obd\u00e9ln\u00edk = p\u016fvodn\u00ed rozsah kurakhivsk\u00e9 \u0159\u00edmsy, kter\u00e1 tr\u010dela jako kl\u00edn v ji\u017en\u00edm boku gener\u00e1la Mordvi\u010deva. \u010cern\u00fd p\u0159e\u0161krtnut\u00fd ov\u00e1l = Prostor, kter\u00fd spole\u010dn\u011b do zah\u00e1jen\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy vy\u010dist\u00ed gener\u00e1lov\u00e9 Kuzovlev (ji\u017en\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st), a Mordvi\u010dev (severn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st). B\u00edl\u00e1 linka = budouc\u00ed frontov\u00e1 linie, na n\u00ed\u017e se soust\u0159ed\u00ed v\u00fdhradn\u011b Kuzovlevovy jednotky. Zelen\u00e1 \u0161ipka = Mordvi\u010devova 2. arm\u00e1da bude \u00fato\u010dit z\u00e1padn\u011b od Pokrovska. Tmav\u011b modr\u00e1 \u0161ipka = Mordvi\u010devova 41, se p\u0159esune v\u00fdchodn\u011b od Pokrovska, proto\u017ee po likvidaci \u201ctrnu v boku\u201d jej\u00ed m\u00edsto na zkr\u00e1cen\u00e9 vyrovnan\u00e9 front\u011b zaujme Kuzovlevova opera\u010dn\u00ed skupina. Bled\u011b modr\u00e1 \u0161ipka, o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd postup 41. Mordvi\u010devovy arm\u00e1dy po jej\u00edm p\u0159esunu. Podle ukrajinsk\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1bn\u00edch propo\u010dt\u016f, aby byla ofenz\u00edva \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1, bude muset gener\u00e1l Gerasimov p\u0159idat do 41. Mordvi\u010devovy arm\u00e1dy aspo\u0148 jednu motost\u0159eleckou divizi. Ta bude z\u0159ejm\u011b p\u0159esunuta z podivn\u00e9 skupiny gener\u00e1la Nikiforova, kde se minul\u00e9ho p\u016flroku cvi\u010dila v \u00fatoc\u00edch. Podle v\u0161eho p\u016fjde o v regulern\u00ed ruskou divizi reorganizovan\u00e9 luhansk\u00e9 a don\u011bck\u00e9 rebely. Viz. p\u0159edchoz\u00ed anal\u00fdzy.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

O\u010dek\u00e1van\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 jarn\u00ed ofenz\u00edva 2025 proti Pokrovsku by m\u011bla slavit je\u0161t\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u00fasp\u011bch, ne\u017e lo\u0148sk\u00fd postup od Don\u011bcka do Pokrovsku. Zn\u00e1m\u00fd rakousk\u00fd profesor a plukovn\u00edk Markus Reisner\u00a0u\u017e 30. prosince p\u0159edpov\u011bd\u011bl, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 brzy vypud\u00ed Ukrajince z Kurachova<\/a>. V\u010dera se to splnilo. Reisner d\u00e1le analyzoval, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da je na konci sv\u00fdch sil, mor\u00e1lka upadla, dezerce se mno\u017e\u00ed, a bez ohledu jakou obranu jej\u00ed jednotky zaujmou, Rusov\u00e9 ji proraz\u00ed. Gener\u00e1lov\u00e9 Mordvi\u010dev a Kuzovlev, po v\u010derej\u0161\u00ed krvav\u00e9 likvidaci proti\u00fatoku nov\u00e9 brig\u00e1dy Anna Kyjevsk\u00e1, vycvi\u010den\u00e9 ve Francii, budou pot\u0159ebovat asi m\u011bs\u00edc, na vy\u010di\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed zbytku kurakhivsk\u00e9 \u0159\u00edmsy, a na p\u0159esun 41. arm\u00e1dy z prostoru severn\u011b Kurachove do prostoru jihov\u00fdchodn\u011b Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad, vzd\u00e1lenost p\u0159esunu = 40 km. Pokud gener\u00e1l Gerasimov pos\u00edl\u00ed 41. arm\u00e1du jednou motost\u0159eleckou diviz\u00ed, jak se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, bude \u00fatok velmi razantn\u00ed, a jeho tempo bude rychlej\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e tempo lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho postupu. Ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da nav\u00edc za lo\u0148sk\u00fd rok siln\u011b degradovala. Jej\u00ed obrn\u011bn\u00e1 vozidla se ji\u017e p\u016fl roku na don\u011bck\u00e9 front\u011b nedok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ani p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eit k frontov\u00e9 linii. V\u010derej\u0161\u00ed krvav\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eka obrn\u011bn\u00e9 zte\u010de na Kurachov je toho dal\u0161\u00edm d\u016fkazem.<\/p>\n

Plukovn\u00edk Reisner p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, jakmile Mordvi\u010dev vyraz\u00ed zleva i zprava kolem dvojm\u011bst\u00ed Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad na sever, zhrout\u00ed se cel\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e1 obrana u \u010casyv Jar,\u00a0Siverska<\/a>, a na \u0159ece Oskol. Cel\u00e1 skupina arm\u00e1d Ukrajiny se bude muset st\u00e1hnout na v\u00fdchod k Charkovu, a obrana Slavjanska tak nebude dlouhodob\u011b mo\u017en\u00e1. Lze tak p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee v l\u00e9t\u011b bud linie fronty pod\u00e9l p\u0159\u00edmky Charkov \u2013 Dn\u011bpropetrovsk, a rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da bude m\u00edt zabezpe\u010den \u0161irok\u00fd a nedobytn\u00fd pozemn\u00ed most, a\u017e ke Dn\u011bpru, kudy bude tou dokon\u010dena d\u00e1lnice a \u017eeleznice. Pokud Ukrajina do t\u00e9 doby nez\u00edsk\u00e1 nov\u00e9 zbran\u011b v mno\u017estv\u00ed nejm\u00e9n\u011b 2 kr\u00e1t p\u0159evy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00edm v\u0161echny dosavadn\u00ed dod\u00e1vky, v\u010detn\u011b nejm\u00e9n\u011b 2 milion\u016f dron\u016f, a nebude zmobilizov\u00e1no a vycvi\u010deno\u00a0 dal\u0161\u00edch 300 a\u017e 400 tis\u00edc mu\u017e\u016f, budou m\u00edt Rusov\u00e9 nakro\u010deno k \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9mu p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed Dn\u011bpru. Nen\u00ed tak nemo\u017en\u00e9, aby se koncem roku neprobili a\u017e k Od\u011bse. Nebo, aby pod\u00e9l Dn\u011bpru obkl\u00ed\u010dili Charkov.<\/p>\n

Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159eji v\u0161em v\u0161e nejlep\u0161\u00ed a nejkr\u00e1sn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v roce 2025, a d\u011bkuji v\u0161em za v\u0161echno! T\u00edm…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62300,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,1917,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69329"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69329"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69329\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62300"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69329"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69329"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69329"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}