{"id":68983,"date":"2024-12-27T00:41:38","date_gmt":"2024-12-26T23:41:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=68983"},"modified":"2024-12-26T11:18:21","modified_gmt":"2024-12-26T10:18:21","slug":"thomas-roper-erdoganovo-uchopeni-moci-v-syrii-a-co-by-to-mohlo-znamenat-pro-rusko","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/27\/thomas-roper-erdoganovo-uchopeni-moci-v-syrii-a-co-by-to-mohlo-znamenat-pro-rusko\/","title":{"rendered":"Thomas R\u00f6per: Erdoganovo uchopen\u00ed moci v S\u00fdrii a co by to mohlo znamenat pro Rusko"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Tureck\u00fd prezident Erdogan jasn\u011b ukazuje, \u017ee nov\u00e9 syrsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dce skute\u010dn\u011b podporuje. Co m\u016f\u017eeme uzav\u0159\u00edt o p\u00e1du Asada a co by to mohlo znamenat pro budoucnost rusk\u00fdch vojensk\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen v S\u00fdrii?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Je st\u00e1le z\u0159ejm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee pl\u00e1n \u00fatoku islamist\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed na za\u010d\u00e1tku prosince svrhli syrsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Asada, znaly d\u0159\u00edve i st\u00e1ty p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00ed v S\u00fdrii. Nap\u0159\u00edklad \u00fatok byl zjevn\u011b koordinov\u00e1n s Izraelem, proto\u017ee za\u010dal bezprost\u0159edn\u011b pot\u00e9, co Izrael vyjednal p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed s Hizball\u00e1hem, a tak se jeho arm\u00e1da vr\u00e1tila k z\u00e1sahu v S\u00fdrii. A Izrael vojensky zas\u00e1hl, obsadil \u010d\u00e1sti S\u00fdrie u Golansk\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161in a n\u00e1lety zni\u010dil syrskou protivzdu\u0161nou obranu, muni\u010dn\u00ed sklady a n\u00e1mo\u0159nictvo.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA byly zjevn\u011b tak\u00e9 informov\u00e1ny p\u0159edem, proto\u017ee jak se p\u0159ed p\u00e1r dny uk\u00e1zalo, USA\u00a0<\/span>t\u011bsn\u011b p\u0159ed \u00fatokem islamist\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0zv\u00fd\u0161ily svou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v S\u00fdrii a zdvojn\u00e1sobily sv\u016fj kontingent ze zhruba 900 na 2000 voj\u00e1k\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lze si tedy polo\u017eit ot\u00e1zku, zda Rusko o tom v\u0161em nic nev\u011bd\u011blo a nev\u011bd\u011blo o p\u0159\u00edprav\u00e1ch, nebo zda bylo Rusko tak\u00e9 p\u0159edem informov\u00e1no nap\u0159\u00edklad Tureckem. Erdogan si koneckonc\u016f v\u00e1\u017e\u00ed sv\u00e9ho dobr\u00e9ho vztahu s Putinem a je zn\u00e1mo, \u017ee Putin poru\u0161uje sv\u00e9 slovo velmi \u0161patn\u011b. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee mezi Ruskem, Tureckem, \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Asadem prob\u00edhala jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o budoucnosti S\u00fdrie a\u00a0<\/span>hovo\u0159ilo se dokonce<\/span><\/a>\u00a0o brzk\u00e9m setk\u00e1n\u00ed Erdogana a Asada v Moskv\u011b , mohl Putin pova\u017eovat \u00fatok islamist\u016f organizovan\u00fd Tureckem za poru\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00e9ho slova, kter\u00e9 proto lze alespo\u0148 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee Turecko tak\u00e9 informovalo Rusko, aby se vyhnulo ztr\u00e1t\u011b Putinovy \u200b\u200bd\u016fv\u011bry.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tomu nahr\u00e1v\u00e1 i p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b klidn\u00e1 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed reakce Moskvy na Assadovo svr\u017een\u00ed, ale proto\u017ee nev\u00edme, co se d\u011bje v z\u00e1kulis\u00ed, jde samoz\u0159ejm\u011b o spekulace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Geopolitika je \u0161pinav\u00e1<\/span><\/h3>\n

P\u0159\u00edklad z r\u016fzn\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f znovu ukazuje, \u017ee geopolitika je \u0161pinav\u00e1 hra, kter\u00e1 nen\u00ed o n\u00e1bo\u017eenstv\u00ed ani o \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdch hodnot\u00e1ch, ale pouze o hmatateln\u00fdch mocensk\u00fdch z\u00e1jmech. Erdogan od za\u010d\u00e1tku syrsk\u00e9 ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky usiluje o svr\u017een\u00ed Asada, proto\u017ee chce roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it tureck\u00fd vliv v S\u00fdrii a douf\u00e1 v jak\u00e9si o\u017eiven\u00ed tureck\u00e9ho vlivu v regionu, jak\u00fd existoval za Osmansk\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Erdogan na tom z\u0159ejm\u011b spolupracoval i s Izraelem, i kdy\u017e je jedn\u00edm z nejtvrd\u0161\u00edch kritik\u016f izraelsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky v Gaze a p\u016fsob\u00ed jako jak\u00fdsi ochr\u00e1nce Palestinc\u016f. Kdy\u017e jde o moc, n\u00e1bo\u017eenstv\u00ed se zjevn\u011b st\u00e1v\u00e1 druho\u0159ad\u00fdm.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA tak\u00e9 umo\u017enily \u00fatok islamist\u016f, a\u010dkoli svou p\u0159\u00edtomnost v S\u00fdrii ospravedl\u0148uj\u00ed bojem pr\u00e1v\u011b proti t\u011bmto islamist\u016fm, kte\u0159\u00ed se od\u0161t\u011bpili od Al-K\u00e1idy a IS, a p\u0159esto\u017ee USA vypsaly milionovou odm\u011bnu na novou S\u00fdrii. \u0161\u00e9f vl\u00e1dy suspendov\u00e1n. Z\u00e1pad obecn\u011b najednou nem\u00e1 v S\u00fdrii probl\u00e9m se sam\u00fdmi islamisty, proti kter\u00fdm pr\u00fd v S\u00fdrii bojuje u\u017e p\u0159es deset let.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Rusko je ji\u017e tak\u00e9 v kontaktu s nov\u00fdm syrsk\u00fdm veden\u00edm, a p\u0159esto\u017ee Rusko tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee je bombardovalo b\u011bhem jejich \u00fatoku proti Asadovi, nov\u00ed vl\u00e1dci v S\u00fdrii okam\u017eit\u011b poskytli bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky rusk\u00fdm diplomatick\u00fdm mis\u00edm a novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm a rusk\u00fdm vojensk\u00fdm z\u00e1kladn\u00e1m, zat\u00edmco oni \u00fato\u010dili a ni\u010dili je. \u00edr\u00e1nskou ambas\u00e1du v Dama\u0161ku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco Z\u00e1pad l\u017ee ve\u0159ejnosti, proto\u017ee ve skute\u010dnosti po desetilet\u00ed instrumentalizuje a podporuje islamisty, proti kter\u00fdm tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee bojuj\u00ed, rusk\u00fd postoj je konzistentn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed. Ale rusk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da je pragmatick\u00e1 a reaguje na vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed realitu. Kdy\u017e se nap\u0159\u00edklad T\u00e1lib\u00e1n znovu chopil moci v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, Rusko s nimi okam\u017eit\u011b zah\u00e1jilo rozhovory, i kdy\u017e jsou v Rusku klasifikov\u00e1ni jako teroristick\u00e1 organizace, proto\u017ee Rusko m\u011blo pouze na v\u00fdb\u011br, zda vyt\u011b\u017e\u00ed to nejlep\u0161\u00ed z nov\u00e9 situace nebo vlny uprchl\u00edk\u016f. z Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu (v\u010detn\u011b hrozby terorismu).<\/span><\/p>\n

Tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed v S\u00fdrii. Rusko rozhodn\u011b nem\u00e1 radost ze zm\u011bny moci v zemi, ale pokud si chce zachovat sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny v S\u00fdrii a zabr\u00e1nit tomu, aby se islamist\u00e9 bojuj\u00edc\u00ed v S\u00fdrii z b\u00fdval\u00fdch sov\u011btsk\u00fdch republik vraceli do Ruska a jeho sousedn\u00edch zem\u00ed jako zku\u0161en\u00ed v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00edci, pak mus\u00ed se vypo\u0159\u00e1dat s novou situac\u00ed a novou syrskou vl\u00e1dou.<\/span><\/p>\n

A tady vstupuje do hry Erdogan. Te\u010f samoz\u0159ejm\u011b spekuluji, ale je vylou\u010den\u00e9, \u017ee Erdogan informoval Putina o chystan\u00e9m \u00fatoku a jeho nevyhnuteln\u00e9m \u00fasp\u011bchu a nab\u00eddl Rusku, aby Turecko dojednalo s novou syrskou vl\u00e1dou dohodu, kter\u00e1 by do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry zachr\u00e1nila rusk\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy v S\u00fdrii? St\u011b\u017eejn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy Ruska v S\u00fdrii jsou ostatn\u011b docela skromn\u00e9: chce si udr\u017eet sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny a zabr\u00e1nit terorist\u016fm ze S\u00fdrie v pronik\u00e1n\u00ed do postsov\u011btsk\u00e9ho prostoru.<\/span><\/p>\n

Erdogan demonstruje svou moc<\/span><\/h3>\n

Turecko otev\u0159en\u011b d\u00e1v\u00e1 najevo, \u017ee v S\u00fdrii nyn\u00ed de facto vel\u00ed a \u017ee bez Turecka se tam nem\u016f\u017ee nic st\u00e1t. Ibrahim Kal\u0131n, \u0161\u00e9f tureck\u00e9 tajn\u00e9 slu\u017eby MIT, nav\u0161t\u00edvil Dama\u0161ek 12. prosince, \u010dty\u0159i dny po p\u00e1du Asada, a 22. prosince byl\u00a0<\/span>tureck\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Fidan prvn\u00edm zahrani\u010dn\u00edm vrcholn\u00fdm politikem, kter\u00fd odcestoval do nov\u00e9 syrsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a setkal se jeho hlava USA na jeho hlavu vypsaly milionovou odm\u011bnu a kdo se poslu\u0161n\u011b nechal vyfotit s Fidanem v obleku.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy bylo ozn\u00e1meno znovuotev\u0159en\u00ed tureck\u00e9 ambas\u00e1dy v Dama\u0161ku ao den pozd\u011bji\u00a0<\/span>Erdogan prohl\u00e1sil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee jsou v \u00fazk\u00e9m kontaktu s nov\u00fdmi vl\u00e1dci v S\u00fdrii a \u017ee u\u017e pl\u00e1nuje\u00a0<\/span>n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvu Dama\u0161ku<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Erdogan tak\u00e9 ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee Turecko chce S\u00fdrii pomoci\u00a0<\/span>vybudovat 300tis\u00edcovou arm\u00e1du<\/span><\/a>\u00a0za rok nebo rok a p\u016fl , aby se nov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da mohla br\u00e1nit v\u0161em hrozb\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pot\u011b\u0161\u00ed Erdogan Trumpa?<\/span><\/h3>\n

USA ji\u017e \u0159adu let v rozporu s mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm pr\u00e1vem okupuj\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti severov\u00fdchodn\u00ed S\u00fdrie, kde se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed syrsk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 vrty, kter\u00e9 t\u011b\u017e\u00ed a ropu prod\u00e1vaj\u00ed ofici\u00e1ln\u011b nezn\u00e1m\u00fdm kupc\u016fm p\u0159es Ir\u00e1k. Syr\u0161t\u00ed Kurdov\u00e9 \u017eij\u00ed tak\u00e9 v oblasti spadaj\u00edc\u00ed pod YPG, dce\u0159inou spole\u010dnost teroristick\u00e9 organizace Kurdsk\u00e1 strana pracuj\u00edc\u00edch (PKK), kter\u00e1 ost\u0159e bojuje proti Turecku. Skute\u010dnost, \u017ee USA podporuj\u00ed Erdoganovy \u00fahlavn\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1tele, je ji\u017e l\u00e9ta zdrojem konflikt\u016f mezi Tureckem a USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zvolen\u00fd americk\u00fd prezident Trump cht\u011bl v roce 2019 st\u00e1hnout americk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky ze S\u00fdrie, to se v\u0161ak nepoda\u0159ilo kv\u016fli odporu Pentagonu, kter\u00fd \u2013 mimochodem \u2013 hodn\u011b vypov\u00edd\u00e1 o tom, kdo m\u00e1 v USA skute\u010dn\u011b moc: prezident nebo deep state sest\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed sehran\u00e9ho byrokratick\u00e9ho apar\u00e1tu, kter\u00fd v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b pot\u0159eby br\u00e1n\u00ed prezidentovi v rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed, pokud se n\u011bkter\u00fdm kruh\u016fm v USA nel\u00edb\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

S Trumpov\u00fdm n\u00e1vratem do B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu se proto Erdogan m\u016f\u017ee c\u00edtit povzbuzen, aby zas\u00e1hl proti YPG, co\u017e by Trumpovi poskytlo dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1minku pro sta\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch jednotek ze S\u00fdrie, proto\u017ee S\u00fdrie samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nen\u00ed naklon\u011bna vojensk\u00e9 konfrontaci s Zem\u011b NATO jako Turecko stoj\u00ed za to. Trump m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt dokonce Erdoganovi vd\u011b\u010dn\u00fd za omluvu pro sta\u017een\u00ed americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, proto\u017ee byl v\u017edy proti americk\u00e9 anga\u017eovanosti v S\u00fdrii.<\/span><\/p>\n

V d\u016fsledku toho nen\u00ed p\u0159ekvapiv\u00e9, \u017ee tureck\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>m\u00e9dia 24. prosince informovala<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee Turecko by mohlo podniknout vojenskou akci proti PKK, a \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>Erdogan 25. prosince prohl\u00e1sil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eJsme odhodl\u00e1ni rozlo\u017eit teroristick\u00e9 organizace v S\u00fdrii, zejm\u00e9na ISIS a Kurdskou stranu pracuj\u00edc\u00edch, kter\u00e9 ohro\u017euj\u00ed p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed obou na\u0161ich zem\u00ed. Tito separatisti\u010dt\u00ed zlo\u010dinci se bu\u010f sami vzdaj\u00ed sv\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, nebo s nimi budou poh\u0159beni na syrsk\u00e9 p\u016fd\u011b. Zni\u010d\u00edme teroristickou organizaci, kter\u00e1 se sna\u017e\u00ed vybudovat krvavou ze\u010f mezi n\u00e1mi a na\u0161imi kurdsk\u00fdmi bratry.“<\/em><\/p>\n

Pokra\u010doval t\u00edm, \u017ee teroristick\u00e9 skupiny v S\u00fdrii byly \u201ezdrojem hrozby pro S\u00fdrii, Ir\u00e1k a Turecko,\u201c dodal:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eJedin\u00fd \u010dlen NATO, kter\u00fd s nimi bojuje v boji zbl\u00edzka, je Turecko. A v tomto \u00fasil\u00ed se nesm\u00edme nechat omezovat. Na\u0161\u00edm jedin\u00fdm c\u00edlem je p\u0159in\u00e9st m\u00edr, klid a stabilitu do ka\u017ed\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti na\u0161eho regionu, po\u010d\u00ednaje S\u00fdri\u00ed. Pro jin\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt bezpe\u010dnost a m\u00edr v S\u00fdrii druho\u0159ad\u00e9. Nem\u016f\u017eeme si dovolit takto uva\u017eovat, proto\u017ee m\u00e1me 900 kilometr\u016f dlouhou hranici se S\u00fdri\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

Naivita Kurd\u016f<\/span><\/h3>\n

Ot\u00e1zkou nyn\u00ed bude, zda se Kurdov\u00e9 podvol\u00ed, nebo se pust\u00ed do boje a jak se zachovaj\u00ed USA, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed v regionu sv\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky a dosud fungovaly jako ochrann\u00e1 mocnost Kurd\u016f. Lze si p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee Erdogan po\u010dk\u00e1 se sv\u00fdm \u00fatokem a\u017e po Trumpov\u011b inauguraci, aby nedal Bidenov\u011b vl\u00e1d\u011b p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost naru\u0161it Erdoganovy pl\u00e1ny a postavit Trumpovi do cesty dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kurdov\u00e9 sn\u00ed o vlastn\u00edm st\u00e1t\u011b ji\u017e v\u00edce ne\u017e sto let a st\u00e1le se p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u011bj\u00ed k USA a Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii. B\u011bhem prvn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky byly pou\u017eity z\u00e1padn\u00edmi mocnostmi proti Osmansk\u00e9 \u0159\u00ed\u0161i, po v\u00e1lce v\u0161ak nez\u00edskaly vlastn\u00ed st\u00e1t. Bylo tomu tak znovu a znovu, a\u0165 u\u017e p\u0159ed n\u011bkolika des\u00edtkami let pom\u00e1hali USA proti Husajnovi v Ir\u00e1ku nebo nyn\u00ed proti Asadovi. Nakonec byli Kurdov\u00e9 v\u017edy ponech\u00e1ni sv\u00e9mu osudu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b tomu bude i tentokr\u00e1t, ale zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Kurdov\u00e9 se ze sv\u00e9 minulosti nic nepou\u010d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thomas R\u00f6per<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tureck\u00fd prezident Erdogan jasn\u011b ukazuje, \u017ee nov\u00e9 syrsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dce skute\u010dn\u011b podporuje. Co m\u016f\u017eeme uzav\u0159\u00edt o…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":61719,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,56,22,147,55],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68983"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68983"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68983\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68983"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68983"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68983"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}