{"id":68578,"date":"2024-12-21T00:32:28","date_gmt":"2024-12-20T23:32:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=68578"},"modified":"2024-12-20T14:01:13","modified_gmt":"2024-12-20T13:01:13","slug":"ted-snider-vymente-iran-za-al-kaidu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/21\/ted-snider-vymente-iran-za-al-kaidu\/","title":{"rendered":"Ted Snider: Vym\u011b\u0148te \u00cdr\u00e1n za Al-K\u00e1idu"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a jejich partne\u0159i na politick\u00e9m Z\u00e1pad\u011b se obr\u00e1tili na star\u00e9 po\u0159ekadlo: \u201eLep\u0161\u00ed \u010f\u00e1bel, kter\u00e9ho zn\u00e1\u0161\u201c, p\u0159ijali \u010f\u00e1bla, kter\u00e9ho neznaj\u00ed. V S\u00fdrii vym\u011bnili \u00cdr\u00e1n za Al-K\u00e1idu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e padl Ba\u0161\u00e1r al-Asad, bylo posti\u017eeno mnoho jeho mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch partner\u016f. Nikdo ale nebyl zasa\u017een tak siln\u011b jako \u00cdr\u00e1n. \u00cdr\u00e1n nebyl schopen vojensky konkurovat sv\u00fdm mnohem l\u00e9pe vyzbrojen\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u016fm a spol\u00e9hal se na \u0159adu region\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1stupc\u016f. Tato p\u0159edn\u00ed linie obrany a odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed nyn\u00ed zmizela.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jestli\u017ee byl Hizball\u00e1h srdcem z\u00e1stupn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, S\u00fdrie byla logistick\u00fdm mostem mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Libanonem, na kter\u00e9m z\u00e1visela. \u00da\u010dinnost Hizball\u00e1hu z\u00e1visela na bezpe\u010dnosti S\u00fdrie. S\u00fdrie byla mostem, p\u0159es kter\u00fd proudily \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 zbran\u011b do Libanonu. Tento most je nyn\u00ed rozbit\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n siln\u011b spol\u00e9hal na vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny a tov\u00e1rny na rakety v S\u00fdrii, kter\u00e9 jsou nyn\u00ed v\u0161echny ztraceny. Byli ztraceni jak politicky, tak fyzicky. Politicky jsou ztraceni, proto\u017ee nov\u00ed vl\u00e1dci v S\u00fdrii, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), p\u0159\u00edsahali nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed v\u016f\u010di \u00cdr\u00e1nu. V\u016fdce HTS Abu Mohammad al-Jolani ve sv\u00e9m v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00e9m projevu \u0159ekl, \u017ee Asad prom\u011bnil S\u00fdrii v \u201eh\u0159i\u0161t\u011b pro \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ambice\u201c. Jakmile byl Dama\u0161ek dobyt, \u00edr\u00e1nskou ambas\u00e1du za\u00fato\u010dili syr\u0161t\u00ed rebelov\u00e9. Al-Jolani \u0159ekl: \u201eJsme otev\u0159eni p\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed s ka\u017ed\u00fdm v regionu \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b Izraele. Nem\u00e1me \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1tele krom\u011b Asadova re\u017eimu, Hizball\u00e1hu a \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jsou fyzicky ztraceni, proto\u017ee beze zbytku protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany stovky n\u00e1let\u016f zlikvidovaly prakticky v\u0161echny vojensk\u00e9 struktury a zbran\u011b v S\u00fdrii a zajistily bezzub\u00fd nov\u00fd re\u017eim. Izrael varoval: „Pokud nov\u00fd re\u017eim v S\u00fdrii dovol\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1nu, aby se znovu usadil, nebo povol\u00ed p\u0159ed\u00e1n\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch zbran\u00ed Hizball\u00e1hu, odpov\u00edme d\u016frazn\u011b a vy\u017e\u00e1d\u00e1me si vysokou cenu.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Asad byl nev\u00fdkonn\u00fd a brut\u00e1ln\u00ed dikt\u00e1tor. Nakonec padl, z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti proto, \u017ee ztratil podporu sv\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy a sv\u00e9ho lidu. Syrsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da nebyla p\u0159ipravena zem\u0159\u00edt, aby zachr\u00e1nila Asada. Ale Assad byl vym\u011bn\u011bn za al-K\u00e1idu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u016fdce HTS Abu Mohammad al-Jolani za\u010dal svou kari\u00e9ru v radik\u00e1ln\u00ed opozici jako bojovn\u00edk a \u010dlen al-K\u00e1idy v Ir\u00e1ku, ne\u017e se stal zakladatelem fronty al-Nusra, syrsk\u00e9 odno\u017ee al-K\u00e1idy. V roce 2016 Jolani tvrdil, \u017ee p\u0159eru\u0161il sv\u00e9 styky s al-K\u00e1idou. Je v\u0161ak pova\u017eov\u00e1n za pragmatick\u00e9ho radik\u00e1la a odtr\u017een\u00ed bylo v t\u00e9 dob\u011b v\u00edt\u00e1no s velkou skeps\u00ed. USA uv\u00e1d\u00ed HTS jako zahrani\u010dn\u00ed teroristickou organizaci a ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed nab\u00eddlo odm\u011bnu 10 milion\u016f dolar\u016f za informace vedouc\u00ed k dopaden\u00ed Jolani.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od t\u00e9 doby Jolani prodal svou reformaci Z\u00e1padu. Sl\u00edbil, \u017ee nebude prov\u00e1d\u011bt teroristick\u00e9 \u00fatoky proti Z\u00e1padu a nebude prov\u00e1d\u011bt odvetn\u00e9 masakry v S\u00fdrii. Kdy\u017e vl\u00e1dl syrsk\u00e9 provincii Idlib, nenutil \u017eeny nosit pln\u00e9 z\u00e1voje a neprov\u00e1d\u011bl masakry ve stylu ISIS. Ale vl\u00e1dl autokraticky a konzervativn\u011b a rozdrtil sv\u00e9 rebelsk\u00e9 soupe\u0159e. Byl obvin\u011bn ze \u0161patn\u00e9ho zach\u00e1zen\u00ed s disidenty zp\u016fsobem, kter\u00fd OSN klasifikovala jako v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd zlo\u010din. Zpr\u00e1va Agentury Evropsk\u00e9 unie pro azyl ze z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2020 podrobn\u011b popisuje zpr\u00e1vy o \u201ev\u00e1\u017en\u00e9m poru\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed lidsk\u00fdch pr\u00e1v, v\u010detn\u011b obt\u011b\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed, zab\u00edjen\u00ed, \u00fanos\u016f a mu\u010den\u00ed, jako\u017e i nez\u00e1konn\u00e9ho zadr\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed civilist\u016f\u201c ze strany HTS b\u011bhem jeho vl\u00e1dy v Idlibu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zb\u00fdv\u00e1 zjistit, zda lze v\u011b\u0159it Jolanin\u00fdm tvrzen\u00edm o zr\u00e1n\u00ed a zm\u011bn\u011b. U\u017e se objevuj\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy o tom, \u017ee ozbrojen\u00ed bojovn\u00edci popravuj\u00ed v\u011brn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee S\u00fdrie prohr\u00e1la ve prosp\u011bch \u00cdr\u00e1nu a z\u00e1stupn\u00e1 obrann\u00e1 politika se rozpad\u00e1, bude \u00cdr\u00e1n nucen naj\u00edt novou bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed strategii. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee se mu otev\u00edraj\u00ed dv\u011b mo\u017en\u00e9 cesty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed by bylo ud\u011blat posledn\u00ed, v\u00e1hav\u00fd krok k v\u00fdvoji atomov\u00e9 bomby. \u00cdr\u00e1n ale v\u017edy tuto cestu z n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdch a mor\u00e1ln\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f vylu\u010doval, po\u010d\u00ednaje zakladatelem \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky, ajatoll\u00e1hem Ruholl\u00e1hem Chomejn\u00edm. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed v\u016fdce ajatoll\u00e1h Al\u00ed Chamene\u00ed toto rozhodnut\u00ed opakovan\u011b zopakoval. Chamene\u00ed trv\u00e1 na tom, \u017ee \u201ez ideologick\u00e9ho a fiqhi [isl\u00e1msk\u00e9ho jurisprudence] perspektivy pova\u017eujeme v\u00fdvoj jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed za nez\u00e1konn\u00fd. Pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed takov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed pova\u017eujeme za velk\u00fd h\u0159\u00edch.\u201c V roce 2003 vydal ajatoll\u00e1h Chamene\u00ed fatwu, kter\u00e1 prohl\u00e1sila jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b za zak\u00e1zan\u00e9 isl\u00e1mem.<\/span><\/p>\n

A Chamene\u00ed nebyl ani odpadl\u00edk, ani v\u00fdjimka: \u201eV t\u00e9to ot\u00e1zce panuje naprost\u00e1 shoda,\u201c \u0159ekl velk\u00fd ajatoll\u00e1h Jusef Saanei, jeden z nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch duchovn\u00edch. \u201eV isl\u00e1mu je samoz\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee je zak\u00e1z\u00e1no m\u00edt jadern\u00e9 bomby. To je v\u011b\u010dn\u00fd z\u00e1kon, proto\u017ee z\u00e1kladn\u00ed funkc\u00ed t\u011bchto zbran\u00ed je zab\u00edjet nevinn\u00e9 lidi. Toto nelze vr\u00e1tit zp\u011bt.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee tato cesta je pro \u00cdr\u00e1n blokov\u00e1na jak isl\u00e1mskou judikaturou, tak skute\u010dnost\u00ed, \u017ee USA by takov\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed velmi brzy uznaly a drasticky by je zastavily.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento probl\u00e9m se v\u0161ak pro \u00cdr\u00e1n rychle st\u00e1v\u00e1 existen\u010dn\u00edm a zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad je ochoten \u00cdr\u00e1n vyzvat a marginalizovat ho.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zb\u00fdv\u00e1 tedy pouze jedna pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1 cesta. \u00cdr\u00e1n by se mohl vydat konven\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed cestou a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed obrann\u00e9 schopnosti. K tomu by se asi d\u016frazn\u011bji obr\u00e1til na Rusko a \u010c\u00ednu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sm\u016fla je, \u017ee nic z toho se nem\u011blo st\u00e1t. Jak u\u017e to tak b\u00fdv\u00e1, pokud by USA cht\u011bly odd\u011blit S\u00fdrii od \u00cdr\u00e1nu, diplomacie mohla b\u00fdt \u00fa\u010dinn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e agrese. B\u00fdvaly doby, kdy toto diplomatick\u00e9 okno bylo otev\u0159en\u00e9, pokud Z\u00e1pad neprome\u0161kal p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od prvn\u00edch let sv\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy d\u00e1val Asad najevo, \u017ee chce vztah se Z\u00e1padem. Tehdej\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edseda v\u00fdboru pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vztahy John Kerry se vr\u00e1til ze sch\u016fzky s Asadem a prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Asad se chce anga\u017eovat se Z\u00e1padem…Asad je p\u0159ipraven ud\u011blat v\u011bci, kter\u00e9 mus\u00ed ud\u011blat, aby zlep\u0161il sv\u00e9 vztahy se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty. zm\u011bnit.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed toho, co S\u00fdrie pot\u0159ebovala ud\u011blat pro zlep\u0161en\u00ed sv\u00fdch vztah\u016f se Z\u00e1padem, bylo distancovat se od \u00cdr\u00e1nu, Asad se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt dokonce ochoten to ud\u011blat. Jerome Slater, profesor politologie, uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee v roce 2006 \u0159ekli vysoc\u00ed syr\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 izraelsk\u00fdm novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm, \u017ee S\u00fdrie se v r\u00e1mci m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohody distancuje od \u00cdr\u00e1nu. V \u010dervenci 2008, \u0159ekl Slater, hlavn\u00ed izraelsk\u00fd vyjednava\u010d \u0159ekl, \u017ee Asad je \u201est\u00e1le otev\u0159en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00e9 dohod\u011b s Izraelem, kter\u00e1 by mohla v\u00fdrazn\u011b oslabit vliv \u00cdr\u00e1nu na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1pad se odvr\u00e1til a prop\u00e1sl p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost diplomaticky distancovat S\u00fdrii od \u00cdr\u00e1nu. M\u00edsto toho vym\u011bnili \u00cdr\u00e1n za al-K\u00e1idu.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a jejich partne\u0159i na politick\u00e9m Z\u00e1pad\u011b se obr\u00e1tili na star\u00e9 po\u0159ekadlo: \u201eLep\u0161\u00ed \u010f\u00e1bel,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":68579,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[2944,38,147,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68578"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68578"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68578\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":68580,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68578\/revisions\/68580"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68579"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68578"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68578"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68578"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}