{"id":68520,"date":"2024-12-20T00:40:14","date_gmt":"2024-12-19T23:40:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=68520"},"modified":"2024-12-19T15:38:18","modified_gmt":"2024-12-19T14:38:18","slug":"anatol-lieven-evropsti-mirotvorci-na-ukrajine-strasna-predstava","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/20\/anatol-lieven-evropsti-mirotvorci-na-ukrajine-strasna-predstava\/","title":{"rendered":"Anatol Lieven: Evrop\u0161t\u00ed \u201em\u00edrotvorci\u201c na Ukrajin\u011b? Stra\u0161n\u00e1 p\u0159edstava"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Trump a dal\u0161\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i o pl\u00e1nu \u00fadajn\u011b diskutovali, ale jde o experiment\u00e1ln\u00ed bal\u00f3n, kter\u00fd by se nem\u011bl dostat daleko od zem\u011b<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Zvolen\u00fd americk\u00fd prezident Trump chce \u00fadajn\u011b vyslat na Ukrajinu po\u010detn\u00e9 a t\u011b\u017ece vyzbrojen\u00e9 m\u00edrov\u00e9 s\u00edly z Evropy (ale i z \u010dlen\u016f NATO), aby tam dos\u00e1hli m\u00edrov\u00e9ho urovn\u00e1n\u00ed. Je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9, aby tato velmi \u0161patn\u011b koncipovan\u00e1 my\u0161lenka byla zavr\u017eena d\u0159\u00edve, ne\u017e v\u00e1\u017en\u011b po\u0161kod\u00ed vyhl\u00eddky na brzk\u00fd m\u00edr a zp\u016fsob\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce lidsk\u00fdch, ekonomick\u00fdch a \u00fazemn\u00edch ztr\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

Jak uv\u00e1d\u00ed Wall Street Journal a Le Monde, n\u00e1pad se poprv\u00e9 objevil b\u011bhem soukrom\u00fdch diskus\u00ed mezi francouzsk\u00fdmi a britsk\u00fdmi p\u0159edstaviteli v listopadu. Ve \u010dtvrtek o tom v Bruselu jednali minist\u0159i zahrani\u010d\u00ed NATO. Trump n\u00e1vrh p\u0159edlo\u017eil francouzsk\u00e9mu prezidentovi Emmanuelu Macronovi a ukrajinsk\u00e9mu prezidentovi Volodymyru Zelensk\u00e9mu na sch\u016fzce v Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei 7. prosince.<\/p>\n

Macron pot\u00e9 odcestoval do Var\u0161avy, aby s polskou vl\u00e1dou projednal pl\u00e1n na 40 000 t\u011b\u017ece ozbrojen\u00fdch evropsk\u00fdch \u201em\u00edrotvorc\u016f\u201c, kter\u00fd byl dosud polsk\u00fdmi \u00fa\u0159ady p\u0159ijat chladn\u011b. Slovy polsk\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra Donalda Tuska: \u201eAby se zastavily spekulace o mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edtomnosti t\u00e9 \u010di on\u00e9 zem\u011b na Ukrajin\u011b po dosa\u017een\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u2026 rozhodnut\u00ed t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se Polska budou p\u0159ij\u00edm\u00e1na ve Var\u0161av\u011b a pouze ve Var\u0161av\u011b. V tuto chv\u00edli takov\u00e9 aktivity nepl\u00e1nujeme.\u201c<\/p>\n

Od n\u00e1padu se distancoval i Friedrich Merz z n\u011bmeck\u00fdch k\u0159es\u0165ansk\u00fdch demokrat\u016f, kter\u00fd se po \u00fanorov\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b stane kancl\u00e9\u0159em.<\/p>\n

Na prvn\u00ed pohled se zd\u00e1, \u017ee tato my\u0161lenka uv\u00e1d\u00ed do souladu n\u011bkolik protich\u016fdn\u00fdch tlak\u016f na ukrajinsk\u00fd m\u00edrov\u00fd proces: rusk\u00fd po\u017eadavek na smlouvu, kter\u00e1 trvale vylu\u010duje Ukrajinu z \u010dlenstv\u00ed v NATO; ukrajinsk\u00fd po\u017eadavek na z\u00e1padn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky proti budouc\u00ed rusk\u00e9 agresi; Trumpovo odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed nerozm\u00edstit americk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky na zemi ani nep\u0159ijmout dal\u0161\u00ed a pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed z\u00e1vazky USA v\u016f\u010di Ukrajin\u011b; a skute\u010dn\u00e1 pot\u0159eba velk\u00e9 mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed s\u00edly k monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed linie p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Je tu jen jeden probl\u00e9m: Podle v\u0161ech rusk\u00fdch \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edk\u016f a expert\u016f, se kter\u00fdmi jsme mluvili s m\u00fdmi kolegy (naposledy ve \u010dtvrtek), je my\u0161lenka z\u00e1padn\u00edch jednotek na Ukrajin\u011b pro ruskou vl\u00e1du a establishment stejn\u011b nep\u0159ijateln\u00e1 jako NATO. Samotn\u00e1 Ukrajina Ve skute\u010dnosti mezi nimi Rusov\u00e9 nevid\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd v\u00fdznamn\u00fd rozd\u00edl.<\/p>\n

Z pohledu Moskvy by takov\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u201em\u00edrov\u00e9 s\u00edly\u201c byly prost\u011b p\u0159edvojem NATO, kter\u00fd by slou\u017eil jako z\u00e1st\u011brka pro postupn\u00e9 zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed dal\u0161\u00edch a dal\u0161\u00edch jednotek NATO. Zat\u00edmco prezident Zelenskij prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee Ukrajina \u201eby mohla zv\u00e1\u017eit\u201c my\u0161lenku m\u00edrov\u00fdch sil, u\u010dinila by tak pouze tehdy, pokud by j\u00ed byl tak\u00e9 d\u00e1n jasn\u00fd harmonogram budouc\u00edho \u010dlenstv\u00ed v NATO. Pokud tento n\u00e1vrh p\u0159edlo\u017e\u00ed p\u0159i vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed gener\u00e1l Kellogg, zvolen\u00fd vyslanec prezidenta Trumpa na Ukrajin\u011b, rusk\u00e1 strana ho okam\u017eit\u011b odm\u00edtne; a pokud se na tom bude trvat, rozhovory sel\u017eou.<\/p>\n

Je v\u0161ak pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee jakmile evropsk\u00e9 instituce \u2013 a obyvatel\u00e9 \u2013 budou m\u00edt \u010das tuto my\u0161lenku zv\u00e1\u017eit, ve skute\u010dnosti ji opust\u00ed. Voj\u00e1ci v t\u00e9to s\u00edle by se vystavovali zna\u010dn\u00e9mu nebezpe\u010d\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by jejich spoluob\u010dan\u00e9 jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed tolerovali. Kdy\u017e Macron po\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto roku poprv\u00e9 navrhoval francouzsk\u00e9 voj\u00e1ky pro Ukrajinu, francouzsk\u00e9 pr\u016fzkumy byly v\u011bt\u0161inou proti t\u00e9to my\u0161lence.<\/p>\n

Nebezpe\u010d\u00ed by m\u011blo b\u00fdt ve skute\u010dnosti z\u0159ejm\u00e9. Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b by Ukrajinci, odhodlan\u00ed z\u00edskat zp\u011bt ztracen\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed Ukrajiny vyprovokov\u00e1n\u00edm p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 v\u00e1lky mezi NATO a Ruskem, m\u011bli v\u0161echny d\u016fvody k vyvol\u00e1n\u00ed ozbrojen\u00fdch konflikt\u016f, do kter\u00fdch by byli zata\u017eeni z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u201em\u00edrotvorci\u201c.<\/p>\n

Na druhou stranu, pokud by Moskva skute\u010dn\u011b cht\u011bla otestovat NATO a vyu\u017e\u00edt budouc\u00edch vnit\u0159n\u00edch rozd\u011blen\u00ed na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, jak\u00fd lep\u0161\u00ed zp\u016fsob, jak to ud\u011blat, ne\u017e vyhro\u017eovat \u201em\u00edrotvorc\u016fm\u201c NATO na Ukrajin\u011b sp\u00ed\u0161e ne\u017e na \u00fazem\u00ed NATO, to nespad\u00e1 pod \u010cl\u00e1nek 5 NATO? Existuje bu\u010f hlubok\u00e1 kognitivn\u00ed disonance, nebo hlubok\u00e1 ne\u010destnost, kdy\u017e z\u00e1padn\u00ed jest\u0159\u00e1bi varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed p\u0159edpokl\u00e1danou budouc\u00ed ruskou hrozbou otestovat odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed NATO v Pobalt\u00ed, zat\u00edmco nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko m\u00e1 mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed a v\u011brohodn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost to ud\u011blat na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n

Za t\u011bchto okolnost\u00ed je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee k tomu, aby evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a jejich vojen\u0161t\u00ed \u0161\u00e9fov\u00e9 souhlasili s takov\u00fdm n\u00e1vrhem, by pot\u0159ebovali od Trumpovy administrativy pevn\u00e9 a ve\u0159ejn\u00e9 z\u00e1ruky, \u017ee americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da zas\u00e1hne v pln\u00e9 s\u00edle, aby zachr\u00e1nila jejich \u201e m\u00edrov\u00fdch jednotek\u201c, pokud by byli napadeni Ruskem.<\/p>\n

To by znamenalo p\u0159esn\u011b ten druh z\u00e1vazku v\u016f\u010di Ukrajin\u011b a mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u00e1lce s Ruskem, kter\u00e9mu se Trump a vysoce postaven\u00ed \u010dlenov\u00e9 jeho t\u00fdmu zoufale sna\u017e\u00ed vyhnout. V \u010dl\u00e1nku Journal se p\u00ed\u0161e: \u201eFrancouz\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 dali jasn\u011b najevo, \u017ee tato my\u0161lenka by vy\u017eadovala ur\u010dit\u00fd druh podpory USA, co\u017e by Trumpova administrativa pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nezva\u017eovala.<\/p>\n

Tyto faktory nejsou ani nejasn\u00e9, ani t\u011b\u017eko pochopiteln\u00e9. I kdy\u017e jde jen o experiment\u00e1ln\u00ed bal\u00f3nek, je evidentn\u011b pln\u00fd d\u011br a fakt, \u017ee se dok\u00e1zal vzn\u00e1\u0161et i p\u00e1r metr\u016f nad zem\u00ed, je proto znepokojuj\u00edc\u00ed. Vznik t\u00e9to my\u0161lenky nazna\u010duje, \u017ee Trump a z\u00fa\u010dastn\u011bn\u00e9 evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy obdr\u017eely od sv\u00fdch poradc\u016f vysoce nep\u0159esn\u00e9 informace o z\u00e1sadn\u00edch rusk\u00fdch pozic\u00edch. To nazna\u010duje bu\u010f extr\u00e9mn\u011b \u0161patnou inteligenci, nebo to, \u017ee doty\u010dn\u00ed poradci se z\u00e1m\u011brn\u011b sna\u017e\u00ed zni\u010dit m\u00edrovou dohodu. V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nejde o p\u0159\u00e1tele Ukrajiny, proto\u017ee v\u0161e nasv\u011bd\u010duje tomu, \u017ee \u010d\u00edm d\u00e9le bude tato v\u00e1lka pokra\u010dovat, situace Ukrajiny se bude zhor\u0161ovat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Trump a dal\u0161\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i o pl\u00e1nu \u00fadajn\u011b diskutovali, ale jde o experiment\u00e1ln\u00ed bal\u00f3n, kter\u00fd by…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":68521,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[39,452,26,321],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68520"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68520"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68520\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":68522,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68520\/revisions\/68522"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68521"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68520"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68520"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68520"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}