{"id":68368,"date":"2024-12-18T00:35:43","date_gmt":"2024-12-17T23:35:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=68368"},"modified":"2024-12-17T16:33:21","modified_gmt":"2024-12-17T15:33:21","slug":"byvaly-analytik-cia-ukrajina-a-syrie-zapadni-plan-selze","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/18\/byvaly-analytik-cia-ukrajina-a-syrie-zapadni-plan-selze\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00fdval\u00fd analytik CIA: Ukrajina a S\u00fdrie, z\u00e1padn\u00ed pl\u00e1n sel\u017ee"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Triumf\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u00e9torika v kulo\u00e1rech Washingtonu, DC, oslavuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u00e1d syrsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy jako velk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nad Ruskem, je po\u0161etil\u00e1 a kr\u00e1tkozrak\u00e1 a hned vysv\u011btl\u00edm.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Za\u010dn\u011bme situac\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b. Mezi z\u00e1padn\u00edmi v\u016fdci panuje atmosf\u00e9ra zoufalstv\u00ed a paniky, kdy\u017e sleduj\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd kolaps p\u0159es palubu a hledaj\u00ed strategii, jak odvr\u00e1tit ukrajinskou por\u00e1\u017eku. Praktick\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed ale neexistuje. Rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 operace zasahuj\u00edc\u00ed do d\u0159\u00edve d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9ho logistick\u00e9ho centra Pokrovsk jsou symbolem katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed situace, kter\u00e9 Ukrajinci \u010del\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u00e1d Pokrovska (ukrajinsk\u00fd n\u00e1zev pro Krasnoarmejsk \u2013 pozn. red.) pod n\u00e1porem rusk\u00fdch vojsk je pro Ukrajinu nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017ekou za posledn\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edce a zt\u00ed\u017e\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b p\u0159ekon\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed pot\u00ed\u017e\u00ed, zat\u00edmco rusk\u00e9 jednotky \u010del\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm probl\u00e9m\u016fm Vyvi\u0148te tlak,\u201c CNN zpr\u00e1vy<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Po\u010det ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f se neust\u00e1le zvy\u0161uje \u2013 jen za posledn\u00ed t\u00fdden jich bylo zabito v\u00edce ne\u017e 12 000. Ukrajinsk\u00e1 demografie nenab\u00edz\u00ed sch\u016fdn\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed, jak vyrobit bojovn\u00e9 mu\u017ee, kte\u0159\u00ed by nahradili padl\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Simplicius cituje ned\u00e1vnou\u00a0zpr\u00e1vu\u00a0<\/span>BBC\u00a0<\/span><\/em>popisuj\u00edc\u00ed dilema<\/span><\/a><\/em>\u00a0:<\/span><\/p>\n

Probl\u00e9m je v tom, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>nov\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nek BBC<\/span><\/a><\/strong>\u00a0uv\u00e1d\u00ed zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed datov\u00fd bod: \u017ee na Ukrajin\u011b je ve skute\u010dnosti velmi m\u00e1lo lid\u00ed mlad\u0161\u00edch 25 let, proto\u017ee v 90. letech do\u0161lo k prudk\u00e9mu poklesu porodnosti. Ji\u017e jsme zde o tom informovali, ale v podstat\u011b to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee kohorta mu\u017e\u016f narozen\u00fdch od poloviny do konce 90. let je velmi mal\u00e1 ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se star\u0161\u00edmi skupinami.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

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I kdyby Ukrajina m\u011bla \u017eivotaschopnou skupinu potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch z\u00e1lo\u017en\u00edk\u016f, nem\u00e1 infrastrukturu a \u010das pot\u0159ebn\u00fd k efektivn\u00edmu v\u00fdcviku nov\u00fdch rekrut\u016f \u2013 to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159ed vysl\u00e1n\u00edm nov\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f na frontu by m\u011bli m\u00edt alespo\u0148 \u0161est m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f v\u00fdcviku. V\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fd graf odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159es\u00fdpac\u00ed hodiny je trefnou metaforou \u2013 ukrajinsk\u00e1 pracovn\u00ed s\u00edla miz\u00ed stabiln\u00edm tempem a neexistuje zp\u016fsob, jak tento trend zvr\u00e1tit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed se dost\u00e1v\u00e1m k situaci v S\u00fdrii. S ka\u017ed\u00fdm dal\u0161\u00edm dnem jsem v\u00edc a v\u00edc p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee Putin m\u011bl dobr\u00e9 informace o z\u00e1padn\u00edm pl\u00e1nu na odstran\u011bn\u00ed Asada a na z\u00e1klad\u011b informac\u00ed \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b poskytnut\u00fdch \u010c\u00ednou spr\u00e1vn\u011b vyhodnotil, \u017ee Turecko a Z\u00e1pad se poserou kv\u016fli Asadovu odm\u00edtnut\u00ed poslouchat ru\u0161tinu a \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 rada. Ani jeden nebyl p\u0159ipraven \u010delit n\u00e1sledk\u016fm rychl\u00e9ho syrsk\u00e9ho kolapsu. Domn\u00edv\u00e1m se, \u017ee Putin spr\u00e1vn\u011b spo\u010d\u00edtal, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad a Turecko p\u00e1chaj\u00ed v S\u00fdrii zmatek, kter\u00fd nemohou ani kontrolovat, ani omezit. Zat\u00edmco Rusko mohlo vojensky zas\u00e1hnout a porazit HTS a jej\u00ed tureck\u00e9\/z\u00e1padn\u00ed podporovatele, Putin a jeho poradci byli p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010deni, \u017ee se to nakonec uk\u00e1\u017ee jako no\u010dn\u00ed m\u016fra pro Turecko a Z\u00e1pad, a Rusko je do toho r\u00e1do pustilo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zeptal jsem se bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edtele a odborn\u00edka v regionu, zda jsem se ve sv\u00e9m hodnocen\u00ed nem\u00fdlil? Odpov\u011bd\u011bl mi:<\/span><\/p>\n

Ano, v celku je to spr\u00e1vn\u011b. Rusko v\u011bd\u011blo, \u017ee Asad byl p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, \u017ee by se mohl normalizovat se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00edm se Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed a Spojen\u00fdmi arabsk\u00fdmi emir\u00e1ty, zat\u00edmco S\u00fdrie se propadala do zoufal\u00e9 frustrace, proto\u017ee jej\u00ed veden\u00ed a arm\u00e1da se zkorumpovaly, koupily a byly neschopn\u00e9. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b Rusko je ohromeno tureck\u00fdmi nehor\u00e1zn\u00fdmi l\u017eemi, duplicitou a naivitou. Turecko se domn\u00edvalo, \u017ee by mohlo vykon\u00e1vat kontrolu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm mal\u00e9 skupiny, 15 000\u010dlenn\u00e9 zast\u0159e\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed organizace pod veden\u00edm Jolani. Rusko pochopilo, \u017ee S\u00fdrie je na to p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 polarizovan\u00e1 a podez\u0159el\u00e1.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Rusko se necht\u011blo nechat vykrv\u00e1cet jako v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu, kdy\u017e Erdogan roztrhal mapu. USA a Izrael zni\u010dily nestabiln\u00ed stabilitu. Mus\u00edte za to zaplatit. Erdogan vypustil d\u00e9mony turecko\/osmansk\u00e9 v\u00fdjime\u010dnosti v tich\u00e9 spolu\u00fa\u010dasti na izraelsk\u00fdch eschatologick\u00fdch ambic\u00edch. Tohle bude pr\u016f\u0161vih.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Tento v\u00edkend se objevily zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee syrsk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby loni spolupracovaly s Mossadem a poskytovaly zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace o pohybu a um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed vysok\u00fdch velitel\u016f IRGC, kter\u00e9 Izrael pou\u017e\u00edval k atent\u00e1t\u016fm. Pokud by to byla pravda, byl by to chyb\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed kousek skl\u00e1da\u010dky rychl\u00e9ho kolapsu syrsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a vysv\u011btlovalo by to, pro\u010d \u00cdr\u00e1n nepodpo\u0159il Asada v odr\u00e1\u017een\u00ed d\u017eih\u00e1dist\u016f podporovan\u00fdch Tureckem.<\/span><\/p>\n

*<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Larry C. Johnson je b\u00fdval\u00fd analytik\u00a0<\/span>\u00dast\u0159edn\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby (CIA)<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a uzn\u00e1van\u00fd odborn\u00edk na ot\u00e1zky n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti. Pracoval pro CIA a\u00a0<\/span>americk\u00e9 ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0a je zn\u00e1m\u00fd zejm\u00e9na sv\u00fdmi koment\u00e1\u0159i k mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm z\u00e1le\u017eitostem a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm ot\u00e1zk\u00e1m.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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Triumf\u00e1ln\u00ed r\u00e9torika v kulo\u00e1rech Washingtonu, DC, oslavuj\u00edc\u00ed p\u00e1d syrsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy jako velk\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed nad Ruskem,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":68369,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,109,147,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68368"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=68368"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/68368\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/68369"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=68368"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=68368"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=68368"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}