{"id":67995,"date":"2024-12-12T00:36:05","date_gmt":"2024-12-11T23:36:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=67995"},"modified":"2024-12-11T16:54:17","modified_gmt":"2024-12-11T15:54:17","slug":"politicka-nejistota-v-evrope-roste-presto-se-trhum-dari","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/12\/politicka-nejistota-v-evrope-roste-presto-se-trhum-dari\/","title":{"rendered":"Politick\u00e1 nejistota v Evrop\u011b roste, p\u0159esto se trh\u016fm da\u0159\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Rok 2024 nebyl pro evropskou politiku p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fd.<\/em> Dv\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomiky EU se top\u00ed v krizi, nebo\u0165 po listopadov\u00e9m p\u00e1du n\u011bmeck\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy prob\u011bhlo hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed o ned\u016fv\u011b\u0159e francouzsk\u00e9mu premi\u00e9rovi.<\/em> Hlavn\u00edm bodem sporu je vl\u00e1dn\u00ed rozpo\u010det a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 stagnace.<\/em> I p\u0159es tyto nejistoty v\u0161ak n\u011bkter\u00e9 akcie dosahuj\u00ed sv\u00fdch nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edch hodnot, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee trhy ne v\u017edy berou v \u00favahu v\u0161echna mo\u017en\u00e1 rizika.<\/em><\/p>\n

Hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed o ned\u016fv\u011b\u0159e francouzsk\u00e9mu premi\u00e9rovi je prvn\u00ed za posledn\u00edch 62 let<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Francouzsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Michel Barnier prohr\u00e1l hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed o d\u016fv\u011b\u0159e iniciovan\u00e9 opozi\u010dn\u00edmi stranami pot\u00e9, co prosadil st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok bez schv\u00e1len\u00ed parlamentem. Pr\u00e1v\u011b ten je p\u0159edm\u011btem spor\u016f mezi parlamentn\u00edmi stranami ve Francii, nebo\u0165 zem\u011b hospoda\u0159\u00ed se zna\u010dn\u00fdm schodkem p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00edm 3 % HDP, co\u017e je pro EU p\u0159ijateln\u00e1 hranice. Zat\u00edmco Barnier prosazuje rozpo\u010det, kter\u00fd by tento deficit sn\u00ed\u017eil o 60 miliard eur v roce 2025, krajn\u011b pravicov\u00e1 strana N\u00e1rodn\u00ed aliance Marie Le Penov\u00e9 ani levicov\u00e1 koalice Nov\u00e1 lidov\u00e1 fronta s jeho nastaven\u00edm nesouhlas\u00ed. Tyto ud\u00e1losti jsou jak\u00fdmsi pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00edm krize, kter\u00e1 za\u010dala vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdch voleb, je\u017e se maj\u00ed konat na p\u0159elomu \u010dervna a \u010dervence 2024, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 jasn\u00e9 v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed krajn\u00ed pravice. Vl\u00e1du se nakonec poda\u0159ilo svrhnout stran\u011b prezidenta Emmanuela Macrona s pomoc\u00ed socialist\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se nyn\u00ed v hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed o ned\u016fv\u011b\u0159e spojili s Le Penovou. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee Macron nyn\u00ed jmenuje do\u010dasn\u011b nov\u00e9ho premi\u00e9ra, jeho\u017e prioritou bude prosadit nov\u00fd rozpo\u010det, aby jej mohl schv\u00e1lit parlament.<\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed francouzsk\u00fd akciov\u00fd index CAC 40 reagoval na p\u00e1d vl\u00e1dy p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b pozitivn\u011b a v p\u00e1tek 6. prosince se pohyboval na t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edch maximech, co\u017e lze vysv\u011btlit o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm men\u0161\u00ed konsolidace v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, ale tak\u00e9 t\u00edm, \u017ee trhy p\u00e1d vl\u00e1dy o\u010dek\u00e1valy. P\u0159itom jejich reakce na vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdch voleb v \u010dervnu byla opa\u010dn\u00e1. P\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fd sentiment podpo\u0159ila prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Marine Le Penov\u00e9, kter\u00e1 nazna\u010dila, \u017ee neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 odvol\u00e1n\u00ed prezidenta Macrona a \u017ee nov\u00fd rozpo\u010det by mohl b\u00fdt schv\u00e1len b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika t\u00fddn\u016f. Politick\u00e1 nejistota zvy\u0161uje rizikovou pr\u00e9mii u francouzsk\u00fdch aktiv, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit ochotu investor\u016f financovat vl\u00e1dn\u00ed projekty. Zisky trhu v\u0161ak budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b do\u010dasn\u00e9. Stejn\u011b jako CAC 40 dos\u00e1hl evropsk\u00fd index STOXX 600 ve \u010dtvrtek 5. prosince m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u00edho maxima a zaznamenal \u0161est\u00fd den v kladn\u00e9m teritoriu v \u0159ad\u011b.* Nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zisky zaznamenaly banky, zejm\u00e9na francouzsk\u00e9.<\/p>\n

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Zdroj: investing.com*<\/em><\/p>\n

Politick\u00e1 nejistota panuje i v N\u011bmecku<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159ed n\u011bkolika t\u00fddny padla vl\u00e1da i v ekonomicky nejsiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 zemi, N\u011bmecku. K p\u00e1du do\u0161lo pot\u00e9, co n\u011bmeck\u00fd kancl\u00e9\u0159 Olaf Scholz odvolal ministra financ\u00ed kv\u016fli neshod\u00e1m ohledn\u011b o\u017eiven\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky, kter\u00e1 se posledn\u00ed dva roky propad\u00e1. Tento krok rozzlobil ostatn\u00ed l\u00eddry vl\u00e1dnouc\u00edch stran. 16. prosince se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed o d\u016fv\u011b\u0159e Scholzov\u011b vl\u00e1d\u011b jako form\u00e1ln\u00ed krok p\u0159ed vyps\u00e1n\u00edm p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdch voleb. Organizace pro hospod\u00e1\u0159skou spolupr\u00e1ci a rozvoj (OECD) sn\u00ed\u017eila progn\u00f3zu r\u016fstu n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce o 0,7 %, co\u017e je v\u00fdrazn\u011b pod p\u016fvodn\u00edm odhadem 1,1 %. Tyto nejist\u00e9 vyhl\u00eddky vypl\u00fdvaj\u00ed tak\u00e9 z perspektivy zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed cel ze strany nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed Trumpovy administrativy, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee ohrozit n\u011bmeck\u00fd v\u00fdvoz.<\/p>\n

DAX na historick\u00e9m maximu<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Navzdory t\u011bmto probl\u00e9m\u016fm n\u011bmeck\u00fd index DAX 3. prosince poprv\u00e9 v historii p\u0159ekonal hranici 20 000 bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f. K jeho r\u016fstu p\u0159isp\u011bly zejm\u00e9na maloobchodn\u00ed tr\u017eby, doprava a logistika a sektor potravin\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed a n\u00e1poj\u016f. Akcie v t\u011bchto sektorech rostly d\u00edky p\u0159edv\u00e1no\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1kupn\u00ed hore\u010dce, kter\u00e1 za\u010dala v den slev Black Friday. Nejl\u00e9pe ze v\u0161ech akci\u00ed v indexu se v\u0161ak da\u0159ilo spole\u010dnosti Siemens Energy, kter\u00e1 dos\u00e1hla rekordn\u00edch hodnot, k \u010demu\u017e p\u0159isp\u011bl pozitivn\u00ed v\u00fdhled, kter\u00fd z\u00edskal d\u016fv\u011bru zejm\u00e9na institucion\u00e1ln\u00edch investor\u016f*.<\/p>\n

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Zdroj: investing.com*<\/em><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Z politick\u00e9ho a ekonomick\u00e9ho hlediska jsou sou\u010dasn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti ve Francii a N\u011bmecku kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 pro budouc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj v Evrop\u011b. Nejistota v obou zem\u00edch spojen\u00e1 s p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fdmi volbami a nejasn\u00fdmi ekonomick\u00fdmi progn\u00f3zami m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit nejen dom\u00e1c\u00ed trhy, ale i \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed ekonomickou stabilitu. Zat\u00edmco pozitivn\u00ed reakce trhu na p\u00e1d francouzsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a rekordn\u00ed v\u00fdkonnost n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho DAXu nazna\u010duj\u00ed do\u010dasnou stabilitu, dlouhodob\u00e9 investi\u010dn\u00ed vyhl\u00eddky z\u016fst\u00e1vaj\u00ed z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na budouc\u00edch rozhodnut\u00edch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f t\u011bchto zem\u00ed. Ta mohou ovlivnit d\u016fv\u011bru investor\u016f v cel\u00e9 Evrop\u011b.<\/p>\n

David Matulay, hlavn\u00ed analytik spole\u010dnosti<\/em><\/strong> InvestingFox<\/em><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Varov\u00e1n\u00ed! Tento marketingov\u00fd materi\u00e1l nen\u00ed a nesm\u00ed b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1n za investi\u010dn\u00ed poradenstv\u00ed. \u00dadaje z minulosti nejsou z\u00e1rukou budouc\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f. Investov\u00e1n\u00ed v ciz\u00ed m\u011bn\u011b m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit v\u00fdnosy v d\u016fsledku kol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00ed. V\u0161echny transakce s cenn\u00fdmi pap\u00edry mohou v\u00e9st jak k zisk\u016fm, tak ke ztr\u00e1t\u00e1m. V\u00fdhledov\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady a sou\u010dasn\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e1 nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt p\u0159esn\u00e1 nebo vych\u00e1zej\u00ed ze sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho ekonomick\u00e9ho prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kter\u00e9 se m\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit.<\/p>\n

Tato prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed nejsou z\u00e1rukou budouc\u00ed v\u00fdkonnosti. InvestingFox je ochrann\u00e1 zn\u00e1mka spole\u010dnosti CAPITAL MARKETS, o.c.p., a.s. regulovan\u00e9 N\u00e1rodn\u00ed bankou Slovenska.<\/p>\n

* \u00dadaje z minulosti nejsou z\u00e1rukou budouc\u00edch v\u00fdnos\u016f.<\/p>\n

Zdroje:<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/cdxz934p56qo<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.investing.com\/news\/stock-market-news\/barnier-expected-to-resign-as-frances-festering-political-crisis-rumbles-on-3755710<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.investing.com\/news\/stock-market-news\/european-stocks-edge-higher-as-investors-weigh-impact-of-french-govt-collapse-3755916<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/edition.cnn.com\/2024\/11\/07\/europe\/germany-government-collapse-explainer-intl\/index.html<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/germany-election-scholz-confidence-vote-69dc9138f438f1f51db222e7ee3428cf<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.investing.com\/news\/economy-news\/oecd-cuts-german-growth-outlook-for-2025-amid-political-woes-93CH-3753486<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.investing.com\/news\/stock-market-news\/germany-stocks-higher-at-close-of-trade-dax-up-100-3754671<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rok 2024 nebyl pro evropskou politiku p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 p\u0159\u00edzniv\u00fd. Dv\u011b nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomiky EU se top\u00ed v…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67999,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,45,331],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67995"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67995"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67995\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":68000,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67995\/revisions\/68000"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67999"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67995"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67995"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67995"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}