{"id":67895,"date":"2024-12-11T00:38:38","date_gmt":"2024-12-10T23:38:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=67895"},"modified":"2024-12-10T17:01:09","modified_gmt":"2024-12-10T16:01:09","slug":"trump-v-piskovisti-mnoho-prekazek-pro-dohodu-s-ukrajinou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/11\/trump-v-piskovisti-mnoho-prekazek-pro-dohodu-s-ukrajinou\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump v p\u00edskovi\u0161ti: Mnoho p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eek pro dohodu s Ukrajinou"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Kolaps S\u00fdrie sp\u00ed\u0161e zkomplikuje ne\u017e usnadn\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Trumpem a Putinem, zat\u00edmco odch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed Biden nad\u00e1le p\u0159il\u00e9v\u00e1 olej do ohn\u011b ukrajinsk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Nov\u011b zvolen\u00fd americk\u00fd prezident Donald Trump se neochotn\u011b setkal v Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017ei s ukrajinsk\u00fdm prezidentem Volodymyrem Zelensk\u00fdm a francouzsk\u00fdm prezidentem Emanuelem Macronem, aby prodiskutovali, jak postupovat na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco Trump tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dil Zelensk\u00e9ho, aby pokro\u010dil v jedn\u00e1n\u00edch s Ruskem, Zelenskij je ji\u017e nejist\u00fd ohledn\u011b jak\u00fdchkoli z\u00e1vazk\u016f, kter\u00e9 mohl p\u0159ijmout. Ani vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed a p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed nejsou p\u0159esn\u011b to, co Macron chce.<\/p>\n

Trump\u016fv\u00a0pl\u00e1n<\/a>\u00a0pro Ukrajinu je jednoduch\u00fd, ale pln\u00fd n\u00e1\u0161lapn\u00fdch min. Jednodu\u0161e \u0159e\u010deno: Trump navrhuje okam\u017eit\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee Ukrajina postoup\u00ed (n\u011bkter\u00e1) \u00fazem\u00ed Rusku. Pokud se d\u00e1 \u0159\u00edct, Trump s Putinem je\u0161t\u011b nemluvil.<\/p>\n

Jakmile bude dosa\u017eeno dohody o \u00fazem\u00ed, vznikne jak\u00e9si n\u00e1razn\u00edkov\u00e9 p\u00e1smo a n\u011bkter\u00e9 jednotky z Francie, N\u011bmecka a Spojen\u00e9ho kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed budou p\u016fsobit jako m\u00edrov\u00e9 jednotky (co\u017e Rusko s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed nep\u0159ijme). Ukrajina se sv\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem st\u00e1hne z jak\u00fdchkoliv \u00favah o \u010dlenstv\u00ed v NATO, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b na ur\u010ditou dobu (5 a\u017e 20 let).<\/p>\n

Co na to \u0159eknou Rusov\u00e9? Za prv\u00e9, Rusov\u00e9 pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nebudou souhlasit s p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm, dokud budou ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed voj\u00e1ci na rusk\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed. Putin proto bude po\u017eadovat jejich sta\u017een\u00ed z Kurska.<\/p>\n

Postoj USA a Ukrajiny (p\u0159ed Trumpem) je takov\u00fd, \u017ee Kursk je sm\u011bnn\u00fd objekt a zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Ukrajinci cht\u011bj\u00ed vym\u011bnit Kursk za ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed v dr\u017een\u00ed Ruska.<\/p>\n

Na zemi nyn\u00ed Rusov\u00e9 dobyli zp\u011bt asi 50 a\u017e 60 % oblasti Kurska p\u016fvodn\u011b zajat\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00fdmi ozbrojen\u00fdmi silami (AFU). Ukrajina v\u0161ak pokra\u010dovala v nasazov\u00e1n\u00ed kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch rezerv, aby z\u016fstala v boji o oblast, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee kone\u010dn\u00e9 vypuzen\u00ed AFU bude n\u011bjakou dobu trvat.<\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to souvislosti podle rusk\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f ztr\u00e1ty AFU v Kursku dosahuj\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 40 000, s velk\u00fdmi ztr\u00e1tami na vybaven\u00ed a munici. Rusk\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty mohou b\u00fdt tak\u00e9 vysok\u00e9, ale neexistuj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 spolehliv\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy.<\/p>\n

Putinovy \u200b\u200bmo\u017enosti jsou bu\u010f (1) pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed v protiofenz\u00edv\u011b Kurska, p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b s nav\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm po\u010dtu voj\u00e1k\u016f a\u00a0palebn\u00e9 s\u00edly<\/a>\u00a0, nebo (2) uzn\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee op\u011btovn\u00e9 dobyt\u00ed Kurska je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 n\u00e1kladn\u00e9, co\u017e vede k uzav\u0159en\u00ed p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n

D\u00e1 se o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin bude prosazovat prvn\u00ed mo\u017enost, i kdy\u017e s tajn\u00fdm harmonogramem, kter\u00fd umo\u017e\u0148uje dokon\u010den\u00ed protiofenz\u00edvy mo\u017en\u00e1 m\u011bs\u00edc nebo dva.<\/p>\n

Je t\u0159eba poznamenat, \u017ee do\u0161lo k nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi rusk\u00fdm politick\u00fdm veden\u00edm, zam\u011b\u0159en\u00fdm na Putina, a ruskou arm\u00e1dou, kter\u00e1 ne v\u017edy projevovala stejn\u00e9 nad\u0161en\u00ed politick\u00e9 strany nebo mo\u017en\u00e1 nebyla tak kompetentn\u00ed, jak se vnit\u0159n\u011b proklamovalo.<\/p>\n

Politicky \u0159e\u010deno, Putin nen\u00ed v dobr\u00e9 kondici. Dr\u017e\u00ed se sv\u00fdch z\u00e1kladen v S\u00fdrii, ale toto uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fdm dnem vybuchnout. Nikdo nedok\u00e1\u017ee p\u0159esn\u011b \u0159\u00edci, jak bude nov\u00e1 syrsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da vypadat a jak\u00e9 c\u00edle bude sledovat.<\/p>\n

Putinovo region\u00e1ln\u00ed selh\u00e1n\u00ed (odlo\u017een\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161iny sv\u00fdch vajec do ko\u0161e \u00edr\u00e1nsko-syrsk\u00e9ho Hizball\u00e1hu) oslabilo ruskou presti\u017e. Dal\u0161\u00ed \u0161patn\u00e1 rozhodnut\u00ed, jako ta, kter\u00e1 u\u010dinili Severokorejci\u00a0nebo<\/a>\u00a0\u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9, jsou tak\u00e9 pln\u00e1 kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdch a dlouhodob\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f, z nich\u017e n\u011bkter\u00e9, ale ne v\u0161echny, lze p\u0159ekonat.<\/p>\n

Co se stane, pokud se Kim \u010cong-un\u016fv re\u017eim zhrout\u00ed nebo pokud \u010c\u00edna vstoup\u00ed do ekonomick\u00e9 krize, kter\u00e1 se vymkne kontrole? Putin m\u00e1 ur\u010dit\u00e9 mo\u017enosti, ale dostat se odtud bude vy\u017eadovat masivn\u00ed p\u0159elad\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed politiky. Uvid\u00ed zde Trump p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost?<\/p>\n

Putin tak\u00e9 \u010del\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 v\u00fdzv\u011b ze strany Turecka, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 na mysli mnohem v\u00edc ne\u017e zab\u00edjen\u00ed Kurd\u016f. Chce se st\u00e1t nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm hr\u00e1\u010dem na tureck\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00edch St\u0159edn\u00ed Asie, kter\u00e1 byla d\u0159\u00edve rusk\u00fdm tr\u00e1vn\u00edkem.<\/p>\n

\u201eStanov\u00e9\u201c, jak se jim \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, jsou pod tlakem NATO, \u010c\u00edny a Turecka a vztahy Ruska s tureck\u00fdm prezidentem Recepem Tayyipem Erdoganem jsou, \u0159ekn\u011bme, problematick\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Jak to dopadne, si m\u016f\u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd domyslet, ale je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee Turecko bude po\u017eadovat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed roli a v\u016fd\u010d\u00ed postaven\u00ed ve vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159\u00edrodn\u00edch zdroj\u016f regionu, v\u010detn\u011b uranu, zlata, m\u011bdi a zemn\u00edho plynu.<\/p>\n

Trump\u016fv pl\u00e1n se zam\u011b\u0159uje p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm na ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b. Ne\u0159\u00edk\u00e1 nic o mnoha deklarovan\u00fdch c\u00edlech Ruska, a\u010dkoli ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Sergej Lavrov je vysv\u011btlil ve sv\u00e9m rozhovoru s Tuckerem Carlsonem, jmenovit\u011b ochrana rusky mluv\u00edc\u00edho obyvatelstva, denacifikace, ochrana rusk\u00e9 pravoslavn\u00e9 c\u00edrkve na Ukrajin\u011b, neutr\u00e1ln\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da, ne. z\u00e1kladny nebo jednotky NATO.<\/p>\n

To v\u0161e vy\u017eaduje z\u00e1sadn\u00ed zm\u011bny ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fastavy a zru\u0161en\u00ed \u010detn\u00fdch z\u00e1kon\u016f p\u0159ijat\u00fdch Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed radou, ukrajinsk\u00fdm parlamentem, jako\u017e i zru\u0161en\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00fdch prezidentsk\u00fdch dekret\u016f.<\/p>\n

Putin by mohl po\u017eadovat zru\u0161en\u00ed t\u011bchto z\u00e1kon\u016f a dekret\u016f p\u0159ed uzav\u0159en\u00edm p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a jedn\u00e1n\u00edm o \u00fazemn\u00edch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch a postaven\u00ed ozbrojen\u00fdch sil. Zda tak u\u010din\u00ed nebo ne, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zkou.<\/p>\n

V kruz\u00edch NATO se mluv\u00ed o vysl\u00e1n\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho do exilu (uv\u00e1d\u00ed se Lond\u00fdn) a n\u00e1sledn\u00e9m uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed voleb na Ukrajin\u011b. Aby se tak stalo, museli by se ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed exilov\u00ed politici vr\u00e1tit na Ukrajinu a organizovat se a v\u011bzn\u011bn\u00ed nebo dom\u00e1c\u00ed v\u011bzen\u00ed by tak\u00e9 museli z\u00edskat politickou svobodu.<\/p>\n

Kamenem \u00farazu jsou ukrajinsk\u00e9 tajn\u00e9 slu\u017eby a jejich vojen\u0161t\u00ed vymaha\u010di. Jsou to oni (jak \u201eciviln\u00ed\u201c, tak vojensk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 agentury), kte\u0159\u00ed udr\u017eeli sou\u010dasnou ukrajinskou vl\u00e1du u moci.<\/p>\n

Je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 si p\u0159edstavit, jak by se na Ukrajin\u011b mohly konat svobodn\u00e9 volby, ani\u017e by byly zru\u0161eny tyto mocn\u00e9, p\u0159ev\u00e1\u017en\u011b vojensk\u00e9 policejn\u00ed s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 rozs\u00e1hle \u0161pehuj\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 ob\u010dany a pl\u00e1nuj\u00ed atent\u00e1ty a bombov\u00e9 \u00fatoky doma i v Rusku i mimo n\u011bj. Krom\u011b voleb je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 si p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee na Ukrajin\u011b lze dos\u00e1hnout v\u00fdsledk\u016f bez vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed probl\u00e9mu bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch slo\u017eek.<\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e1 GRU, ofici\u00e1ln\u011b Hlavn\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e9 \u0159editelstv\u00ed, je \u00fazce propojena se CIA\u00a0v USA a\u00a0\u00a0<\/a>MI-6<\/a>\u00a0ve Spojen\u00e9m kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00edmi zpravodajsk\u00fdmi slu\u017ebami v zem\u00edch NATO (tj. BND nebo Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e1 slu\u017eba v N\u011bmecku, DGSE nebo Gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0159editelstv\u00ed pro vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost ve Francii a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slu\u017ebu nebo Agencja Bezpiecze\u0144stwa Wewn\u0119trznego v Polsku).<\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e9 sestersk\u00e9 slu\u017eby se pokus\u00ed odolat jak\u00e9mukoli pokusu o odstran\u011bn\u00ed nebo omezen\u00ed jejich pravomoc\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem je role a chov\u00e1n\u00ed nacionalistick\u00fdch jednotek ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy, jako je Azov a \u0159ada dal\u0161\u00edch. Pat\u0159\u00ed sem tak\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky speci\u00e1ln\u00edch operac\u00ed (SSO), kter\u00e9 tvo\u0159\u00ed 4000 specialist\u016f Spetsnaz.<\/p>\n

Budou se tyto jednotky dr\u017eet zp\u00e1tky nebo poslouchat rozkazy z Kyjeva? Faktem je, \u017ee profesion\u00e1ln\u00ed a dobrovoln\u00e9 jednotky ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy by mohly hr\u00e1t roli spoilsportu a pokusit se p\u0159evz\u00edt kontrolu nad ukrajinskou vl\u00e1dou.<\/p>\n

Pro Trumpa je situace hor\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee Bidenova administrativa na posledn\u00ed chv\u00edli poskytuje Ukrajin\u011b miliardy dolar\u016f ve zbran\u00edch, \u010d\u00edm\u017e br\u00e1n\u00ed vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Prov\u00e1d\u00ed tak\u00e9 provokativn\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed NATO, kter\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edmo ohro\u017euj\u00ed Rusko.<\/p>\n

Nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je nasazen\u00ed jadern\u00fdch bombard\u00e9r\u016f, AWACS a dal\u0161\u00edch letadel (v\u010detn\u011b spojeneck\u00fdch, v\u010detn\u011b \u0160v\u00e9dska) k letu v bl\u00edzkosti rusk\u00e9 enkl\u00e1vy Kaliningrad a tak\u00e9 cvi\u010den\u00ed v oblasti Finsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu a oblasti poloostrova Kola.<\/p>\n

A co v\u00edc, bojovn\u00e9 koment\u00e1\u0159e americk\u00e9ho ministra obrany Lloyda Austina tahaj\u00ed vlnu za o\u010di p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed administrativ\u011b, kter\u00e1 chce sp\u00ed\u0161e zpomalit nebo zastavit prodej zbran\u00ed na Ukrajinu, ne\u017e aby situaci\u00a0zhor\u0161ila zaplaven\u00edm Ukrajiny\u00a0zbran\u011bmi .<\/a><\/p>\n

Kupodivu po ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch ne\u00fasp\u011bchech postaven\u00ed Ruska na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b bude m\u00edt Putin v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, ne men\u0161\u00ed pot\u00ed\u017ee s \u00fastupky Trumpovi. Dok\u00e1\u017ee Trump p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit Putina ke spolupr\u00e1ci?<\/p>\n

Aby p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dil Rusko, pot\u0159ebuje n\u011bjak\u00e9 mocn\u00e9 n\u00e1vnady, ale nem\u016f\u017eeme \u0159\u00edct, jak\u00e9 to jsou. Mezit\u00edm p\u0159ek\u00e1\u017eky, v\u010detn\u011b Bidena, ma\u0159\u00ed Trumpa a \u010din\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00fd pokrok obt\u00ed\u017en\u00fdm, a\u017e nemo\u017en\u00fdm.<\/p>\n

AKTUALIZACE:<\/strong>\u00a0\u00a0Zelenskyj \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee rozhovory se zvolen\u00fdm americk\u00fdm prezidentem\u00a0Trumpem<\/a>\u00a0jsou p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9, proto\u017ee Trump nem\u00e1 pravomoc takov\u00e9 z\u00e1le\u017eitosti \u0159e\u0161it.<\/p>\n

\u201eJe t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 o tom mluvit s prezidentem Trumpem, proto\u017ee je\u0161t\u011b nen\u00ed v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b. Mimochodem, brzy zavol\u00e1m prezidentu Bidenovi, aby se zab\u00fdval ot\u00e1zkou pozv\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny do NATO,\u201c \u0159ekl Zelenskyj.<\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00fd prezident byl tak\u00e9 otev\u0159en\u00fd n\u00e1vrhu francouzsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Macrona rozm\u00edstit na Ukrajin\u011b mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed s\u00edly, aby p\u0159eklenuly obdob\u00ed do \u010dlenstv\u00ed v NATO.<\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed a Francie \u00fadajn\u011b zva\u017euj\u00ed vysl\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fdch jednotek po p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, co\u017e je n\u00e1pad, kter\u00fd n\u011bmeck\u00e1 ministryn\u011b zahrani\u010d\u00ed Annalena Baerbock nevylou\u010dila.<\/p>\n

Stephen Bryen<\/strong> je korespondentem Asia Times a p\u016fsobil jako \u0159editel podv\u00fdboru pro Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod V\u00fdboru pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vztahy americk\u00e9ho Sen\u00e1tu a jako z\u00e1stupce n\u00e1m\u011bstka ministra obrany pro politiku Tento \u010dl\u00e1nek byl poprv\u00e9 publikov\u00e1n v jeho zpravodaji Weapons and Strategy a je znovu publikov\u00e1n se svolen\u00edm .<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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Kolaps S\u00fdrie sp\u00ed\u0161e zkomplikuje ne\u017e usnadn\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed mezi Trumpem a Putinem, zat\u00edmco odch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed Biden nad\u00e1le…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67896,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,122,22,452,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67895"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67895"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67895\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67896"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67895"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67895"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67895"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}