{"id":67827,"date":"2024-12-10T00:40:45","date_gmt":"2024-12-09T23:40:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=67827"},"modified":"2024-12-09T17:20:56","modified_gmt":"2024-12-09T16:20:56","slug":"james-w-carden-co-cekat-od-trumpa-ii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/10\/james-w-carden-co-cekat-od-trumpa-ii\/","title":{"rendered":"James W. Carden: Co \u010dekat od Trumpa II"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Zhruba p\u0159ed \u010dtvrt stolet\u00edm sestavil nov\u011b zvolen\u00fd republik\u00e1nsk\u00fd prezident, kter\u00fd vedl kampa\u0148 na z\u00e1klad\u011b slibu skromn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a m\u00e9n\u011b arogantn\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky, sv\u016fj t\u00fdm pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiku a n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost. Kdy\u017e skon\u010dil, i kritici nov\u00e9ho prezidenta museli uznat, \u017ee t\u00fdm, kter\u00fd sestavil, byl p\u016fsobiv\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nov\u00fd ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed – Colin Powell – d\u0159\u00edve p\u016fsobil jako p\u0159edseda Sboru n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edk\u016f \u0161t\u00e1b\u016f a byl u americk\u00e9ho lidu tak obl\u00edben\u00fd, \u017ee byl \u010dasto vyb\u00edzen, aby s\u00e1m kandidoval na prezidenta.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nov\u00fd ministr obrany Donald Rumsfeld byl d\u0159\u00edve kongresmanem, velvyslancem p\u0159i NATO, n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edkem gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu v B\u00edl\u00e9m dom\u011b a ministrem obrany.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mlad\u00e1 a brilantn\u00ed poradkyn\u011b pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost \u2013 Condi Riceov\u00e1 \u2013 byla d\u0159\u00edve hlavn\u00ed sov\u011btskou expertkou v Rad\u011b n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti a byla renomovan\u00fdm politologem, kter\u00fd byl ve sv\u00fdch 39 letech jmenov\u00e1n kancl\u00e9\u0159em Stanfordsk\u00e9 univerzity.<\/span><\/p>\n

A p\u0159esto.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem t\u0159\u00ed let tento nejzku\u0161en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a nejdokonalej\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed t\u00fdm nasm\u011broval Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty do \u0159ady zbyte\u010dn\u00fdch a katastrofick\u00fdch v\u00e1lek, kter\u00e9 zabily stovky tis\u00edc lid\u00ed a daly vzniknout teroristick\u00fdm skupin\u00e1m, jako je ISIS.<\/span><\/p>\n

To v\u0161e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee zku\u0161enost nen\u00ed v\u017edy ukazatelem \u00fasp\u011bchu prezidentsk\u00e9 administrativy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Novin\u00e1\u0159i a zahrani\u010dn\u011bpoliti\u010dt\u00ed analytici, kte\u0159\u00ed dnes kritizuj\u00ed Trump\u016fv nov\u00fd t\u00fdm za jeho nezku\u0161enost, by to m\u011bli m\u00edt na pam\u011bti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b z pohledu t\u011bch z n\u00e1s, kter\u00fdm z\u00e1le\u017e\u00ed na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm m\u00edru a stabilit\u011b a kte\u0159\u00ed se ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee by se v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b a na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b mohly vymknout kontrole, d\u00e1v\u00e1 Trump\u016fv navrhovan\u00fd t\u00fdm spoustu d\u016fvod\u016f k obav\u00e1m \u2013 jist\u011b z jin\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f, ne\u017e je nedostatek. zku\u0161enost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abych vysv\u011btlil pro\u010d, mus\u00edm diskusi zasadit do kontextu debaty ve Washingtonu o zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice USA obecn\u011b a pak konkr\u00e9tn\u011b do kontextu Trumpova t\u00fdmu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro ty z v\u00e1s, kte\u0159\u00ed nejsou p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 obezn\u00e1meni s parametry zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00e9 debaty ve Washingtonu, bych r\u00e1d poskytl stru\u010dn\u00fd p\u0159ehled t\u0159\u00ed hlavn\u00edch sm\u011br\u016f zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech: neokonzervatismus, liber\u00e1ln\u00ed intervencionismus a realismus.<\/span><\/p>\n

Neokonzervativci vid\u00ed vojenskou s\u00edlu a hrozbu vojenskou silou jako \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ka\u017ed\u00e9ho probl\u00e9mu. Konzervativn\u00ed myslitel Russell Kirk jednou poznamenal, \u017ee neokonzervativci si \u201epletou Tel Aviv s hlavn\u00edm m\u011bstem Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f\u201c \u2013 tak v\u00fdsti\u017en\u00fd a p\u0159esn\u00fd popis neokonzervativc\u016f, jak si jen lze p\u0159edstavit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Liber\u00e1ln\u00ed intervencionist\u00e9 jsou vesm\u011bs lid\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed zam\u011bstn\u00e1vaj\u00ed Bidenovu administrativu. Politiku, kterou up\u0159ednost\u0148uj\u00ed, lze jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed odli\u0161it od politiky neocon\u016f. Velk\u00fd rozd\u00edl je v tom, \u017ee mluv\u00ed na rovinu multilater\u00e1ln\u00edm instituc\u00edm, jako je OSN, a maskuj\u00ed sv\u016fj militarismus do slovn\u00edku humanismu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Neoconi i liber\u00e1ln\u00ed intervencionist\u00e9 sd\u00edlej\u00ed to, co nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed st\u00e1tn\u00edk 20. stolet\u00ed Charles de Gaulle kdysi nazval \u201eamerick\u00fdm mesi\u00e1\u0161sk\u00fdm impulsem, kter\u00fd rozdm\u00fdchal americk\u00e9ho ducha a p\u0159ivedl jej k velk\u00fdm podnik\u016fm\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Amerika, \u0159ekl de Gaulle, si vyvinula \u201ez\u00e1libu v intervenc\u00edch, kter\u00e9 skr\u00fdvaj\u00ed pud dominance\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale takov\u00e9 impulsy jsou klatbou pro t\u0159et\u00ed \u0161kolu americk\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky, realismus. Hlavn\u00ed rozd\u00edl mezi realismem a prvn\u00edmi dv\u011bma \u0161kolami spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, \u017ee realist\u00e9 jsou schopni rozli\u0161ovat mezi z\u00e1kladn\u00edmi a perifern\u00edmi z\u00e1jmy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Obecn\u011b plat\u00ed, \u017ee my realist\u00e9 kritizujeme diskre\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e9 pova\u017eujeme za p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 \u010dasto kontraproduktivn\u00ed a dokonce nemor\u00e1ln\u00ed. Ch\u00e1peme tak\u00e9 pot\u0159ebu dos\u00e1hnout stabiln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hy sil a uzn\u00e1v\u00e1me nebezpe\u010d\u00ed unipolarity.<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuje roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fd p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee America First Donalda Trumpa n\u011bjak souvis\u00ed s realistickou \u0161kolou. \u010casto se tak\u00e9 nespr\u00e1vn\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee \u201eAmerika na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b\u201c je jednodu\u0161e aktualizovan\u00e1 forma izolacionismu, kter\u00e1 byla popul\u00e1rn\u00ed ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech ve 30. letech 20. stolet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tyto p\u0159edpoklady zpochyb\u0148uji: vzhledem ke slo\u017een\u00ed jeho nov\u00e9ho n\u00e1rodn\u00edho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho t\u00fdmu vypad\u00e1 Trumpova \u201eAmerick\u00e1 na prvn\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b\u201c st\u00e1le v\u00edce jako marketingov\u00fd trik, kter\u00fd vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 r\u00e9toriku realist\u016f k zast\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed, pran\u00ed a kamuflov\u00e1n\u00ed v podstat\u011b neokonzervativn\u00edch politik. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, America First je jen neokonzervatismus v realistick\u00e9m h\u00e1vu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud ano, m\u011bli bychom o\u010dek\u00e1vat dobr\u00fd stupe\u0148 kontinuity s politikou Bidenovy administrativy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e dojde na v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b, Trump\u016fv \u201epl\u00e1n\u201c, respektive jeho o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee on a on jedin\u00fd dok\u00e1\u017ee vyjednat konec v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b, zav\u00e1n\u00ed nere\u00e1lnost\u00ed. Navzdory jeho \u010dasto uv\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9mu z\u00e1m\u011bru ukon\u010dit v\u00e1lku se domn\u00edv\u00e1m, \u017ee existuje re\u00e1ln\u00e9 riziko, \u017ee se on a jeho t\u00fdm pokus\u00ed eskalovat, aby ji ukon\u010dili.<\/span><\/p>\n

A pro takov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup existuje znepokojiv\u00fd precedens: vzpome\u0148te si, \u017ee Richard Nixon vedl kampa\u0148 v roce 1968 a sliboval ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky ve Vietnamu \u2013 Nixon \u0159ekl, \u017ee m\u00e1 tajn\u00fd pl\u00e1n na ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Ale jakmile byli on a jeho ministr zahrani\u010d\u00ed Henry Kissinger ve funkci, eskalovali situaci v myln\u00e9 v\u00ed\u0159e, \u017ee to p\u0159ivede Severovietnamce k jednac\u00edmu stolu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dovedu si tedy velmi dob\u0159e p\u0159edstavit Trumpa, \u017ee by se o takov\u00fd pokus pokusil, v\u017edy\u0165 to byl on, kdo ve sv\u00e9m prvn\u00edm funk\u010dn\u00edm obdob\u00ed poslal na Ukrajinu protitankov\u00e9 st\u0159ely Javelin, opakovan\u011b uvaloval sankce na Rusko, vyh\u00e1n\u011bl rusk\u00e9 diplomaty a byl na Ukrajin\u011b tvrd\u00fdm neokonzervativcem jmenovan\u00fd z\u00e1stupce. N\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed z Trumpova t\u00fdmu nyn\u00ed kritizovali Bidenovo ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 rozhodnut\u00ed poslat na Ukrajinu rakety ATACM dlouh\u00e9ho doletu, ale up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, vzhledem k jejich p\u0159edchoz\u00edm koment\u00e1\u0159\u016fm, kritika zav\u00e1n\u00ed stranick\u00fdm oportunismem.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1m, \u017ee je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 si p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee Trump d\u011bl\u00e1 na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed pr\u00e1ci ne\u017e Biden. Ale zeptejte se sami sebe: Kam povede bianko \u0161ek, kter\u00fd Trump nepochybn\u011b vystav\u00ed Bibimu Netanjahuovi?<\/span><\/p>\n

Mohlo by to velmi dob\u0159e v\u00e9st k p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 v\u00e1lce s \u00cdr\u00e1nem.<\/span><\/p>\n

A zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee soused\u00e9 Izraele se p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed na n\u011bjakou konfrontaci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zamyslete se: Za rok a p\u016fl od doby, kdy \u010c\u00edna zprost\u0159edkovala historick\u00e9 sbl\u00ed\u017een\u00ed mezi \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bi\u00ed, Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>obvinila Izrael z genocidy a d\u016frazn\u011b odsoudila Netanjahuovo bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed Libanonu. Ned\u00e1vno se \u0161\u00e9f egyptsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil se\u0161el se sv\u00fdm tureck\u00fdm prot\u011bj\u0161kem k jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o prohlouben\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 spolupr\u00e1ce mezi ob\u011bma n\u00e1rody. Turecko nav\u00edc pr\u00e1v\u011b ozn\u00e1milo, \u017ee p\u0159eru\u0161ilo ve\u0161ker\u00e9 diplomatick\u00e9 vztahy s Izraelem.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Trump\u016fv nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed poradce pro n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost mezit\u00edm ve\u0159ejn\u011b vyzval Izrael, aby eskaloval svou v\u00e1lku proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu. V \u0159\u00edjnu navrhl, aby Izrael bombardoval ostrov Kharg, odkud \u00cdr\u00e1n dod\u00e1v\u00e1 90 procent sv\u00e9ho exportu ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm byli neokonzervativci ve Washingtonu zanepr\u00e1zdn\u011bni \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00edm \u0161kodliv\u00e9 propagandy, podobn\u011b jako p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou v Ir\u00e1ku v roce 2003.<\/span><\/p>\n

Neokonzervativn\u00ed kolega z Washingtonsk\u00e9ho institutu pro politiku Bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdchodu ned\u00e1vno zve\u0159ejnil zpr\u00e1vu obvi\u0148uj\u00edc\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n z v\u00fdvoje nov\u00e9ho typu chemick\u00e9 zbran\u011b: \u201e\u00cdr\u00e1n,\u201c uv\u00e1d\u00ed zpr\u00e1va, \u201enyn\u00ed z\u0159ejm\u011b vyrobil chemick\u00e9 zbran\u011b na b\u00e1zi fentanylu, kter\u00e9 \u00fadajn\u011b dodal partnery a z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 skupiny v Ir\u00e1ku a S\u00fdrii.<\/span><\/p>\n

De Gaulle jednou napsal: \u201eUva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed je \u00fakolem mnoha, jedn\u00e1n\u00ed je \u00fakolem jednoho.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nakonec se Donald Trump mus\u00ed rozhodnout, zda dovol\u00ed neokonzervativc\u016fm, aby n\u00e1s zat\u00e1hli do v\u00e1lky s \u00cdr\u00e1nem \u2013 v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e1 m\u00e1 skute\u010dn\u00fd potenci\u00e1l vyvolat sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku. P\u0159\u00e1l bych si, abych v\u00e1m p\u0159edstavil \u0161\u0165astn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 \u2013 ale pot\u00e9, co jsem dorazil a\u017e sem, nen\u00ed d\u016fvod k v\u00e1m neb\u00fdt up\u0159\u00edmn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n

*<\/span><\/p>\n

James W. Carden je publicista a b\u00fdval\u00fd poradce americko-rusk\u00e9 bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed prezidentsk\u00e9 komise p\u0159i ministerstvu zahrani\u010d\u00ed USA. Jeho \u010dl\u00e1nky a eseje se objevily v r\u016fzn\u00fdch publikac\u00edch, v\u010detn\u011b The Nation, The American Conservative, Responsible Statecraft, The Spectator, UnHerd, The National Interest, Quartz, The Los Angeles Times a American Affairs.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Zhruba p\u0159ed \u010dtvrt stolet\u00edm sestavil nov\u011b zvolen\u00fd republik\u00e1nsk\u00fd prezident, kter\u00fd vedl kampa\u0148 na z\u00e1klad\u011b slibu…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":66335,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1503,165,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67827"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67827"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67827\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/66335"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67827"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67827"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67827"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}