{"id":67823,"date":"2024-12-10T00:38:52","date_gmt":"2024-12-09T23:38:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=67823"},"modified":"2024-12-09T17:14:00","modified_gmt":"2024-12-09T16:14:00","slug":"syrie-mise-splnena-byvaly-analytik-cia-nepredpovida-nic-dobreho","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/10\/syrie-mise-splnena-byvaly-analytik-cia-nepredpovida-nic-dobreho\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00fdrie: mise spln\u011bna? B\u00fdval\u00fd analytik CIA nep\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 nic dobr\u00e9ho"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pamatujete si na j\u00e1sav\u00e9 sc\u00e9ny, kdy CIA najala dav v Bagd\u00e1du, aby za\u00fato\u010dil na centr\u00e1ln\u00ed n\u00e1m\u011bst\u00ed a strhl sochu Sadd\u00e1ma Husajna? Pamatujete na plen\u011bn\u00ed prezidentsk\u00e9ho pal\u00e1ce, bank a obchod\u016f? V\u00edtejte v Dama\u0161ku 2024. Abych citoval Yogi Berra: \u201eJe to d\u00e9j\u00e0 vu, v\u0161echno znovu.\u201c<\/strong><\/p>\n

P\u0159izn\u00e1m se, \u017ee jsem p\u0159ekvapen, jak rychle se Asad\u016fv re\u017eim zhroutil. Prim\u00e1rn\u011b to v\u0161ak nebyl d\u016fsledek vojensk\u00e9ho tlaku ze strany teroristick\u00fdch bojovn\u00edk\u016f Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Ve h\u0159e bylo n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho: byla zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1na dohoda a Asad byl p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den, aby se vzdal sv\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy a ode\u0161el do Ruska.<\/p>\n

Lze si p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee z\u00e1tky od \u0161ampa\u0148sk\u00e9ho praskaj\u00ed v \u00fast\u0159ed\u00ed CIA v McLean ve Virginii a v \u00fast\u0159ed\u00ed MI-6 v Lond\u00fdn\u011b. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee tato operace p\u0159ed\u010dila i jejich o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed. Ale zku\u0161enosti z Ir\u00e1ku v roce 2003 a Libye v roce 2011 by m\u011bly b\u00fdt varov\u00e1n\u00edm, abychom k oslav\u00e1m p\u0159istupovali opatrn\u011b. Pro\u010d? Proto\u017ee Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham nyn\u00ed p\u0159evzal moc. Nam\u00edsto nastolen\u00ed m\u00edru a usm\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed zavede HTS p\u0159\u00edsn\u00e9 pr\u00e1vo \u0161ar\u00eda a potrest\u00e1 osoby obvin\u011bn\u00e9 z kac\u00ed\u0159stv\u00ed \u2013 co\u017e pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b povede k masivn\u00ed \u010distce velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti syrsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti. Samotn\u00e9 HTS se nav\u00edc st\u00e1v\u00e1 ter\u010dem teroristick\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f. Nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm osudem S\u00fdrie \u2013 alespo\u0148 v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm desetilet\u00ed \u2013 je chaos a rozklad.<\/p>\n

Kdo je HTS? Podle americk\u00e9ho ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed ve zpr\u00e1v\u011b\u00a0Annex of Statistical Information, Country Reports on Terrorism 2018<\/em>\u00a0:<\/p>\n

Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) vznikla v lednu 2017 slou\u010den\u00edm Jabhat Fateh al-Sham (d\u0159\u00edve Fronta al-Nusra), Fronty Ansar al-Din, Jaysh al-Sunna, Liwa al-Haqq a Hnut\u00ed Nour al-Din al-Zenki. V roce 2017 bylo 104 incident\u016f p\u0159\u00edmo p\u0159ips\u00e1no Front\u011b an-Nusra, 3 incidenty Liwa al-Haqq a 21 incident\u016f HTS. Tato tabulka shrnuje incidenty a ob\u011bti HTS a jej\u00edch \u010dlensk\u00fdch skupin.<\/em><\/p>\n

V n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm roce 2019 si spole\u010dnost HTS upevnila svou pov\u011bst jedn\u00e9 z \u201e10 nejlep\u0161\u00edch skupin zn\u00e1m\u00fdch pachatel\u016f\u201c na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b a tuto pozici si udr\u017eela a\u017e do roku 2022, co\u017e je posledn\u00ed rok, za kter\u00fd byla zpr\u00e1va zve\u0159ejn\u011bna.<\/p>\n

S\u00fdrii proto \u010dek\u00e1 bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u00e1 budoucnost, ve kter\u00e9 zemi vl\u00e1dne HTS, ale stabilita z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 vzd\u00e1len\u00fdm snem.<\/p>\n

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P\u0159esto\u017ee v roce 2019 provedla m\u00e9n\u011b \u00fatok\u016f ne\u017e v roce 2018, zabila mnohem v\u00edce lid\u00ed.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n
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Od sv\u00e9ho vzniku v roce 2017 v\u0161ak HTS hraje druh\u00e9 housle za ISIS, kter\u00fd je zodpov\u011bdn\u00fd za drtivou v\u011bt\u0161inu teroristick\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f v S\u00fdrii.<\/p>\n

HTS nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edtel \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 fundamentalistick\u00fdm, sunnitsko-salafistick\u00fdm hnut\u00edm. Pokud jde o ideologick\u00fd extremismus, je to bratranec osadnick\u00fdch skupin v Izraeli reprezentovan\u00fdch sionisty jako Becalel Smotrich \u2013 ti s nik\u00fdm ned\u011blaj\u00ed kompromisy. Na rozd\u00edl od Asada, kter\u00fd nechal k\u0159es\u0165ansk\u00e9 kostely otev\u0159en\u00e9 a chr\u00e1nil \u0161\u00editsk\u00e9 a alawitsk\u00e9 komunity, HTS pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b bude tyto skupiny pron\u00e1sledovat, ne-li rovnou vra\u017edit.\u00a0To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee proudy uprchl\u00edk\u016f budou proudit zp\u011bt do Libanonu, na sever do Turecka, na z\u00e1pad do Evropy a na v\u00fdchod do Ir\u00e1ku.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco Z\u00e1pad je zanepr\u00e1zdn\u011bn oslavami Assadova svr\u017een\u00ed jako \u00faderu Rusku \u2013 a \u0159eknu to jasn\u011b, nen\u00ed to v\u00fdsledek, kter\u00fd Moskva uv\u00edtala nebo cht\u011bla \u2013 Donald Trump a jeho poradci nech\u00e1pou, co se stalo. Trump na\u00a0Truth Social<\/a><\/em>\u00a0zve\u0159ejnil n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed\u00a0:<\/p>\n

Asad je pry\u010d. Utekl ze sv\u00e9 zem\u011b. Jeho ochr\u00e1nce Rusko, Rusko v \u010dele s Vladimirem Putinem u\u017e nem\u011blo z\u00e1jem ho chr\u00e1nit. Nebyl v\u016fbec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd d\u016fvod, aby tam Rusko bylo. O S\u00fdrii ztratili z\u00e1jem kv\u016fli Ukrajin\u011b, kde je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 600 000 rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f zran\u011bno nebo mrtv\u00fdch ve v\u00e1lce, kter\u00e1 nikdy nem\u011bla za\u010d\u00edt a mohla by pokra\u010dovat nav\u017edy.<\/em><\/p>\n

Rusko a \u00cdr\u00e1n jsou v sou\u010dasnosti v oslaben\u00e9m stavu, jeden kv\u016fli Ukrajin\u011b a \u0161patn\u00e9 ekonomice, druh\u00fd kv\u016fli Izraeli a jeho bojov\u00fdm \u00fasp\u011bch\u016fm. Zelenskyj a Ukrajina by se tak\u00e9 r\u00e1di dohodli a ukon\u010dili \u0161\u00edlenstv\u00ed. Ztratili sm\u011b\u0161n\u00fdch 400 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f a mnohem v\u00edce civilist\u016f. Okam\u017eit\u011b by m\u011blo doj\u00edt k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed a m\u011bla by za\u010d\u00edt jedn\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/em><\/p>\n

M\u00edsto aby uznal, \u017ee mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed teroristick\u00e1 organizace byla schopna p\u0159evz\u00edt kontrolu nad syrskou vl\u00e1dou, odd\u00e1v\u00e1 se Trump fantazii, \u017ee \u201eRusko je pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f oslabeno\u201c. Jsem si jist\u00fd, \u017ee to lid\u00e9 v Kremlu p\u0159ijali dob\u0159e. Vsad\u00edm se, \u017ee se t\u0159esou v bot\u00e1ch, kdy\u017e mocn\u00fd moloch Donald Trump vstoup\u00ed na sv\u011btovou sc\u00e9nu.<\/p>\n

Trumpovy ignorantsk\u00e9 koment\u00e1\u0159e o rusk\u00e9 ekonomice a jej\u00edm pokroku ve v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b zaru\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Putin nebude m\u00edt n\u00e1ladu sed\u011bt a vyjedn\u00e1vat s Trumpem nebo n\u011bkter\u00fdm z jeho nosi\u010d\u016f vody.<\/p>\n

Chaos, kter\u00fd zavl\u00e1dne v S\u00fdrii v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch dvou m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch, p\u0159inese v\u00edce \u0161kod a nebezpe\u010d\u00ed Turecku a Izraeli ne\u017e Rusku a \u00cdr\u00e1nu. Ano, svr\u017een\u00ed Asada bylo diplomatickou ranou pro Moskvu a Teher\u00e1n, ale vypo\u0159\u00e1dat se s vznikaj\u00edc\u00edmi bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmi riziky vl\u00e1dou pod veden\u00edm HTS? Tyto probl\u00e9my s hork\u00fdmi bramborami jsou nyn\u00ed probl\u00e9mem Turecka, Libanonu, Jord\u00e1nska, Ir\u00e1ku a Izraele. Rusko a \u00cdr\u00e1n mohou sed\u011bt a d\u00edvat se nebo vyu\u017e\u00edt zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace, aby pomohly rozdm\u00fdchat n\u00e1ladu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

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Pamatujete si na j\u00e1sav\u00e9 sc\u00e9ny, kdy CIA najala dav v Bagd\u00e1du, aby za\u00fato\u010dil na centr\u00e1ln\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67824,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[481,1503,147],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67823"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67823"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67823\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67824"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67823"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67823"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67823"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}