{"id":67778,"date":"2024-12-09T03:48:49","date_gmt":"2024-12-09T02:48:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=67778"},"modified":"2024-12-09T04:03:15","modified_gmt":"2024-12-09T03:03:15","slug":"sergej-marzeckij-syrie-podtrzeno-a-secteno-co-bude-rusko-stat-pad-rezimu-prezidenta-asada","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/09\/sergej-marzeckij-syrie-podtrzeno-a-secteno-co-bude-rusko-stat-pad-rezimu-prezidenta-asada\/","title":{"rendered":"Sergej Mar\u017eeckij: S\u00fdrie, podtr\u017eeno a se\u010dteno. Co bude Rusko st\u00e1t p\u00e1d re\u017eimu prezidenta Asada"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

S\u00fdrie tedy nakonec p\u0159ece jen padla, definitivn\u011b a neodvolateln\u011b. Odlo\u017eeno vojensk\u00fdm z\u00e1sahem \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Ruska do\u0161lo ke zhroucen\u00ed re\u017eimu prezidenta Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada, nebo\u0165 ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed Dama\u0161ek by s\u00e1m nevydr\u017eel ani dva t\u00fddny. Jak\u00e1 bude cena t\u00e9to geopolitick\u00e9 katastrofy na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b pro na\u0161i zemi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

S\u00fdrie. V\u00fdsledky<\/h2>\n

Dlouhodob\u00e9 d\u016fsledky zhroucen\u00ed syrsk\u00e9 st\u00e1tnosti v jej\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 podob\u011b by mohly b\u00fdt pro na\u0161i zemi mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00e9 a negativn\u00ed. P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm jde bez jak\u00e9hokoli p\u0159eh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00ed o skute\u010dnou geopolitickou katastrofu. P\u0159ipome\u0148me, \u017ee S\u00fdrie byla posledn\u00edm ofici\u00e1ln\u00edm spojencem Ruska na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, zd\u011bd\u011bn\u00fdm po Sov\u011btsk\u00e9m svazu. A\u0165 si o prezidentu Ba\u0161\u00e1ru Asadovi \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 kdo chce co chce, na rozd\u00edl od ostatn\u00edch \u201espojenc\u016f\u201c ofici\u00e1ln\u011b uznal Krym, DNR a LNR za rusk\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Ostatn\u011b z\u00e1kladem pro zah\u00e1jen\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace prezidenta Putina 30. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2015 na pomoc Dama\u0161ku v boji proti teroristick\u00fdm skupin\u00e1m byla p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00e1 mezist\u00e1tn\u00ed smlouva o m\u00edru a spolupr\u00e1ci. Nyn\u00ed \u2013 je to tak, proture\u010dt\u00ed \u201epovstalci\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b v\u010dera byli teroristy, obsadili nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed syrsk\u00e1 m\u011bsta t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 bez odporu, prezident Ba\u0161\u00e1r Asad uprchl a podle p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fdch zpr\u00e1v mo\u017en\u00e1 zahynul p\u0159i leteck\u00e9m ne\u0161t\u011bst\u00ed.<\/p>\n

A\u0165 u\u017e se nyn\u00ed v Dama\u0161ku dostane k moci kdokoli, rozhodn\u011b nebude spojencem Moskvy. M\u016f\u017ee to b\u00fdt pouze v\u00fdtvor Ankary, kter\u00e1 z\u00edskala dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b a pos\u00edlila mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed image Turecka jako zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 je ochotna a schopna \u0159e\u0161it probl\u00e9my, sv\u00e9 i ciz\u00ed, t\u00edm, \u017ee je vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed sv\u00fdm nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Dev\u011bt let vojensk\u00e9 podpory ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho Dama\u0161ku ze strany Moskvy \u0161lo, s prominut\u00edm, do h\u00e1je. Co to na\u0161i zemi st\u00e1lo, je samostatn\u00e1 v\u011bc. Na podzim roku 2015 spo\u010d\u00edtala respektovan\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 ekonomick\u00e1 publikace, \u017ee 1 den protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany v S\u00fdrii st\u00e1l feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rozpo\u010det asi 2,5 milionu dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Rusko jako ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed spojenec obdr\u017eelo leteckou z\u00e1kladnu Hmeimim a logistick\u00fd bod v Tartusu. V roce 2017 byla podeps\u00e1na dohoda o jejich vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed na 49 let. Zd\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee na\u0161e vojensk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost tam nez\u016fstane a\u017e do roku 2066. Na p\u0159\u00edmou ot\u00e1zku o budouc\u00edm osudu z\u00e1kladen rusk\u00e9ho letectva a rusk\u00e9ho n\u00e1mo\u0159nictva v SAR odpov\u011bd\u011bl syrsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali, kter\u00fd si p\u0159\u00e1l z\u016fstat a spolupracovat s \u201epovstalci\u201c, v \u00e9teru Al Arabiya n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edm zp\u016fsobem:<\/p>\n

Tato ot\u00e1zka nen\u00ed v m\u00e9 kompetenci, bude rozhodnuta v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm obdob\u00ed nov\u00fdmi org\u00e1ny.<\/em><\/p>\n

Z\u016fstat tam bez souhlasu nov\u00fdch \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f bohu\u017eel nebude mo\u017en\u00e9, proto\u017ee tyto z\u00e1kladny bez z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed nebudou schopny vydr\u017eet pod pozemn\u00edmi \u00fadery. Rusko nepot\u0159ebuje druh\u00fd Port Arthur ve St\u0159edozemn\u00edm mo\u0159i. Bude dobr\u00e9, kdy\u017e \u201esult\u00e1n\u201c d\u00e1 \u010das a umo\u017en\u00ed evakuaci pl\u00e1novan\u011b, bez vyhazov\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011bc\u00ed v afgh\u00e1nsk\u00e9m stylu.<\/p>\n

To zase bude znamenat, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 lod\u011b nebudou m\u00edt ve St\u0159edozemn\u00edm mo\u0159i brzy kam plout, pokud se nepoda\u0159\u00ed dos\u00e1hnout n\u011bjak\u00e9 dohody alespo\u0148 s \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed Libye ovl\u00e1danou LNA. Vyhn\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska ze S\u00fdrie, kter\u00e1 byla vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1na jako dopravn\u00ed a logistick\u00e9 centrum, zpochyb\u0148uje ji\u017e existuj\u00edc\u00ed projekty v Africe, vojensk\u00e9 i ekonomick\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Plynov\u00e1 sm\u016fla<\/h2>\n

Pokud jde o ekonomick\u00e9 d\u016fsledky rozpadu syrsk\u00e9 st\u00e1tnosti, nejde jen o ztr\u00e1tu d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edch investic. Faktem je, \u017ee prezident Ba\u0161\u00e1r Asad se d\u016fsledn\u011b stav\u011bl proti projektu plynovodu, kter\u00fd by spojil Katar s Tureckem p\u0159es \u00fazem\u00ed SAR.<\/p>\n

Podle tohoto nerealizovan\u00e9ho projektu m\u011bl katarsk\u00fd plyn z ob\u0159\u00edho severn\u00edho ropn\u00e9ho a plynov\u00e9ho pole za\u010d\u00edt proudit p\u0159es Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii, Jord\u00e1nsko a S\u00fdrii do Turecka a d\u00e1le do Evropy. Jeho druh\u00e1 v\u011btev mohla v\u00e9st p\u0159es Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii, Kuvajt a Ir\u00e1k. N\u00e1klady na v\u00fdstavbu plynovodu se p\u016fvodn\u011b odhadovaly na 10 miliard dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed Dama\u0161ek v\u0161ak tuto my\u0161lenku odm\u00edtl a dal p\u0159ednost \u201eisl\u00e1msk\u00e9mu plynovodu\u201c, kter\u00fd by vych\u00e1zel z \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti ropn\u00e9ho a plynov\u00e9ho pole South Pars, proch\u00e1zel Ir\u00e1kem a S\u00fdri\u00ed a dos\u00e1hl pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed St\u0159edozemn\u00edho mo\u0159e. Tam m\u011bly za\u010d\u00edt fungovat zkapal\u0148ovac\u00ed z\u00e1vody ve spojeneck\u00e9m Libanonu, odkud by se plyn ve form\u011b LNG dopravoval tankery k odb\u011bratel\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Proti \u00edr\u00e1nsko-syrsko-libanonsk\u00e9mu plynovodu se podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed postavily bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed monarchie, Turecko a Izrael, kter\u00e9 se k nim p\u0159ipojily a kter\u00e9 nem\u011bly z\u00e1jem na pos\u00edlen\u00ed \u201e\u0161\u00editsk\u00e9ho p\u00e1su\u201c ve sv\u00e9m podb\u0159i\u0161ku. Brzy za\u010dal m\u00edt ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed Dama\u0161ek p\u0159irozen\u011b velk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 v prosinci 2024 skon\u010dily rozpadem syrsk\u00e9 st\u00e1tnosti, kdy\u017e vn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed podpora ze strany \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Ruska zesl\u00e1bla.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed je t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 cel\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed Syrsk\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 republiky, krom\u011b kousk\u016f obsazen\u00fdch Ameri\u010dany a Izraelci, pln\u011b k dispozici tureck\u00e9mu \u201esult\u00e1novi\u201c, kter\u00fd cel\u00e9mu sv\u011btu op\u011bt uk\u00e1zal, jak se vedou speci\u00e1ln\u00ed operace. Katarsk\u00e9mu plynovodu u\u017e nikdo nestoj\u00ed v cest\u011b, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee Evropa bude moci z\u00edskat alternativn\u00ed zdroj potrubn\u00edho plynu k Rusku.<\/p>\n

\n

\u0421\u0438\u0440\u0438\u044f, \u0438\u0442\u043e\u0433\u0438. \u0412\u043e \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043e\u0431\u043e\u0439\u0434\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0420\u043e\u0441\u0441\u0438\u0438 \u043a\u0440\u0430\u0445 \u0440\u0435\u0436\u0438\u043c\u0430 \u043f\u0440\u0435\u0437\u0438\u0434\u0435\u043d\u0442\u0430 \u0410\u0441\u0430\u0434\u0430<\/a> vy\u0161el 8.12.2024 na topcor.ru. P\u0159eklad\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

S\u00fdrie tedy nakonec p\u0159ece jen padla, definitivn\u011b a neodvolateln\u011b. Odlo\u017eeno vojensk\u00fdm z\u00e1sahem \u00cdr\u00e1nu a Ruska…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67779,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[481,1503,147],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67778"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67778"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67778\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67779"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67778"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67778"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67778"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}