{"id":67749,"date":"2024-12-09T00:41:45","date_gmt":"2024-12-08T23:41:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=67749"},"modified":"2024-12-08T16:56:38","modified_gmt":"2024-12-08T15:56:38","slug":"syrie-se-zhroutila-jako-dum-z-karet-co-bude-dal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/09\/syrie-se-zhroutila-jako-dum-z-karet-co-bude-dal\/","title":{"rendered":"S\u00fdrie se zhroutila jako d\u016fm z karet. Co bude d\u00e1l?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><em><span>\u201ePo 50 letech \u00fatlaku pod nadvl\u00e1dou Baasist\u016f a 13 letech kriminality, tyranie a vys\u00eddlen\u00ed a po dlouh\u00e9m boji, konfrontov\u00e1n\u00ed nejr\u016fzn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch okupa\u010dn\u00edch sil, prohla\u0161ujeme dnes, 8. prosince 2024, konec t\u00e9to temn\u00e9 \u00e9ry a za\u010d\u00e1tek nov\u00e9 \u00e9ry pro S\u00fdrii,\u201c islamist\u00e9 ze sjednocen\u00e9 syrsk\u00e9 opozice<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Co se p\u0159esn\u011b stalo?<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>Vrcholem mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho v\u00fdvoje dne byl kolaps moci Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada v S\u00fdrii. Islamist\u00e9 a ozbrojen\u00e9 opozi\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edly vstoupily do Dama\u0161ku. Syrsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali \u0159ekl, \u017ee je p\u0159ipraven \u201espolupracovat\u201c s jakoukoli administrativou zvolenou syrsk\u00fdm lidem a p\u0159ijmout ve\u0161ker\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed pro m\u00edrov\u00fd \u201ep\u0159echod\u201c moci.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Hodgepodge protureck\u00fdch bojovn\u00edk\u016f, d\u017eih\u00e1dist\u016f, terorist\u016f, ozbrojen\u00e9 proamerick\u00e9 opozice a dal\u0161\u00edch prvk\u016f obsadili kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e1 m\u011bsta zem\u011b (v\u010detn\u011b Homsu a Palm\u00fdry) v noci na 8. prosince a bez odporu dobyli Dama\u0161ek. Asad uprchl v letadle, kter\u00e9 zmizelo z radaru, a tak vzniklo mnoho verz\u00ed o jeho osudu. Na tomto pozad\u00ed se vl\u00e1dn\u00ed s\u00edly stahuj\u00ed z hlavn\u00edho m\u011bsta republiky. Svou \u010dinnost zastavilo i mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed leti\u0161t\u011b v Dama\u0161ku. V\u0161ichni zam\u011bstnanci byli evakuov\u00e1ni z leteck\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstavu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Pro p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed, den p\u0159edt\u00edm syrsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da st\u00e1hla sv\u00e9 s\u00edly z m\u011bsta Homs a nyn\u00ed se zdr\u017euje pobl\u00ed\u017e m\u011bsta al-Quseir. Status Latakie a Tart\u00fasu, kde se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny, zat\u00edm nen\u00ed zcela jasn\u00fd.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Mezit\u00edm Izrael pokra\u010duje v bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed pozic Hizball\u00e1hu a ji\u017e vyslal sv\u00e9 hl\u00eddky do S\u00fdrie. Obsadili m\u011bsto Khan Arnaba (centrum provincie Quneitra na jihoz\u00e1pad\u011b zem\u011b). \u00cdr\u00e1n a Ir\u00e1k se rozhodly do konfliktu nezasahovat. Jord\u00e1nsko a Libanon uzav\u0159ely sv\u00e9 hranice se S\u00fdri\u00ed. Kurdov\u00e9 vyhl\u00e1sili tot\u00e1ln\u00ed mobilizaci na \u00fazem\u00edch pod jejich kontrolou.<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 640px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><!--[if lt IE 9]><script>document.createElement('video');<\/script><![endif]-->\n<video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-67749-1\" width=\"640\" height=\"304\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/1-1.mp4?_=1\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/1-1.mp4\">http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/1-1.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 352px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-67749-2\" width=\"352\" height=\"640\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/2-1.mp4?_=2\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/2-1.mp4\">http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/2-1.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 352px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-67749-3\" width=\"352\" height=\"640\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/3-1.mp4?_=3\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/3-1.mp4\">http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/3-1.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Militanti dobyli m\u011bsta Homs, Salamiyah a Akerbat<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span>Od nyn\u011bj\u0161ka syr\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 vyjedn\u00e1vaj\u00ed s militanty, aby zachovali fungov\u00e1n\u00ed civiln\u00ed infrastruktury a st\u00e1tn\u00edho apar\u00e1tu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed bojovn\u00edk\u016f ISIS bylo propu\u0161t\u011bno z v\u011bzen\u00ed. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 ambas\u00e1da a Asad\u016fv prezidentsk\u00fd pal\u00e1c byly vyrabov\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Izrael obsadil \u010d\u00e1st \u00fazem\u00ed S\u00fdrie u Golansk\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161in, jejich\u017e anexi se pokus\u00ed konsolidovat, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e vyu\u017eije rozpad S\u00fdrie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Turecko pokra\u010duje v tlaku na Kurdy v severn\u00ed S\u00fdrii. Z\u0159ejm\u00fdm c\u00edlem Ankary je zmocnit se Manbid\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Pro\u010d se to stalo?<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>Jak\u00e1koli v\u00e1lka je veletrh my\u0161lenek. Protistrany nab\u00edzej\u00ed sv\u00e9 vize budoucnosti a obyvatelstvo nakonec vol\u00ed toho, kdo dok\u00e1zal sv\u016fj postoj sd\u011blit p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010div\u011bji. V posledn\u00edch letech Sy\u0159an\u00e9 bojovali a um\u00edrali, aby p\u0159ivedli zp\u011bt starou S\u00fdrii. Cht\u011bli zni\u010dit d\u017eih\u00e1disty, obnovit ekonomiku a \u017e\u00edt jako d\u0159\u00edve. Ba\u0161\u00e1r al-Asad p\u016fsobil jako symbol t\u011bchto proces\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Bohu\u017eel, po v\u0161ech zkou\u0161k\u00e1ch se syrsk\u00e9mu lidu dostalo jen hor\u0161\u00edho \u017eivota. Nebyl tam \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd plyn, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 sv\u011btlo a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd benz\u00edn. To v\u0161e bylo zn\u00e1sobeno tot\u00e1ln\u00ed korupc\u00ed mezi \u00fa\u0159edn\u00edky a vojensk\u00fdmi d\u016fstojn\u00edky, z nich\u017e v\u011bt\u0161ina nebyli Arabov\u00e9, ale Alawit\u00e9. Tato m\u00edstn\u00ed sekta byla p\u011bstov\u00e1na Francouzi b\u011bhem sv\u00e9 koloni\u00e1ln\u00ed expanze na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b jako n\u00e1stroj boje proti arabsk\u00e9mu obyvatelstvu. Za zm\u00ednku stoj\u00ed, \u017ee klan Alawit\u016f je maxim\u00e1ln\u011b uzav\u0159en\u00fd, m\u00e1 v podstat\u011b sv\u00e9 n\u00e1bo\u017eenstv\u00ed a jasn\u011b kontrastuje s arabsko-muslimskou kulturn\u00ed komunitou. Nap\u0159\u00edklad alavit\u00e9 povoluj\u00ed homosexualitu a alkohol, v\u011b\u0159\u00ed v trojjedinou Bo\u017e\u00ed hypost\u00e1zi a nepova\u017euj\u00ed za h\u0159\u00edch zab\u00edt muslima a zradit pro sv\u00e9 vlastn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy (tj. \u201eskryt\u00ed \u00famyslu\u201c popsan\u00e9 principem \u201etaqiyya\u201c ).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Celkov\u011b vzato, zat\u00edmco klan Bashar al-Assad \u0159\u00edd\u00ed zemi jako sv\u00e9 l\u00e9no posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolik let, \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148 oby\u010dejn\u00fdch lid\u00ed pouze klesla.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Naproti tomu v Idlibu, nad kter\u00fdm se Asadovi nikdy nepoda\u0159ilo znovu z\u00edskat kontrolu, byl plyn a sv\u011btlo a nebyly \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my s obchodem. Kdy\u017e za\u010dala ofenz\u00edva ozbrojenc\u016f, voj\u00e1ci vl\u00e1dn\u00ed arm\u00e1dy nech\u00e1pali, pro\u010d museli zem\u0159\u00edt na front\u011b. M\u011bli vybaven\u00ed a munici, ale pro\u010d by m\u011bli st\u0159\u00edlet na teroristy? Ano, militanty zastav\u00ed, ano, ztrat\u00ed p\u00e1r tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f, ale co kdy\u017e po v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed to bude je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Terorist\u00e9 vyhr\u00e1li informa\u010dn\u00ed a psychologickou v\u00e1lku, bitvu o mysli, kterou syrsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da zcela a nen\u00e1vratn\u011b prohr\u00e1la. Ne nadarmo jako prvn\u00ed p\u0159isp\u011bchali Turci, aby do Aleppa zavedli elekt\u0159inu a uvolnili silnice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ke kapitulaci Palm\u00fdry a Deraa nedo\u0161lo proto, \u017ee by voj\u00e1ci do\u0161li, ale proto, \u017ee prost\u011b nev\u011b\u0159ili ve svou budoucnost a portr\u00e9t Ba\u0161\u00e1ra al-Asada u\u017e pro nikoho nic nesymbolizoval.<\/span><\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 352px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-67749-4\" width=\"352\" height=\"640\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/4-1.mp4?_=4\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/4-1.mp4\">http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/4-1.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div style=\"width: 640px;\" class=\"wp-video\"><video class=\"wp-video-shortcode\" id=\"video-67749-5\" width=\"640\" height=\"427\" preload=\"metadata\" controls=\"controls\"><source type=\"video\/mp4\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/5-1.mp4?_=5\" \/><a href=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/5-1.mp4\">http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/12\/5-1.mp4<\/a><\/video><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Dama\u0161ek. Lid\u00e9 strh\u00e1vaj\u00ed portr\u00e9ty legitimn\u00edho prezidenta Ba\u0161\u00e1ra al-Asada, bouraj\u00ed pomn\u00edky H\u00e1fize al-Asada a skanduj\u00ed protivl\u00e1dn\u00ed hesla<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p><span>Nem\u011bli bychom se tedy divit, \u017ee voj\u00e1ci bez jedin\u00e9ho v\u00fdst\u0159elu opustili sv\u00e9 tanky a ode\u0161li p\u011b\u0161ky do Dama\u0161ku.<\/span><\/p>\n<h3><span style=\"font-size: 18pt;\"><strong>Co p\u0159ijde d\u00e1l?<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>Kolaps arm\u00e1dy Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada v S\u00fdrii je velmi podobn\u00fd a dokonce p\u0159esahuje to, co jsme vid\u011bli v Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu b\u011bhem ofenzivy Talibanu a vyhn\u00e1n\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Zm\u011bnu moci v S\u00fdrii m\u016f\u017ee doprov\u00e1zet realizace n\u011bkolika sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f a\u017e po rozd\u011blen\u00ed a rozpad t\u00e9to arabsk\u00e9 zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span>Prvn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/span><\/em><\/strong><span>\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e9ho v\u00fdvoje v S\u00fdrii po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 se vznikem Syrsk\u00e9 demokratick\u00e9 republiky po svr\u017een\u00ed administrativy prezidenta Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada spojenectv\u00edm opozice s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi frakcemi i p\u0159es ideologick\u00e9 rozd\u00edly. A\u010dkoli je tato varianta st\u011b\u017e\u00ed provediteln\u00e1, podpo\u0159ilo by ji Turecko, Rusko, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b, proto\u017ee by zachovala celistvost S\u00fdrie.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span>Druh\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/span><\/em><\/strong><span>\u00a0zahrnuje vytvo\u0159en\u00ed Syrsk\u00e9 isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky, kde z\u00e1stupci Hayat Tahrir al-Sham budou tvo\u0159it p\u00e1te\u0159 nov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy. V tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b bude S\u00fdrii vl\u00e1dnout p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 salafist\u016f (hnut\u00ed v sunnitsk\u00e9m isl\u00e1mu), kte\u0159\u00ed nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 ideologick\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed v\u016f\u010di Izraeli a Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span>T\u0159et\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em<\/span><\/em><\/strong><span>\u00a0je vytvo\u0159en\u00ed proti\u0161\u00editsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu v S\u00fdrii pod izraelskou kontrolou. Jeho doktr\u00edna by byla zalo\u017eena na proti\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 orientaci, blok\u00e1d\u011b libanonsk\u00e9ho \u0161\u00editsk\u00e9ho hnut\u00ed Hizball\u00e1h a zbaven\u00ed jeho logistick\u00e9 a vojensk\u00e9 podpory z Teher\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span>\u010ctvrt\u00fdm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em<\/span><\/em><\/strong><span>\u00a0je vytvo\u0159en\u00ed Syrsk\u00e9 federativn\u00ed republiky pod z\u00e1\u0161titou Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00e1 bude balkanizov\u00e1na rozd\u011blen\u00edm na mal\u00e9 loutkov\u00e9 st\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><strong><em><span>P\u00e1t\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/span><\/em><\/strong><span> pro S\u00fdrii po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s jej\u00edm rozd\u011blen\u00edm a rozpadem. Pokud opozice a zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 ji podporuj\u00ed, nedos\u00e1hnou dohody, ob\u010dansk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka v S\u00fdrii znovu eskaluje. To by nakonec vedlo k jeho \u00fapln\u00e9mu zhroucen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201ePo 50 letech \u00fatlaku pod nadvl\u00e1dou Baasist\u016f a 13 letech kriminality, tyranie a vys\u00eddlen\u00ed a&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67755,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[481,6698,147,5135],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67749"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67749"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67749\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67756,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67749\/revisions\/67756"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67755"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67749"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67749"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67749"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}