{"id":67723,"date":"2024-12-08T06:39:50","date_gmt":"2024-12-08T05:39:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=67723"},"modified":"2024-12-08T06:39:50","modified_gmt":"2024-12-08T05:39:50","slug":"michael-svatos-putin-zaklada-alawitestan-je-jeho-cilem-hodit-vidle-do-trumpova-planu-usmirit","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/08\/michael-svatos-putin-zaklada-alawitestan-je-jeho-cilem-hodit-vidle-do-trumpova-planu-usmirit\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: Putin zakl\u00e1d\u00e1 \u201cAlawitestan\u201d? Je jeho c\u00edlem \u201chodit vidle\u201d do Trumpova pl\u00e1nu usm\u00ed\u0159it…"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Putin zakl\u00e1d\u00e1 \u201cAlawitestan\u201d? Je jeho c\u00edlem \u201chodit vidle\u201d do Trumpova pl\u00e1nu usm\u00ed\u0159it Saudskou Ar\u00e1bii s Izraelem? Putinova rafinovan\u00e1 ro\u0161\u00e1da p\u0159eskupen\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1tel okolo Izraele?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Podstatu sou\u010dasn\u00e9 Putinovy ro\u0161\u00e1dy kolo Izraele<\/a>\u00a0nejl\u00e9pe vysv\u011btluje tato mapa z roku 1922. S\u00fdrie je komplikovan\u00fd st\u00e1t, ve kter\u00e9m p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00e9 men\u0161iny Alavit\u016f vl\u00e1dnou v\u011bt\u0161inov\u00fdm sunit\u016fm.\u00a0Alavit\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed asi 13% syrsk\u00e9 populace, k\u0159es\u0165an\u00e9 asi 10%, Dr\u00fazov\u00e9 3%, a sunit\u00e9 74%<\/a>. Alavit\u00e9 jsou tak\u0159ka v\u00fdhradn\u011b us\u00eddleni v pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edm p\u00e1su S\u00fdrie a jsou od sunitsk\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1sti S\u00fdrie odd\u011bleni horami. Vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed rodina Asad\u016f (sami Al\u00e1vit\u00e9) pou\u017e\u00edvala Al\u00e1vity jako j\u00e1dro sv\u00fdch \u00fadern\u00fdch sil v syrsk\u00e9 ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, a Al\u00e1vit\u00e9 v ob\u010dansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lce utrp\u011bli zna\u010dn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty mlad\u00e9 populace, a je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce si znep\u0159\u00e1telili v\u011bt\u0161inov\u00e9 sunity, kte\u0159\u00ed je u\u017e tak nen\u00e1vid\u011bli.<\/p>\n

Nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 z\u00e1kladny a v\u0161echny p\u0159\u00edstavy se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed na \u00fazem\u00ed Al\u00e1vit\u016f (\u010derven\u00fd ov\u00e1l), a ofenz\u00edva sunitsk\u00fdch rebel\u016f m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed proti hlavn\u00edmi m\u011bstu, (zelen\u00e1 \u0161ipka), a \u00fazem\u00ed Al\u00e1vit\u016f se zat\u00edm vyh\u00fdb\u00e1. \u00datok sunitsk\u00fdch rebel\u016f, b\u00fdval\u00fdch terorist\u016f, p\u0159es pob\u0159e\u017en\u00ed hory na centrum Al\u00e1vitsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed se nyn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nep\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1. D\u016fvody jsou prost\u00e9, (1) Al\u00e1vit\u00e9, se na rozd\u00edl od vnitrozemsk\u00fdch sunit\u016f, ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed n\u00e1bo\u017eensk\u00fdch a odvetn\u00fdch repres\u00ed ze strany sunitsk\u00fdch rebel\u016f, a budou tak sv\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed s pomoc\u00ed Rus\u016f a Ir\u00e1nc\u016f tvrd\u011b br\u00e1nit. (2)\u00a0Horsk\u00fd ter\u00e9n umo\u017en\u00ed efektivn\u00ed obranu<\/a>. (3) Sunit\u0161t\u00ed rebelov\u00e9 jsou zat\u00edm po\u010detn\u011b velmi slab\u00ed, a mus\u00ed tak na \u201cosvobozen\u00fdch\u201d \u00fazem\u00edch rychle nab\u00edrat nov\u00e9 stoupence a nahrazovat p\u0159edchoz\u00ed Asadovskou administrativu sv\u00fdmi stoupenci. Tento procese v\u00fdstavby nov\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed administrativy sunitsk\u00fdch Rebel\u016f na osvobozen\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00edch vnitrozemsk\u00e9 S\u00fdrie poskytne pob\u0159e\u017en\u00edm Alavit\u016fm a jejich spojenc\u016fm Rus\u016fm a Ir\u00e1nc\u016fm dostate\u010dn\u00fd \u010das, aby se na odra\u017een\u00ed \u00fatoku sunit\u016f p\u0159es hory na sv\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed dob\u0159e p\u0159ipravili.<\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 se nyn\u00ed stahuj\u00ed do\u00a0Alawitestanu<\/a>, Hizball\u00e1h do Libanonu a Ir\u00e1nci S\u00fdrii opou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed je\u0161t\u011b sm\u011brem p\u0159es Ir\u00e1k. Jejich \u00fastup ze sunitsk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti S\u00fdrie je ur\u010dit\u011b d\u00e1n \u201c\u00fapln\u00fdm rozpadem syrsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy<\/a>\u201c, ale hlavn\u011b jejich \u201cp\u0159ekvapiv\u011b nulovou snahou\u201d vojensky Asad\u016fv re\u017eim \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b podpo\u0159it. A\u010dkoli z\u00e1padn\u00ed analytici tento \u00fastup Rus\u016f a jejich spojenc\u016f ze S\u00fdrie tradi\u010dn\u011b p\u0159isuzuj\u00ed jejich slabosti, zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee m\u00e1 sp\u00ed\u0161, co do \u010din\u011bn\u00ed, s p\u0159\u00edpravou na jejich novou strategii zam\u011b\u0159enou proti Trumpovi. Nastupuj\u00edc\u00ed Trumpova administrativa se netaj\u00ed \u00famyslem p\u0159et\u00e1hnout Saudskou Ar\u00e1bii do z\u00e1padn\u00ed koalice, a usm\u00ed\u0159it ji s Izraelem. Saudsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie je sunitsk\u00e1 velmoc, kde\u017eto Ir\u00e1n \u0161\u00editsk\u00e1. Putin, kter\u00fd v posledn\u00edch dvou letech provedl kavkazsk\u00fd gambit, a vym\u011bnil tradi\u010dn\u00ed ruskou podporu k\u0159es\u0165ansk\u00e9 Arm\u00e9nie za ekonomick\u00e9 spojenectv\u00ed s Tureckem a \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nem, a jejich usm\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed s Ir\u00e1nem, z\u0159ejm\u011b nyn\u00ed ob\u011btoval podobn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem \u201cnemilovan\u00fd\u201d Asad\u016fv \u201c\u0161\u00editsk\u00fd\u201d re\u017eim v \u201csunitsk\u00e9\u201d S\u00fdrii. Putinov\u00fdm c\u00edlem je z\u0159ejm\u011b udr\u017eet sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9, leteck\u00e9 a n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed z\u00e1kladny v Alawitestanu za ka\u017edou cenu, proto\u017ee bez nich by nebylo Rusko schopno hr\u00e1t na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b svoji tradi\u010dn\u00ed velmocenskou roli dostate\u010dn\u011b razantn\u011b, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 p\u0159ed\u00e1n\u00edm vl\u00e1dy nad sunitskou \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed S\u00fdrie sunitsk\u00fdm rebel\u016fm, maxim\u00e1ln\u011b otupit n\u00e1bo\u017eensko-politick\u00e9 r\u016fznice mezi \u0161\u00edity a sunity, tak aby pomoc\u00ed jejich rozdm\u00fdch\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed nemohli Trump ani Izrael, hr\u00e1t na Saudskou kartu. Jakmile zmiz\u00ed asadovsk\u00e9 t\u0159enice v S\u00fdrii, z\u016fstane pouze dominantn\u00ed konflikt v Gaze mezi Izraelem a Palestinci, a ten efektivn\u011b znemo\u017en\u00ed politick\u00fd man\u00e9vr Saudsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie do pro-izraelsk\u00e9 Trumpovy z\u00e1padn\u00ed Aliance.<\/p>\n

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Foto: Trump nad\u011bluje Izraeli st\u00e1tn\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed S\u00fdrie!\u00a0Zdroj.<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Po kavkazsk\u00e9m gambitu, tak Putin hraje syrsk\u00fd gambit. Rusko m\u00e1 dostate\u010dnou ekonomickou i vojenskou s\u00edlu, aby Alawitestanu poskytlo dostate\u010dn\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed zdroje, (\u017eije v n\u011bm jen necel\u00fdch 3 milionu obyvatel), i ochranu, a naklonilo si tak r\u016fstem \u017eivotn\u00ed \u00farovn\u011b tamn\u00ed \u0161\u00edity, nyn\u00ed ob\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed se sunitsk\u00e9 odvety. Jakmile syr\u0161t\u00ed rebel\u0161t\u00ed sunit\u00e9 ovl\u00e1dnou Dama\u0161ek dostanou se na linii dotyku s Izraelci. Vyvstane p\u0159ed nimi ot\u00e1zka, zda se soust\u0159edit na osvobozen\u00ed Izraelem okupovan\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed S\u00fdrie na Golansk\u00fdch v\u00fd\u0161in\u00e1ch, kter\u00e9 v roce 2019 Trump, jako p\u0159edstavitel jedin\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu sv\u011bta,\u00a0uznal za sou\u010d\u00e1st \u00fazem\u00ed Izraele<\/a>, a nebo, zda se pokusit obsadit \u0161\u00editsk\u00fd Alawitestan i s rusk\u00fdmi z\u00e1kladnami. Proto\u017ee jak Turecko, tak Rusko a Ir\u00e1n u\u017e deklarovaly, \u017ee podporuj\u00ed pouze \u201c\u00fazemn\u00ed celistvost S\u00fdrie\u201d, nebude Alawistestan nejsp\u00ed\u0161 vyhla\u0161ovat samostatnost, ale bude sp\u00ed\u0161e po\u017eadovat \u201csilnou autonomii v budouc\u00ed sunitsk\u00e9 S\u00fdrii\u201d. Putin\u016fv syrsk\u00fd gambit, tak m\u016f\u017ee proti Izraeli a Trumpov\u00fdm pl\u00e1n\u016fm shrom\u00e1\u017edit v\u00edce nep\u0159\u00e1tel, ne\u017e podpora Asadova re\u017eimu. Trump nav\u00edc bude muset nejprve vy\u0159e\u0161it Palestinskou ot\u00e1zku, a to se zat\u00edm \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9mu politikovi sv\u011bta nepoda\u0159ilo, ne\u017e se bude moci pustit do \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed saudsk\u00e9 ot\u00e1zky.<\/p>\n

Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Putin zakl\u00e1d\u00e1 \u201cAlawitestan\u201d? Je jeho c\u00edlem \u201chodit vidle\u201d do Trumpova pl\u00e1nu usm\u00ed\u0159it Saudskou Ar\u00e1bii s…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":25341,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,107,102,147,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67723"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67723"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67723\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25341"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67723"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67723"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67723"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}