{"id":67537,"date":"2024-12-06T00:42:15","date_gmt":"2024-12-05T23:42:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=67537"},"modified":"2024-12-05T15:26:03","modified_gmt":"2024-12-05T14:26:03","slug":"andrew-korybko-zelenskeho-flip-flop-za-podminek-primeri-je-falesny-ustupek","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/06\/andrew-korybko-zelenskeho-flip-flop-za-podminek-primeri-je-falesny-ustupek\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Zelensk\u00e9ho Flip-Flop za podm\u00ednek p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed je fale\u0161n\u00fd \u00fastupek"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Ukrajina st\u00e1le z\u016fstane de facto \u010dlenem NATO, dokud z\u016fstanou v platnosti jej\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky s \u010dleny bloku.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zelenskyj ned\u00e1vno\u00a0zanev\u0159el\u00a0<\/a>na podm\u00ednky p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, kdy\u017e nazna\u010dil, \u017ee by souhlasil se zastaven\u00edm nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bnou za p\u0159ijet\u00ed Ukrajiny do NATO, i kdy\u017e\u00a0bez \u010dl\u00e1nku 5,\u00a0<\/a>kter\u00fd by se vztahoval na cel\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 si n\u00e1rokuje jako sv\u00e9, dokud konflikt pokra\u010duje. Ukrajinsk\u00e9 ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed pot\u00e9 vydalo\u00a0prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>o tom, \u017ee jejich zem\u011b nep\u0159ijme \u017e\u00e1dnou alternativu k \u010dlenstv\u00ed v NATO. Kreml tento po\u017eadavek p\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u011b ozna\u010dil za\u00a0nep\u0159ijateln\u00fd\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

To se shodovalo s gener\u00e1ln\u00edm tajemn\u00edkem NATO Ruttem,\u00a0kter\u00fd objasnil\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee jeho blok se nyn\u00ed zam\u011b\u0159uje na vyzbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny, co\u017e potvrdilo zpr\u00e1vy z\u00a0Le Monde\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee n\u011bkolik \u010dlen\u016f, jako je Ma\u010farsko, N\u011bmecko a dokonce i USA, je proti vstupu Ukrajiny v tuto chv\u00edli. \u0160ir\u0161\u00ed kontext se t\u00fdk\u00e1 toho, \u017ee Putin kone\u010dn\u011b\u00a0vy\u0161plhal po \u017eeb\u0159\u00ed\u010dku eskalace\u00a0<\/a>pot\u00e9, co povolil historick\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed nadzvukov\u00e9 st\u0159ely Oreshnik st\u0159edn\u00edho doletu schopn\u00e9ho MIRV v boji pot\u00e9, co USA nechaly Ukrajinu pou\u017e\u00edvat jej\u00ed ATACMS na \u00fazem\u00ed Ruska p\u0159ed rokem 2014.<\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b to, co se ztratilo mezi nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi zpr\u00e1vami o Zelensk\u00e9ho \u017eabce za podm\u00ednek p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, je skute\u010dnost, \u017ee jde vlastn\u011b jen o fale\u0161n\u00fd \u00fastupek, proto\u017ee neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 \u0161ance, \u017ee by dobyl v\u0161echna ztracen\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed sv\u00e9 zem\u011b, a nav\u00edc st\u00e1le po\u017eaduje \u010clenstv\u00ed v NATO, kter\u00e9 je ko\u0159enem tohoto konfliktu. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 je Ukrajina ji\u017e pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b de facto \u010dlenem NATO pot\u00e9, co si v uplynul\u00e9m roce s mnoha sv\u00fdmi \u010dleny zajistila \u0159\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch z\u00e1ruk, kter\u00e9\u00a0sv\u00fdm duchem p\u0159ipom\u00ednaj\u00ed\u00a0\u010dl\u00e1nek 5 .<\/a><\/p>\n

O tom je tato klauzule popul\u00e1rn\u011b myln\u011b prezentov\u00e1na jako zavazuj\u00edc\u00ed zem\u011b k vysl\u00e1n\u00ed voj\u00e1k\u016f na podporu spojenc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou pod \u00fatokem, i kdy\u017e ve skute\u010dnosti je pouze zavazuje poskytnout jakoukoli podporu, kterou pova\u017euj\u00ed za nezbytnou. Bezpe\u010dnost zaru\u010duje, \u017ee si zajistila institucionalizaci st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed podpory t\u011bchto zem\u00ed pro Ukrajinu ve form\u011b zbran\u00ed, sd\u00edlen\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed a dal\u0161\u00ed pomoci, kter\u00e1 je v podstat\u011b stejn\u00e1 jako \u010dl\u00e1nek 5, ale bez jak\u00e9hokoli implikovan\u00e9ho (kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9ho slova) tlaku na vysl\u00e1n\u00ed jednotek, jako je pln\u00e9 \u010dlenstv\u00ed. nese.<\/p>\n

Dokud tyto dohody z\u016fstanou v platnosti, pak zmrazen\u00ed konfliktu i bez toho, aby Ukrajina form\u00e1ln\u011b vstoupila do NATO, by st\u00e1le p\u0159edstavovalo souhlas Ruska s faktick\u00fdm \u010dlenstv\u00edm, jak bylo vysv\u011btleno, i kdy\u017e pro Rusko bude velmi obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159im\u011bt Ukrajinu, aby tyto pakty ukon\u010dila. jej\u00ed partne\u0159i, aby to p\u0159ijali.\u00a0N\u011bmecko\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed v\u00fdpov\u011b\u010f do \u0161esti m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f od ozn\u00e1men\u00ed bez jak\u00fdchkoliv podm\u00ednek, zat\u00edmco\u00a0Polsko\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0USA\u00a0<\/a>uv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed a prov\u00e1d\u011bc\u00ed dohody z\u016fstanou v platnosti.<\/p>\n

Podle prvn\u00edho \u201eUkon\u010den\u00ed neovlivn\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00edch \u010dinnost\u00ed nebo projekt\u016f, o kter\u00fdch bylo rozhodnuto p\u0159ed datem jeho ukon\u010den\u00ed, pokud Ukrajina a Polsko nerozhodnou jinak\u201c, zat\u00edmco druh\u00fd uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee \u201ejak\u00e1koli prov\u00e1d\u011bc\u00ed dohoda nebo ujedn\u00e1n\u00ed uzav\u0159en\u00e9 mezi smluvn\u00edmi stranami v souladu s podm\u00ednkami t\u00e9to dohody z\u016fstane nad\u00e1le v platnosti podle jej\u00edch vlastn\u00edch podm\u00ednek, pokud nen\u00ed v podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bc\u00ed dohody nebo ujedn\u00e1n\u00ed uvedeno jinak.\u201c<\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, i v nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee by Rusko donutilo Zelensk\u00e9ho nebo kohokoli jeho n\u00e1stupce, aby tyto pakty ukon\u010dil, Polsko a USA by mohly st\u00e1le jednostrann\u011b implementovat jejich \u010d\u00e1sti podle sv\u00fdch pr\u00e1vn\u00edch v\u00fdklad\u016f. To by hypoteticky mohlo m\u00edt podobu toho, \u017ee by si pod z\u00e1minkou n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti vytesali na z\u00e1padn\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b z\u00e1stupn\u00fd st\u00e1t, aby zabr\u00e1nili rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed rusk\u00fdch jednotek na hranic\u00edch NATO, pokud se n\u00e1rodn\u00ed vl\u00e1da n\u011bjak dostane pod vliv Kremlu.<\/p>\n

Je pravda, \u017ee by museli m\u00edt politickou v\u016fli skute\u010dn\u011b rozm\u00edstit voj\u00e1ky do zem\u011b a nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda by kv\u016fli tomu byli ochotni riskovat t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lku, pokud by Kreml signalizoval, \u017ee m\u00e1 politickou v\u016fli zas\u00e1hnout ty z jejich voj\u00e1k\u016f. kter\u00e1 by mohla ofici\u00e1ln\u011b vstoupit na Ukrajinu, ale st\u00e1le to nelze vylou\u010dit. V souladu s t\u00edm se v\u011bt\u0161ina nov\u011b vznikaj\u00edc\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f kone\u010dn\u00e9ho konce tohoto konfliktu p\u0159ikl\u00e1n\u00ed k bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm z\u00e1ruk\u00e1m Ukrajiny se zachov\u00e1n\u00edm platnosti NATO, co\u017e vede k jej\u00edmu pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edmu de facto \u010dlenstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jedin\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak se tomu vyhnout, je, \u017ee Rusko dos\u00e1hne vojensk\u00e9ho pr\u016flomu, kter\u00fd mu umo\u017en\u00ed donutit Zelensk\u00e9ho nebo kohokoli, kdo by mohl b\u00fdt jeho n\u00e1stupcem, aby tyto pakty ukon\u010dil, a Z\u00e1pad (hlavn\u011b USA a Polsko) bude bu\u010f odrazen od z\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed konven\u010dn\u00ed arm\u00e1dy. intervence, \u00fastup pod rusk\u00fdm \u00fatokem, pokud j\u00edm projdou, nebo tam budou rozhodn\u011b pora\u017eeni v hork\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, kter\u00e1 jaksi nen\u00ed jadern\u00e1. Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by se tento sled ud\u00e1lost\u00ed rozvinul, pokud by nedo\u0161lo k n\u011bjak\u00e9mu nep\u0159edv\u00eddan\u00e9mu v\u00fdvoji.<\/p>\n

V souladu s t\u00edm, i kdyby Rusko dos\u00e1hlo sv\u00fdch \u010dty\u0159 maximalistick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f obnovit \u00fastavn\u00ed neutralitu Ukrajiny, demilitarizovat tuto zemi, denacifikovat ji a nechat Kyjev uznat ztr\u00e1tu sv\u00fdch p\u011bti b\u00fdval\u00fdch region\u016f, Ukrajina st\u00e1le z\u016fstane de facto \u010dlenem NATO, pokud tyto bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky z\u016fstanou. v platnosti. Zelenskyj proto nep\u0159ipou\u0161t\u00ed nic v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho t\u00edm, \u017ee by se obr\u00e1til na podm\u00ednky p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed. Rusko bu\u010f p\u0159ijme tuto novou vojensko-strategickou realitu, nebo se bude muset uch\u00fdlit k brnksmanstv\u00ed, aby se ji pokusilo zm\u011bnit.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Ukrajina st\u00e1le z\u016fstane de facto \u010dlenem NATO, dokud z\u016fstanou v platnosti jej\u00ed bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed z\u00e1ruky s…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67540,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,565,39,2671,8281,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67537"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67537"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67537\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67539,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67537\/revisions\/67539"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67540"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67537"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67537"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67537"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}