{"id":67486,"date":"2024-12-05T00:46:24","date_gmt":"2024-12-04T23:46:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=67486"},"modified":"2024-12-04T18:57:50","modified_gmt":"2024-12-04T17:57:50","slug":"zbynek-fiala-rozpocet-uz-mame-ted-jeste-ty-penize","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/05\/zbynek-fiala-rozpocet-uz-mame-ted-jeste-ty-penize\/","title":{"rendered":"Zbyn\u011bk Fiala: Rozpo\u010det u\u017e m\u00e1me, te\u010f je\u0161t\u011b ty pen\u00edze"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Fialova vl\u00e1da si p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 zvykla na \u017eivot podle pravidla feldkur\u00e1ta Katze.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tak st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok u\u017e \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b pro\u0161el sn\u011bmovnou, ale n\u011bjak se nechce tento proces ozna\u010dovat za nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u00e1tek demokracie. Byla to sp\u00ed\u0161 potupa zdrav\u00e9ho rozumu, kde my\u0161len\u00ed bylo vytla\u010deno hlasov\u00e1n\u00edm. \u010cesk\u00e1 demokracie m\u00e1 jist\u00e1 specifika: My jsme siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a vy dr\u017ete hubu.<\/p>\n

Pod\u00edvejme se na ten rozpo\u010det tak\u0159\u00edkaj\u00edc p\u0159es palec.<\/p>\n

Podzimn\u00ed v\u011b\u0161tba (listopadov\u00e1 predikce Ministerstva financ\u00ed \u010cR) slibuje, \u017ee na konci roku dos\u00e1hne leto\u0161n\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst 1,1 procenta a p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok se vy\u0161plh\u00e1 na 2,5 procenta. Kdo v\u0161ak doma nem\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161nou sadu vonn\u00fdch ty\u010dinek, m\u016f\u017ee budoucnost vid\u011bt jinak.<\/p>\n

U na\u0161ich nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edch soused\u016f v\u00a0N\u011bmecku o r\u016fstu nikdo neuva\u017euje, sta\u010dilo by, kdyby podniky p\u0159e\u017eily a lidi nep\u0159i\u0161li o pr\u00e1ci. Pond\u011bln\u00ed varovn\u00e1 st\u00e1vka ve Volkswagenu m\u00ed\u0159ila proti tomu, \u017ee nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed zam\u011bstnavatel v\u00a0nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 ekonomice nen\u00ed schopen sl\u00edbit ani tohle.<\/p>\n

Zd\u011b\u0161en\u00ed jsou pochopiteln\u011b i podnikatel\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed vid\u00ed budoucnost st\u00e1le \u010dern\u011bji. M\u011b\u0159\u00ed se to indexem podnikatelsk\u00e9 d\u016fv\u011bry, kter\u00fd d\u00e1v\u00e1 dohromady nejrespektovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd v\u00fdzkum\u00e1k IFO. Index je u\u017e dlouho hluboce pod nulou, ale v\u00a0listopadu se pono\u0159il je\u0161t\u011b o n\u011bco n\u00ed\u017ee z\u00a0m\u00ednus 28,2 na m\u00ednus 30,4 bodu. Nula je, \u017ee bude stejn\u011b, pod nulou jsou zhor\u0161en\u00ed. Nad n\u011bmeckou statistikou si vybavuji star\u00fd vtip, podle kter\u00e9ho jen pesimista pochybuje, \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b h\u016f\u0159. Ale m\u016f\u017ee, usm\u00edv\u00e1 se optimista.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se pod\u00edv\u00e1me na z\u00e1kladn\u00ed konstrukci \u010desk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu, tak makroekonomick\u00e1 predikce, o kterou se op\u00edr\u00e1, po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s\u00a0r\u016fstem spot\u0159eby a dovozu. M\u00e1me a vyd\u00e1me? Ne, zapl\u00e1cne se to dal\u0161\u00edm dluhem za \u010dtvrt bilionu korun. Fialova vl\u00e1da se tvrdo\u0161\u00edjn\u011b dr\u017e\u00ed \u201eKatzova pravidla<\/em>\u201c \u2013 To se n\u00e1m to hoduje, kdy\u017e n\u00e1m ciz\u00ed lidi p\u016fj\u010dujou.<\/p>\n

M\u00e1 to jednu slabinu. Ve \u0160vejkovi nech\u00e1 feldkur\u00e1t Katz dot\u011brn\u00e9ho v\u011b\u0159itele vyhodit z\u00a0domu, ale sou\u010dasn\u00fd pom\u011br sil je p\u0159esn\u011b opa\u010dn\u00fd. Pokud ztrat\u00edme schopnost spl\u00e1cet, co\u017e je p\u0159edstava, kter\u00e1 mus\u00ed ministra financ\u00ed nejrychleji se zadlu\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed zem\u011b v\u00a0EU budit ze sna, p\u0159ijdeme i o to m\u00e1lo, co n\u00e1m je\u0161t\u011b zbylo.<\/p>\n

Pokud by se naplnila Stanjurova podzimn\u00ed v\u011b\u0161tba, pak hrub\u00fd dom\u00e1c\u00ed produkt \u010dili v\u0161echno, co prote\u010de trhem v\u00a0p\u0159iznan\u00fdch cen\u00e1ch, vzroste o 400 miliard korun z\u00a0leto\u0161n\u00edch 8,0 na p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch 8,4 bilionu korun. Pro zaj\u00edmavost, roku 2021 \u010dinil HDP 6,3 bilionu korun. Vid\u00edme tak p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstek b\u011bhem Fialovy vl\u00e1dy (pokud se do\u017eije konce p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku a v\u011b\u0161tba se napln\u00ed) o 2,1 bilionu korun. Kde se ty prachy vzaly?<\/p>\n

Jsou to pen\u00edze pln\u00e9 bublin, kter\u00e9 tam nafoukala inflace. Kdy\u017e je vz\u00e1jemn\u011b pod\u011bl\u00edte, zjist\u00edte, \u017ee to druh\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo je o t\u0159etinu v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed. B\u011b\u017en\u00e1 p\u0159edstava, o co n\u00e1s v\u00a0dom\u00e1cnosti p\u0159ipravila inflace posledn\u00edch let, je zhruba stejn\u011b velk\u00e1. \u010cesk\u00e1 ekonomika samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nen\u00ed jen m\u00e1slo (to by ten rozd\u00edl by mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed) a p\u0159\u00edr\u016fstek cen v\u00a0hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m ob\u011bhu se po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 jinak. Pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 slo\u017eit\u00fd statistick\u00fd ukazatel s\u00a0matouc\u00edm n\u00e1zvem\u00a0defl\u00e1tor<\/em>\u00a0(jako kdyby se smr\u0161\u0165oval). Ale obrovsk\u00e1 role inflace je tu patrn\u00e1 i bez doktor\u00e1tu z\u00a0ekonomie.<\/p>\n

Kde se tedy vzaly ty bubliny? Inu, hlavn\u011b z\u00a0dluhu. Roku 2021 st\u00e1tn\u00ed zadlu\u017een\u00ed \u010dinilo 2,6 miliardy korun. V\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce by m\u011blo vysko\u010dit na 3,8 bilionu korun. Znovu si zopakujeme onu matematickou operaci, kterou bychom m\u011bli m\u00edt na o\u010d\u00edch \u010dast\u011bji, a ob\u011b \u010d\u00edsla pod\u011bl\u00edme. Zji\u0161\u0165ujeme, \u017ee tenhle skok je mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed. Zat\u00edmco HDP m\u00e1 vzr\u016fst mezi lety 2021 a 2025 o 33 procent, st\u00e1tn\u00ed zadlu\u017eenost m\u00e1 vysko\u010dit dokonce o 46 procent.<\/p>\n

Nezapome\u0148me tak\u00e9 na pen\u00edze, kter\u00e9 ze zem\u011b odt\u00e9kaj\u00ed. Kdy\u017e se se\u010dtou ohla\u0161ovan\u00e9 dividendy a skryt\u00e9 \u017ed\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed \u010desk\u00fdch dodavatel\u016f n\u00edzk\u00fdmi vnitropodnikov\u00fdmi cenami a vysok\u00fdmi n\u00e1klady za \u00fadajn\u00e9 slu\u017eby zahrani\u010dn\u00edch matek, ur\u010dit\u011b to p\u0159es\u00e1hne p\u016fl bilionu korun ro\u010dn\u011b. Na druhou stranu zase m\u00e1me n\u011bjak\u00fd \u010dist\u00fd p\u0159\u00edjem z\u00a0evropsk\u00fdch fond\u016f zhruba na \u00farovni p\u011bti procent toho, o co na\u0161\u00edm pod\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdm postaven\u00edm p\u0159ijdeme. Z\u00a0t\u011bch pen\u011bz se pak n\u011bco vr\u00e1t\u00ed, a\u017e n\u011bkoho zav\u0159ou, ale to u\u017e jsou opravdu jen drobn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Zam\u011b\u0159me se rad\u011bji na slunn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1st budoucnosti, na o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fd r\u016fst spot\u0159eby. Lidi budou kupovat v\u00edc? Ne, budou vyd\u00e1vat v\u00edc pen\u011bz. P\u0159esto\u017ee sv\u011btov\u00e9 ceny energi\u00ed klesaj\u00ed, u n\u00e1s jsou nad\u00e1le n\u00e1sobn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159ed kriz\u00ed. A dal\u0161\u00ed metodou, jak lidem pou\u0161t\u011bt \u017eilou, jsou te\u010f rostouc\u00ed ceny regulovan\u00fdch slu\u017eeb kolem energie, tedy distribuce a tak.<\/p>\n

Valorizace d\u016fchod\u016f byla okle\u0161t\u011bna. \u0160koln\u00edci ani ukl\u00edze\u010dky nedostanou v\u00edc, pokud ze \u0161koly neute\u010dou. Je ale pokus hodit probl\u00e9m na obce. Pokud se to poda\u0159\u00ed, obce v\u00e1s budou muset p\u0159ipravit o n\u011bco jin\u00e9ho. Kr\u00e1tce, spot\u0159eba poroste \u2013 budete se m\u00edt l\u00edp. Pen\u00edze v\u00e1m ute\u010dou \u2013 budete se m\u00edt h\u016f\u0159.<\/p>\n

Nediv\u00edm se, \u017ee se o st\u00e1tn\u00edm rozpo\u010dtu ve sn\u011bmovn\u011b tak dlouze debatovalo, kdy\u017e se st\u0159\u00eddala ob\u011b tvrzen\u00ed bez \u0161anc\u00ed d\u00e1t to n\u011bjak dohromady. Muselo rozhodnout hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed, ve kter\u00e9m vl\u00e1da vyhr\u00e1la o dva hlasy, tak\u017ee ani nepot\u0159ebovala p\u0159eb\u011bhl\u00edka Vondr\u00e1ka (d\u0159\u00edve ANO).<\/p>\n

Jak vid\u00edte, je to nakonec docela jednoduch\u00e9. Ani ty v\u011b\u0161tby hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 budoucnosti net\u0159eba obalovat n\u011bjak\u00fdm tajemnem. Sta\u010d\u00ed se pod\u00edvat na fotky nekone\u010dn\u00fdch n\u011bmeck\u00fdch parkovi\u0161\u0165 s\u00a0neprodan\u00fdmi automobily.<\/p>\n

Ti se\u010dt\u011blej\u0161\u00ed v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee i u n\u00e1s je tahounem ekonomiky automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl. Tomu se te\u010f docela da\u0159\u00ed. Mo\u017en\u00e1 je v\u0161ak jen o n\u011bjak\u00fd ten t\u00fdden zp\u00e1tky. Kdyby to m\u011blo prob\u00edhat jinak, zem\u00ed by h\u0159m\u011bly inovativn\u00ed strategie, p\u0159ed kter\u00fdmi i Musk bledne z\u00e1vist\u00ed. Pen\u00edze by se sm\u011b\u0159ovaly ne na v\u00e1lku a zbrojen\u00ed, ale na vznik nov\u00fdch obor\u016f, podporu rekvalifikace a poradenstv\u00ed, a taky na rozvojov\u00e9 p\u016fj\u010dky do za\u010d\u00e1tku.<\/p>\n

M\u00edsto toho tu h\u0159m\u00ed ml\u010den\u00ed absolutn\u00ed bezradnosti. Ale pen\u00edze vyd\u00e1vat um\u00edme, a nen\u00ed to jen na st\u00edha\u010dky. Tak nap\u0159\u00edklad obsluha st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu, jen \u00faroky, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 spl\u00e1cen\u00ed, u\u017e bude pot\u0159ebovat sto miliard korun. \u010ctvrtinu toho vysn\u011bn\u00e9ho r\u016fstu.<\/p>\n

Zbyn\u011bk Fiala<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Fialova vl\u00e1da si p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 zvykla na \u017eivot podle pravidla feldkur\u00e1ta Katze. Tak st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det na…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":51119,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[45,2718,1503,477],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67486"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67486"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67486\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/51119"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}