{"id":67472,"date":"2024-12-05T00:43:05","date_gmt":"2024-12-04T23:43:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=67472"},"modified":"2024-12-04T18:19:49","modified_gmt":"2024-12-04T17:19:49","slug":"klimaticke-zmeny-za-poslednich-4-000-let-tato-data-odbouravaji-hysterii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/05\/klimaticke-zmeny-za-poslednich-4-000-let-tato-data-odbouravaji-hysterii\/","title":{"rendered":"Klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny za posledn\u00edch 4 000 let: Tato data odbour\u00e1vaj\u00ed hysterii"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Jen za posledn\u00edch 4000 let do\u0161lo k masivn\u00edm zm\u011bn\u00e1m klimatu. Po tepl\u00e9m obdob\u00ed p\u0159i\u0161la \u201emal\u00e1 doba ledov\u00e1\u201c. Nyn\u00ed teploty op\u011bt stoupaj\u00ed ke klimatick\u00e9mu optimu, jak tomu bylo ji\u017e v minulosti.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 hysterie kolem \u00fadajn\u00e9 \u201eklimatick\u00e9 katastrofy\u201c se jev\u00ed ve zcela jin\u00e9m sv\u011btle, kdy\u017e se \u010dlov\u011bk odv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed nahl\u00e9dnout do minulosti. To, co paleoklimatologie odhaluje za posledn\u00edch 4000 let, nen\u00ed nic men\u0161\u00edho ne\u017e j\u00edzda na horsk\u00e9 dr\u00e1ze teplot \u2013 a tedy i lidsk\u00e9 civilizace.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Proxy teploty pro holoc\u00e9n z Antarktidy (Dome C, Jouzel et al., 2007), Gr\u00f3nska (Vinther) a Indon\u00e9sie (Rosenthal). V\u00fdrazn\u00e1 je klimatick\u00e1 doba neoglaci\u00e1ln\u00ed. Popisuje pokles teploty na severn\u00ed polokouli.<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201eMal\u00e1 doba ledov\u00e1\u201c mezi lety 1645 a 1715 p\u016fsobiv\u011b ukazuje, co znamenaj\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 extr\u00e9my. Zat\u00edmco dnes ka\u017ed\u00e1 desetina stupn\u011b oteplen\u00ed produkuje apokalyptick\u00e9 titulky, tehdy lid\u00e9 za\u017e\u00edvali skute\u010dn\u00e9 klimatick\u00e9 peklo. V Lond\u00fdn\u011b zamrzla Tem\u017ee, v \u010c\u00edn\u011b polovina populace zem\u0159ela hlady a ve st\u0159edn\u00ed Evrop\u011b byly za mizern\u00e9 po\u010das\u00ed obvi\u0148ov\u00e1ny masy \u201e\u010darod\u011bjnic\u201c. Thomas Hobbes nep\u0159eh\u00e1n\u011bl, kdy\u017e popisoval \u017eivot jako \u201eosam\u011bl\u00fd, mizern\u00fd, nechutn\u00fd, \u017eivo\u010di\u0161n\u00fd a kr\u00e1tk\u00fd\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teplotn\u00ed z\u00e1znamy z Gr\u00f3nska ( Vinther<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) a Indon\u00e9sie (\u00a0<\/span>Rosenthal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) jsou obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b informativn\u00ed\u00a0. Dokazuj\u00ed, \u017ee zm\u011bny klimatu nejsou v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b jednotn\u00e9. Zat\u00edmco severn\u00ed polokoule proch\u00e1zela dlouhou f\u00e1z\u00ed ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed v takzvan\u00e9m \u201eneoglaci\u00e1lu\u201c, ji\u017en\u00ed polokoule \u010dasto vybo\u010dovala z \u0159ady.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Rekonstrukce teploty Vinther (\u010dern\u00e1) a Rosenthalova (zelen\u00e1) ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdmi historick\u00fdmi ud\u00e1lostmi. Anom\u00e1lie HadCRUT4 pro oblast Gr\u00f3nska je zobrazena p\u0159eru\u0161ovanou \u010dervenou \u010d\u00e1rou a teplota 500metrov\u00e9ho Makassarsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu, zalo\u017een\u00e1 na \u00fadaj\u00edch z univerzity v Hamburku, je zobrazena jako \u010derven\u00fd r\u00e1me\u010dek.<\/span><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Historick\u00e9 z\u00e1znamy jasn\u011b ukazuj\u00ed: tepl\u00e1 obdob\u00ed byla pro lidstvo obvykle dobou prosperity. Vikingov\u00e9 m\u011bli sv\u016fj rozkv\u011bt b\u011bhem st\u0159edov\u011bk\u00e9ho tepl\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed (800\u20131000 n. l.), \u0159\u00edmsk\u00e1 \u0159\u00ed\u0161e expandovala b\u011bhem \u0159\u00edmsk\u00e9ho tepl\u00e9ho obdob\u00ed (500 p\u0159. n. l. a\u017e 400 p\u0159. n. l.) a minojsk\u00e9 tepl\u00e9 obdob\u00ed (1700\u20131 000 p\u0159. n. l.) zaznamenalo vzestup prvn\u00ed velk\u00e1 evropsk\u00e1 civilizace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pozoruhodn\u00e9 je tak\u00e9 to, \u017ee po\u010das\u00ed b\u011bhem Mal\u00e9 doby ledov\u00e9 bylo v\u00fdrazn\u011b extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e dnes. Bou\u0159ky, sucha a ob\u010dasn\u00e9 vlny veder lidem ztrp\u010dovaly \u017eivot. Teplotn\u00ed gradient mezi tropy a p\u00f3ly byl strm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u2013 okolnost, kter\u00e1 podporovala bou\u0159ky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co to znamen\u00e1 pro sou\u010dasnou debatu o klimatu?\u00a0<\/span>Historick\u00e1 fakta<\/span><\/a>\u00a0mluv\u00ed sama za sebe a nelze je ideologicky vysv\u011btlit. Archeologie a historie vykresluj\u00ed jasn\u00fd obr\u00e1zek: lidem se da\u0159\u00ed l\u00e9pe v teplej\u0161\u00edch obdob\u00edch ne\u017e v chladn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch. Nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e1 pravda pro v\u0161echny, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u00eddaj\u00ed konec sv\u011bta, jakmile teplom\u011br stoupne o jeden stupe\u0148.<\/span><\/p>\n

Historie se nemus\u00ed opakovat, ale \u0159\u00edd\u00ed se rozpoznateln\u00fdmi vzory. M\u00edsto paniky by bylo moudr\u00e9 pou\u010dit se z minulosti. Proto\u017ee jedna v\u011bc je jist\u00e1: klima se bude i nad\u00e1le m\u011bnit \u2013 s lidsk\u00fdm svolen\u00edm nebo bez n\u011bj. Fakt, kter\u00fd jsem tak\u00e9\u00a0podrobn\u011b vysv\u011btlil ve sv\u00e9 knize \u201e\u00a0<\/span>CO2 nen\u00ed n\u00e1\u0161 nep\u0159\u00edtel \u201c.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

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 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jen za posledn\u00edch 4000 let do\u0161lo k masivn\u00edm zm\u011bn\u00e1m klimatu. Po tepl\u00e9m obdob\u00ed p\u0159i\u0161la \u201emal\u00e1…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67473,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,2692,398,873],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67472"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67472"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67472\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67473"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67472"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67472"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67472"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}