{"id":67344,"date":"2024-12-03T00:38:19","date_gmt":"2024-12-02T23:38:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=67344"},"modified":"2024-12-03T05:56:51","modified_gmt":"2024-12-03T04:56:51","slug":"scott-ritter-7232-stupnu-fahrenheita","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/03\/scott-ritter-7232-stupnu-fahrenheita\/","title":{"rendered":"Scott Ritter: 7232 stup\u0148\u016f Fahrenheita"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-1fb4c2c elementor-widget elementor-widget-theme-post-content\" data-id=\"1fb4c2c\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"theme-post-content.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<p><strong>\u201e<i>Slunce p\u00e1lilo ka\u017ed\u00fd den. Sp\u00e1lilo \u010cas. Sv\u011bt se \u0159\u00edtil v kruhu a ot\u00e1\u010del se kolem sv\u00e9 osy a \u010das m\u011bl stejn\u011b pln\u00e9 ruce pr\u00e1ce s p\u00e1len\u00edm let a lid\u00ed, bez jeho pomoci. Tak\u017ee kdy\u017e p\u00e1lil v\u011bci s ohnivci a slunce p\u00e1lilo \u010cas, znamenalo to, \u017ee ho\u0159elo v\u0161echno!<\/i>\u201c<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Ray Bradbury, 451 stup\u0148\u016f Fahrenheita<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Annie Jacobsonov\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9 knize \u201e<a href=\"https:\/\/bookshop.org\/p\/books\/nuclear-war-a-scenario-annie-jacobsen\/20335598?ean=9780593476093\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"external noopener\">Jadern\u00e1 v\u00e1lka: sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159<\/a>\u201c\u201a popisuje prvn\u00edch n\u011bkolik vte\u0159in v\u00fdbuchu termojadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b o s\u00edle jedn\u00e9 megatuny nad americk\u00fdm m\u011bstem jako za\u010d\u00e1tek \u2018z\u00e1blesku sv\u011btla a \u017e\u00e1ru tak ohromn\u00e9ho, \u017ee to lidsk\u00e1 mysl nedok\u00e1\u017ee pochopit. Sto a osmdes\u00e1t stup\u0148\u016f Fahrenheita je \u010dty\u0159ikr\u00e1t nebo p\u011btkr\u00e1t vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed teplota, ne\u017e jak\u00e1 je ve st\u0159edu Slunce.\u201c Ohniv\u00e1 koule, kter\u00e1 vznik\u00e1 p\u0159i tomto v\u00fdbuchu, je tak intenzivn\u00ed, \u201e\u017ee betonov\u00e9 povrchy exploduj\u00ed, kovov\u00e9 p\u0159edm\u011bty se roztav\u00ed nebo vypa\u0159\u00ed, k\u00e1men se rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed, lid\u00e9 se okam\u017eit\u011b p\u0159em\u011bn\u00ed na ho\u0159\u00edc\u00ed uhl\u00edk\u201c.<\/p>\n<p>Rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin na zased\u00e1n\u00ed Organizace Smlouvy o kolektivn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti (CSTO), kter\u00e9 se konalo tento \u010dtvrtek v kaza\u0161sk\u00e9m hlavn\u00edm m\u011bst\u011b Astan\u011b, prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee nov\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 balistick\u00e1 raketa st\u0159edn\u00edho doletu Ore\u0161n\u00edk, kter\u00e1 byla pou\u017eita k \u00faderu na ukrajinsk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd v\u00fdrobn\u00ed z\u00e1vod u m\u011bsta Dn\u011bpropetrovsk, m\u00e1 ni\u010divou s\u00edlu srovnatelnou s jadernou zbran\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eDes\u00edtky bojov\u00fdch hlavic, samonav\u00e1d\u011bc\u00ed jednotky \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na c\u00edl rychlost\u00ed 10 Mach\u016f (desetin\u00e1sobek rychlosti zvuku),\u201c uvedl Putin. \u201eTo je asi t\u0159i kilometry za sekundu. Teplota \u00fadern\u00fdch prvk\u016f dosahuje 4000 stup\u0148\u016f. Pokud m\u011b pam\u011b\u0165 neklame,\u201c poznamenal Putin, \u201cteplota na povrchu Slunce je 5500-6000 stup\u0148\u016f. Proto se v\u0161e, co je v epicentru v\u00fdbuchu, rozd\u011bl\u00ed na frakce, na element\u00e1rn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stice, v\u0161e se v podstat\u011b zm\u011bn\u00ed na prach.\u201c<\/p>\n<p>Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, rusk\u00fd prezident prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee pou\u017eit\u00ed n\u011bkolika raket Ore\u0161nik p\u0159i jednom \u00faderu by bylo svou ni\u010divou silou srovnateln\u00e9 s jadernou zbran\u00ed.<\/p>\n<div class=\"karta\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zvedavec.news\/images\/24\/fafrenheit-7232-1.webp\" alt=\"[Hiro\u0161ima b...]\" width=\"580\" height=\"399\" \/><figcaption><em>Hiro\u0161ima bezprost\u0159edn\u011b po \u00fatoku atomovou bombou, 6. srpna 1945.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Obrazy, kter\u00e9 Annie Jacobsonov\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9 knize p\u0159edkl\u00e1d\u00e1, jsou tak naprosto hr\u016fzn\u00e9, \u017ee p\u0159esahuj\u00ed schopnost v\u011bt\u0161iny lid\u00ed je pochopit, nato\u017e pou\u017e\u00edt p\u0159\u00edklady z re\u00e1ln\u00e9ho \u017eivota, kter\u00e9 umo\u017e\u0148uj\u00ed alespo\u0148 trochu intelektu\u00e1ln\u00edho porozum\u011bn\u00ed. Proto kdy\u017e Vladimir Putin pronesl sv\u00e9 analogick\u00e9 tvrzen\u00ed o srovnateln\u00e9 ni\u010div\u00e9 s\u00edle vod\u00edkov\u00e9 bomby a konven\u010dn\u00ed hlavice rakety Ore\u0161nik, mozek \u010dlov\u011bka se odklon\u00ed od nep\u0159edstaviteln\u00e9ho k praktick\u00e9mu.<\/p>\n<p>\u00datok raketou Ore\u0161nik na tov\u00e1rnu Ju\u017ema\u0161 u Dn\u011bpropetrovska p\u0159inesl ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed vizu\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1b\u011bry \u0161esti samostatn\u00fdch dopadov\u00fdch \u201eud\u00e1lost\u00ed\u201c, z nich\u017e ka\u017ed\u00e1 se skl\u00e1dala ze \u0161esti sv\u011bt\u00e9lkuj\u00edc\u00edch \u201ety\u010d\u00ed\u201c dopadaj\u00edc\u00edch do are\u00e1lu tov\u00e1rny. Rusk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da nazna\u010dila, \u017ee \u0161kody zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 t\u00edmto \u00fatokem jsou zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed; Ukrajinci naopak minimalizovali zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 \u0161kody jako zanedbateln\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p>Teoreticky je ni\u010div\u00fd potenci\u00e1l kinetick\u00fdch \u201ety\u010d\u00ed\u201c dopadaj\u00edc\u00edch na Zemi hypersonickou rychlost\u00ed obrovsk\u00fd. Studie americk\u00e9ho letectva z roku 2003 o takzvan\u00fdch \u201esvazc\u00edch hyperrychlostn\u00edch ty\u010d\u00ed\u201c (Hypervelocity Rod Bundles, HRB) p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dala, \u017ee wolframov\u00e9 ty\u010de o rozm\u011brech 20 stop kr\u00e1t 6 stop by p\u0159i svr\u017een\u00ed z vesm\u00edrn\u00e9 plo\u0161iny a dopadu na Zemi rychlost\u00ed desetin\u00e1sobku rychlosti zvuku zp\u016fsobily v\u00fdsledky odpov\u00eddaj\u00edc\u00ed jadern\u00e9mu v\u00fdbuchu.<\/p>\n<p>V roce 2018 \u010d\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed v\u011bdci ze Severo\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 univerzity se s\u00eddlem ve m\u011bst\u011b Tchaj-j\u00fcan v provincii \u0160an-si ve spolupr\u00e1ci s univerzitn\u00edm \u00dastavem pro v\u00fdzkum inteligentn\u00edch zbran\u00ed zku\u0161ebn\u011b odp\u00e1lili wolframovou ty\u010d z nejmenovan\u00e9 v\u00fd\u0161kov\u00e9 plo\u0161iny. P\u0159i testu byla wolframov\u00e1 ty\u010d o hmotnosti 140 kilogram\u016f vyst\u0159elena rychlost\u00ed p\u0159es \u010dty\u0159i kilometry za sekundu a vytvo\u0159ila kr\u00e1ter o hloubce t\u0159i metry a \u0161\u00ed\u0159ce p\u0159es \u010dty\u0159i a p\u016fl metru \u2013 co\u017e zdaleka neodpov\u00edd\u00e1 \u00fa\u010dinku, kter\u00fd bychom o\u010dek\u00e1vali od jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Krom\u011b toho se penetra\u010dn\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek wolframov\u00e9 ty\u010de sn\u00ed\u017eil p\u0159i rychlostech p\u0159esahuj\u00edc\u00edch t\u0159iap\u016fln\u00e1sobek rychlosti zvuku.<\/p>\n<div class=\"karta\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zvedavec.news\/images\/24\/fafrenheit-7232-2.webp\" alt=\"[Submunice ...]\" width=\"580\" height=\"326\" \/><figcaption><em>Submunice Oreshnik dopadaj\u00edc\u00ed na Dn\u011bpropetrovsk 21. listopadu 2024.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Fyzika obklopuj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinky n\u00e1lo\u017ee Oreshnik z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 matouc\u00ed i pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed str\u00e1vili cel\u00fd \u017eivot studiem fyziky takov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Dr. Theodore Postol, odborn\u00edk na zbran\u011b z MIT, provedl n\u011bkolik p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u00fdch studi\u00ed o Oreshniku, kter\u00e9 odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed hodnocen\u00ed v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk\u016f ze Severo\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 univerzity.<\/p>\n<p>Ru\u0161t\u00ed odborn\u00edci v\u0161ak hovo\u0159ili o pokroc\u00edch, kter\u00fdch Rusko dos\u00e1hlo v materi\u00e1lov\u00fdch v\u011bd\u00e1ch spojen\u00fdch s v\u00fdkonem materi\u00e1l\u016f p\u0159i hypersonick\u00e9 rychlosti, pokroc\u00edch, kter\u00e9 mohou zm\u011bnit danou fyziku (nap\u0159\u00edklad ty\u010d z \u010dist\u00e9ho wolframu p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e1 americk\u00fdm letectvem a testovan\u00e1 \u010c\u00ed\u0148any mohla m\u00edt v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Oreshniku povlak z pokro\u010dil\u00e9 slitiny tvo\u0159en\u00e9 karbidem tantalu a karbidem hafnia, co\u017e jsou materi\u00e1ly pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00e9 Ruskem p\u0159i operac\u00edch n\u00e1vratu z vesm\u00edru, kde je \u017e\u00e1douc\u00ed pohlcov\u00e1n\u00ed tepla).<\/p>\n<p>Rusov\u00e9 poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee \u201ety\u010de\u201c Oreshnik, bez ohledu na jejich p\u0159esn\u00e9 slo\u017een\u00ed, by se po zah\u0159\u00e1t\u00ed na 4 000 stup\u0148\u016f Celsia (7 232 stup\u0148\u016f Fahrenheita) p\u0159i kontaktu vypa\u0159ily z oceli a betonu, v\u010detn\u011b \u017eelezobetonu. \u201eVypa\u0159ilo by se,\u201c jak poznamenal prezident Putin, \u201cv\u0161echno, co je v epicentru v\u00fdbuchu, se rozd\u011bl\u00ed na frakce, na element\u00e1rn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stice, v\u0161echno se v podstat\u011b prom\u011bn\u00ed v prach.\u201c<\/p>\n<p>Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed ot\u00e1zkou z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1, jak velkou oblast zahrnuje \u201eepicentrum v\u00fdbuchu\u201c? Ukrajina je p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b zdr\u017eenliv\u00e1, pokud jde o dolo\u017een\u00ed sv\u00fdch tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee Ore\u0161nik zp\u016fsobil \u201eminim\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161kody\u201c, a pouze konstatuje, \u017ee hlavice, kter\u00e9 zas\u00e1hly Dn\u011bpropetrovsk, nenesly \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 v\u00fdbu\u0161niny, a proto nezp\u016fsobily v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 \u0161kody. S t\u00edmto z\u00e1v\u011brem se ztoto\u017enili i n\u011bme\u010dt\u00ed odborn\u00edci komentuj\u00edc\u00ed situaci v \u010dasopise Bild. Jeffrey Lewis, \u0159editel Programu pro ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed zbran\u00ed ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Asii v Centru Jamese Martina pro studium ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed zbran\u00ed na Middlebury Institute of International Studies v Kalifornii, v ned\u00e1vn\u00e9m rozhovoru pro agenturu Reuters k Ore\u0161niku poznamenal: \u201eJe to nov\u00e1 schopnost, ale nen\u00ed to nov\u00e1 schopnost, kter\u00e1 by p\u0159edstavovala dramatickou zm\u011bnu ve zp\u016fsobu v\u00fdvoje konven\u010dn\u00edch zbran\u00ed.\u201c Pokra\u010doval: \u201eJe to \u0159ada star\u00fdch technologi\u00ed, kter\u00e9 byly spojeny nov\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem.\u201c<\/p>\n<div class=\"karta\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zvedavec.news\/images\/24\/fafrenheit-7232-3.webp\" alt=\"[Trosky z O...]\" width=\"580\" height=\"387\" \/><figcaption><em>Trosky z Ore\u0161niku nalezen\u00e9 na Ukrajin\u011b<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Lewis dodal, \u017ee pou\u017eit\u00ed Oreshniku s konven\u010dn\u00edmi hlavicemi je drah\u00fdm prost\u0159edkem \u201ek dosa\u017een\u00ed ne tak velk\u00e9ho zni\u010den\u00ed\u201c, a poznamenal, \u017ee vzhledem k n\u00e1klad\u016fm spojen\u00fdm s balistick\u00fdmi raketami t\u0159\u00eddy Oreshnik bylo pou\u017eit\u00ed tohoto typu zbran\u011b k zasa\u017een\u00ed Ukrajiny pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ur\u010deno sp\u00ed\u0161e k dosa\u017een\u00ed psychologick\u00e9ho efektu ne\u017e vojensk\u00e9ho dopadu. \u201eKdyby byla ze sv\u00e9 podstaty d\u011bsiv\u00e1, [Putin] by ji prost\u011b pou\u017eil. Ale to nen\u00ed \u00fapln\u011b dosta\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed,\u201c \u0159ekl Lewis. \u201eMusel ji pou\u017e\u00edt a pak ud\u011blat tiskovou konferenci a pak ud\u011blat dal\u0161\u00ed tiskovou konferenci a \u0159\u00edct: &#8218;Hej, tahle v\u011bc je opravdu d\u011bsiv\u00e1, m\u011bli byste se b\u00e1t&#8216;.\u201c<\/p>\n<p>Lewisova anal\u00fdza je sice p\u0159ezkoumateln\u00e1 (jeho tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee Ore\u0161nik byl prost\u011b jen sn\u016f\u0161kou \u201estar\u00fdch technologi\u00ed\u201c, kter\u00e9 byly \u201eposkl\u00e1d\u00e1ny nov\u00fdmi zp\u016fsoby\u201c, je vyvr\u00e1ceno rusk\u00fdmi prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edmi a d\u016fkazy \u2013 jeho anal\u00fdza n\u00e1vratov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu je sofistikovan\u00e1 a nebere v \u00favahu rusk\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy, kter\u00e9 nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Ore\u0161nik vyu\u017e\u00edval nov\u00e9 nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 postrkovac\u00ed prost\u0159edky neboli IPBV, v ru\u0161tin\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00e9 jako blok individualnogo razvedeniya (neboli BIR). Stejn\u011b tak se zd\u00e1, \u017ee Lewisova kritika pouze papou\u0161kuje ukrajinsk\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed bojov\u00fdch \u0161kod, ani\u017e by se pokusila hloub\u011bji proniknout do nov\u00fdch technologi\u00ed spojen\u00fdch s kinetick\u00fdmi ty\u010demi pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdmi jednotkou Oreshnik.<\/p>\n<div class=\"karta\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zvedavec.news\/images\/24\/fafrenheit-7232-4.webp\" alt=\"[Sch\u00e9ma boj...]\" width=\"580\" height=\"327\" \/><figcaption><em>Sch\u00e9ma bojov\u00e9 hlavice Oreshnik od Theodora Postola zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed novou ruskou technologii BIR.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>(Je t\u0159eba poznamenat, \u017ee Theodore Postol p\u0159i prov\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy tyto nov\u00e9 technologie do sv\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce zahrnul).<\/p>\n<p>V tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 probl\u00e9m \u2013 zat\u00edmco prezident Putin nepochybn\u011b pou\u017eil Oreshnik jako varov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b a jej\u00edm z\u00e1padn\u00edm spojenc\u016fm p\u0159ed n\u00e1sledky \u00fader\u016f na rusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed zbran\u011bmi vyroben\u00fdmi a \u0159\u00edzen\u00fdmi v USA a Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii, jako jsou ATACMS a Storm Shadow, odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed hodnota Oreshniku z\u00e1vis\u00ed v\u00fdhradn\u011b na jeho schopnosti zp\u016fsobit \u0161kody takov\u00e9ho rozsahu, \u017ee Ukrajina a jej\u00ed spojenci by se p\u0159i anal\u00fdze rizika a p\u0159\u00ednosu n\u00e1sledk\u016f pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed \u00fader\u016f na Rusko raketami ATACMS a Storm Shadow rozhodli vyhnout se eskalaci.<\/p>\n<p>Hodnocen\u00ed, jako jsou ta, kter\u00e1 vypracovaly den\u00edky Bild a Reuters, jsou-li podpo\u0159ena prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edmi ukrajinsk\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f, d\u00e1vaj\u00ed za pravdu n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee Ore\u0161nik byl jen \u0161t\u011bkot, ale m\u00e1lo nebo v\u016fbec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd kousanec. Toto sm\u00fd\u0161len\u00ed vedlo k tomu, \u017ee Ukrajina s po\u017eehn\u00e1n\u00edm a za asistence sv\u00fdch p\u00e1n\u016f z USA a Spojen\u00e9ho kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed pokra\u010duje v \u00faderech na c\u00edle v Kursk\u00e9 oblasti pomoc\u00ed raket ATACMS.<\/p>\n<p>To zase vedlo k tomu, \u017ee rusk\u00fd prezident Putin varoval, \u017ee Rusko m\u016f\u017ee znovu zas\u00e1hnout Ukrajinu jednou nebo v\u00edce raketami Ore\u0161nik. Putin nazna\u010dil, \u017ee mezi c\u00edle by mohla pat\u0159it vojensk\u00e1, pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 a st\u00e1tn\u00ed rozhodovac\u00ed centra, v\u010detn\u011b Bankovsk\u00e9 ulice v Kyjev\u011b, kde se nach\u00e1z\u00ed s\u00eddlo ukrajinsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy.<\/p>\n<div class=\"karta\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zvedavec.news\/images\/24\/fafrenheit-7232-5.webp\" alt=\"[Budova ukr...]\" width=\"580\" height=\"435\" \/><figcaption><em>Budova ukrajinsk\u00e9 prezidentsk\u00e9 administrativy, Bankova ulice, Kyjev.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>Je v z\u00e1jmu Ruska, aby v\u00fdsledky takov\u00e9ho \u00fatoku byly viditeln\u00e9 pro celosv\u011btov\u00e9 publikum, a t\u00edm negovalo anal\u00fdzy z\u00e1padn\u00edch expert\u016f, jako je Jeffrey Lewis. Pokud by Ore\u0161nik, vyp\u00e1len\u00fd jednotliv\u011b nebo jako salva z v\u00edce raket, mohl ukrajinsk\u00fdm a z\u00e1padn\u00edm p\u0159edstavitel\u016fm vnuknout my\u0161lenku o marnosti pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed jejich raketov\u00fdch \u00fader\u016f na Rusko, pak by takov\u00e1 eskalace m\u011bla sv\u016fj v\u00fdznam.<\/p>\n<p>Pokud v\u0161ak bude dopad Oreshniku skryt\u00fd nebo \u2013 co\u017e je pro Rusko je\u0161t\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed \u2013 bude podporovat nep\u0159\u00edli\u0161 lichotiv\u00e9 hodnocen\u00ed Jeffreyho Lewise, pak bude odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed hodnota Oreshniku zanedbateln\u00e1, co\u017e povzbud\u00ed Ukrajinu k tomu, aby zv\u00fd\u0161ila rozsah a m\u00edru sv\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f na Rusko, a Rusko se dostane do situace, kdy bude muset vzhledem k politick\u00e9mu kapit\u00e1lu, kter\u00fd ji\u017e investovalo do snahy odradit ukrajinsk\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky, eskalovat svou odpov\u011b\u010f. To by mohlo zahrnovat pou\u017eit\u00ed nov\u00fdch konven\u010dn\u00edch zbran\u00ed s obrovskou ni\u010divou schopnost\u00ed, jako je termobarick\u00e1 zbra\u0148 \u201eotec v\u0161ech bomb\u201c nebo hypersonick\u00fd kluzn\u00fd prost\u0159edek Avangard.<\/p>\n<p>Eskalace v\u0161ak plod\u00ed eskalaci, a pokud Rusko nebude schopno odradit Ukrajinu a jej\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed spojence od \u00fatoku na sv\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed pomoc\u00ed ATACMS a Storm Shadow (a v nejbli\u017e\u0161\u00edch dnech mo\u017en\u00e1 i raket SCALP dodan\u00fdch Franci\u00ed), pak se v ur\u010dit\u00e9m okam\u017eiku stane sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed eskala\u010dn\u00ed rovnice i ot\u00e1zka jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed.<\/p>\n<div class=\"karta\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zvedavec.news\/images\/24\/fafrenheit-7232-6.webp\" alt=\"[Rusk\u00fd sn\u00edm...]\" width=\"580\" height=\"326\" \/><figcaption><em>Rusk\u00fd sn\u00edmek rakety Ore\u0161nik, kter\u00e1 byla odp\u00e1lena 21. listopadu 2024.<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u0160patnou zpr\u00e1vou pro Rusko je, \u017ee americk\u00e1 zpravodajsk\u00e1 komunita provedla v pr\u016fb\u011bhu n\u011bkolika posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f n\u011bkolik hodnocen\u00ed, kter\u00e1 dosp\u011bla k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee Rusko by v reakci na ukrajinsk\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed raket ATACMS a Storm Shadow k \u00fatoku na Rusko jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b nepou\u017eilo. Tento z\u00e1v\u011br byl p\u0159ijat B\u00edl\u00fdm domem a Kongresem, co\u017e vysv\u011btluje t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 neexistuj\u00edc\u00ed odpor z americk\u00fdch politick\u00fdch kruh\u016f proti rozhodnut\u00ed umo\u017enit Ukrajin\u011b \u00fatok na Rusko.<\/p>\n<p>Hodnocen\u00ed americk\u00fdch zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb se op\u00edr\u00e1 o p\u0159edstavu, \u017ee Rusko se m\u00edsto toho bude sna\u017eit eskalaci ATACMS\/Storm Shadow vyrovnat eskalac\u00ed vlastn\u00ed \u2013 z nich\u017e prvn\u00ed bylo pou\u017eit\u00ed raket Oreshnik.<\/p>\n<p>Za sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho stavu v\u011bc\u00ed se zd\u00e1, \u017ee Rusku zb\u00fdvaj\u00ed dv\u011b, mo\u017en\u00e1 t\u0159i kola konven\u010dn\u00ed eskalace, pokud jde o odvetu za pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed \u00fatoky. Ty by mohly b\u00fdt vy\u010derp\u00e1ny do poloviny prosince, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee mo\u017enost \u2013 vzhledem k zjevn\u00e9mu sm\u00fd\u0161len\u00ed v Kyjev\u011b, Bruselu a Washingtonu \u2013 jadern\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bny, kter\u00e1 by p\u0159edch\u00e1zela V\u00e1noc\u016fm, je zcela re\u00e1ln\u00e1.<\/p>\n<p>Neschopnost a\/nebo neochota z\u00e1padn\u00edch p\u00e1n\u016f Ukrajiny pochopit d\u016fsledky selh\u00e1n\u00ed odstra\u0161en\u00ed zp\u016fsobuje, \u017ee jadern\u00e1 v\u00e1lka se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt nevyhnuteln\u00e1. Kolektivn\u00ed neznalost vedouc\u00edch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f USA a Evropy v tomto ohledu p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 my\u0161len\u00ed Guye Montaga, \u201ehasi\u010de\u201c z rom\u00e1nu Raye Bradburyho Fahrenheit 451:<\/p>\n<div class=\"ramecek\">\n<p>\u201eBylo pot\u011b\u0161en\u00edm ho\u0159et. Bylo to zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed pot\u011b\u0161en\u00ed vid\u011bt v\u011bci se\u017eran\u00e9, vid\u011bt v\u011bci z\u010dernal\u00e9 a zm\u011bn\u011bn\u00e9. S mosaznou tryskou v p\u011bsti, s tou velkou krajtou, kter\u00e1 chrlila na sv\u011bt sv\u016fj jedovat\u00fd petrolej, mu v hlav\u011b bu\u0161ila krev a jeho ruce byly rukama n\u011bjak\u00e9ho \u00fa\u017easn\u00e9ho dirigenta, kter\u00fd hraje v\u0161echny symfonie plamen\u016f a ho\u0159en\u00ed, aby strhl k zemi trosky a uheln\u00e9 trosky d\u011bjin. Se symbolickou p\u0159ilbou s \u010d\u00edslem 451 na pevn\u00e9 hlav\u011b a s o\u010dima cel\u00fdma oran\u017eov\u00fdm plamenem p\u0159i pomy\u0161len\u00ed na to, co p\u0159ijde p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011b, cvakl zapalova\u010dem a d\u016fm vysko\u010dil do \u017ehnouc\u00edho ohn\u011b, kter\u00fd se\u017eehl ve\u010dern\u00ed oblohu rudou, \u017elutou a \u010dernou. Kr\u00e1\u010del v roji sv\u011btlu\u0161ek. Cht\u011bl p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm, jako v tom star\u00e9m vtipu, str\u010dit do pece marshmallow na klacku, zat\u00edmco na verand\u011b a tr\u00e1vn\u00edku domu um\u00edraly m\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed knihy s holub\u00edmi k\u0159\u00eddly. Zat\u00edmco knihy se vznesly v jisk\u0159iv\u00fdch v\u00edrech a odlet\u011bly na v\u011btru ztemn\u011bl\u00e9m sp\u00e1leni\u0161t\u011bm.\u201c<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"karta\" style=\"text-align: center;\">\n<figure><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/zvedavec.news\/images\/24\/fafrenheit-7232-7.webp\" alt=\"[Guy Montag...]\" width=\"580\" height=\"336\" \/><figcaption><em>Guy Montag, Fahrenheit 451<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>\u017divot v\u0161ak nen\u00ed rom\u00e1n. A kdy\u017e se modern\u00ed inkarnace Guye Montaga rozhodnou \u201ecvaknout zapalova\u010dem\u201c, cel\u00fd \u017eivot, jak ho zn\u00e1me, \u201eodlet\u00ed ve v\u011btru, kter\u00fd potemn\u011bl ho\u0159en\u00edm\u201c.<\/p>\n<div class=\"wp-block-image\">\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456%2Cc_limit%2Cf_webp%2Cq_auto%3Agood%2Cfl_progressive%3Asteep\/https%253A%252F%252Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%252Fpublic%252Fimages%252F68285e4b-493b-4a14-83e5-dc2fd1821d1a_2700x2700.png?w=800&amp;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"689\" height=\"689\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-8c57238 quelle dc-has-condition dc-condition-empty elementor-widget elementor-widget-heading\" data-id=\"8c57238\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"heading.default\">\n<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n<h3 class=\"elementor-heading-title elementor-size-default\"><span style=\"font-size: 10pt;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/scottritter.substack.com\/p\/fahrenheit-7232?utm_source=post-email-title&amp;publication_id=6892&amp;post_id=152341823&amp;utm_campaign=email-post-title&amp;isFreemail=true&amp;r=pf6gr&amp;triedRedirect=true&amp;utm_medium=email\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\">Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201eSlunce p\u00e1lilo ka\u017ed\u00fd den. Sp\u00e1lilo \u010cas. Sv\u011bt se \u0159\u00edtil v kruhu a ot\u00e1\u010del se kolem&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67345,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,8251,22,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67344"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67344"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67344\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":67370,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67344\/revisions\/67370"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67345"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67344"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67344"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67344"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}