{"id":67335,"date":"2024-12-03T00:31:56","date_gmt":"2024-12-02T23:31:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=67335"},"modified":"2024-12-02T16:52:40","modified_gmt":"2024-12-02T15:52:40","slug":"uriel-araujo-mohl-by-trump-napadnout-mexiko-riziko-eskalace-je-realne","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/12\/03\/uriel-araujo-mohl-by-trump-napadnout-mexiko-riziko-eskalace-je-realne\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Mohl by Trump napadnout Mexiko? Riziko eskalace je re\u00e1ln\u00e9"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Donald Trump opakovan\u011b ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee p\u0159ipravuje v\u00e1lku proti drogov\u00fdm kartel\u016fm, a James Bosworth, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed kolega z Wilson Center’s Latin America Program,\u00a0<\/span>tvrd\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee Trumpovy hrozby je t\u0159eba br\u00e1t v\u00e1\u017en\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b existuje \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed kontext p\u0159\u00edslib\u016f \u201ev\u00e1lky proti drog\u00e1m\u201c Donalda Trumpa: koneckonc\u016f p\u0159\u00edsahal, \u017ee zam\u011bstn\u00e1 arm\u00e1du pro masov\u00e9 deportace (ileg\u00e1ln\u00edch migrant\u016f), a aby tak u\u010dinil, pl\u00e1nuje vyhl\u00e1sit \u201en\u00e1rodn\u00ed stav nouze\u201c \u2013 tzv. pl\u00e1n nevylu\u010duje deportaci cel\u00fdch rodin. N\u011bkolik\u00a0<\/span>imigra\u010dn\u00edch \u201etvrd\u00fdch lini\u00ed\u201c<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Trump vyu\u017eil, aby slou\u017eili v jeho budouc\u00ed administrativ\u011b (slo\u017e\u00ed p\u0159\u00edsahu v lednu 2025). Takov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed by byla velk\u00fdm posunem pro americkou arm\u00e1du, kter\u00e1 se norm\u00e1ln\u011b nezab\u00fdv\u00e1 z\u00e1le\u017eitostmi dom\u00e1c\u00edho vym\u00e1h\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u00e1va. Bylo to v\u0161ak vyzkou\u0161eno ji\u017e d\u0159\u00edve: takzvan\u00e1 operace Wetback za tehdej\u0161\u00edho prezidenta Eisenhowera v roce 1954 deportovala kolem 1 milionu Mexi\u010dan\u016f a\u00a0<\/span>dokonce i n\u011bkter\u00e9 americk\u00e9 Ameri\u010dany mexick\u00e9ho p\u016fvodu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nemus\u00ed j\u00edt jen o velmi drsnou odpov\u011b\u010f na probl\u00e9my neleg\u00e1ln\u00ed migrace a hranic (jako je fentanylov\u00e1 krize). Trump ob\u010das dokonce sl\u00edbil, \u017ee k hranic\u00edm budou p\u0159esunuty tis\u00edce americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f ze z\u00e1mo\u0159\u00ed. P\u0159em\u00fd\u0161lejte o tom: mobilizace arm\u00e1dy na dom\u00e1c\u00ed p\u016fd\u011b a vyhl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed \u201en\u00e1rodn\u00ed nouze\u201c je skv\u011bl\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak zv\u00fd\u0161it vlastn\u00ed moc. A jak jsem ji\u017e\u00a0<\/span>psal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, Trumpova v\u00e1lka s \u010d\u00e1st\u00ed takzvan\u00e9ho \u201eDeep State\u201c je (do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry) cel\u00e1 o tom. Jde o \u201ezkrocen\u00ed\u201c zpravodajsk\u00fdch slu\u017eeb, roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed v\u00fdkonn\u00e9 moci (jak je uvedeno v Projektu 2025) a\u00a0<\/span>pos\u00edlen\u00ed prezidentsk\u00fdch pravomoc\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zp\u00e1tky k ot\u00e1zk\u00e1m hranic, v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2023 \u010dasopis Foreign Policy zve\u0159ejnil \u010dl\u00e1nek\u00a0<\/span>v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0z Cato Institute Justina Logana a Daniela Raisbecka o (\u00a0<\/span>st\u00e1le prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed<\/span><\/a>\u00a0) fentanylov\u00e9 krizi. Ameri\u010dt\u00ed Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 dlouhodob\u011b \u010del\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>opioidn\u00ed krizi<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a velk\u00fd pod\u00edl nab\u00eddky t\u00e9to drogy poch\u00e1z\u00ed z Mexika. Tato z\u00e1le\u017eitost podn\u011bcuje politick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed: americk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady nap\u0159\u00edklad hlasit\u011b obvi\u0148uj\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, \u017ee dod\u00e1vaj\u00ed mexick\u00fdm kartel\u016fm ingredience pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 k v\u00fdrob\u011b fentanylu. V kv\u011btnu 2023 Washington kv\u016fli t\u00e9to z\u00e1le\u017eitosti uvalil sankce na 17 jednotlivc\u016f a subjekt\u016f v \u010c\u00edn\u011b a Mexiku. Uprost\u0159ed americko-mexick\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed st\u00e1le tvrd\u0161\u00ed r\u00e9torika proti mexick\u00fdm kartel\u016fm zapojen\u00fdm do tohoto nez\u00e1konn\u00e9ho obchodu \u010dasto zahrnovala vol\u00e1n\u00ed po \u201evojensk\u00fdch \u0159e\u0161en\u00edch\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ji\u017e v kv\u011btnu 2024 Trump ozn\u00e1mil sv\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny vyslat do Mexika \u201ezab\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed t\u00fdmy\u201c, aby \u201eodvedly\u201c v\u016fdce kartelu. V tom v\u0161ak nen\u00ed osamocen\u00fd. V srpnu 2023 b\u011bhem prezidentsk\u00e9 debaty Republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9 strany (ne\u017e byl Donald Trump jmenov\u00e1n kandid\u00e1tem strany) guvern\u00e9r Floridy Ron DeSantis sl\u00edbil, \u017ee pokud bude zvolen prezidentem, po\u0161le americk\u00e9 speci\u00e1ln\u00ed jednotky do sousedn\u00edho Mexika, aby bojovaly proti drogov\u00fdm kartel\u016fm. Bryan Griffin, jeho mluv\u010d\u00ed, slib rozvedl takto: \u201eRon DeSantis prohl\u00e1s\u00ed kartely za narkoteroristy a zm\u011bn\u00ed pravidla anga\u017em\u00e1 na hranici.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pln\u00e1 s\u00edla feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dy bude vyu\u017eita k tomu, aby zajistila zastaven\u00ed neleg\u00e1ln\u00edho toku drog, a k tomuto \u00fa\u010delu vyu\u017eije v\u0161echny n\u00e1stroje, kter\u00e9 m\u00e1 k dispozici.\u201c DeSantis se nestal nominantem sv\u00e9 strany, ale jeho tehdej\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdroky ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee tento druh r\u00e9toriky (kter\u00fd nebere v \u00favahu mexickou suverenitu) jde za Trumpa a ve skute\u010dnosti Mexiko je (nen\u00ed zde \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed) velk\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st americk\u00e9 debaty o zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee \u010derstv\u011b p\u0159\u00edse\u017en\u00fd mexick\u00fd prezident Claudio Sheinbaum zaujal na dom\u00e1c\u00ed p\u016fd\u011b agresivn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstup k mexick\u00fdm kartel\u016fm a zam\u011bstn\u00e1val mexickou arm\u00e1du k boji proti nim. Doposud v\u0161ak odm\u00edtala americkou bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed pomoc a od sv\u00e9ho n\u00e1stupu do \u00fa\u0159adu v \u0159\u00edjnu dokonce omezila spolupr\u00e1ci a sd\u00edlen\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00fdch informac\u00ed. M\u00edrn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, bilater\u00e1ln\u00ed vztahy nejsou pr\u00e1v\u011b te\u010f dobr\u00e9 \u2013 op\u011bt zde nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159ekvapen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Takov\u00e1 typick\u00e1 americk\u00e1 agresivita m\u016f\u017ee sousedn\u00ed zemi jen d\u00e1le odcizit a odsunout ji nap\u0159\u00edklad sm\u011brem k Pekingu: \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 pragmatick\u00e1 diplomacie p\u0159ece jen dost dramaticky kontrastuje s americkou bojovnost\u00ed. Mexick\u00e9 civiln\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady nejsou jedin\u00fdmi akt\u00e9ry, kte\u0159\u00ed by mohli m\u00edt n\u00e1mitky proti jak\u00e9mukoli takov\u00e9mu americk\u00e9mu vp\u00e1du na jejich \u00fazem\u00ed: mluv\u00edme o siln\u011b militarizovan\u00e9m n\u00e1rodu, kter\u00fd zahrnuje sofistikovan\u00e9 a nesm\u00edrn\u011b bohat\u00e9 a t\u011b\u017ece ozbrojen\u00e9 polovojensk\u00e9 skupiny, jako jsou samotn\u00e9 drogov\u00e9 kartely.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00e1koli takov\u00e1 p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed militarizace (s potenci\u00e1lem pro ur\u010dit\u00fd stupe\u0148 ozbrojen\u00e9 konfrontace) by mohla m\u00edt eskaluj\u00edc\u00ed d\u016fsledky a nep\u0159edv\u00eddateln\u00e9 dopady, pokud jde o diplomatick\u00e9 a ekonomick\u00e9 dopady, n\u00e1sil\u00ed gang\u016f a dom\u00e1c\u00ed a p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed mezietnick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed: ob\u011b zem\u011b nejen sd\u00edlej\u00ed 2000 mil dlouhou hranici, ale jsou tak\u00e9 velmi integrovan\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e Mexi\u010dan\u00e9-Ameri\u010dan\u00e9\u00a0tvo\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/span>11,2 % americk\u00e9 populace<\/span><\/a>\u00a02022. V Texasu m\u00e1 31,6 % m\u00edstn\u00ed populace mexick\u00e9 p\u0159edky<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b vojensk\u00fdch a diplomatick\u00fdch hledisek (spolu s pl\u00e1ny masov\u00e9 deportace postihuj\u00edc\u00ed miliony lid\u00ed, kter\u00e1 by st\u00e1la miliardy dolar\u016f) existuje potenci\u00e1l pro ekonomickou katastrofu, proto\u017ee se ob\u011b zem\u011b dopl\u0148uj\u00ed i \u200b\u200bv t\u00e9to oblasti: za prv\u00e9, v roce 2021 bylo Mexiko druh\u00fdm nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm obchodn\u00edm partnerem USA s celkov\u00fdm objemem obchodu se zbo\u017e\u00edm a slu\u017ebami v hodnot\u011b 725,7 miliardy USD. V \u010dervenci 2023 ji\u017e Mexiko p\u0159edstihlo \u010c\u00ednu a stalo se hlavn\u00edm obchodn\u00edm partnerem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b toho Trumpovy pl\u00e1ny jist\u011b vyvolaj\u00ed pr\u00e1vn\u00ed bitvu doma, \u017ealoby guvern\u00e9r\u016f st\u00e1t\u016f a tak d\u00e1le. Otev\u00edr\u00e1 tak\u00e9 prostor pro ur\u010ditou \u00farove\u0148 ozbrojen\u00e9ho konfliktu s r\u016fzn\u00fdmi akt\u00e9ry se sousedn\u00ed zem\u00ed. V\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd James Bosworth varuje, \u017ee potenci\u00e1l pro \u201esc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 Blackhawk Down\u201c, ve kter\u00e9m ameri\u010dt\u00ed voj\u00e1ci \u201eskon\u010d\u00ed v n\u00e1siln\u00e9m st\u0159etu s krimin\u00e1ln\u00edmi silami nebo dokonce mexick\u00fdmi jednotkami br\u00e1n\u00edc\u00edmi suverenitu zem\u011b p\u0159ed americkou intervenc\u00ed \u2013 je re\u00e1ln\u00fd\u201c, pro \u201e jednoduch\u00e1 operace\u201c by mohla \u201erychle eskalovat v n\u011bco slo\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edho a smrt\u00edc\u00edho\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dod\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee Washington by m\u011bl tak\u00e9 zv\u00e1\u017eit \u201epotenci\u00e1ln\u00ed reakce kartel\u016f\u201c, proto\u017ee \u201en\u011bkter\u00e9 mexick\u00e9 zlo\u010dineck\u00e9 skupiny se mohou rozhodnout br\u00e1nit a dokonce eskalovat n\u00e1sil\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee se zam\u011b\u0159\u00ed na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy, podniky a ob\u010dany\u201c. Nav\u00edc podle Boswortha mohou zp\u016fsobit \u201evelk\u00e9 \u0161kody americk\u00fdm sil\u00e1m p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00edm v Mexiku a maj\u00ed schopnosti, zbran\u011b a person\u00e1l k tomu, aby p\u0159evedly boj na \u00fazem\u00ed USA zp\u016fsobem, o kter\u00e9m by al-K\u00e1ida a Isl\u00e1msk\u00fd st\u00e1t mohly jen sn\u00edt. z.“<\/span><\/p>\n

Stejn\u011b jako v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b tolika agresivn\u00edch americk\u00fdch politik a pl\u00e1n\u016f spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 riziko v nep\u0159edv\u00eddatelnosti sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f eskalace. Lze se jen pt\u00e1t, zda takov\u00e1 rizika budou st\u00e1t za to i z Trumpova pohledu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD<\/a>, antropologick\u00fd v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk se zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed a etnick\u00e9 konflikty<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Donald Trump opakovan\u011b ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee p\u0159ipravuje v\u00e1lku proti drogov\u00fdm kartel\u016fm, a James Bosworth, glob\u00e1ln\u00ed kolega…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67336,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[289,1503,396,452],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67335"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67335"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67335\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67336"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67335"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67335"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67335"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}