{"id":67109,"date":"2024-11-29T00:39:52","date_gmt":"2024-11-28T23:39:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=67109"},"modified":"2024-11-28T17:24:34","modified_gmt":"2024-11-28T16:24:34","slug":"petr-pokorny-ruske-urady-zacaly-bojovat-proti-kolapsu-rublu-ale-co-se-ve-skutecnosti-deje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/11\/29\/petr-pokorny-ruske-urady-zacaly-bojovat-proti-kolapsu-rublu-ale-co-se-ve-skutecnosti-deje\/","title":{"rendered":"Petr Pokorn\u00fd: Rusk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady za\u010daly bojovat proti kolapsu rublu, ale co se ve skute\u010dnosti d\u011bje?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Vynechme fantasmagorick\u00e9 v\u00fdk\u0159iky na\u0161\u00ed propagandy a slinty r\u00e1doby odborn\u00edk\u016f na u\u017e tis\u00edcer\u00e9 zhroucen\u00ed Ruska a p\u011btkr\u00e1t um\u0159el\u00e9ho Putina. Na druhou stranu za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 u\u017e j\u00edt do tuh\u00e9ho, a je to boj, kdo z koho. Padnou USA, nebo Rusko? A co \u010c\u00edna?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Ne, nyn\u00ed nebudete \u010d\u00edst poh\u00e1dky, kter\u00e9 si vycuc\u00e1me z prstu. Je to tot\u00e1ln\u00ed boj na \u017eivot a na smrt ve vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska a zda z toho klin\u010de vyjde pos\u00edleno, nebo se zhrout\u00ed. Nevojensky, prost\u011b klasick\u00fdm vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00edm, proto\u017ee i USA jde o \u017eivot. A \u017ee je to i v USA katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed a pen\u00edze nejsou na \u0161kolstv\u00ed, infrastrukturu, ani na zdravotnictv\u00ed, co\u017e v Rusku ano, je do o\u010d\u00ed bij\u00edc\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Na cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b nikdo nev\u00ed, jak\u00e9 protitahy m\u00e1 p\u0159ipraveno Rusko, o jak\u00e9 zv\u011brstvo se pokus\u00ed vl\u00e1da USA, a jak\u00e9 budou ofenzivn\u00ed proti\u00fatoky. Tak\u017ee nebudu zde narozd\u00edl od slint\u00e1n\u00ed komik\u016f ve vl\u00e1d\u011b \u0159\u00edkat n\u011bjak\u00e9 pojmy a dojmy. D\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 je popsat to, co se nyn\u00ed d\u011bje a o co se hraje.,<\/p>\n

Fakta:<\/strong>\u00a0Sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz dolaru podle ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho sm\u011bnn\u00e9ho kurzu rusk\u00e9 centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banky poprv\u00e9 od b\u0159ezna 2022 stoupl na 110 rubl\u016f. Od za\u010d\u00e1tku listopadu 2024 tak rubl v\u016f\u010di dolaru ztratil 8 %. A chv\u00edlemi osciloval kurs na 115 rublech za dolar. Je to hr\u016fza, nebo sign\u00e1ly od rusk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, \u017ee je to v kl\u00eddku a nic tragick\u00e9ho se ned\u011bje, m\u00e1 bl\u00ed\u017ee k pravd\u011b?<\/p>\n

\"Sn\u00edmek<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u00a0Rusk\u00fd rubl b\u011bhem n\u011bkolika dn\u00ed pro\u0161el v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi psychologick\u00fdmi miln\u00edky a dos\u00e1hl \u00farovn\u00ed 100 rubl\u016f za dolar a 110 rubl\u016f za euro, pot\u00e9 klesl na minim\u00e1ln\u00ed hodnoty aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho roku. K 28. listopadu byly ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed kurzy: americk\u00fd dolar – 108,01 rubl\u016f, euro – 113,09 rubl\u016f, \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd j\u00fcan – 14,8 rubl\u016f. B\u011bhem 27. listopadu v\u0161ak do\u0161lo k siln\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu poklesu rublu, kdy\u017e na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edm devizov\u00e9m trhu Forex p\u0159es\u00e1hl 114 rubl\u016f za dolar (proto\u017ee v Rusku neexistuje organizovan\u00e9 obchodov\u00e1n\u00ed s dolarem) a 15 rubl\u016f za juan na moskevsk\u00e9m V\u00fdm\u011bna.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Vra\u0165me se do minulosti<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

George Bush star\u0161\u00ed, jeden z nejslu\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00edch prezident\u016f USA, zkolaboval na n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u011b Japonska. (N\u011bkdy v roce 1992). Uv\u00e1d\u011bl se d\u016fvod vylmi slo\u017eit\u00e9ho a vy\u010derp\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edho jedn\u00e1n\u00ed o kurzu j\u00fcanu (Renbinbi) v\u016f\u010di dolaru, kdy \u010c\u00edna nastartovala d\u00edky obrovsk\u00e9 devalvaci mohutn\u00fd ekonomick\u00fd skok a kde je dnes, v\u0161ichni v\u00edme. A v roce 2005 Bush mlad\u0161\u00ed h\u0159\u00edmal v \u010c\u00edn\u011b: p\u0159i n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u011b prezidenta George Bushe v Pekingu tomu nebylo jinak.
\nWashington tla\u010d\u00ed na Peking, aby uvolnil svoji m\u011bnu j\u00fcan, kter\u00fd je dlouhodob\u011b podhodnocen\u00fd a\u017e o \u010dty\u0159icet procent a je podle americk\u00fdch expert\u016f jedn\u00edm z hlavn\u00edch d\u016fvod\u016f velk\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho obchodn\u00edho deficitu v\u016f\u010di \u010c\u00edn\u011b, kter\u00e1 tak velmi levn\u011b vyv\u00e1\u017e\u00ed do USA.
\n\u010c\u00edna pon\u011bkud uvolnila kurs j\u00fcanu, ale z pohledu USA jen m\u00e1lo – vzrostl pouze o 0,33 procenta v\u016f\u010di dolaru.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee kurz velmi n\u00edzk\u00fd pom\u00e1h\u00e1 v\u00fdvozu, zpomaluje dovozy.<\/p>\n

V \u010dem je rozd\u00edl nyn\u00ed?<\/p>\n

Na Rusko bylo z USA vytvo\u0159en\u00fdch 22000 sankc\u00ed – vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed,<\/strong>\u00a0proto\u017ee zoufal\u00e9 USA u\u017e maj\u00ed dluh\u00a036 127 817 920,67 dolar\u016f, neboli 36 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f. V p\u0159epo\u010dtu na ruble u\u017e se to snad ani vypsat ned\u00e1. Neboli 36 bilion\u016f x 110…<\/b><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Rusov\u00e9 maj\u00ed velmi mal\u00fd dluh a nyn\u00ed, d\u00edky v\u00e1lce, si deficit m\u00edrn\u011b zvedaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pro\u010d se Rusko p\u0159i tolika (22 000) sankc\u00edch a vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed o v\u00fdpaln\u00e9 nehrout\u00ed?<\/h2>\n

Proto\u017ee obchod v dolarech a eurech u\u017e je minim\u00e1ln\u00ed proti d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161ku. Za druh\u00e9 Putin sv\u00fdmi na\u0159\u00edzen\u00edmi dok\u00e1zal dostat Rusko pod z\u00e1kladn\u00ed potravinovou sob\u011bsta\u010dnost. Nav\u00edc Rusko m\u00e1 obrovsk\u00e9 nerostn\u00e9 bohatstv\u00ed a narozd\u00edl od Venezuely ho dok\u00e1\u017ee i zpracov\u00e1vat. Ten pokles byl zap\u0159\u00ed\u010din\u011bn t\u00edm, \u017ee USA za\u010daly Rusko vyd\u00edrat a p\u0159estaly d\u00e1vat d\u00edly, kter\u00e9 si Rusov\u00e9 dov\u00e1\u017eeli, tak\u017ee n\u00e1hrada nebyla ze dne na den, ale ve v\u0161ech segmentech trhu byl prudk\u00fd pokles, kter\u00fd se nyn\u00ed vzpamatov\u00e1v\u00e1. T\u0159eba automobilky klesly skoro na nulu, z\u00e1padn\u00ed firmy ode\u0161ly, ale nyn\u00ed jedna po druh\u00e9 rozj\u00ed\u017ed\u00ed v\u00fdrobu z vlastn\u00edch komponent\u016f a p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b ani zde kolaps nenastal, by\u0165 mnoh\u00e9 zacelila radostn\u011b \u010c\u00edna.<\/p>\n

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Na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed sm\u011bn\u00e1rn\u011b Forex dos\u00e1hla hodnota dolaru do 27. listopadu 110 rubl\u016f. Je to poprv\u00e9, co dolar p\u0159ekonal tuto \u00farove\u0148 od 16. b\u0159ezna 2022. Na moskevsk\u00e9 burze se n\u00e1klady na dolarov\u00e9 futures na prosincov\u00e9 dod\u00e1n\u00ed zv\u00fd\u0161ily o 0,47 % na 107 500 rubl\u016f. To odpov\u00edd\u00e1 sm\u011bnn\u00e9mu kurzu 107,5 rubl\u016f za dolar. Centr\u00e1ln\u00ed banka Ruska stanovila ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed sm\u011bnn\u00fd kurz dolaru 27. listopadu na 105,0604 rubl\u016f, euro na 110,4943 rubl\u016f a j\u00fcan na 14,4449 rubl\u016f.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

P\u0159esto je rusk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da v klidu. Jedin\u00e9, co \u0159e\u0161\u00ed guvern\u00e9rka Nabiullinov\u00e1, je inflace, proto\u017ee p\u0159i tot\u00e1ln\u00edm zablokov\u00e1n\u00ed plateb ze z\u00e1padu a pokusu USA tot\u00e1ln\u011b uzav\u0159\u00edt z Ruska plyn a ropu plus v\u00fdrobky by men\u0161\u00ed konkurenceschopnost na dom\u00e1c\u00edm trhu mohla Rusy trochu v\u00edc po\u0161kodit.<\/p>\n

A tak je sp\u00ed\u0161e \u0161okuj\u00edc\u00ed klid a vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed rusk\u00fdch vl\u00e1dn\u00edch ekonom\u016f, \u017ee Rusko by ani 50% inflace nezlomila, dokonce ani dolar za 150 rubl\u016f. Sp\u00ed\u0161e je to psychologick\u00fd moment, kdy m\u00e9n\u011b informovan\u00ed Rusov\u00e9 by jako u n\u00e1s mohli v\u011b\u0159it r\u016fzn\u00fdm podvodn\u00fdm v\u00fdklad\u016fm a mohla by vzniknout panika.<\/p>\n

Rusko u\u017e d\u00e1vno p\u0159e\u0161lo na n\u00e1rodn\u00ed m\u011bny, a na vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed ze strany USA a EU se dob\u0159e p\u0159ipravilo. Zda na v\u0161e, to nikdo na sv\u011bt\u011b nev\u00ed, nato\u017e my, tak\u017ee v\u00e1m nebudu v\u011b\u0161et bul\u00edky na nos jako ubo\u017e\u00e1k Petr Fiala, ale v\u00fd\u0161e je popis fakt\u016f, a o co se skute\u010dn\u011b hraje.<\/p>\n

A ten posledn\u00ed sank\u010dn\u00ed, americk\u00fd a bruselsk\u00fd pokus o \u00fader je sankce na v\u0161echny banky v\u010detn\u011b t\u00e9 nejhlavn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed:\u00a0Gazprombank<\/strong>, kter\u00e1 prov\u00e1d\u011bla vypo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed dod\u00e1vek plynu se st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 uvalily sankce proti Rusku.<\/p>\n

Shrnut\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

USA u\u017e jsou vy\u010derpan\u00e9 a dluh historicky nejhor\u0161\u00ed. Katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed. Rusko na tom nen\u00ed skv\u011ble, sp\u00ed\u0161e jede na hran\u011b, ale st\u00e1le m\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed rezervy, ne\u017e USA d\u00edky mal\u00e9mu zadlu\u017een\u00ed, a nyn\u00ed u\u017e mal\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti na z\u00e1padn\u00edch m\u011bn\u00e1ch. Na druhou stranu se USA pokou\u0161\u00ed o restart a n\u00e1vrhy zn\u00ed pro USA sp\u00ed\u0161e slibn\u011b. Ale to bude znamenat,\u00a0 \u017ee Evropskou unii \u010dek\u00e1 tot\u00e1ln\u00ed zhroucen\u00ed a propad do bezv\u00fdznamnosti, kterou nav\u00edc vys\u00e1v\u00e1 agres\u00edvn\u00ed \u017eravost vojensk\u00fdch \u0161\u00edlenc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed jedou na dluh a ruinuj\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu zem\u00ed. N\u011bmecko je na konci s dechem a pokud Trump skute\u010dn\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed cla, p\u016fjdeme se p\u00e1st. Nebol\u00ed v \u0159e\u017eb\u011b a vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed z USA to Rusko s \u010c\u00ednou p\u0159e\u017eije, USA asi tak\u00e9, ale Evropa b\u011bhem deseti let bude jako rozvojov\u00fd sv\u011btad\u00edl. A to je skute\u010dn\u00e1 hr\u016fza. Ale budeme m\u00edt \u010cernochov\u00e9 F 35.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee t\u0159ikr\u00e1t hur\u00e1, hur\u00e1, hur\u00e1…<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Petr Pokorn\u00fd<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vynechme fantasmagorick\u00e9 v\u00fdk\u0159iky na\u0161\u00ed propagandy a slinty r\u00e1doby odborn\u00edk\u016f na u\u017e tis\u00edcer\u00e9 zhroucen\u00ed Ruska a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":67110,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[45,1503,2113,22,125],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67109"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=67109"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/67109\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/67110"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=67109"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=67109"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=67109"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}