{"id":66772,"date":"2024-11-23T06:57:29","date_gmt":"2024-11-23T05:57:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=66772"},"modified":"2024-11-23T06:57:29","modified_gmt":"2024-11-23T05:57:29","slug":"arnaud-bertrand-cina-vydava-v-sa-dluhopisy-v-dolarech","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/11\/23\/arnaud-bertrand-cina-vydava-v-sa-dluhopisy-v-dolarech\/","title":{"rendered":"\ufeffArnaud Bertrand: \u010c\u00edna vyd\u00e1v\u00e1 v SA dluhopisy v dolarech"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

P\u0159\u00edb\u011bh o \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 emisi st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f denominovan\u00fdch v dolarech v Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 v \u010c\u00edn\u011b obrovsk\u00fd rozruch a m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt potenci\u00e1ln\u011b nesm\u00edrn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd.<\/strong><\/p>\n

M\u00e1m siln\u00e9 podez\u0159en\u00ed, \u017ee jde o vzkaz nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed Trumpov\u011b administrativ\u011b.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dovolte mi vysv\u011btlit, o co z\u0159ejm\u011b jde.<\/p>\n

Na prvn\u00ed pohled se nejedn\u00e1 o \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd v\u00fdznamn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh: USD v Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee investo\u0159i p\u016fj\u010dili \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1d\u011b USD, kter\u00e9 sl\u00edbili splatit. To jsou dluhopisy. Zat\u00edm relativn\u011b nudn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00edm pon\u011bkud zaj\u00edmav\u00fdm aspektem je, \u017ee dluhopisy byly p\u0159eups\u00e1ny t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 20x (co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee na dluhopisy v hodnot\u011b 2 miliard USD byla popt\u00e1vka p\u0159es 40 miliard USD), co\u017e je mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed popt\u00e1vka, ne\u017e je u USD st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f obvykl\u00e9. Obvykle se u aukc\u00ed americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f m\u00edra p\u0159eups\u00e1n\u00ed pohybuje mezi 2x a\u017e 3x, tak\u017ee se zd\u00e1, \u017ee o \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd dluh denominovan\u00fd v dolarech je na trhu zjevn\u011b velmi velk\u00fd z\u00e1jem.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00fdm zaj\u00edmav\u00fdm aspektem je, \u017ee \u00farokov\u00e1 sazba dluhopis\u016f byla pozoruhodn\u011b bl\u00edzk\u00e1 sazb\u00e1m americk\u00e9ho ministerstva financ\u00ed (jen o 1-3 bazick\u00e9 body vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, tj. 0,01-0,03 %), co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna si nyn\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee p\u016fj\u010dovat pen\u00edze \u2013 v americk\u00fdch dolarech (!) \u2013 prakticky za stejnou sazbu jako samotn\u00e1 vl\u00e1da USA. To nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpad \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 jin\u00e9 zem\u011b na sv\u011bt\u011b. Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed, zem\u011b s nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm \u00fav\u011brov\u00fdm ratingem (AAA) obvykle plat\u00ed alespo\u0148 10-20 bazick\u00fdch bod\u016f v\u00edce ne\u017e americk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy v t\u011bch vz\u00e1cn\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edpadech, kdy vyd\u00e1vaj\u00ed dluhopisy v USD.<\/p>\n

T\u0159et\u00edm zaj\u00edmav\u00fdm aspektem je samotn\u00e9 m\u00edsto prodeje t\u011bchto dluhopis\u016f: Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie. To je neobvykl\u00e9, proto\u017ee st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy se obvykle vyd\u00e1vaj\u00ed ve velk\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch centrech, nikoli v Rij\u00e1du. Volba Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bie a skute\u010dnost, \u017ee Sa\u00fadov\u00e9 s t\u00edmto souhlasili, je obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00fdznamn\u00e1 vzhledem k jej\u00ed historick\u00e9 roli v glob\u00e1ln\u00edm dolarov\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu, takzvan\u00e9m \u201epetrodolarov\u00e9m\u201c syst\u00e9mu, kter\u00fd nemus\u00edm vysv\u011btlovat… T\u00edm, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna vyd\u00e1v\u00e1 v Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii dolarov\u00e9 dluhopisy, kter\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edmo konkuruj\u00ed americk\u00fdm pokladni\u010dn\u00edm pouk\u00e1zk\u00e1m, a dost\u00e1v\u00e1 v podstat\u011b stejnou \u00farokovou sazbu, dokazuje, \u017ee m\u016f\u017ee fungovat jako alternativn\u00ed spr\u00e1vce dolarov\u00e9 likvidity p\u0159\u00edmo v srdci petrodolarov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu. Pro Sa\u00fadskou Ar\u00e1bii, kter\u00e1 dr\u017e\u00ed stovky miliard dolarov\u00fdch rezerv, to vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed novou mo\u017enost, jak investovat sv\u00e9 dolary: m\u016f\u017ee je investovat u \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy nam\u00edsto vl\u00e1dy USA.<\/p>\n

Dob\u0159e, to v\u0161echno je zaj\u00edmav\u00e9, ale st\u00e1le to nen\u00ed ten hlavn\u00ed d\u016fvod, pro\u010d jsou \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 soci\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u00e9dia rozru\u0161en\u00e1. D\u016fvodem je to, \u017ee postuluj\u00ed, \u017ee jde o zku\u0161ebn\u00ed kolo, kter\u00fdm chce \u010c\u00edna USA demonstrovat, \u017ee proti nim m\u016f\u017ee \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b pou\u017e\u00edt jejich vlastn\u00ed m\u011bnu, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt dramatick\u00e9 n\u00e1sledky.<\/p>\n

Jak?<\/p>\n

P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm se zamyslete, p\u0159edstavte si, \u017ee by \u010c\u00edna tento postup roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila a m\u00edsto dluhopis\u016f v hodnot\u011b 2 miliard dolar\u016f by za\u010dala vyd\u00e1vat dluhopisy v hodnot\u011b 10 nebo 100 miliard.<\/p>\n

Pro USA to znamen\u00e1, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna bude na glob\u00e1ln\u00edm trhu s dolarem fakticky konkurovat americk\u00e9mu ministerstvu financ\u00ed. M\u00edsto toho, aby zem\u011b jako Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie automaticky recyklovaly sv\u00e9 dolary do dluhopis\u016f americk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed pokladny, mohly by je vlo\u017eit do \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch dolarov\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f, kter\u00e9 by platily stejnou sazbu.<\/p>\n

Vznikl by tak paraleln\u00ed dolarov\u00fd syst\u00e9m, v n\u011bm\u017e by \u010d\u00e1st toku dolar\u016f kontrolovala \u010c\u00edna, nikoli USA. USA by st\u00e1le tiskly dolary, ale \u010c\u00edna by st\u00e1le v\u00edce \u0159\u00eddila, kam se dostanou. P\u0159edstavte si to…<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edm kritick\u00fdm aspektem je, \u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd dolar, kter\u00fd jde do \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f m\u00edsto do americk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, je o jeden dolar m\u00e9n\u011b, kter\u00fd pom\u00e1h\u00e1 financovat vl\u00e1dn\u00ed v\u00fddaje USA. V dob\u011b, kdy USA vykazuj\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 deficity a pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed neust\u00e1le prod\u00e1vat st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy, aby se mohly financovat, by vznik \u010c\u00edny jako konkuren\u010dn\u00edho emitenta dolarov\u00fdch dluhopis\u016f, kter\u00fd se m\u016f\u017ee vyrovnat sazb\u00e1m st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f, mohl pro americkou vl\u00e1du znamenat obrovsk\u00e9 probl\u00e9my s financov\u00e1n\u00edm. Mohlo by to fakticky ukon\u010dit takzvan\u00e9 \u201ep\u0159ehnan\u00e9 privilegium\u201c USA.<\/p>\n

Ale po\u010dkejte, mo\u017en\u00e1 se pt\u00e1te, jak\u00fd smysl m\u00e1, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 tolik dolar\u016f? Nep\u0159en\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed probl\u00e9m na sebe: i oni pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed naj\u00edt m\u00edsto, kam v\u0161echny ty dolary investovat, nebo ne?<\/p>\n

M\u011bli byste pravdu, to posledn\u00ed, co \u010c\u00edna pot\u0159ebuje, je v\u00edce americk\u00fdch dolar\u016f: v roce 2023 dos\u00e1hla p\u0159ebytku obchodn\u00ed bilance v americk\u00fdch dolarech ve v\u00fd\u0161i 823,2 miliardy dolar\u016f a pro rok 2024 se o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 940 miliard dolar\u016f. \u010c\u00edna je ji\u017e nyn\u00ed naprosto zaplavena dolary.<\/p>\n

Ale pr\u00e1v\u011b v tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 kr\u00e1sa iniciativy P\u00e1smo a stezka. Ze 193 zem\u00ed sv\u011bta je 152 z nich sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed BRI. A mnoh\u00e9 z t\u011bchto zem\u00ed maj\u00ed velmi spole\u010dnou vlastnost: dlu\u017e\u00ed v dolarech, a to vl\u00e1d\u011b USA nebo jin\u00fdm z\u00e1padn\u00edm v\u011b\u0159itel\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Zde by se \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 strategie mohla st\u00e1t skute\u010dn\u011b chytrou. \u010c\u00edna by mohla pou\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9 americk\u00e9 dolary, aby pomohla zem\u00edm P\u00e1su a stezky splatit jejich dolarov\u00e9 dluhy z\u00e1padn\u00edm v\u011b\u0159itel\u016fm. Ale zde je kl\u00ed\u010d: v\u00fdm\u011bnou za pomoc t\u011bmto zem\u00edm s vyrovn\u00e1n\u00edm jejich dolarov\u00fdch dluh\u016f by \u010c\u00edna mohla za\u0159\u00eddit, aby byly splaceny v j\u00fcanech nebo ve strategick\u00fdch zdroj\u00edch nebo prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm jin\u00fdch dvoustrann\u00fdch dohod.<\/p>\n

Pro \u010c\u00ednu by to znamenalo troj\u00ed v\u00fdhru: zbavila by se p\u0159ebyte\u010dn\u00fdch dolar\u016f, pomohla by sv\u00fdm partnersk\u00fdm zem\u00edm zbavit se z\u00e1vislosti na dolaru a prohloubila by hospod\u00e1\u0159skou integraci t\u011bchto zem\u00ed s \u010c\u00ednou nam\u00edsto USA.<\/p>\n

Pro zem\u011b BRI je to atraktivn\u00ed, proto\u017ee se mohou vymanit z pasti dluhu denominovan\u00e9ho v dolarech (a hrozby finan\u010dn\u00edch sankc\u00ed ze strany USA) a z\u00edskat pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed podm\u00ednky u \u010c\u00edny, co\u017e napom\u016f\u017ee jejich rozvoji.<\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti by se tak \u010c\u00edna postavila do st\u0159edu dolarov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu jako prost\u0159edn\u00edk, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e dolary se nakonec stejn\u011b dostanou zp\u011bt do USA \u2013 jen cestou, kter\u00e1 posiluje sp\u00ed\u0161e \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd ne\u017e americk\u00fd vliv a postupn\u011b podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 schopnost USA financovat samy sebe (se v\u0161emi d\u016fsledky, kter\u00e9 to m\u00e1 na inflaci atd.).<\/p>\n

V t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi si pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b \u0159\u00edk\u00e1te \u201eno tak, to p\u0159ece \u010c\u00edna nem\u016f\u017ee ud\u011blat, americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da m\u00e1 jist\u011b k dispozici n\u00e1stroje, jak t\u011bmto v\u011bcem zabr\u00e1nit\u201c. A odpov\u011b\u010f p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b zn\u00ed, \u017ee ve skute\u010dnosti existuje jen m\u00e1lo v\u011bc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by USA mohly ud\u011blat a kter\u00e9 by je v n\u011bjak\u00e9 podob\u011b nepodkop\u00e1valy.<\/p>\n

Nejz\u0159ejm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed reakc\u00ed by bylo pohrozit sankcemi proti zem\u00edm \u2013 jako je Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie \u2013 nebo instituc\u00edm, kter\u00e9 nakupuj\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 dolarov\u00e9 dluhopisy. To by v\u0161ak d\u00e1le uk\u00e1zalo, \u017ee dolarov\u00e1 aktiva ve skute\u010dnosti nejsou v bezpe\u010d\u00ed p\u0159ed politick\u00fdmi z\u00e1sahy USA, co\u017e by d\u00e1le podn\u00edtilo zem\u011b k diverzifikaci, a probl\u00e9m by se tak je\u0161t\u011b prohloubil. S\u00edla dolaru \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b pramen\u00ed ze s\u00ed\u0165ov\u00fdch efekt\u016f \u2013 v\u0161ichni ho pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed, proto\u017ee ho pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed v\u0161ichni ostatn\u00ed \u2013 ale jak jsme vid\u011bli v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b Ruska, sankce vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed koordina\u010dn\u00ed moment pro zem\u011b, kter\u00e9 se od n\u011bj spole\u010dn\u011b vzdaluj\u00ed, co\u017e tyto s\u00ed\u0165ov\u00e9 efekty oslabuje.<\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00ed mo\u017enost\u00ed by bylo, kdyby Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed syst\u00e9m zv\u00fd\u0161il \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby, aby zatraktivnil americk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed dluhopisy. To by v\u0161ak bylo sebezni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed: zv\u00fd\u0161ilo by to vlastn\u00ed v\u00fdp\u016fj\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1klady americk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy v dob\u011b, kdy se ji\u017e pot\u00fdk\u00e1 s obrovsk\u00fdmi deficity, co\u017e by mohlo vyvolat recesi. A \u010c\u00edna, kter\u00e1 dost\u00e1v\u00e1 podobn\u00e9 sazby jako USA, by se mohla jednodu\u0161e vyrovnat jak\u00e9mukoli zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed sazeb.<\/p>\n

USA by tak\u00e9 mohly zvolit \u201ejadernou variantu\u201c, tedy omezit schopnost \u010c\u00edny z\u00fa\u010dtov\u00e1vat dolarov\u00e9 transakce, ale t\u00edm by fakticky okam\u017eit\u011b do\u0161lo k rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho finan\u010dn\u00edho syst\u00e9mu a podkop\u00e1n\u00ed role dolaru jako glob\u00e1ln\u00ed rezervn\u00ed m\u011bny \u2013 co\u017e je p\u0159esn\u011b to, \u010demu se USA cht\u011bj\u00ed vyhnout. A vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edm obchodn\u00edm partnerem obrovsk\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161iny zem\u00ed sv\u011bta, nen\u00ed nic m\u00e9n\u011b jist\u00e9, \u017ee by USA v t\u00e9to h\u0159e zv\u00edt\u011bzily…<\/p>\n

Zkr\u00e1tka to vypad\u00e1 jako n\u011bjak\u00fd druh tchaj-\u0165i \u201e\u010dty\u0159i unce pohnou tis\u00edcem liber\u201c (\u56db\u5169\u64a5\u5343\u65a4), kdy \u010c\u00edna s pou\u017eit\u00edm minim\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00edly p\u0159esm\u011bruje s\u00edlu dolaru tak, aby to bylo v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 pro \u010c\u00ednu.<\/p>\n

Jak jsem v\u0161ak napsal na za\u010d\u00e1tku, v t\u00e9to f\u00e1zi se s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed jedn\u00e1 pouze o vzkaz \u010c\u00edny nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed Trumpov\u011b administrativ\u011b: \u201eMy to dok\u00e1\u017eeme, tak si mo\u017en\u00e1 dob\u0159e rozmyslete v\u0161echny ty o\u0161kliv\u00e9 v\u011bci, kter\u00e9 na n\u00e1s chyst\u00e1te…\u201c. Kr\u00e1sa tohoto tahu spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 v tom, jak je strategicky elegantn\u00ed: \u010c\u00ednu nestoj\u00ed t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nic, co by musela demonstrovat, ale nut\u00ed Washington uva\u017eovat o n\u011bkter\u00fdch velmi nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00fdch mo\u017enostech.<\/p>\n

\n

The story around China issuing USD-denominated sovereign bonds in Saudi Arabia<\/a> vy\u0161el na Twitteru. P\u0159eklad\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159\u00edb\u011bh o \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 emisi st\u00e1tn\u00edch dluhopis\u016f denominovan\u00fdch v dolarech v Sa\u00fadsk\u00e9 Ar\u00e1bii vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 v \u010c\u00edn\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":13596,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,4544,59,45],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66772"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66772"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66772\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/13596"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66772"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66772"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66772"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}