{"id":66597,"date":"2024-11-21T00:39:33","date_gmt":"2024-11-20T23:39:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=66597"},"modified":"2024-11-20T16:35:14","modified_gmt":"2024-11-20T15:35:14","slug":"andrew-korybko-moment-pravdy-jak-rusko-zareaguje-na-pouziti-zapadnich-raket-dlouheho-doletu-ze-strany-ukrajiny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/11\/21\/andrew-korybko-moment-pravdy-jak-rusko-zareaguje-na-pouziti-zapadnich-raket-dlouheho-doletu-ze-strany-ukrajiny\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Moment pravdy – Jak Rusko zareaguje na pou\u017eit\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch raket dlouh\u00e9ho doletu ze strany Ukrajiny?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejasn\u00e9, co Putin nakonec ud\u011bl\u00e1, ale kter\u00e1koli z t\u011bchto dvou voleb, kterou ud\u011bl\u00e1, bude od nyn\u011bj\u0161ka ur\u010dovat trajektorii tohoto konfliktu, bu\u010f dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace, nebo mo\u017en\u00fd kompromis.<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

V ned\u011bli se objevily zpr\u00e1vy, \u017ee USA\u00a0kone\u010dn\u011b schv\u00e1lily\u00a0<\/a>\u017e\u00e1dost Ukrajiny o pou\u017eit\u00ed raket dlouh\u00e9ho doletu ATACMS proti c\u00edl\u016fm uvnit\u0159 rusk\u00fdch hranic p\u0159ed rokem 2014, po \u010dem\u017e n\u00e1sledovaly dal\u0161\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy, kter\u00e9 tvrdily, \u017ee\u00a0Francie a Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>pot\u00e9 n\u00e1sledovaly. V dob\u011b psan\u00ed tohoto \u010dl\u00e1nku je\u0161t\u011b nebyly pou\u017eity, ale Zelenskij pozd\u011bji toho dne\u00a0zlov\u011bstn\u011b nazna\u010dil,\u00a0<\/a>\u017ee by se to mohlo st\u00e1t velmi brzy. D\u016fvod, pro\u010d je to okam\u017eik pravdy, je ten, \u017ee Putin\u00a0d\u0159\u00edve varoval\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee by to znamenalo p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 zapojen\u00ed NATO do konfliktu.<\/p>\n

Tato anal\u00fdza aktualizovan\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 doktr\u00edny\u00a0obsahuje\u00a0<\/a>hypertextov\u00e9 odkazy na osm souvisej\u00edc\u00edch anal\u00fdz o v\u0161em, od \u201e\u010derven\u00fdch \u010dar\u201c po \u201eopot\u0159ebovac\u00ed v\u00e1lku\u201c, kter\u00e9 by si \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i m\u011bli prohl\u00e9dnout v kontextu pozad\u00ed. Poukazuje tak\u00e9 na to, jak tato nov\u00e1 politika \u201epova\u017euje agresi proti Rusku ze strany jak\u00e9hokoli nejadern\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, ale zahrnuj\u00edc\u00ed nebo podporovanou kter\u00fdmkoli jadern\u00fdm st\u00e1tem, za jejich spole\u010dn\u00fd \u00fatok proti Rusk\u00e9 federaci\u201c podle Putinov\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch slov. S\u00e1zky proto nikdy nebyly tak vysok\u00e9.<\/p>\n

D\u016fvodem, pro\u010d USA teprve nyn\u00ed posv\u00edtily na zelenou \u017e\u00e1dost Ukrajiny, je to, \u017ee odch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed kolektiv chce vytvo\u0159it podm\u00ednky pro zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed toho, aby Trump konflikt bu\u010f udr\u017eoval, nebo eskaloval. Po jeho\u00a0historick\u00e9m volebn\u00edm v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>panovaly obavy\u00a0, \u017ee zcela od\u0159\u00edzne Ukrajinu od pomoci a p\u0159ed\u00e1 tak Rusku po\u017eadovan\u00e9 maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by pak vedlo k nejhor\u0161\u00ed strategick\u00e9 por\u00e1\u017ece USA. Bylo vysv\u011btleno\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>,\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>, nicm\u00e9n\u011b, \u017ee byl v\u017edy pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u201eeskalovat a\u017e deeskalovat\u201c.<\/p>\n

V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, jak vn\u00edm\u00e1n\u00ed t\u011bch, kte\u0159\u00ed jsou st\u00e1le u moci, formuje jejich politick\u00e9 formulace, co\u017e se v tomto p\u0159\u00edkladu projevilo t\u00edm, \u017ee Ukrajin\u011b bylo ud\u011bleno pou\u017eit\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00edch raket dlouh\u00e9ho doletu navzdory p\u0159edchoz\u00edmu varov\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska. Jde o to, aby se konflikt b\u011bhem n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch dvou m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f p\u0159ed znovuinaugurac\u00ed Trumpa vyost\u0159il tak, aby zd\u011bdil mnohem obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed situaci ne\u017e v sou\u010dasnosti. O\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee ho to donut\u00ed zaujmout ke konfliktu jest\u0159\u00e1b\u00ed postoj.<\/p>\n

Realisticky vzato, v\u0161e, co se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b mezi t\u00edm a te\u010f stane, je, \u017ee Rusko provede dal\u0161\u00ed raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky proti vojensk\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm na Ukrajin\u011b. Neo\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se nic mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9ho, \u200b\u200bjako je jeho spekulativn\u00ed pou\u017eit\u00ed taktick\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed nebo bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO, ob\u011bma mo\u017enostmi se zab\u00fdvaly \u010dl\u00e1nky, kter\u00e9 byly vyjmenov\u00e1ny v d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed anal\u00fdze aktualizovan\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 doktr\u00edny. Nanejv\u00fd\u0161 by mohla\u00a0zni\u010dit hlavn\u00ed most\u00a0<\/a>p\u0159es Dn\u011bpr nebo prov\u00e9st dekapita\u010dn\u00ed \u00fadery, ale ani ty jsou nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Putin se br\u00e1n\u00ed eskalaci, proto\u017ee se up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b ob\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee se v\u0161e vymkne kontrole do t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Precedens znovu a znovu dokazuje, \u017ee ud\u011bl\u00e1 v\u0161e, co je v jeho sil\u00e1ch, aby se vyhnul tomu nejhor\u0161\u00edmu sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, jak dok\u00e1zal t\u00edm, \u017ee odm\u00edtl v\u00fdrazn\u011b eskalovat pot\u00e9, co Ukrajina bombardovala Kreml, rusk\u00e9 syst\u00e9my v\u010dasn\u00e9ho varov\u00e1n\u00ed, strategick\u00e1 leti\u0161t\u011b, Krymsk\u00fd most, ropn\u00e9 rafinerie a dal\u0161\u00ed. obytn\u00e9 oblasti, mezi jej\u00ed mnoho dal\u0161\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f. Nen\u00ed tedy d\u016fvod o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee by po tomhle vysko\u010dil z charakteru a v\u00fdrazn\u011b eskaloval.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto se n\u011bkdy i ti nejtrp\u011bliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed lid\u00e9 utrhnou a v\u017edy je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee Putin m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt dost a rozhodne se ud\u011blat to, co mnoz\u00ed jeho p\u0159\u00edznivci od za\u010d\u00e1tku cht\u011bli. To by mohlo m\u00edt podobu replikace americk\u00e9 bombardovac\u00ed kampan\u011b \u201e\u0161ok a hr\u016fza\u201c, p\u0159estat se starat o civiln\u00ed ob\u011bti a p\u0159\u00edslove\u010dn\u011b hodit kuchy\u0148sk\u00fd d\u0159ez na Ukrajinu. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, Rusko by si mohlo vz\u00edt str\u00e1nku z izraelsk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edru\u010dky, jak bylo vysv\u011btleno\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>, co\u017e by mohlo zv\u00fd\u0161it \u0161ance na maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Pokud z\u016fstane kurz a nebude eskalovat pot\u00e9, co Ukrajina pou\u017eije z\u00e1padn\u00ed rakety dlouh\u00e9ho doletu proti c\u00edl\u016fm uvnit\u0159 rusk\u00fdch hranic z doby p\u0159ed rokem 2014, pak by to mohlo b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1no za dal\u0161\u00ed \u201egesto dobr\u00e9 v\u016fle\u201c, jeho\u017e c\u00edlem by bylo usnadnit Trump zprost\u0159edkovat m\u00edrovou dohodu. Kompromisem v\u0161ak je, \u017ee by ho n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed jest\u0159\u00e1bi kolem n\u011bj mohli p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit, aby si to vylo\u017eil jako slabost, \u010d\u00edm\u017e ho povzbud\u00ed k \u201eeskalaci k deeskalaci\u201c, co\u017e vede k v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdm n\u00e1klad\u016fm p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti pro Rusko.<\/p>\n

V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by bylo lep\u0161\u00ed, kdyby Rusko ve zp\u011btn\u00e9m pohledu eskalovalo t\u011bsn\u011b pod \u00farove\u0148 kub\u00e1nsk\u00e9 krize hrani\u010dn\u00edho chov\u00e1n\u00ed, co\u017e by sta\u010dilo na to, aby prosadilo co nejv\u00edce sv\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f a z\u00e1rove\u0148 neza\u0161lo tak daleko, aby vyvolalo \u201ep\u0159ehnanou reakci\u201c. \u201c ze Z\u00e1padu, co\u017e by mohlo v\u00e9st k okam\u017eit\u00e9mu zmrazen\u00ed konfliktu. Z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejasn\u00e9, co Putin nakonec ud\u011bl\u00e1, ale kter\u00e1koli z t\u011bchto dvou voleb, kterou ud\u011bl\u00e1, bude od nyn\u011bj\u0161ka ur\u010dovat trajektorii tohoto konfliktu, bu\u010f dal\u0161\u00ed eskalace, nebo mo\u017en\u00fd kompromis.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 nejasn\u00e9, co Putin nakonec ud\u011bl\u00e1, ale kter\u00e1koli z t\u011bchto dvou voleb, kterou ud\u011bl\u00e1, bude…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":724,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,349,2524,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66597"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66597"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66597\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/724"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66597"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66597"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66597"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}