{"id":66233,"date":"2024-11-15T00:47:42","date_gmt":"2024-11-14T23:47:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=66233"},"modified":"2024-11-14T17:03:21","modified_gmt":"2024-11-14T16:03:21","slug":"andrew-korybko-je-nepravdepodobne-ze-by-usa-nutily-zelenskeho-k-poradani-voleb-bez-primeri","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/11\/15\/andrew-korybko-je-nepravdepodobne-ze-by-usa-nutily-zelenskeho-k-poradani-voleb-bez-primeri\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by USA nutily Zelensk\u00e9ho k po\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed voleb bez p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<p><strong>Je nere\u00e1ln\u00e9, \u017ee by USA za t\u00edmto \u00fa\u010delem zadr\u017eely vojenskou pomoc, dokud neprob\u00edhaj\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 akce, a vytvo\u0159ily tak pro Rusko p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost k dosa\u017een\u00ed sv\u00fdch maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/substackcdn.com\/image\/fetch\/w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep\/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fd1148237-42c7-455f-bdaf-2559fc041e5d_800x600.jpeg\" width=\"668\" height=\"501\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Rusk\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e1 slu\u017eba (SVR) v pond\u011bl\u00ed zve\u0159ejnila\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/svr.gov.ru\/smi\/2024\/11\/ssha-gotovyatsya-k-provedeniyu-vyborov-na-ukraine.htm\">prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed,\u00a0<\/a>v n\u011bm\u017e tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u201eWashington zva\u017euje uspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed prezidentsk\u00fdch a parlamentn\u00edch voleb v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce v kontextu pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edho nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed s Ruskem\u201c. \u00da\u010delem je p\u016fsobit \u201ejako jeden z \u201alegitimn\u00edch\u2018 zp\u016fsob\u016f, jak odstranit \u201ap\u0159\u00edli\u0161 troufal\u00e9ho\u2018 V. Zelensk\u00e9ho\u201c, \u201epokud to bude nutn\u00e9\u201c. Za t\u00edmto \u00fa\u010delem u\u017e USA \u00fadajn\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed sv\u00e9 agenty vlivu na Ukrajin\u011b, aby \u201evytvo\u0159ili[e] novou stranu navr\u017eenou tak, aby obsadila proamerick\u00e9 m\u00edsto\u201c.<\/p>\n<p>Tato anal\u00fdza ze srpna\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/assessing-the-veracity-of-svrs-latest\">\u201e\u00a0<\/a>Posouzen\u00ed pravdivosti posledn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy SVR o bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00edch se politick\u00fdch zm\u011bn\u00e1ch v Kyjev\u011b\u201c odkazuje na t\u0159i souvisej\u00edc\u00ed anal\u00fdzy z prosince 2023, ledna 2024 a kv\u011btna 2024 ve snaze vysv\u011btlit, pro\u010d se p\u0159edchoz\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011bdi politick\u00fdch zm\u011bn tam dosud nevyskytly. st\u00e1t se. Pokud jde o nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f, kter\u00e1 je d\u016fle\u017eit\u011b zpochybn\u011bna v\u00e1gn\u00edm tvrzen\u00edm, \u017ee to bude provedeno pouze \u201epokud to bude nutn\u00e9\u201c, existuj\u00ed d\u016fvody o\u010dek\u00e1vat, \u017ee bude obt\u00ed\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ji splnit, ne\u017e nazna\u010duje prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed SVR.<\/p>\n<p>Jedin\u00fdm realistick\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jak mohou USA p\u0159inutit Zelensk\u00e9ho, aby\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/thealtworld.com\/andrew_korybko\/five-reasons-why-trump-should-revive-the-draft-russian-ukrainian-peace-treaty\">nejprve uspo\u0159\u00e1dal volby bez p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>, s ohledem na to, \u017ee \u0159ekl, \u017ee je \u00fadajn\u011b nem\u016f\u017ee uspo\u0159\u00e1dat, dokud konflikt neskon\u010d\u00ed kv\u016fli v\u00fdkladu dekretu o stann\u00e9m pr\u00e1vu jeho vl\u00e1dou, je odep\u0159en\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 pomoci. . Pokud t\u00edm Trump projde, pak riskuje, \u017ee usnadn\u00ed rusk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd pr\u016flom, kter\u00fd by mohl zv\u00fd\u0161it \u0161ance, \u017ee Rusko\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/the-clock-is-ticking-for-russia-to\">dos\u00e1hne sv\u00fdch maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f\u00a0<\/a>v konfliktu, \u010demu\u017e se USA p\u0159irozen\u011b cht\u011bj\u00ed vyhnout.<\/p>\n<p>Navzdory tomu, \u017ee Trump sl\u00edbil, \u017ee ukon\u010d\u00ed proxy v\u00e1lku NATO-Rusko na Ukrajin\u011b, za jej\u00ed\u017e vyprovokov\u00e1n\u00ed byl zodpov\u011bdn\u00fd Biden, je v srdci st\u00e1le obchodn\u00edk, a proto mu pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nen\u00ed p\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9, \u017ee jeho zem\u011b nedost\u00e1v\u00e1 \u017e\u00e1dnou n\u00e1vratnost investic v hodnot\u011b stovek miliard dolar\u016f. . Z toho d\u016fvodu je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee vytvo\u0159\u00ed podm\u00ednky, aby Rusko dos\u00e1hlo sv\u00fdch maxim\u00e1ln\u00edch c\u00edl\u016f v konfliktu t\u00edm, \u017ee zadr\u017e\u00ed vojenskou pomoc Zelensk\u00e9mu, dokud tento neuspo\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1 nov\u00e9 volby jako prost\u0159edek k jeho nahrazen\u00ed.<\/p>\n<p>Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je, \u017ee Trump nut\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho, aby souhlasil s p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00edm, a pot\u00e9 po\u017eaduje, aby kr\u00e1tce pot\u00e9 uspo\u0159\u00e1dal volby, mo\u017en\u00e1 pod z\u00e1minkou zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed demokratick\u00e9ho mand\u00e1tu pro pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f, po nich\u017e by mohl b\u00fdt on a jeho strana nahrazeni . K tomuto \u201ef\u00e1zov\u00e9mu p\u0159echodu veden\u00ed\u201c by do\u0161lo pouze \u201epokud to bude nutn\u00e9\u201c, proto\u017ee Trump by tak\u00e9 mohl nechat Zelensk\u00e9ho pokra\u010dovat v odkl\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed voleb a vyu\u017e\u00edt SBU ke konsolidaci sv\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy jedn\u00e9 strany, pokud spln\u00ed sv\u00e9 nab\u00eddky.<\/p>\n<p>Je p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 p\u0159edpov\u00eddat, zda by Trump po\u017eadoval, aby se volby konaly po p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed, ale lze s vysokou m\u00edrou sebev\u011bdom\u00ed hodnotit, \u017ee by nepo\u017eadoval, aby se konaly d\u0159\u00edve, proto\u017ee by to mohlo Rusku usnadnit strategickou por\u00e1\u017eku. na USA. Kdykoli kone\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ijdou volby, je jist\u00e9, \u017ee USA ud\u011blaj\u00ed v\u0161e, co je v jejich sil\u00e1ch, aby si udr\u017eely sv\u016fj vliv na Kyjev, i kdy\u017e to vy\u017eaduje \u201edemokratick\u00e9\u201c nahrazen\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho a jeho strany popul\u00e1rn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi z\u00e1stupci.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/korybko.substack.com\/p\/the-us-is-unlikely-to-coerce-zelensky\">Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone  wp-image-22017\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andrew-korybko-300x300.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"201\" height=\"201\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andrew-korybko-300x300.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andrew-korybko-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/andrew-korybko.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 201px) 100vw, 201px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Je nere\u00e1ln\u00e9, \u017ee by USA za t\u00edmto \u00fa\u010delem zadr\u017eely vojenskou pomoc, dokud neprob\u00edhaj\u00ed nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 akce,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":48931,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,26,37,27,1000],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66233"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=66233"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/66233\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48931"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=66233"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=66233"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=66233"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}