{"id":65768,"date":"2024-11-08T00:43:02","date_gmt":"2024-11-07T23:43:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=65768"},"modified":"2024-11-07T12:00:23","modified_gmt":"2024-11-07T11:00:23","slug":"nemecko-by-se-mohlo-dostat-do-politicke-patove-situace-a-nestability-prave-ve-chvili-kdy-trump-si-vezme-zpet-bily-dum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/11\/08\/nemecko-by-se-mohlo-dostat-do-politicke-patove-situace-a-nestability-prave-ve-chvili-kdy-trump-si-vezme-zpet-bily-dum\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u011bmecko by se mohlo dostat do politick\u00e9 patov\u00e9 situace a nestability pr\u00e1v\u011b ve chv\u00edli, kdy Trump si vezme zp\u011bt B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"fb-root\"><\/div>\n<h3 class=\"s-tagline fw-tagline\"><span style=\"font-size: 12pt;\">Pr\u016fzkumy ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee CDU\/CSU by se v nov\u00fdch feder\u00e1ln\u00edch volb\u00e1ch uk\u00e1zala jako nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00e1 strana, ale pokud jde o koali\u010dn\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, m\u011bla by omezen\u00e9 mo\u017enosti. Mohla by se je\u0161t\u011b jednou sp\u0159\u00e1telit s SPD nebo kone\u010dn\u011b p\u0159iv\u00edtat AfD p\u0159ed mrazem?<\/span><\/h3>\n<p><span>Kancl\u00e9\u0159 Olaf Scholz (SPD) odvolal sv\u00e9ho v\u016fdce koali\u010dn\u00ed strany FDP Christiana Lindnera z funkce ministra financ\u00ed, ne\u017e uspo\u0159\u00e1dal tiskovou konferenci spolkov\u00e9ho kancl\u00e9\u0159e, b\u011bhem n\u00ed\u017e zd\u016fraznil pot\u0159ebu \u201evl\u00e1dy schopn\u00e9 jednat\u201c, aby zvl\u00e1dla nal\u00e9hav\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00ed probl\u00e9my zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Posledn\u00ed pr\u016fzkum ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed Forsa, kter\u00fd prob\u011bhl tento t\u00fdden, p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed zaj\u00edmav\u00e9 \u010dten\u00ed, pokud by byly vyps\u00e1ny p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9 volby.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Ukazuje, \u017ee nejv\u00edce hlas\u016f z\u00edskal opozi\u010dn\u00ed st\u0159edopravicov\u00fd blok CDU\/CSU s 33 procenty, n\u00e1sledovan\u00fd \u00fa\u0159aduj\u00edc\u00ed Socialisticko-demokratickou stranou (SPD) a pravicov\u011b nacionalistickou Alternativou pro N\u011bmecko (AfD) na druh\u00e9m m\u00edst\u011b s 16 procenty.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-128948 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/rmx.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/GbuYtazWMA4Gpko-1024x584.jpg\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/rmx.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/GbuYtazWMA4Gpko-1024x584.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/rmx.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/GbuYtazWMA4Gpko-500x285.jpg 500w, https:\/\/rmx.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/GbuYtazWMA4Gpko-768x438.jpg 768w, https:\/\/rmx.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/GbuYtazWMA4Gpko-860x490.jpg 860w, https:\/\/rmx.news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/11\/GbuYtazWMA4Gpko.jpg 1200w\" alt=\"\" width=\"831\" height=\"474\" \/><\/figure>\n<p><span>SPD by se propadla o deset procentn\u00edch bod\u016f z 26 procent, kter\u00fdch dos\u00e1hla v roce 2021, zat\u00edmco jej\u00ed koali\u010dn\u00ed partne\u0159i, Svobodn\u00e1 demokratick\u00e1 strana (FDP) a Zelen\u00ed by tak\u00e9 oba utrp\u011bli zna\u010dn\u00e9 ztr\u00e1ty \u2013 FDP by klesla z 11 procent na 3 procenta. Zelen\u00ed by srazili na 10 procent ze 16 procent.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Podobn\u011b by levice klesla z 5 procent na 3 procenta. \u010c\u00e1st t\u00e9to podpory bude od\u010derp\u00e1na ve prosp\u011bch Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), jej\u00ed\u017e jmenovec se za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto roku odd\u011blil od levice a vytvo\u0159il novou stranu, kter\u00e1 v sou\u010dasnosti vol\u00ed 6 procent.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Podle dal\u0161\u00edho pr\u016fzkumu Insa pro den\u00edk Bild je AfD o 18 procent vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, CDU\/CSU o 32 procent n\u00ed\u017ee a FDP balancuje na hran\u011b prahu na 4,5 procenta.<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"twitter-tweet twitter-tweet-rendered\"><iframe id=\"twitter-widget-0\" class=\"\" title=\"X Post\" src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/embed\/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=RMXnews&amp;dnt=true&amp;embedId=twitter-widget-0&amp;features=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%3D%3D&amp;frame=false&amp;hideCard=false&amp;hideThread=false&amp;id=1853827258953191739&amp;lang=cs&amp;origin=https%3A%2F%2Frmx.news%2Farticle%2Fgermany-could-be-headed-for-political-stalemate-and-instability-just-as-trump-takes-back-the-white-house%2F&amp;sessionId=eb153f129862d27cdfd8962d8a6940d344472d61&amp;theme=light&amp;widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&amp;width=550px\" frameborder=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-tweet-id=\"1853827258953191739\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<h2 id=\"so-what-could-this-mean-for-a-new-government\" class=\"rb-heading-index-0-128947 wp-block-heading\"><span>Co by to tedy mohlo znamenat pro novou vl\u00e1du?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span>Prvn\u00ed v\u011bc, kterou je t\u0159eba poznamenat, je, \u017ee n\u011bmeck\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy jsou t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 v\u017edy koalice kv\u016fli volebn\u00edmu syst\u00e9mu zem\u011b. Naposledy politick\u00e1 strana z\u00edskala naprostou v\u011bt\u0161inu v roce 1957, kdy CDU\/CSU z\u00edskala 50,2 procenta hlas\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Druhou v\u00fdhradou k jak\u00e9koli hypotetick\u00e9 situaci t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se parlamentn\u00ed aritmetiky je skute\u010dnost, \u017ee strany v n\u011bmeck\u00fdch feder\u00e1ln\u00edch volb\u00e1ch obvykle pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed p\u0159ekonat 5procentn\u00ed hranici hlas\u016f, aby sed\u011bly ve Spolkov\u00e9m sn\u011bmu \u2013 co\u017e je v\u00fdkon, kter\u00e9ho levice ani vl\u00e1dn\u00ed FDP nedos\u00e1hnou. v aktu\u00e1ln\u00edm hlasov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Jednou z d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch v\u00fdjimek je, pokud strana z\u00edsk\u00e1 t\u0159i nebo v\u00edce p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdch k\u0159esel v prvn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti voleb. V roce 2021 se levice dostala do parlamentu, kdy\u017e z\u00edskala t\u0159i p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 hlasy, i kdy\u017e klesla pod p\u011btiprocentn\u00ed hranici. FDP v\u0161ak nez\u00edskala ani jeden p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd mand\u00e1t, ale kvalifikovala se do parlamentu se ziskem 11,5 procenta hlas\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee popularita FDP prudce kles\u00e1, budeme pro toto cvi\u010den\u00ed p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee se strana nedostane do parlamentu, a proto se nem\u016f\u017ee zapojit do koali\u010dn\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. Budeme p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee d\u00edky soust\u0159ed\u011bn\u00e9 podpo\u0159e levice by mohla vstoupit do Bundestagu na z\u00e1klad\u011b toho, co se naz\u00fdv\u00e1 \u201ez\u00e1kladn\u00ed mand\u00e1tn\u00ed dolo\u017eka\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>V t\u00e9to hypotetick\u00e9 situaci by se mohlo objevit n\u011bkolik koali\u010dn\u00edch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"cducsu-spd\" class=\"rb-heading-index-1-128947 wp-block-heading\"><span>CDU\/CSU + SPD<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span>P\u0159esto\u017ee pr\u016fzkumy ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee koalice CDU\/CSU-SPD nedos\u00e1hne magick\u00fdch 51 procent, p\u0159erozd\u011blen\u00ed mand\u00e1t\u016f po odebr\u00e1n\u00ed hlas\u016f pro men\u0161\u00ed strany, kter\u00e9 nedos\u00e1hnou prahu, by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zajistilo, \u017ee v tomto pr\u016fzkumu z\u00edskaj\u00ed parlamentn\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>To, co je zn\u00e1m\u00e9 jako \u201evelk\u00e1 koalice\u201c mezi historicky dv\u011bma nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi n\u011bmeck\u00fdmi stranami, by tak mohlo b\u00fdt potenci\u00e1ln\u011b znovu vytvo\u0159eno, co\u017e je sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd se v pov\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u00e9\u0159e stal mnohokr\u00e1t.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>To by mohlo b\u00fdt politicky problematick\u00e9 pro CDU\/CSU, kter\u00e9 posledn\u00ed \u010dty\u0159i roky ml\u00e1tily vl\u00e1dn\u00ed stranu, ale potenci\u00e1ln\u011b by to mohlo zd\u016fvodnit sv\u00fdm voli\u010d\u016fm t\u00edm, \u017ee by byla dominantn\u00edm koali\u010dn\u00edm partnerem. Takov\u00fd krok by byl riskantn\u00ed a mohl by potenci\u00e1ln\u011b vy\u00fastit v deziluzi t\u011bch, kdo jsou otr\u00e1ven\u00ed stejn\u00fdmi star\u00fdmi establishmentov\u00fdmi stranami, a vytla\u010dit p\u0159\u00edznivce na okraj.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"cducsu-spd-greens\" class=\"rb-heading-index-2-128947 wp-block-heading\"><span>CDU\/CSU + SPD + Zelen\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span>CDU\/CSU by mohla p\u0159izvat Zelen\u00e9, aby se pokusili spolupracovat na postupn\u00e9m vy\u0159azen\u00ed Alternativy pro N\u011bmecko (AfD), pravicov\u00e9 protiimigra\u010dn\u00ed strany, kterou n\u011bmeck\u00e9 mainstreamov\u00e9 strany pova\u017eovaly za p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 nechutnou pro spolupr\u00e1ci na st\u00e1tn\u00ed \u00farovni. .<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>To v\u0161ak p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed n\u011bkolik probl\u00e9m\u016f. Za prv\u00e9, jak Zelen\u00ed, tak SPD by pr\u00e1v\u011b ztratili zna\u010dnou podporu a optiku CDU\/CSU v\u00e9st kampa\u0148 za zm\u011bnu a vyhr\u00e1t volby, jen p\u0159iv\u00e9st dv\u011b ze t\u0159\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00fdch koali\u010dn\u00edch stran zp\u011bt k moci by bylo extr\u00e9mn\u011b \u0161kodliv\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Za druh\u00e9, takto \u0161irok\u00e1 koalice by nevyhnuteln\u011b \u010delila vnit\u0159n\u00edm ideologick\u00fdm rozd\u00edl\u016fm, zejm\u00e9na v soci\u00e1ln\u00ed, ekonomick\u00e9 a environment\u00e1ln\u00ed politice. SPD i Zelen\u00ed by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b po\u017eadovali od CDU\/CSU v\u00fdrazn\u00e9 \u00fastupky na podporu jejich politiky, co\u017e by nevyhnuteln\u011b vedlo k oslaben\u00ed p\u0159edvolebn\u00edch slib\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>CDU\/CSU by pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b tvrd\u011b vedla kampa\u0148 proti imigraci, aby porazila konkurenci st\u00e1le popul\u00e1rn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed Alternativy pro N\u011bmecko, a jak\u00fdkoli tvrd\u00fd postoj by nepodepsala ani jedna potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed koali\u010dn\u00ed strana.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"the-elephant-in-the-room-the-afd\" class=\"rb-heading-index-3-128947 wp-block-heading\"><span>Slon v m\u00edstnosti: AfD<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span>Dal\u0161\u00edm zp\u016fsobem, jak si pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b zajistit funguj\u00edc\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161inu, by bylo, kdyby CDU\/CSU p\u0159iv\u00edtala v AfD p\u0159ed mrazem. Pokud by se vl\u00e1da \u201evelk\u00e9 koalice\u201c neuskute\u010dnila, AfD by se pova\u017eovala za pozici pole position, aby poprv\u00e9 vstoupila do feder\u00e1ln\u00ed vl\u00e1dy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>To je v\u0161ak politika a teoreticky nejsch\u016fdn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed v praxi m\u00e1lokdy usp\u011bje. CDU\/CSU soustavn\u011b vylu\u010dovala spolupr\u00e1ci s AfD na st\u00e1tn\u00ed \u00farovni a zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee establishmentov\u00e9 strany maj\u00ed v \u00famyslu udr\u017eet kolem populistick\u00e9 skupiny \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fd cordon sanitaire ze strachu, \u017ee by j\u00ed dodaly d\u016fv\u011bryhodnost.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Spole\u010dn\u011b by CDU\/CSU a AfD z\u00edskaly v aktu\u00e1ln\u00edch pr\u016fzkumech zhruba polovinu hlas\u016f, co\u017e by po p\u0159erozd\u011blen\u00ed k\u0159esel pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b sta\u010dilo na potenci\u00e1ln\u011b \u017eivotaschopnou vl\u00e1du. Potenci\u00e1ln\u011b by se mohla pokusit o spolupr\u00e1ci s dal\u0161\u00edmi stranami p\u0159\u00edpad od p\u0159\u00edpadu, ale mo\u017en\u00fdm dopl\u0148kem by mohla b\u00fdt BSW, kter\u00e1 se alespo\u0148 shoduje s dvojic\u00ed v soci\u00e1ln\u011b konzervativn\u00edch ot\u00e1zk\u00e1ch, ale v\u00fdrazn\u011b se li\u0161\u00ed, pokud jde o ekonomiku.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>Zat\u00edmco koalice mezi CDU\/CSU, AfD a BSW by technicky zajistila pohodlnou v\u011bt\u0161inu, vzhledem k politick\u00e9 izolaci AfD a zna\u010dn\u00e9mu vnit\u0159n\u00edmu i vn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmu tlaku ze strany CDU\/CSU a BSW je velmi nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, aby jakoukoli spolupr\u00e1ci s AfD odm\u00edtla.<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 id=\"political-stalemate\" class=\"rb-heading-index-4-128947 wp-block-heading\"><span>Politick\u00fd pat<\/span><\/h2>\n<p><span>Pokud by tento pr\u016fzkum zas\u00e1hl do p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch feder\u00e1ln\u00edch voleb, nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159em by byla politick\u00e1 patov\u00e1 situace a nov\u00e9 volby, kter\u00e9 by N\u011bmecko d\u00e1le paralyzovaly v dob\u011b ekonomick\u00e9 nestability a vratk\u00e9ho geopolitick\u00e9ho klimatu s v\u00e1lkou na Ukrajin\u011b a na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span>P\u0159idejte k tomu, \u017ee Donald Trump by pr\u00e1v\u011b znovu vstoupil do B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu, Evropsk\u00e1 unie by si nemohla dovolit, aby byla jej\u00ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ekonomika tak rozt\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u011bn\u00e1 v dob\u011b, kdy by Brusel cht\u011bl uk\u00e1zat svou s\u00edlu a postavit se tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 nov\u00e1 republik\u00e1nsk\u00e1 administrativa.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-1185\" src=\"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/04\/kuryr-podpis.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"84\" height=\"24\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Pr\u016fzkumy ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee CDU\/CSU by se v nov\u00fdch feder\u00e1ln\u00edch volb\u00e1ch uk\u00e1zala jako nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00e1 strana,&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5594,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,84,122,8176],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65768"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65768"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65768\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65768"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65768"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65768"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}