{"id":65397,"date":"2024-11-02T00:37:03","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T23:37:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=65397"},"modified":"2024-11-01T18:04:57","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T17:04:57","slug":"jiri-paroubek-ma-cesko-na-vetsi-hospodarsky-rust","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/11\/02\/jiri-paroubek-ma-cesko-na-vetsi-hospodarsky-rust\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: M\u00e1 \u010cesko na v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fd r\u016fst?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Na\u0161i ekonomi\u010dt\u00ed Einsteini z vl\u00e1dy Petra Fialy a skupina provl\u00e1dn\u00edch ekonom\u016f, je rozpa\u010dit\u00e1 nad nizou\u010dk\u00fdm r\u016fstem \u010desk\u00e9 ekonomiky ve 3. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed a tedy vlastn\u011b za cel\u00fd rok 2024. S povinn\u00fdm optimismem provl\u00e1dn\u00ed ekonomi\u010dt\u00ed beletrist\u00e9 fantaz\u00edruj\u00ed o meziro\u010dn\u00edm r\u016fstu ekonomiky v tomto roce a\u017e o1%. A v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce pr\u00fd to bude je\u0161t\u011b o procento v\u00edc a mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edc.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pokud se pod\u00edv\u00e1te do rok star\u00fdch \u010desk\u00fdch novin, zjist\u00edte, d\u00e9j\u00e1-vu. Tedy, op\u011bt povinn\u00fd optimismus s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee rok 2024 u\u017e bude v\u00a0ekonomice zlomov\u00fd. Meziro\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst \u010desk\u00e9ho HDP pr\u00e1v\u011b v\u00a0uplynul\u00e9m 3. \u010dtvrtlet\u00ed byl 1,3 %. Ale r\u016fst HDP je nesen p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm r\u016fstem spot\u0159eby dom\u00e1cnost\u00ed. Cht\u011blo by se \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee r\u016fstem odlo\u017een\u00e9 spot\u0159eby dom\u00e1cnosti, kter\u00e9 prost\u011b v\u00a0krizov\u00fdch \u010dasech covidu a razantn\u00edho n\u00e1r\u016fstu inflace v\u00a0posledn\u00edch n\u011bkolika letech, zachov\u00e1valy v\u00fddajovou zdr\u017eenlivost. Naopak, zde jsou pozitivn\u011b se vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fddaje st\u00e1tu, jako druh\u00fd faktor p\u016fsob\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159\u00edzniv\u011b na v\u00fdvoj ekonomiky.<\/p>\n

Ale r\u016fst soukrom\u00fdch investic a exportu – \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 sl\u00e1va a m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b h\u016f\u0159.<\/p>\n

Nech\u00e1 \u010c\u00edna zaveden\u00ed cel na elektromobily bez pov\u0161imnut\u00ed?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Ode dne\u0161ka plat\u00ed v\u00a0cel\u00e9 EU v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed cla, na dovoz elektromobil\u016f z \u010c\u00edny. Nam\u00edsto obvykl\u00fdch 10%, bude clo diferencov\u00e1no podle jednotliv\u00fdch automobilek. U st\u00e1tn\u00ed automobilky dov\u00e1\u017eej\u00edc\u00ed do Evropy levn\u00e9 elektromobily to bude p\u0159es 40%. \u010c\u00edna zat\u00edm odpov\u011bd\u011bla velmi st\u0159\u00edzliv\u011b zaveden\u00edm vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch cel na dovoz evropsk\u00e9 brandy. Jinak \u0159e\u010deno, zejm\u00e9na cognac a armagnac, tedy alkoholick\u00e9 n\u00e1poje vyr\u00e1b\u011bn\u00e9 z\u00a0vinn\u00e9 r\u00e9vy budou zat\u00ed\u017eeny vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm clem. To bude nep\u0159\u00edjemn\u00e9, zejm\u00e9na pro francouzsk\u00e9 export\u00e9ry. Tak\u017ee \u010cLR zat\u00edm diferencuje pou\u017eit\u00edm cel na st\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 to v\u00a0EU cht\u011bly (Francie a spol.), a ty, kter\u00e9 to necht\u011bly (N\u011bmecko).<\/p>\n

P\u0159i sv\u00e9 ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u011b v\u00a0\u010c\u00edn\u011b, jsem m\u011bl mo\u017enost si prohl\u00e9dnout vozov\u00fd park, kter\u00fd jezd\u00ed na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch silnic\u00edch. Mus\u00edm \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee oproti dob\u011b p\u0159ed \u0161esti lety se zv\u00fd\u0161il razantn\u011b pod\u00edl \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch automobil\u016f a zejm\u00e9na elektromobil\u016f. Osobn\u011b si mysl\u00edm, \u017ee \u010c\u00ed\u0148an\u00e9 maj\u00ed tak levnou technologii v\u00fdroby elektromobil\u016f, \u017ee mohou prod\u00e1vat vozy na elektrick\u00fd pohon za podstatn\u011b ni\u017en\u00ed ceny, ne\u017eli evropsk\u00e9 automobilky. Nemysl\u00edm si tedy, \u017ee je to n\u011bjak\u00e1 dota\u010dn\u00ed politika \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, kter\u00e1 zp\u016fsobuje vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed konkurenceschopnost \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch v\u00fdrobc\u016f aut oproti Evrop\u011b. Jin\u00e1 v\u011bc je podpora prodeje \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch aut na vnit\u0159n\u00edm \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m trhu, kde \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da da\u0148ov\u00fdmi \u00falevami podporuje vlastn\u00ed produkci, ale to mohou ud\u011blat evropsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy s\u00a0v\u00fdrobky sv\u00fdch automobilek rovn\u011b\u017e.<\/p>\n

Kruci\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9m n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Jako \u010dert k\u0159\u00ed\u017ei se bez v\u00fdjimky v\u0161ichni koment\u00e1to\u0159i vyh\u00fdbaj\u00ed t\u00e9 hlavn\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u010din\u011b probl\u00e9m\u016f n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky. N\u011bmci si toti\u017e v\u00a0podstat\u011b nedok\u00e1zali uh\u00e1jit p\u0159\u00edstup k\u00a0levn\u00fdm rusk\u00fdm surovinov\u00fdm zdroj\u016fm. Bu\u010fme up\u0159\u00edmn\u00ed, levn\u00e9 suroviny z\u00a0Ruska, a\u0165 u\u017e to byly pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 kovy a nebo energetick\u00e9 suroviny (ropa, zemn\u00ed plyn), byly nositeli dlouholet\u00e9 prosperity a hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu N\u011bmecka a tak\u00e9 \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky. To, \u017ee to nech\u00e1pou \u010desk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 elity, tedy ty pravicov\u00e9 a rusofobn\u00ed, mne vcelku nep\u0159ekvapuje. To, \u017ee to p\u0159estali ch\u00e1pat n\u011bme\u010dt\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed soci\u00e1ln\u00ed demokrat\u00e9 a liber\u00e1lov\u00e9 (o zelen\u00fdch diletantech v\u00a0hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 oblasti nem\u00e1 smysl hovo\u0159it), je smutn\u00e9. A\u017e v\u00a0posledn\u00edch t\u00fddnech se zd\u00e1, \u017ee jak SPD, tak klerik\u00e1ln\u00ed strany CDU\/CSU, se s\u00a0ohledem na v\u00fdsledky posledn\u00edch voleb, v\u00a0n\u011bkolik spolkov\u00fdch zem\u00edch, sna\u017e\u00ed o reflexi dan\u00e9 situace. N\u011bmecko omezilo v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce finan\u010dn\u00ed a materi\u00e1ln\u00ed pomoc Ukrajin\u011b. A kancl\u00e9\u0159 nechce ani sly\u0161et o mo\u017enosti pou\u017eit\u00ed n\u011bmeck\u00fdch raket s\u00a0del\u0161\u00edm doletem v\u016f\u010di v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm v\u00a0Rusku.<\/p>\n

Prost\u011b, jednou v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b skon\u010d\u00ed (doufejme, \u017ee v\u00a0dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b) a pak bude op\u011bt pot\u0159eba nav\u00e1zat rozumn\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 vztahy s\u00a0Ruskem. A tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed pro \u010deskou ekonomiku. \u010cesko, d\u00edky sou\u010dasn\u00e9 vl\u00e1d\u011b, upadlo do \u00fapln\u00e9 z\u00e1vislosti na rozhodnut\u00edch p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch z\u00a0Washingtonu a Bruselu. To nen\u00ed pro \u010cesko p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 rozumn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup. Ekonomi\u010dt\u00ed idioti r\u00e1di hovo\u0159\u00ed o tom, \u017ee je pot\u0159eba je\u0161t\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161it na\u0161\u00ed anga\u017eovanost, respektive anga\u017eovanost st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu ve zbrojn\u00ed oblasti. Nejl\u00e9pe na 3% anebo 4 % HDP. To by prost\u011b byla ekonomick\u00e1 katastrofa a sebevra\u017eda pro \u010deskou ekonomiku. Pokud by snad \u010c\u00edna odpov\u011bd\u011bla zaveden\u00edm vlastn\u00edch cel na dovoz automobil\u016f z\u00a0Evropy, byla by to tvrd\u00e1 r\u00e1na pro evropsk\u00fd automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl. Zejm\u00e9na pro N\u011bmecko, ale tak\u00e9 pro \u010cesko. Pro \u010cesko jednak proto, \u017ee jsme velk\u00fdmi dodavateli n\u00e1hradn\u00edch d\u00edl\u016f a sou\u010d\u00e1stek pro (nejen) n\u011bmeck\u00fd automobilov\u00fd pr\u016fmysl. Tak\u017ee pokud N\u011bmci za\u010dnou zav\u00edrat fabriky na v\u00fdrobu automobil\u016f, jak o tom hovo\u0159\u00ed \u0161\u00e9fov\u00e9 koncernu Volkswagen, bude to znamenat pokles v\u00fdroby z\u0159ejm\u011b t\u00e9 nejmodern\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti \u010desk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu a to je automotive. A druh\u00fd faktor, kter\u00fd n\u00e1s \u010dek\u00e1, pokud n\u011bmeck\u00e9 a dal\u0161\u00ed automobilky budou vyv\u00e1\u017eet m\u00e9n\u011b aut na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd trh, zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed se konkurence i pro \u010desk\u00e9 automobilky. P\u0159itom \u0160koda je v\u00a0sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b druh\u00fdm \u010di t\u0159et\u00edm nejprod\u00e1van\u011bj\u0161\u00edm automobilem v zem\u00edch EU. N\u011bmeck\u00e1 ekonomika bude tedy stagnovat, a pokud se budou stup\u0148ovat ochran\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed ze strany EU a n\u00e1sledn\u011b \u010c\u00edny, m\u016f\u017eeme o hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m r\u016fstu v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch letech jenom sn\u00edt.<\/p>\n

Americk\u00e9 ekonomice se da\u0159\u00ed<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Ameri\u010dan\u00e9 jsou zat\u00edm v\u00edt\u011bzem v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b. Tedy zat\u00edm. Ohromn\u00fd zbrojn\u00ed rozpo\u010det USA p\u0159evy\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed 900 miliard dolar\u016f a zbra\u0148ov\u00e9 zak\u00e1zky pro americk\u00fd vojenskopr\u016fmyslov\u00fd komplex, jak od vl\u00e1dy USA, tak od vl\u00e1d \u010dlensk\u00fdch zem\u00ed NATO (mezi nimi v\u00e9vod\u00ed pochopiteln\u011b \u010cesk\u00e1 republika), jsou pro americk\u00fd pr\u016fmysl po\u017eehn\u00e1n\u00edm. Stejn\u011b tak, jako vytla\u010den\u00ed rusk\u00e9 konkurence, respektive levn\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch energi\u00ed a surovin z\u00a0evropsk\u00fdch trh\u016f a jejich nahrazen\u00ed jejich vlastn\u00edm zkapaln\u011bn\u00fdm plynem. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee to tak schematick\u00e9 nen\u00ed, proto\u017ee v\u00a0Evrop\u011b se objevuje rusk\u00fd plyn a ropa i nad\u00e1le. V\u00a0\u010cesku, d\u00edky tomu m\u00e1me p\u0159ijateln\u00e9 ceny pohonn\u00fdch hmot pro automobily. A v\u00a0jin\u00fdch zem\u00edch se objevuje rusk\u00e1 ropa a zemn\u00ed plyn p\u0159es prost\u0159edn\u00edky. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se tedy mohou t\u011b\u0161it v\u00a0tomto roce na meziro\u010dn\u00ed r\u016fst ekonomiky 3%.<\/p>\n

P\u0159ipome\u0148me tak\u00e9, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna se sv\u00fdm hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdm r\u016fstem p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed 5% a Rusko bude na 4%. Rusko ov\u0161em, podobn\u011b jako USA, v\u00fdznamnou \u010d\u00e1st sv\u00e9ho hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9ho r\u016fstu zaznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed d\u00edky militarizaci ekonomiky. V\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je pravda, \u017ee 14 kol sankc\u00ed EU a tak\u00e9 sankce USA, Rusko na kolena hospod\u00e1\u0159sky nesrazily. Vl\u00e1dy \u010dlensk\u00fdch zem\u00ed NATO zejm\u00e9na na ty, kter\u00e9 ur\u010duj\u00ed politiku t\u00e9to organizace, by m\u011bly vym\u011bnit strat\u00e9gy, kte\u0159\u00ed pomohli zem\u011b NATO a EU vman\u00e9vrovat do konfliktu s\u00a0Ruskem. Je \u010d\u00edm d\u00e1l z\u0159ejm\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko nelze vojensk\u00fd porazit a ani ho nelze srazit do v\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edch hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdch probl\u00e9m\u016f, kter\u00e9 by zp\u016fsobily vzbou\u0159en\u00ed jeho obyvatelstva.<\/p>\n

Ale zp\u011bt k\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9 ekonomice<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Vl\u00e1da by nem\u011bla p\u0159ehl\u00e9dnout (a mo\u017en\u00e1 ani \u010cNB) to, \u017ee v\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9 ekonomice neprob\u00edh\u00e1 dostate\u010dn\u011b rychle jej\u00ed modernizace spojen\u00e1 s\u00a0investicemi do robot\u016f, do automatizace, um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence a digitalizace. Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed zhudla\u0159en\u00ed digitalizace stavebn\u00edho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed je trapnou uk\u00e1zkou toho, jak se \u0159e\u0161\u00ed modernizace ekonomiky po \u010desku. Firmy investovali p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm do n\u00e1kupu automobil\u016f a budov a nikoliv do moderniza\u010dn\u00edch v\u00fdrobn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f. Neplat\u00ed to jist\u011b gener\u00e1ln\u011b, alte takov\u00fd je p\u0159eva\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed trend. Je to prima, kdy\u017e \u0161\u00e9fov\u00e9 maj\u00ed ve firm\u011b novou flotilu drah\u00fdch osobn\u00edch voz\u016f (v\u011bt\u0161inou z dovozu), ale ta jim produktivitu pr\u00e1ce nezv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed. Ba ani kreativitu v\u00fdkonu.<\/p>\n

Odlo\u017eme povinn\u00fd optimismus<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00a0tuhle chv\u00edli lze jenom spekulovat, kdo zv\u00edt\u011bz\u00ed v\u00a0americk\u00fdch volb\u00e1ch. Zjednodu\u0161en\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, pokud to bude K. Harrisov\u00e1, bude lok\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lka v\u00a0Evrop\u011b pokra\u010dovat a USA se bude sna\u017eit p\u0159ehodit jej\u00ed n\u00e1klady na bedra Evropan\u016f.<\/p>\n

V\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed D. Trumpa, m\u016f\u017ee znamenat rychl\u00fd konec nesmysln\u00e9 v\u00e1lky na Ukrajin\u011b, ale tak\u00e9 zah\u00e1jen\u00ed obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lky s\u00a0\u010c\u00ednou, ale tak\u00e9 s\u00a0EU. D. Trump podle n\u011bkter\u00fdch sv\u00fdm vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee p\u0159istoupit k\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00fdm ochran\u00e1\u0159sk\u00fdm opat\u0159en\u00edm na podporu americk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu v\u00a0odv\u011btv\u00edch, kter\u00e1 maj\u00ed probl\u00e9my se svou konkurenceschopnost\u00ed. A obchodn\u00ed v\u00e1lka nen\u00ed zrovna tak\u00e9 dobrou perspektivou pro exportn\u00ed ekonomiku, jako je \u010desk\u00e1, ale tak\u00e9 n\u011bmeck\u00e1. A proto\u017ee \u010desk\u00e1 ekonomika je s\u00a0tou n\u011bmeckou spjata velmi \u0161iroce hluboce, probl\u00e9my n\u011bmeck\u00e9 ekonomiky budou i na\u0161imi probl\u00e9my. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee si o hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9m r\u016fstu, v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b postaven\u00ed celn\u00edch bari\u00e9r m\u016f\u017eeme nechat jenom zd\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Na\u0161i ekonomi\u010dt\u00ed Einsteini z vl\u00e1dy Petra Fialy a skupina provl\u00e1dn\u00edch ekonom\u016f, je rozpa\u010dit\u00e1 nad nizou\u010dk\u00fdm…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":40930,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,59,45],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65397"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65397"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65397\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/40930"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65397"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65397"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65397"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}