{"id":65091,"date":"2024-10-29T00:49:14","date_gmt":"2024-10-28T23:49:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=65091"},"modified":"2024-10-28T17:49:27","modified_gmt":"2024-10-28T16:49:27","slug":"gevorg-mirzayan-zapad-pripravuje-pro-gruzii-sebevrazedny-scenar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/10\/29\/gevorg-mirzayan-zapad-pripravuje-pro-gruzii-sebevrazedny-scenar\/","title":{"rendered":"Gevorg Mirzayan: Z\u00e1pad p\u0159ipravuje pro Gruzii sebevra\u017eedn\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Gruzie se rychle propad\u00e1 do nov\u00e9 politick\u00e9 krize. V posledn\u00edch parlamentn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch zv\u00edt\u011bzila \u201eprorusk\u00e1\u201c strana s n\u00e1zvem \u201eGruz\u00ednsk\u00fd sen\u201c na Z\u00e1pad\u011b, ale prezident zem\u011b i opozice odm\u00edtaj\u00ed tyto v\u00fdsledky uznat. Gruzie nyn\u00ed \u010del\u00ed t\u0159em sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016fm \u2013 a pouze dva z nich mohou zemi zachr\u00e1nit p\u0159ed kolektivn\u00ed sebevra\u017edou.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dne 26. \u0159\u00edjna se v Gruzii konaly parlamentn\u00ed volby. O 150 k\u0159esel v parlamentu se uch\u00e1zelo 19 politick\u00fdch stran, ve skute\u010dnosti v\u0161ak bylo p\u011bt favorit\u016f schopn\u00fdch p\u0159ekonat p\u011btiprocentn\u00ed hranici. Vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed Gruz\u00ednsk\u00fd sen \u2013 a \u010dty\u0159i opozi\u010dn\u00ed strany, kter\u00e9 spojuje touha \u201evr\u00e1tit Gruzii na proz\u00e1padn\u00ed cestu\u201c, na protirusk\u00e9 koleje. Odkud se zem\u011b odvr\u00e1tila kv\u016fli touze pragmatick\u00fdch \u201esn\u00edlk\u016f\u201c sledovat kurz v souladu s n\u00e1rodn\u00edmi z\u00e1jmy a budovat funguj\u00edc\u00ed vztahy s velk\u00fdm severn\u00edm sousedem \u2013 Ruskem.<\/p>\n

V d\u016fsledku toho si obyvatelstvo zem\u011b zvolilo pragmatismus. Podle v\u00fdsledk\u016f ofici\u00e1ln\u00edho s\u010d\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed hlas\u016f m\u00edstn\u00ed volebn\u00ed komis\u00ed z\u00edskal \u201esen\u201c asi 54 procent. To j\u00ed p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u011b d\u00e1v\u00e1 89 k\u0159esel v parlamentu ze 150. Opozice m\u00e1 celkem 61 k\u0159esel.<\/p>\n

Opozice m\u00e1 v\u0161ak jin\u00fd n\u00e1zor. Podle gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9 prezidentky Salome Zurabi\u0161viliov\u00e9 z\u00edskala opozice 52 procent hlas\u016f. Americk\u00e9 pr\u016fzkumy ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed a exit polly nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee \u201esn\u00edlci\u201c maj\u00ed pouze 40 procent. Na z\u00e1klad\u011b t\u011bchto \u00fadaj\u016f opozice odm\u00edt\u00e1 uznat v\u00fdsledky voleb. Tina Boguchava ze Sjednocen\u00e9ho n\u00e1rodn\u00edho hnut\u00ed (UNM) prohl\u00e1sila, \u017ee \u201ehlasy byly ukradeny\u201c. Nika Gvaramia, v\u016fdce \u201eKoalice pro zm\u011bnu\u201c, obvinil vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed stranu z \u00fastavn\u00edho pu\u010de. A samoz\u0159ejm\u011b v\u0161ichni vyz\u00fdvaj\u00ed gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9 obyvatelstvo, aby vy\u0161lo na Majdan.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia k Majdanu p\u0159\u00edmo nevyz\u00fdvaj\u00ed, ale sv\u00fdmi texty opozici povzbuzuj\u00ed. Nap\u0159\u00edklad BBC\u00a0naz\u00fdv\u00e1<\/a>\u00a0odp\u016frce Gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9ho snu \u201eproevropskou opozic\u00ed\u201c, kter\u00e1 \u201eodm\u00edtla p\u0159ijmout v\u00fdsledky, je\u017e p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161ej\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed st\u00e1le autorit\u00e1\u0159\u0161t\u011bj\u0161\u00ed vl\u00e1dnouc\u00ed stran\u011b\u201c.\u00a0Podle den\u00edku The Washington Post<\/a>\u00a0je Gruz\u00ednsk\u00fd sen tak\u00e9 proruskou stranou. Jej\u00ed vl\u00e1da, jak upozor\u0148uje The New York Times, odcizila zemi Z\u00e1padu a p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eila ji Rusku a \u010c\u00edn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Tak\u00e9 den\u00edk The Guardian\u00a0ozna\u010duje<\/a>\u00a0Sen za \u201eproruskou stranu\u201c a uji\u0161\u0165uje, \u017ee jej\u00ed v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed \u201eby zma\u0159ilo nad\u011bje opozice na vytvo\u0159en\u00ed proz\u00e1padn\u00ed koalice \u010dty\u0159 stran a fakticky by zbrzdilo sm\u011b\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed zem\u011b k integraci do EU\u201c. Euronews\u00a0d\u00e1v\u00e1 najevo<\/a>, \u017ee volby byly \u201epochybn\u011b provedeny\u201c.<\/p>\n

K dne\u0161n\u00edmu dni by se ud\u00e1losti mohly vyv\u00edjet podle t\u0159\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f<\/h2>\n

Prvn\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 lze p\u0159edb\u011b\u017en\u011b nazvat \u201emoudr\u00e1 pokora\u201c. Sou\u010dasn\u00e9 sondy z\u00e1padn\u00edch m\u00e9di\u00ed slou\u017e\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm k n\u00e1tlaku na nov\u00e9 org\u00e1ny. Pot\u00e9 s nimi dojde k dohod\u011b \u2013 Z\u00e1pad uzn\u00e1 volby a pr\u00e1vo Gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9ho snu prov\u00e1d\u011bt n\u00e1rodn\u00ed politiku s obecn\u00fdm proevropsk\u00fdm a proz\u00e1padn\u00edm vektorem. Tedy \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159istoupen\u00ed k Euroasijsk\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 unii a k CSTO \u2013 ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nucen\u00ed k\u00a0otev\u0159en\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0\u201edruh\u00e9 fronty \u201c proti Rusku a u\u017e v\u016fbec \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e1 politika v\u016f\u010di Moskv\u011b.<\/p>\n

To by byl nejlep\u0161\u00ed a nejbezpe\u010dn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 pro Gruzii i Z\u00e1pad, pokud by USA a EU uva\u017eovaly region\u00e1ln\u011b (a racion\u00e1ln\u011b). Pomohlo by to udr\u017eet Gruzii bezpe\u010dn\u011b na z\u00e1padn\u00ed orbit\u011b.<\/p>\n

Washington a Brusel v\u0161ak uva\u017euj\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u011b, tak\u017ee necht\u011bj\u00ed, aby vznikl gruz\u00ednsk\u00fd precedens, kdy si ameri\u010dt\u00ed \u201epartne\u0159i\u201c, kte\u0159\u00ed nepat\u0159\u00ed mezi velmoci (jako Turecko nebo Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie), mohou dovolit prov\u00e1d\u011bt suver\u00e9nn\u00ed politiku bez ohledu na americk\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy. Washington proto se v\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed odm\u00edtne p\u0159istoupit na kompromis \u2013 stejn\u011b jako to odm\u00edtal v minulosti.<\/p>\n

\u201eZ\u00e1padu se nepoda\u0159ilo dos\u00e1hnout dohody s Gruz\u00ednsk\u00fdm snem, proto\u017ee postoj Bruselu a Washingtonu byl maxim\u00e1ln\u011b nepru\u017en\u00fd\u201c<\/h2>\n

V podstat\u011b po\u017eadovaly jednostrann\u00fd vstup Gruzie do v\u00e1lky proti Rusku, aby poskytly n\u011bjakou dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdhodu ukrajinsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1d\u011b. Nezaj\u00edmalo je, \u017ee Gruzie bude rychle pora\u017eena a zcela obsazena rusk\u00fdmi vojsky. Zaj\u00edmal je v\u0161ak \u201esen\u201c, kter\u00fd odm\u00edtl p\u0159istoupit na tuto kolektivn\u00ed sebevra\u017edu a musel se distancovat od Z\u00e1padu,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Nikita Mendkovi\u010d, \u0161\u00e9f Euroasijsk\u00e9ho analytick\u00e9ho klubu, v rozhovoru pro noviny VZGLYAD.<\/p>\n

Proto se nejpravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdvoj situace zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt sm\u011brem k Majdanu. Z\u00e1pad m\u00e1 s rozkol\u00eds\u00e1n\u00edm situace v Gruzii zku\u0161enosti.<\/p>\n

\u201eKdy\u017e Z\u00e1pad organizoval shrom\u00e1\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed proti z\u00e1konu o zahrani\u010dn\u00edch agentech, poda\u0159ilo se mu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b nevl\u00e1dn\u00edch organizac\u00ed v Gruzii dostat do ulic pom\u011brn\u011b hodn\u011b lid\u00ed. Krom\u011b toho dovezli aktiva z jin\u00fdch zem\u00ed,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Nikita Mendkovi\u010d. Nyn\u00ed je z\u0159ejm\u011b dovoz tak\u00e9 v pln\u00e9m proudu \u2013 v ulic\u00edch Tbilisi byl nap\u0159\u00edklad spat\u0159en ukrajinsk\u00fd poslanec a \u00fa\u010dastn\u00edk upalov\u00e1n\u00ed lid\u00ed v Dom\u011b odbor\u016f Oleksij Gon\u010darenko. Salome Zurabi\u0161viliov\u00e1 ji\u017e za\u010dala p\u0159ipravovat proces neuzn\u00e1n\u00ed parlamentn\u00edch voleb.<\/p>\n

V p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u00fasp\u011bchu Majdanu je velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee v Gruzii vznikne p\u0159echodn\u00e1 vl\u00e1da v \u010dele s jedin\u00fdm zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edm legitimn\u00edm p\u0159edstavitelem moci \u2013 proz\u00e1padn\u00edm prezidentem Salome Zurabi\u0161vilim.<\/p>\n

A pak zemi \u010dekaj\u00ed nov\u00e9 volby (tentokr\u00e1t s nezbytn\u00fdm p\u0159epo\u010dtem), n\u00e1stup rusofob\u016f k moci \u2013 a vlastn\u011b i kolektivn\u00ed sebevra\u017eda kv\u016fli z\u00e1sahu t\u011bchto rusofob\u016f do ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu.<\/p>\n

Koneckonc\u016f, jestli\u017ee d\u0159\u00edve si \u201ez\u00e1padn\u00ed partne\u0159i\u201c vysta\u010dili pouze s \u00fa\u010dast\u00ed Gruzie na pokusech o izolaci Ruska a n\u00e1tlaku na Ji\u017en\u00ed Osetii a Abch\u00e1zii, nyn\u00ed pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed plnohodnotnou druhou frontu. \u201eV sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b se zrychluje osvobozov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny a oni tomu cht\u011bj\u00ed zabr\u00e1nit jak\u00fdmikoliv prost\u0159edky \u2013 v\u010detn\u011b vyu\u017eit\u00ed gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Nikita Mendkovi\u010d.<\/p>\n

Pokud Majdan sel\u017ee \u2013 tedy gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady se postav\u00ed na vlastn\u00ed nohy a s pomoc\u00ed organizovan\u00e9ho Antimajdanu dok\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ubr\u00e1nit sv\u00e9 volby \u2013 uk\u00e1\u017ee se, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed \u201evah-bang\u201c povede ke zcela re\u00e1ln\u00e9mu politick\u00e9mu bankrotu USA a EU. Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by \u201esn\u00edlci\u201c \u2013 jakkoli jsou proz\u00e1padn\u00ed \u2013 Washingtonu pokus o p\u0159evrat odpustili. Co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee kurz sbli\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed s Moskvou bude urychlen. \u201eAby se Tbilisi nedostalo do izolace, ji\u017e nyn\u00ed buduje vztahy s Moskvou,\u201c \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 Nikita Mendkovi\u010d.<\/p>\n

Tyto vztahy m\u00edvaj\u00ed sklen\u011bn\u00e9 stropy \u2013 jako nap\u0159\u00edklad uzn\u00e1n\u00ed nez\u00e1vislosti Ji\u017en\u00ed Osetie a Abch\u00e1zie ze strany Moskvy, kter\u00e9 Gruzie pova\u017euje za sv\u00e1 \u00fazem\u00ed. Nyn\u00ed mohou b\u00fdt tyto stropy prolomeny \u2013 \u201esn\u00edlci\u201c ji\u017e u\u010dinili prvn\u00ed krok uzn\u00e1n\u00edm gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9 odpov\u011bdnosti za v\u00e1lku v roce 2008.<\/p>\n

Neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee z\u00edtra uznaj\u00ed i nez\u00e1vislost nov\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed, ale m\u016f\u017eeme alespo\u0148 hovo\u0159it o budov\u00e1n\u00ed dialogu na nov\u00e9 \u00farovni vztah\u016f. Dialogu s pomoc\u00ed Moskvy \u2013 a s vd\u011b\u010dnost\u00ed Moskv\u011b, kter\u00e1 se m\u016f\u017ee projevit v materi\u00e1ln\u00edch kroc\u00edch. A\u017e po obnoven\u00ed diplomatick\u00fdch vztah\u016f.<\/p>\n

Co\u017e bude ve sv\u00e9m d\u016fsledku nejv\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00ed r\u00e1na cel\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed strategii \u201edemokratizace\u201c postsov\u011btsk\u00e9ho prostoru. A mo\u017en\u00e1 to v\u016fdce Arm\u00e9nie a Moldavska n\u011b\u010demu nau\u010d\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Gevorg Mirzayan je docentem na Vysok\u00e9 \u0161kole finan\u010dn\u00ed.<\/i><\/p>\n

\n

\u0417\u0430\u043f\u0430\u0434 \u0433\u043e\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0438\u0442 \u0441\u0430\u043c\u043e\u0443\u0431\u0438\u0439\u0441\u0442\u0432\u0435\u043d\u043d\u044b\u0439 \u0441\u0446\u0435\u043d\u0430\u0440\u0438\u0439 \u0434\u043b\u044f \u0413\u0440\u0443\u0437\u0438\u0438<\/a> vy\u0161el 27.10.2024 na vz.ru. P\u0159eklad\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gruzie se rychle propad\u00e1 do nov\u00e9 politick\u00e9 krize. V posledn\u00edch parlamentn\u00edch volb\u00e1ch zv\u00edt\u011bzila \u201eprorusk\u00e1\u201c strana…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":64953,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[4665,381,27,365],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65091"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=65091"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/65091\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64953"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=65091"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=65091"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=65091"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}