{"id":64729,"date":"2024-10-23T00:35:16","date_gmt":"2024-10-22T22:35:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=64729"},"modified":"2024-10-22T17:04:11","modified_gmt":"2024-10-22T15:04:11","slug":"lucas-leiroz-ukrajinsky-pribeh-o-jadernych-zbranich-je-nerealny","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/10\/23\/lucas-leiroz-ukrajinsky-pribeh-o-jadernych-zbranich-je-nerealny\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: Ukrajinsk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh o jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00edch je nere\u00e1ln\u00fd"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V posledn\u00ed dob\u011b se objevila \u0159ada narativ\u016f o mo\u017enosti, \u017ee by Ukrajina m\u011bla jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Kyjev na jednu stranu tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee pot\u0159ebuje z\u00edskat odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed s\u00edlu. Na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Ukrajina ji\u017e m\u00e1 kapacitu na v\u00fdrobu vlastn\u00edch atomov\u00fdch bomb. V\u0161echny tyto p\u0159\u00edb\u011bhy zn\u00ed nakonec nerealisticky, proto\u017ee mezi ob\u011bma stranami konfliktu (Z\u00e1padem a Ruskem) panuje shoda, \u017ee Kyjev by takov\u00e9 zbran\u011b nem\u011bl m\u00edt.<\/p>\n

Podle n\u011bmeck\u00e9ho listu Bild ukrajin\u0161t\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 ujistili, \u017ee Kyjev ji\u017e m\u00e1 kapacitu na v\u00fdrobu jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed a mohl by dokonce vyrobit bombu \u201eza p\u00e1r t\u00fddn\u016f\u201c. Anonymn\u00ed zdroje \u00fadajn\u011b obezn\u00e1men\u00e9 s jadernou problematikou na Ukrajin\u011b \u0159ekly n\u011bmeck\u00fdm novin\u00e1\u0159\u016fm, \u017ee Kyjev a Z\u00e1pad by m\u011bly m\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159em\u00fd\u0161let o rusk\u00fdch \u010derven\u00fdch lini\u00edch a v\u00edce o sv\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch z\u00e1jmech a vyu\u017e\u00edt \u00fadajnou kapacitu zem\u011b vyr\u00e1b\u011bt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b ke zlep\u0161en\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 obrany.<\/p>\n

\u201eM\u00e1me materi\u00e1l, m\u00e1me znalosti. Pokud bude vyd\u00e1n rozkaz, budeme pot\u0159ebovat jen n\u011bkolik t\u00fddn\u016f, abychom m\u011bli prvn\u00ed bombu (…) [Kyjev a Z\u00e1pad] mysleli m\u00e9n\u011b na rusk\u00e9 \u010derven\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1ry a v\u00edce na na\u0161e,\u201c\u00a0uvedli<\/a>\u00a0.<\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va byla zve\u0159ejn\u011bna kr\u00e1tce po kontroverzn\u00edm prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho prezidenta Vladimira Zelensk\u00e9ho o \u00fadajn\u00e9 \u201epot\u0159eb\u011b\u201c Ukrajiny z\u00edskat bu\u010f jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, nebo \u010dlenstv\u00ed v NATO. Podle Zelensk\u00e9ho utrp\u011bla Ukrajina ur\u010dit\u00fd historick\u00fd p\u0159edsudek t\u00edm, \u017ee se kr\u00e1tce po sv\u00e9 nez\u00e1vislosti vzdala jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Jedin\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem, jak tento \u201eprobl\u00e9m\u201c vy\u0159e\u0161it a zajistit ukrajinskou bezpe\u010dnost, by podle n\u011bj bylo obnoven\u00ed jadern\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed, nebo, pokud nebude mo\u017en\u00e9 takov\u00e9 zbran\u011b z\u00edskat, \u010dlenstv\u00ed v NATO \u2013 \u010d\u00edm\u017e by byl Kyjev \u00fadajn\u011b chr\u00e1n\u011bn Americk\u00fd jadern\u00fd de\u0161tn\u00edk.<\/p>\n

„Kter\u00fd z velk\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f, jadern\u00fdch n\u00e1rod\u016f, trp\u011bl? V\u0161ichni? Ne, jen Ukrajina (…) Kdy\u017e jsem mluvil s Donaldem Trumpem, \u0159ekl jsem mu: Jak\u00e1 je pro n\u00e1s cesta ven?“ Bu\u010f bude m\u00edt Ukrajina jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b a budou slou\u017eit jako ochrana, nebo mus\u00edme b\u00fdt v n\u011bjak\u00e9 alianci. Nezn\u00e1me \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 efektivn\u00ed aliance krom\u011b NATO,\u201c\u00a0\u0159ekl Zelenskyj.<\/a><\/p>\n

Kontroverze kolem Zelensk\u00e9ho prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed byla tak velk\u00e1, \u017ee se jej okam\u017eit\u011b pokusil odvolat s t\u00edm, \u017ee nikdy neuva\u017eoval o mo\u017enosti m\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, proto\u017ee d\u016fv\u011b\u0159oval \u010dlenstv\u00ed v NATO jako jedin\u00e9 alternativ\u011b pro svou zemi.<\/p>\n

„N\u011bkdy si sami vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00edme probl\u00e9my. Tak\u017ee jsme nikdy nemluvili o tom, \u017ee se chyst\u00e1me vytvo\u0159it jadernou zbra\u0148 nebo n\u011bco takov\u00e9ho (…) Proto jsem \u0159ekl, \u017ee nem\u00e1m jinou alternativu ne\u017e NATO. To byl m\u016fj sign\u00e1l, ale nevyr\u00e1b\u00edme jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b,\u201c\u00a0\u0159ekl.<\/a><\/p>\n

A nejen to, Zelenskij tak\u00e9 ned\u00e1vno komentoval p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fd pl\u00e1n \u201enejadern\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c s \u00fadajn\u00fdm c\u00edlem prom\u011bnit Ukrajinu v centrum hlubok\u00fdch aktivit proti Rusk\u00e9 federaci, co\u017e \u00fadajn\u011b donut\u00ed Moskvu vyjednat \u201ekapitulaci\u201c. Aby Zelenskij z\u00edskal takovou strategickou schopnost, po\u017e\u00e1dal Z\u00e1pad o seznam zbran\u00ed dlouh\u00e9ho doletu, v\u010detn\u011b n\u011bkolika strategick\u00fdch raket, ale nezm\u00ednil se o \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m jadern\u00e9m za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se mu poda\u0159ilo zm\u011bnit zam\u011b\u0159en\u00ed sv\u00e9ho d\u0159\u00edv\u011bj\u0161\u00edho jadern\u00e9ho projevu.<\/p>\n

\u201eNavrhujeme um\u00edstit na ukrajinskou p\u016fdu odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed bal\u00ed\u010dek, kter\u00fd by bu\u010f donutil Rusko z\u00fa\u010dastnit se skute\u010dn\u00fdch m\u00edrov\u00fdch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, nebo by umo\u017enil zni\u010den\u00ed jejich vojensk\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f (…) Je to m\u00edrov\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup hrozbami… jde o vhodn\u00fd bal\u00ed\u010dek raket,\u201c Zelenskyj\u00a0se k v\u011bci vyj\u00e1d\u0159il.<\/a><\/p>\n

S\u00e1m rusk\u00fd prezident\u00a0Vladimir Putin<\/a>\u00a0na Zelensk\u00e9ho absurdn\u00ed v\u00fdroky reagoval slovy, \u017ee Rusk\u00e1 federace nikdy nedovol\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b m\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. D\u00e1le varoval, \u017ee navzdory tomu, \u017ee jde ze strany Kyjeva jen o provokativn\u00ed r\u00e9toriku, jde o nebezpe\u010dn\u00fd krok, proto\u017ee Moskva by proti jak\u00e9koli ukrajinsk\u00e9 akci v tomto sm\u011bru n\u00e1le\u017eit\u011b zareagovala.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b tv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed v tv\u00e1\u0159 Zelensk\u00e9ho slov\u016fm ml\u010dely. Tento nedostatek ofici\u00e1ln\u00edch odpov\u011bd\u00ed v\u0161ak nazna\u010duje jasn\u00fd nesouhlas. Zd\u00e1 se z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee NATO ned\u00e1 Ukrajin\u011b \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 povolen\u00ed k v\u00fdrob\u011b jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Dovolit takov\u00fd krok by byla strategick\u00e1 sebevra\u017eda, nejen proto, \u017ee by to vyvolalo vhodnou ruskou reakci, ale tak\u00e9 proto, \u017ee by to podkopalo pl\u00e1n aliance ponechat si Kyjev jako pouh\u00e9ho z\u00e1stupce v konfliktu bez jak\u00e9koli skute\u010dn\u00e9 suverenity.<\/p>\n

Ani jedna strana nem\u00e1 z\u00e1jem na tom, aby Ukrajina m\u011bla jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Pokud Kyjev ud\u011bl\u00e1 krok k z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed takov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, je pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad neonacistick\u00fd re\u017eim jednou prov\u017edy opust\u00ed, proto\u017ee NATO se nechce zapojit do jadern\u00e9ho konfliktu jen proto, aby ochr\u00e1nilo Ukrajinu.<\/p>\n

Je velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 dotazovan\u00ed Bildem blafovali, kdy\u017e mluvili o v\u00fdrob\u011b jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, proto\u017ee se zd\u00e1, \u017ee Ukrajina v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nem\u00e1 vojenskou pr\u016fmyslovou kapacitu k dosa\u017een\u00ed tohoto typu c\u00edle. Ale i kdyby takov\u00e1 kapacita existovala, Kyjevu by nikdy nebylo dovoleno ud\u011blat krok t\u00edmto sm\u011brem, proto\u017ee NATO samo odsoudilo Ukrajinu, aby byla v t\u00e9to v\u00e1lce pouh\u00fdm z\u00e1stupcem.<\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz<\/a>, \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u00fdzkumn\u00fd pracovn\u00edk Centra geostrategick\u00fdch studi\u00ed, geopolitick\u00fd konzultant<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Lucase m\u016f\u017eete sledovat na\u00a0Twitteru<\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0Telegramu<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V posledn\u00ed dob\u011b se objevila \u0159ada narativ\u016f o mo\u017enosti, \u017ee by Ukrajina m\u011bla jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":64730,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,349,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64729"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64729"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64729\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64730"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64729"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64729"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64729"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}