{"id":64702,"date":"2024-10-22T07:57:10","date_gmt":"2024-10-22T05:57:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=64702"},"modified":"2024-10-22T07:57:10","modified_gmt":"2024-10-22T05:57:10","slug":"vedci-potvrdili-ze-v-globalnim-oteplovani-nenastala-od-roku-1970-zadna-zmena","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/10\/22\/vedci-potvrdili-ze-v-globalnim-oteplovani-nenastala-od-roku-1970-zadna-zmena\/","title":{"rendered":"V\u011bdci potvrdili, \u017ee v \u201eglob\u00e1ln\u00edm oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c nenastala od roku 1970 \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 zm\u011bna"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Senza\u010dn\u00ed nov\u00fd v\u011bdeck\u00fd v\u00fdzkum vyhlodal d\u00edry do popla\u0161n\u00fdch tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty neust\u00e1le stoupaj\u00ed. Pr\u00e1v\u011b publikovan\u00e9 v\u00fdsledky\u00a0studie<\/a>\u00a0v odborn\u00e9m \u010dasopise\u00a0Nature<\/em>\u00a0uk\u00e1zaly \u201eomezen\u00e9 d\u016fkazy\u201c o oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201eVe v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b m\u011b\u0159en\u00ed povrchov\u00fdch teplot nen\u00ed zji\u0161t\u011bna \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 zm\u011bna v rychlosti oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed po 70. letech minul\u00e9ho stolet\u00ed, a to navzdory rekordn\u00edm teplot\u00e1m pozorovan\u00fdm v roce 2023,\u201c<\/span><\/em> p\u00ed\u0161e se v dokumentu.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee studii provedla mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed skupina matematik\u016f a v\u011bdc\u016f, je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee jejich v\u00fdsledky budou prezentov\u00e1ny v mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch, kde vl\u00e1dne v\u0161eobecn\u00e1 hysterie nad anom\u00e1ln\u00ed zku\u0161enost\u00ed z roku 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak vid\u00edme, neust\u00e1le se zve\u0159ej\u0148uj\u00ed dezinformace s c\u00edlem vystra\u0161it \u0161irokou ve\u0159ejnost. P\u0159\u00edkladem toho je klimatick\u00e1 komedie s Jimym Daleem, kter\u00fd z \u201ev\u011bzen\u00ed pop\u00edra\u010d\u016f\u201c p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ka\u017ed\u00fd den Armagedon a vyb\u00edz\u00ed lidi, aby si \u201espojovali souvislosti\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve v\u011bd\u011b jedna vla\u0161tovka l\u00e9to ned\u011bl\u00e1 a v klimatologii nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 uk\u00e1zat trend v\u00fdb\u011brem kr\u00e1tk\u00fdch \u010dasov\u00fdch obdob\u00ed nebo izolovan\u00fdch pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch ud\u00e1lost\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato studie je vynikaj\u00edc\u00edm d\u00edlem klimatick\u00e9 v\u011bdy, proto\u017ee statisticky pokr\u00fdv\u00e1 dlouh\u00e9 \u010dasov\u00e9 obdob\u00ed a zpochyb\u0148uje klimatick\u00e9 alarmisty, co\u017e nestoj\u00ed ani za dva centy, ale sna\u017e\u00ed se o vir\u00e1ln\u00ed titulky v BBC.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezivl\u00e1dn\u00ed panel pro zm\u011bnu klimatu (IPCC) je sice zaujat\u00fd org\u00e1n, ale ch\u00e1pe d\u016fle\u017eitost dlouhodob\u00fdch klimatick\u00fdch trend\u016f. Na velkou zlost aktivist\u016f propaguj\u00edc\u00edch agendu \u201enulov\u00e9ho uhl\u00edku\u201c IPCC uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee nach\u00e1z\u00ed jen malou nebo \u017e\u00e1dnou lidskou \u00fa\u010dast na v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b extr\u00e9mn\u00edch pov\u011btrnostn\u00edch ud\u00e1lostech jak v minulosti, tak v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale tato zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, spolu s dokumentem o trendu oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, jsou nepohodln\u00e9 pro ty, kte\u0159\u00ed propaguj\u00ed neov\u011b\u0159en\u00e9 tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee lid\u00e9 jsou zodpov\u011bdn\u00ed za klimatick\u00e9 zm\u011bny spalov\u00e1n\u00edm fosiln\u00edch paliv.<\/span><\/p>\n

Studie je vysoce technick\u00e1 a jej\u00ed \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i se sklonem k matematice si jej\u00ed pln\u00e9 zn\u011bn\u00ed mohou sami prostudovat, nakolik je\u00a0<\/span>ve\u0159ejn\u011b p\u0159\u00edstupn\u00e1<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee soubory \u00fadaj\u016f o glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teplot\u011b kol\u00edsaj\u00ed v d\u016fsledku kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 prom\u011bnlivosti, co\u017e \u010dasto vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed dojem prudk\u00fdch n\u00e1r\u016fst\u016f a zpomalen\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Co ve skute\u010dnosti zp\u016fsobuje sou\u010dasn\u00e9 oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, ne-li CO2?<\/span><\/h2>\n

P\u0159i zkoum\u00e1n\u00ed odchylek teplot p\u0159i nejnov\u011bj\u0161\u00edm \u201e\u00fadajn\u00e9m zrychlen\u00ed oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 vz\u00edt v \u00favahu p\u0159irozen\u00e9 odchylky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti se pro ned\u00e1vn\u00fd prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst teplot poskytlo mno\u017estv\u00ed v\u011brohodn\u00fdch vysv\u011btlen\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e pozornost se soust\u0159edila na masivn\u00ed podmo\u0159skou sopku Hunga Tonga, kter\u00e1 p\u0159id\u00e1v\u00e1 do stratosf\u00e9ry 13% vodn\u00ed p\u00e1ry nav\u00edc (vodn\u00ed p\u00e1ra je siln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed sklen\u00edkov\u00fd plyn ne\u017e CO2).<\/span><\/p>\n

Dal\u0161\u00edmi vysv\u011btlen\u00edmi je siln\u00fd fenom\u00e9n El Ni\u00f1o a dokonce i sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed koncentrace zne\u010di\u0161\u0165uj\u00edc\u00edch atmosf\u00e9rick\u00fdch \u010d\u00e1stic zp\u016fsoben\u00e9 ned\u00e1vn\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami v palivu lodn\u00edch plavidel (smog z lod\u00ed st\u00ednil slunce). Matematici zohlednili n\u011bkolik \u0159ady faktor\u016f a zjistili, \u017ee \u201en\u00e1r\u016fst oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed po roce 1970 se nepoda\u0159ilo spolehliv\u011b prok\u00e1zat\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco se pozornost soust\u0159edila na to, zda do\u0161lo k pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edmu zrychlov\u00e1n\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed, bylo zji\u0161t\u011bno, jak neobvykl\u00e9 byly anom\u00e1lie povrchov\u00e9 teploty v roce 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti byly neobvykl\u00e9, \u010deho se zneu\u017eilo k tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee klima se rozpad\u00e1 nebo hloup\u00e9 slova \u0161\u00e9fa OSN\u00a0<\/span>Antonia Guterrese<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee planeta \u201ev\u0159e\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lo\u0148sk\u00e1 hysterie poslou\u017eila pro kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fd alarmismus, ale na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b pomohla zni\u010dit \u201ev\u011bdeck\u00fd konsensus\u201c o CO2. Pokud je za n\u00e1r\u016fst teplot zodpov\u011bdn\u00fd CO2 produkovan\u00fd \u010dlov\u011bkem, pro\u010d se teplota v letech 1998-2012 zastavila navzdory tomu, \u017ee hladina CO2 v atmosf\u00e9\u0159e stoupala?<\/span><\/p>\n

Klimatick\u00fd alarmismus na BBC a ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b ostatn\u00edch mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed se vys\u00edl\u00e1 jen tehdy, kdy\u017e teploty na n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f stoupnou?<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 1970 bylo v m\u00f3d\u011b glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/span><\/h2>\n

Jeden z kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f studie vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 ze dvou \u010dasov\u00fdch \u0159ad \u2013 1970 a\u017e 2023 a 2013 a\u017e 2023. To samoz\u0159ejm\u011b zahrnuje za\u010d\u00e1tek 70. let, kdy byly v m\u00f3d\u011b obavy z glob\u00e1ln\u00edho ochlazov\u00e1n\u00ed a pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 teploty klesaly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Odhadovan\u00e9 trendy zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed teplot byly \u00fadajn\u011b 0,019 \u00b0C za rok v prvn\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m segmentu a 0,029 \u00b0C v druh\u00e9m segmentu, kter\u00fd zahrnuje prudk\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst v lo\u0148sk\u00e9m roce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento odhadovan\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst 0,029 \u00b0C\/rok \u201ezaost\u00e1v\u00e1\u201c za n\u00e1r\u016fstem pot\u0159ebn\u00fdm k tomu, aby pouk\u00e1zal na zm\u011bnu trendu oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed v ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 minulosti. Je to kv\u016fli kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 variabilit\u011b v glob\u00e1ln\u00ed datab\u00e1zi UK Met Office HadCRUT od roku 1970 a \u201enejistot\u011b\u201c bodu zm\u011bny v roce 2012.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tato nejistota vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 ze spekulac\u00ed, zda byl rok 2012 a konec pauzy rokem d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 zm\u011bny v del\u0161\u00edm \u010dasov\u00e9m horizontu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201eZ\u00e1znam HadCRUT prost\u011b nen\u00ed dostate\u010dn\u011b dlouh\u00fd na to, aby byl n\u00e1r\u016fst v sou\u010dasnosti statisticky zjistiteln\u00fd,\u201c<\/span><\/em>\u00a0poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed v\u011bdci.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cliff Mass je profesorem v\u011bdy o atmosf\u00e9\u0159e na Washingtonsk\u00e9 univerzit\u011b. Pro extr\u00e9my po\u010das\u00ed m\u00e1 zlat\u00e9 pravidlo:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e\u010c\u00edm extr\u00e9mn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed je v\u00fdkyv v podneb\u00ed nebo po\u010das\u00ed, t\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek p\u0159irozen\u00e9 variability a t\u00edm men\u0161\u00ed je p\u0159\u00edsp\u011bvek glob\u00e1ln\u00edho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed zp\u016fsoben\u00e9ho \u010dlov\u011bkem.\u201c<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Jak se manipuluj\u00ed statistiky trendu teplot<\/span><\/h2>\n

Matematici pou\u017eili statistick\u00e9 techniky bodu zm\u011bny, kter\u00e9 byly navr\u017eeny k identifikaci struktur\u00e1ln\u00edch zm\u011bn v pr\u016fb\u011bhu \u010dasu. Byly pou\u017eity \u010dty\u0159i glob\u00e1ln\u00ed z\u00e1znamy pr\u016fm\u011brn\u00e9 povrchov\u00e9 teploty v letech 1850-2023, v\u010detn\u011b dat HadCRUT.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b problematick\u00e9, proto\u017ee existuj\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00e9 d\u016fkazy o tom, \u017ee tyto soubory \u00fadaj\u016f propaguj\u00ed trend oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed neopatrn\u00fdm zach\u00e1zen\u00edm s tepeln\u00fdmi zm\u011bnami ve m\u011bstech a skute\u010dnost\u00ed, \u017ee m\u011bstsk\u00e9 oblasti se otepluj\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm prob\u00edhaj\u00edc\u00ed m\u011bstsk\u00e9 z\u00e1stavby (p\u0159ib\u00fdv\u00e1n\u00ed betonu, ub\u00fdv\u00e1n\u00ed zelen\u011b).<\/span><\/p>\n

Krom\u011b toho se d\u011blaj\u00ed podstatn\u00e9 retrospektivn\u00ed \u00fapravy, kter\u00e9 \u010dasto ochlazuj\u00ed minulost a otepluj\u00ed bl\u00edzkou sou\u010dasnost, aby se zv\u00fd\u0161il \u201etrend\u201c oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee Met Office (Britsk\u00fd meteorologick\u00fd \u00fa\u0159ad) v minulosti pom\u011brn\u011b hodn\u011b psal o \u201epauze\u201c oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed v letech 1998-2012, nyn\u00ed zm\u00ednky o n\u00ed odstranil ze sv\u00fdch vlastn\u00edch z\u00e1znam\u016f p\u0159id\u00e1n\u00edm 30% zp\u011btn\u00e9ho oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Met Office se mo\u017en\u00e1 ani nemusel ob\u00e1vat t\u00e9to inkonzistence, nebo\u0165 podle matematik\u016f pauza \u201enen\u00ed neobvykl\u00e1\u201c vzhledem k \u00farovni kr\u00e1tkodob\u00e9 variability p\u0159\u00edtomn\u00e9 v \u00fadaj\u00edch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/span><\/h2>\n

Tyto soubory \u00fadaj\u016f jsou to nejlep\u0161\u00ed, co m\u00e1me, a nikdo nepochybuje o tom, \u017ee planeta se za posledn\u00edch 200 let od ukon\u010den\u00ed mal\u00e9 doby ledov\u00e9 m\u00edrn\u011b oteplila.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pou\u017eit\u00ed t\u011bchto soubor\u016f \u00fadaj\u016f pro v\u011bdeckou anal\u00fdzu je v po\u0159\u00e1dku, a\u010dkoli by se \u017e\u00e1dalo dodat, \u017ee celkov\u00e9 oteplov\u00e1n\u00ed je pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b men\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se uv\u00e1d\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Autor: Chris Morrison, Zdroj:\u00a0<\/span>dailysceptic.org<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Senza\u010dn\u00ed nov\u00fd v\u011bdeck\u00fd v\u00fdzkum vyhlodal d\u00edry do popla\u0161n\u00fdch tvrzen\u00ed, \u017ee glob\u00e1ln\u00ed teploty neust\u00e1le stoupaj\u00ed. Pr\u00e1v\u011b…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":64703,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[873,1100,1561],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64702"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64702"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64702\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64703"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64702"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64702"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64702"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}