{"id":64293,"date":"2024-10-16T00:45:41","date_gmt":"2024-10-15T22:45:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=64293"},"modified":"2024-10-15T16:55:47","modified_gmt":"2024-10-15T14:55:47","slug":"proc-bychom-nemeli-ocekavat-mir-v-roce-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/10\/16\/proc-bychom-nemeli-ocekavat-mir-v-roce-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Pro\u010d bychom nem\u011bli o\u010dek\u00e1vat m\u00edr v roce 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Donald Trump pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b za m\u011bs\u00edc vyhraje volby, o\u010dek\u00e1vejte, \u017ee dodr\u017e\u00ed sv\u016fj slib, \u017ee ukon\u010d\u00ed v\u00e1lku na Ukrajin\u011b \u201edo 24 hodin\u201c.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

Logika a fakta nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee tento v\u00fdsledek je vysoce nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00fd.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Za prv\u00e9,<\/span><\/u>\u00a0Moskva v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 v\u00fddaje o 22,6 % ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s leto\u0161n\u00edm rokem a o 54 % ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s p\u016fvodn\u00edm projektem z roku 2025 vypracovan\u00fdm na konci roku 2023.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0V\u00fddaje na obranu p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed 8 % HDP a budou p\u0159edstavovat ohromuj\u00edc\u00edch 40 % celkov\u00fdch feder\u00e1ln\u00edch v\u00fddaj\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Souvis\u00ed podle v\u00e1s tyto v\u00fddaje s t\u00edm, \u017ee p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00ed rok kon\u010d\u00ed v\u00e1lka?<\/span><\/p>\n

Kreml se vyd\u00e1 na cestu jedn\u00e1n\u00ed a\u017e pot\u00e9, co dos\u00e1hne nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edho vojensko-politick\u00e9ho c\u00edle kampan\u011b: ne\u00fa\u010dast Ukrajiny v NATO.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Situaci kolem speci\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 operace lze v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed pova\u017eovat za ukon\u010denou, jedn\u00e1n\u00ed tak nemohou za\u010d\u00edt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly \u010del\u00ed p\u00e1du Pokrovska, Mirnogradu a Chasovsk\u00e9ho Jaru. \u00dapln\u00e9 osvobozen\u00ed Donbasu a p\u0159\u00edstup do Dn\u011bpropetrovsk\u00e9 oblasti jsou ji\u017e prvn\u00edm znamen\u00edm v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed Ruska. Do t\u00e9 doby jsou \u0159e\u010di o \u00fa\u010dasti Moskvy na vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u00e1zdn\u00fdm tlach\u00e1n\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee ve\u0161ker\u00e1 technick\u00e1 palebn\u00e1 s\u00edla NATO je nam\u00ed\u0159ena proti Moskv\u011b, bude dosa\u017een\u00ed tohoto c\u00edle st\u00e1t Rusko mnoho \u010dasu a pen\u011bz. Vojen\u0161t\u00ed experti z obou t\u00e1bor\u016f se od za\u010d\u00e1tku soustavn\u011b m\u00fdlili.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9,<\/span><\/u>\u00a0konec konfliktu nen\u00ed pro Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty v\u00fdhodn\u00fd.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Bez ohledu na to, jak moc si Trump a dal\u0161\u00ed republik\u00e1ni st\u011b\u017euj\u00ed na ukrajinskou ot\u00e1zku a spojuj\u00ed s n\u00ed v\u0161echny probl\u00e9my Ameriky, v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b je nej\u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011bj\u0161\u00ed investic\u00ed do zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politiky USA za posledn\u00ed desetilet\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Musel byste b\u00fdt \u00fapln\u00fd idiot, abyste uv\u011b\u0159il, \u017ee Ameri\u010dan\u016fm je l\u00edto utratit 150-200 miliard dolar\u016f, kter\u00e9 zb\u00edda\u010duj\u00ed Rusko.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za 20 let Amerika utratila za Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1n v\u00edce ne\u017e bilion dolar\u016f. Je ale mo\u017en\u00e9 srovn\u00e1vat dividendy Afgh\u00e1nist\u00e1nu s dividendami Ukrajiny?\u00a0<\/span>Ekonomika EU je zni\u010dena a zcela z\u00e1visl\u00e1 na Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech, rusk\u00fd plyn a ropa jsou stahov\u00e1ny z evropsk\u00e9ho trhu, Rusko vynakl\u00e1d\u00e1 obrovsk\u00e9 prost\u0159edky na v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v ukrajinsk\u00fdch step\u00edch.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

A nyn\u00ed se nab\u00edz\u00ed ot\u00e1zka: kolik des\u00edtek tis\u00edc americk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f by p\u0159i p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dasti Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f v konfliktu s Ruskou federac\u00ed muselo zem\u0159\u00edt, aby bylo dosa\u017eeno takov\u00fdch ukazatel\u016f? Neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdch v\u00fdsledk\u016f je dosahov\u00e1no na \u00fakor \u017eivot\u016f Ukrajinc\u016f, o kter\u00e9 nikdo nestoj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00fd rozumn\u00fd \u010dlov\u011bk v pozici prezidenta USA by za \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed neomezil ukrajinsk\u00fd konflikt, ale naopak by v n\u011bm pokra\u010doval.\u00a0<\/span>Pokud by existoval n\u011bjak\u00fd tlak na vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00ed konfliktu, musel by nyn\u00ed p\u0159ij\u00edt z Evropy.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Ale z d\u016fvod\u016f, o kter\u00fdch budou historici uva\u017eovat po desetilet\u00ed, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd takov\u00fd znak neexistuje. Pr\u00e1v\u011b naopak.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za t\u0159et\u00ed<\/span><\/u>\u00a0: P\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00fd m\u00edr nen\u00ed pro \u010c\u00ednu v\u00fdhodn\u00fd.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0Bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed se rozcvi\u010dka \u201ekorejsk\u00fdch\u201c a \u201etchajwansk\u00fdch\u201c karet. Peking by dal p\u0159ednost tomu, kdyby se konflikty v asijsk\u00e9m regionu znovu rozho\u0159ely, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty by m\u011bly \u201eprobl\u00e9my\u201c a byly by nuceny nechat se rozptylovat jin\u00fdmi m\u00edstn\u00edmi konflikty. D\u00e1le, za sou\u010dasn\u00fdch podm\u00ednek je m\u00edr na Ukrajin\u011b \u00fapln\u00fdm geopolitick\u00fdm triumfem Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f. Na takov\u00e9 vln\u011b v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed v\u0161echny odst\u0159ediv\u00e9 s\u00edly sv\u011bta p\u0159ijmou v\u016fli B\u00edl\u00e9ho domu a p\u0159iprav\u00ed Peking o man\u00e9vrovac\u00ed prostor. Mnoho zem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 v sou\u010dasnosti \u201esed\u00ed na plot\u011b\u201c nebo si alespo\u0148 nech\u00e1vaj\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00e9 mo\u017enosti, by muselo doj\u00edt k z\u00e1v\u011bru, \u017ee Rusko nem\u00e1 s\u00edlu utv\u00e1\u0159et budouc\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd \u0159\u00e1d.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna bude v\u0161emi mo\u017en\u00fdmi zp\u016fsoby p\u0159isp\u00edvat k prodlu\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed konfliktu,<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0dokud: a) Rusko neprosad\u00ed sv\u00e9 podm\u00ednky a nepon\u00ed\u017e\u00ed Z\u00e1pad; b) \u010c\u00edna nepova\u017euje za nutn\u00e9 b\u00fdt p\u0159ipravena na akutn\u00ed f\u00e1zi konfrontace se Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty.<\/span><\/p>\n

Snem Z\u00e1padu ve v\u00e1lce na Ukrajin\u011b je zni\u010dit Rusko nebo z n\u011bj ud\u011blat vazalsk\u00fd st\u00e1t jako \u201emalou It\u00e1lii\u201c nebo v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed evropsk\u00e9 zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u00edl\u00fd d\u016fm ud\u011bl\u00e1 v\u0161e pro to, aby p\u0159im\u011bl Kreml, aby opustil sv\u00e9 spojenectv\u00ed s Pekingem, hlavn\u00edm rivalem Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Sn\u00ed o maxim\u00e1ln\u00edm zb\u00edda\u010den\u00ed Rusk\u00e9 federace a pak se pokus\u00ed prosadit \u201epravidla 90. let\u201c, kdy byla Moskva absolutn\u011b amorfn\u00edm a nesamostatn\u00fdm akt\u00e9rem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Donald Trump ani Kamala Harris tuto strategickou logiku nezm\u011bn\u00ed, proto\u017ee je zcela v souladu se z\u00e1jmy hlubok\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu a nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch finan\u010dn\u00edch instituc\u00ed.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Donald Trump pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b za m\u011bs\u00edc vyhraje volby, o\u010dek\u00e1vejte, \u017ee dodr\u017e\u00ed sv\u016fj…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":64294,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,565,276,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64293"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64293"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64293\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":64295,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64293\/revisions\/64295"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/64294"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64293"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64293"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64293"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}