{"id":64260,"date":"2024-10-15T00:45:58","date_gmt":"2024-10-14T22:45:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=64260"},"modified":"2024-10-14T18:48:09","modified_gmt":"2024-10-14T16:48:09","slug":"jiri-paroubek-blizi-se-velky-globalni-konflikt-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/10\/15\/jiri-paroubek-blizi-se-velky-globalni-konflikt-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: Bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed se velk\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed konflikt?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Soudn\u00ed lid\u00e9 se zat\u00edm vcelku opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u011b ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed a zejm\u00e9na eskalace vojensk\u00e9ho konfliktu mezi Ruskem a Ukrajinou, resp. mezi Ruskem a t\u00edm, \u010demu Rusko \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 kolektivn\u00ed Z\u00e1pad. Ten pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 voj\u00e1ky Ukrajiny jaksi v zastoupen\u00ed ve sv\u00e9m boji proti Rusku. Nyn\u00ed na St\u0159edn\u00edm v\u00fdchod\u011b m\u00e1me \u2013 krom\u011b Gazy \u2013 je\u0161t\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed frontu v Libanonu, na jeho\u017e jihu nyn\u00ed prob\u00edhaj\u00ed urputn\u00e9 boje mezi izraelskou arm\u00e1dou a Hizball\u00e1hem.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tak jako p\u0159ed I. sv\u011btovou v\u00e1lkou byl velk\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem evropsk\u00e9 a tedy i sv\u011btov\u00e9 politiky Balk\u00e1n. Tak za posledn\u00edch 80 let to je St\u0159edn\u00ed v\u00fdchod nebo p\u0159esn\u011bji z\u00e1padn\u00ed Asie anebo chcete-li j\u00edt je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce do detailu, vztahy mezi Izraelem a jeho arabsk\u00fdmi sousedy.<\/p>\n

Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee v\u00a0tuto chv\u00edli m\u00e1 Izrael klidnou hranici s\u00a0Jord\u00e1nskem i Egyptem. Ob\u011b tyto arabsk\u00e9 zem\u011b udr\u017euj\u00ed s\u00a0Izraelem ne sice v\u0159el\u00e9, ale korektn\u00ed vztahy. Elity t\u011bchto st\u00e1t\u016f jsou proz\u00e1padn\u00ed, ale masy jejich obyvatelstva nikoliv, jsou protiamerick\u00e9 a protiizraelsk\u00e9. Ve v\u0161ech autoritativn\u00edch st\u00e1tech se mus\u00ed db\u00e1t tak anebo onak na m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed ve\u0159ejnosti, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0citliv\u00fdch vztaz\u00edch s\u00a0Izraelem. Tak\u017ee i Egypt a Jord\u00e1nsko mus\u00ed b\u00fdt v tomto sm\u011bru opatrn\u00e9.<\/p>\n

V p\u00e1smu Gazy se Izrael p\u0159ed rokem pustil do velk\u00e9ho v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho dobrodru\u017estv\u00ed. Nedomn\u00edv\u00e1m se, na rozd\u00edl od mnoh\u00fdch, \u017ee je mo\u017en\u00e9 Ham\u00e1s a jeho „politickou kulturu\u201c beze zbytku zlikvidovat, jak si to p\u0159edstavuje izraelsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Netanjahu a izrael\u0161t\u00ed vl\u00e1dn\u00ed \u010dinitel\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed ho podporuj\u00ed. Boje s\u00a0hnut\u00edm Ham\u00e1s st\u00e1le prob\u00edhaj\u00ed, i kdy\u017e s\u00a0men\u0161\u00ed intenzitou, ne\u017eli p\u0159ed p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edci. Proto se Izrael mohl pustit do vojensk\u00e9ho st\u0159etu s\u00a0\u0161\u00editsk\u00fdm hnut\u00edm Hizball\u00e1h, kter\u00e9 je v\u00a0z\u00e1sad\u011b vydr\u017eov\u00e1no \u00cdr\u00e1nem. Pozice tohoto hnut\u00ed v\u00a0libanonsk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, v\u00a0podstat\u011b rozvr\u00e1cen\u00e9 finan\u010dn\u00edm bankrotem st\u00e1tu, je ov\u0161em mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b siln\u00e1. V\u00a0\u010desk\u00fdch mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00edch se dnes hovo\u0159\u00ed o tom, \u017ee Hizball\u00e1h nen\u00ed vlastn\u011b obl\u00edben ani mezi \u0160i\u00edty a u\u017e v\u016fbec ne mezi Sunnity a k\u0159es\u0165any, kte\u0159\u00ed \u017eij\u00ed v\u00a0Libanonu. Mysl\u00edm, \u017ee je to pravda jen \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b. Toto hnut\u00ed toti\u017e nen\u00ed jen vojenskou silou, ale zaji\u0161\u0165uje za st\u00e1t, kter\u00fd toho nen\u00ed schopen, pro obyvatelstvo zdravotnick\u00e9 slu\u017eby. Tedy provozuje nemocnice, ale tak\u00e9 \u0161koly, soci\u00e1ln\u00ed slu\u017eby atd.<\/p>\n

A to nejen pro \u0160i\u00edty, ale i pro dal\u0161\u00ed ob\u010dany libanonsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu. Tedy alespo\u0148 tam, kde na tom m\u00e1 s\u00e1m z\u00e1jem a kde je o to tak\u00e9 v\u00a0libanonsk\u00e9 mnohokonfesijn\u00ed spole\u010dnosti z\u00e1jem. Des\u00edtky tis\u00edc voj\u00e1k\u016f tohoto hnut\u00ed bojovaly v\u00a0S\u00fdrii proti d\u017eih\u00e1dist\u016fm. Spolu s\u00a0vojenskou silou Ruska zachr\u00e1nili v\u00a0S\u00fdrii sekul\u00e1rn\u00ed vl\u00e1du Ba\u0161\u00e1ra Asada p\u0159ed zni\u010den\u00edm. Hizball\u00e1h m\u00e1 modern\u00ed zbran\u011b (i kdy\u017e ne na t\u00e9 \u00farovni jako Izrael), ale zejm\u00e9na m\u00e1 v\u00a0boj\u00edch v S\u00fdrii zocelenou a zku\u0161enou arm\u00e1du. Ta se m\u016f\u017ee vyrovnat bojeschopnost\u00ed t\u00e9 izraelsk\u00e9. V\u00a0roce 2006 Izrael p\u0159i vojensk\u00e9m st\u0159etu s\u00a0Hizball\u00e1hem, neukon\u010dil v\u00e1lku poprv\u00e9 ve st\u0159etnut\u00ed s\u00a0Araby vojensk\u00fdm v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Na sou\u010dasn\u00e9 st\u0159etnut\u00ed s\u00a0Hizball\u00e1hem a jeho spojenci se Izrael dlouho a velmi sofistikovan\u011b p\u0159ipravoval. Rozhodl se za\u00fato\u010dit n\u011bkolikastup\u0148ov\u011b na velitelsk\u00e9 struktury Hizball\u00e1hu, a to likvidac\u00ed jeho v\u016fdc\u016f, jeho nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edho velen\u00ed. Ale prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm atent\u00e1t\u016f do pager\u016f a mobil\u016f vlo\u017een\u00fdch v\u00fdbu\u0161nin eliminoval i ur\u010ditou \u010d\u00e1st st\u0159edn\u00edch velitelsk\u00fdch k\u00e1dr\u016f hnut\u00ed. Po tomto ochromen\u00ed velitelsk\u00fdch k\u00e1dr\u016f Hizball\u00e1hu doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0pozemn\u00ed operaci izraelsk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy. Je ot\u00e1zkou, zda a jak likvidace velitelsk\u00fdch k\u00e1dr\u016f sn\u00ed\u017eila bojeschopnost Hizball\u00e1hu v\u00a0nast\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lce. Mysl\u00edm si, \u017ee m\u00edsto Nasrall\u00e1ha v\u00a0\u010dele Hizball\u00e1hu se objev\u00ed mlad\u0161\u00ed, dynami\u010dt\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a mo\u017en\u00e1 i rafinovan\u011bj\u0161\u00ed protivn\u00edk Izraele. Z\u00a0logiky v\u011bci bude Izrael cht\u00edt zajistit nejen bezpe\u010dnou ji\u017en\u00ed hranici (Gaza), ale tak\u00e9 bezpe\u010dnou severn\u00ed hranici vytla\u010den\u00edm Hizball\u00e1hu za \u0159eku L\u00edt\u00e1n\u00ed asi 30 km od hranic Izraele.<\/p>\n

Je ot\u00e1zka, zda izraelsk\u00fd premi\u00e9r Netanjahu bude pokra\u010dovat v\u00a0\u00fatoc\u00edch tak\u00e9 na dal\u0161\u00edch front\u00e1ch. Zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0S\u00fdrii, kter\u00e1 m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt mostem, po n\u011bm\u017e bude doch\u00e1zet k\u00a0p\u0159esun\u016fm \u0161\u00editsk\u00fdch milic z\u00a0Ir\u00e1ku a \u00cdr\u00e1nu k izraelsk\u00e9 hranici. Netanjahu by ov\u0161em nem\u011bl p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eet skute\u010dnost, \u017ee v posledn\u00ed dob\u011b doch\u00e1z\u00ed k\u00a0rychl\u00e9mu sbli\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed vedouc\u00edch \u010dinitel\u016f Turecka a S\u00fdrie. Turecko je p\u0159\u00edtomno vojensky v severn\u00ed S\u00fdrii. A zat\u00edm tam ovl\u00e1d\u00e1 oblasti ob\u00fdvan\u00e9 Kurdy. A na severoz\u00e1pad\u011b S\u00fdrie dr\u017e\u00ed pod kontrolou enkl\u00e1vu posledn\u00edch d\u017eih\u00e1distick\u00fdch bojovn\u00edk\u016f proti sekul\u00e1rn\u00edmu re\u017eimu Ba\u0161\u00e1ra As\u00e1da. D\u00e1 se tedy \u0159\u00edci, \u017ee tito zbyl\u00ed d\u017eih\u00e1dist\u00e9 p\u0159e\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed v\u00a0jedn\u00e9 syrsk\u00e9 provincii, ani\u017e by mohli v\u00fdznamn\u011bji ovlivnit d\u011bn\u00ed v\u00a0S\u00fdrii.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0tomto t\u00fddnu do\u0161lo k pom\u011brn\u011b masivn\u00edmu \u00fatoku \u00cdr\u00e1nu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm raket ji\u017e technicky vysp\u011blej\u0161\u00edch a brizantn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch ne\u017eli byly ty, kter\u00e9 \u00cdr\u00e1nci pou\u017eili k\u00a0demonstrativn\u00edmu \u00fatoku na Izrael v\u00a0dubnu. Podle vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch \u010dinitel\u016f byly c\u00edlem \u00fatoku vojensk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed Izraele. Tedy leti\u0161t\u011b, z\u00e1kladny apod. Nyn\u00ed bude n\u00e1sledovat izraelsk\u00e1 odveta. A te\u010f jde jen o to, jak\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem bude koncipov\u00e1na a kalibrov\u00e1na. Pokud bude \u00fatok Izraelc\u016f zam\u011b\u0159en na vojensk\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu, bude to mo\u017en\u00e9 pochopit a jist\u011b i zd\u016fvodnit. Pokud to bude \u00fatok na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed nebo na \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 ropn\u00e9 rafinerie, bude to znamenat v\u00a0podstat\u011b rozto\u010den\u00ed spir\u00e1ly konfliktu do dimenz\u00ed, jejich\u017e konce lze t\u011b\u017eko dohl\u00e9dnout.<\/p>\n

P\u0159itom na obou stran\u00e1ch konfliktu, tedy v\u00a0Izraeli a v\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1nu, jsou nesporn\u011b s\u00edly, kter\u00e9 si vojensk\u00fd st\u0159et obou zem\u00ed p\u0159ej\u00ed. Pokud by nap\u0159. ze v\u0161ech stran (z Gazy, ji\u017en\u00edho Libanonu, Jemenu i z \u00cdr\u00e1nu) l\u00e9taly v jednom okam\u017eiku rakety na Izrael ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm mno\u017estv\u00ed. T\u0159eba v\u00a0\u0159\u00e1du tis\u00edce \u010di dvou, protiraketov\u00fd syst\u00e9m Izraele by byl zahlcen. \u00cdr\u00e1nci mohou tak\u00e9 doj\u00edt k\u00a0n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee p\u0159esunou, pokud se Izrael pust\u00ed do regul\u00e9rn\u00ed v\u00e1lky na jihu Libanonu \u010di se S\u00fdri\u00ed, na \u00fazem\u00ed S\u00fdrie a ji\u017en\u00edho Libanonu sv\u00e9 N\u00e1rodn\u00ed gardy a sp\u0159\u00e1telen\u00e9 pro\u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 \u0161i\u00edtsk\u00e9 milice z\u00a0\u00cdr\u00e1ku.<\/p>\n

A pak u\u017e bychom tu m\u011bli konflikt monument\u00e1ln\u00edch rozm\u011br\u016f a je ot\u00e1zka, co na to Turecko. \u0158e\u0161en\u00ed konfliktu na St\u0159edn\u00edm v\u00fdchod\u011b, podle m\u00e9ho n\u00e1zoru, nemohou p\u0159in\u00e9st jakkoliv dob\u0159e sofistikovan\u011b \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 operace, ale jen a jen m\u00edrov\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed. A prvn\u00edm v\u00fdchodiskem. m\u00edrov\u00e9ho jedn\u00e1n\u00ed je p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\u010cesk\u00e1 diplomacie znemo\u017enila v tomto t\u00fddnu vyd\u00e1n\u00ed spole\u010dn\u00e9 rezoluce Evropsk\u00e9 unie, vyz\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed ke klidu zbran\u00ed mezi Izraelem a hnut\u00edm Hizball\u00e1h. Nev\u00edm, jestli je toto zrovna v\u00a0\u010desk\u00e9m n\u00e1rodn\u00edm z\u00e1jmu. Pokud se konflikt roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed a eskaluje nap\u0159. \u00fatokem na ropn\u00e9 rafinerie \u00cdr\u00e1nu, okam\u017eit\u011b to pozn\u00e1me i my, nebo\u0165 se rychle zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed cena benz\u00ednu a nafty do aut.<\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jsou p\u0159ed prezidentsk\u00fdmi volbami, tedy ve velmi politicky citliv\u00e9m obdob\u00ed. Vyd\u00e1vaj\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 sumy pen\u011bz a mno\u017estv\u00ed zbran\u00ed na Ukrajinu. Je ot\u00e1zkou, zda si mohou dovolit podporovat sou\u010dasn\u011b dva postupn\u011b eskaluj\u00edc\u00ed konflikty. Tedy ten na Ukrajin\u011b i ten na St\u0159edn\u00edm v\u00fdchod\u011b. A pokud by Izrael nebyl se sv\u00fdmi nep\u0159\u00e1teli na sv\u00e9 severn\u00ed hranici hotov rychle \u2013 co\u017e lze d\u016fvodn\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat \u2013 tak by zab\u0159edl do opot\u0159ebov\u00e1vac\u00ed v\u00e1lky. Zkr\u00e1tka, bude to pro USA dal\u0161\u00ed fronta \u010di fronty, kter\u00e9 budou muset pe\u010dliv\u011b sledovat a tak\u00e9 z\u00e1sobovat Izrael zbran\u011bmi, materi\u00e1lem, financemi. A samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, zajistit mu politick\u00e9 kryt\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u00a0Rad\u011b bezpe\u010dnosti OSN.<\/p>\n

Zkr\u00e1tka, sv\u011bt je v\u00a0pohybu a Z\u00e1pad u\u017e nen\u00ed jedin\u00fdm jeho hybatelem\u2026.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Soudn\u00ed lid\u00e9 se zat\u00edm vcelku opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u011b ob\u00e1vaj\u00ed roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed a zejm\u00e9na eskalace vojensk\u00e9ho konfliktu mezi Ruskem…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":54559,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[107,1503,276,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64260"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64260"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64260\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/54559"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}