{"id":64012,"date":"2024-10-11T00:47:07","date_gmt":"2024-10-10T22:47:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=64012"},"modified":"2024-10-11T05:31:41","modified_gmt":"2024-10-11T03:31:41","slug":"andrew-korybko-je-rusko-skutecne-nejvetsi-hrozbou-pro-francii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/10\/11\/andrew-korybko-je-rusko-skutecne-nejvetsi-hrozbou-pro-francii\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Je Rusko skute\u010dn\u011b \u201enejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbou\u201c pro Francii?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Rusk\u00e1 podpora multipol\u00e1rn\u00edch proces\u016f v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Africe zasadila tamn\u00ed francouzsk\u00e9 hegemonii t\u011b\u017ekou r\u00e1nu, na kterou Francie zareagovala veden\u00edm z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti Rusku v Mali p\u0159i strategick\u00e9 ofenz\u00edv\u011b na ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze a ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evrop\u011b.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Francouzsk\u00fd ministr obrany Sebastien Lecornu\u00a0v rozhovoru\u00a0prohl\u00e1sil , \u017ee Rusko je pro jeho zemi \u201enejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbou\u201c krom\u011b teroristick\u00fdch skupin.\u00a0<\/a>Pouk\u00e1zal na jej\u00ed \u201eagresivn\u00ed\u201c akce za posledn\u00ed rok, \u201enejen na na\u0161e z\u00e1jmy v Africe, ale tak\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edmo na na\u0161e ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly\u201c. Lecornu tak\u00e9 obvinil Rusko z \u201eveden\u00ed informa\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lky\u201c a \u201emilitarizace nov\u00fdch prost\u0159ed\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b mo\u0159sk\u00e9ho dna a kyberprostoru\u201c. Realita je takov\u00e1, \u017ee Rusko skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159edstavuje hrozbu pro Francii, ale pouze pro jej\u00ed hegemonii, nikoli pro jej\u00ed legitimn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy.<\/p>\n

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Rusk\u00e1 africk\u00e1 politika, o n\u00ed\u017e se \u010dten\u00e1\u0159i mohou dozv\u011bd\u011bt v\u00edce\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>, se sna\u017e\u00ed urychlit tamn\u00ed multipol\u00e1rn\u00ed procesy. To m\u011blo podobu podpory b\u00fdval\u00fdch francouzsk\u00fdch koloni\u00ed Mali, Burkina Faso a Niger, a to nejen bilater\u00e1ln\u011b, ale tak\u00e9 multilater\u00e1ln\u011b s ohledem na jejich nov\u011b vytvo\u0159enou Sahelskou\u00a0alianci\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0konfederaci\u00a0<\/a>. Jejich vlasteneck\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 veden\u00ed po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s t\u00edm, \u017ee sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed svou p\u0159ehnanou z\u00e1vislost na Francii t\u00edm, \u017ee se bude v\u00edce spol\u00e9hat na Rusko, aby znovu z\u00edskalo co nejv\u00edce ze sv\u00e9 ztracen\u00e9 suverenity.<\/p>\n

V hmatateln\u00fdch term\u00ednech to znamenalo, \u017ee nahradili Francii Ruskem jako preferovan\u00fdm protiteroristick\u00fdm partnerem, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed spekuluj\u00ed, \u017ee bezprost\u0159edn\u00ed protihodnotou je privilegovan\u00fd rusk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k jejich zdroj\u016fm. Kr\u00e1tkodob\u00fdm c\u00edlem je obnoven\u00ed stability, po kter\u00e9m lze s v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jistotou pokra\u010dovat ve st\u0159edn\u011bdob\u00e9m dal\u0161\u00edm odpout\u00e1n\u00ed se od francouzsk\u00e9 \u201esf\u00e9ry vlivu\u201c, v ide\u00e1ln\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b zaveden\u00edm nov\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed m\u011bny, kter\u00e1 nahrad\u00ed frank CFA, kter\u00fd Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017e nad\u00e1le pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1. vyu\u017e\u00edvat k obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed se na jejich \u00fakor.<\/p>\n

Tyto dva v\u00fdvojov\u00e9 trendy ohro\u017euj\u00ed francouzskou hegemonii, proto\u017ee prvn\u00ed br\u00e1n\u00ed jej\u00edmu \u00fasil\u00ed o rozd\u011blen\u00ed a vl\u00e1du t\u011bmto zem\u00edm, zat\u00edmco druh\u00fd je tradi\u010dn\u011b odpov\u011bdn\u00fd za posilov\u00e1n\u00ed jej\u00ed ekonomiky. Celkov\u011b vzato rusk\u00e1 podpora t\u011bchto multipol\u00e1rn\u00edch proces\u016f skute\u010dn\u011b zasadila t\u011b\u017ekou r\u00e1nu francouzsk\u00fdm z\u00e1jm\u016fm, ale op\u011bt pouze jeho hegemonick\u00fdm z\u00e1jm\u016fm, a nikoli legitimn\u00edm. Francie nem\u016f\u017ee uznat zp\u016fsob, jak\u00fdm ji Rusko ohro\u017euje v Africe, proto\u017ee d\u00edky temn\u00e9 pravd\u011b to vypad\u00e1 velmi \u0161patn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Nep\u016fjde v\u0161ak bez boje, a proto vede\u00a0z\u00e1stupnou v\u00e1lku proti Rusku v Mali\u00a0<\/a>spolu s USA a Ukrajinou prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm jejich patron\u00e1tu tuaregsk\u00fdch separatist\u016f a islamistick\u00fdch skupin. Proti Sahelsk\u00e9 alianci\/konfederaci by mohly b\u00fdt otev\u0159eny dal\u0161\u00ed bojov\u00e9 fronty, nap\u0159\u00edklad kdyby se\u00a0francouzsko-americk\u00e9 s\u00edly v Pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed slonoviny\u00a0<\/a>pokusily destabilizovat ji\u017en\u00ed Mali a Burkinu Faso. N\u00e1sil\u00ed d\u017eih\u00e1dist\u016f v posledn\u011b jmenovan\u00e9, kter\u00e9 se ji\u017e bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed kritick\u00fdm rozm\u011br\u016fm, by se s jejich podporou mohlo brzy tak\u00e9 zhor\u0161it.<\/p>\n

Francie nehraje jen obranu, proto\u017ee se tak\u00e9 chyst\u00e1 na strategickou ofenz\u00edvu proti Rusku na ji\u017en\u00edm Kavkaze prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm sv\u00e9ho \u00fasil\u00ed\u00a0urychlit proz\u00e1padn\u00ed pivot Arm\u00e9nie\u00a0<\/a>. V tomto procesu sehr\u00e1la kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli ultranacionalistick\u00e1 arm\u00e9nsk\u00e1 diaspora, kterou host\u00ed. Francie tak\u00e9 prod\u00e1v\u00e1 vojenskou techniku \u200b\u200bArm\u00e9nii, aby umocnila podez\u0159en\u00ed Ruska ohledn\u011b jeho z\u00e1m\u011br\u016f.\u00a0\u00dazk\u00e9 rusko-\u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9 vazby\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0p\u016fsobiv\u011b pragmatick\u00e9 rusko-gruz\u00ednsk\u00e9 pl\u00e1ny\u00a0<\/a>v\u0161ak kontroluj\u00ed pl\u00e1ny Z\u00e1padu.<\/p>\n

Pokud by n\u011bkdy usp\u011bli, p\u0159edstavovali by p\u0159\u00edmou hrozbu pro legitimn\u00ed z\u00e1jmy Ruska vyprovokov\u00e1n\u00edm velk\u00e9ho konfliktu pod\u00e9l jeho ji\u017en\u00ed periferie, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by bylo vm\u011b\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed Francie do ji\u017en\u00edho Kavkazu v objektivn\u00edm smyslu mnohem hroziv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e rusk\u00e1 podpora multipol\u00e1rn\u00edch proces\u016f v Rusku. Z\u00e1padn\u00ed Afrika. Tot\u00e9\u017e plat\u00ed pro dal\u0161\u00ed strategickou ofenz\u00edvu, kterou Francie podnikla proti Rusku pot\u00e9, co ztratila svou \u201esf\u00e9ru vlivu\u201c v Sahelu t\u00edm, \u017ee signalizovala z\u00e1jem\u00a0konven\u010dn\u011b intervenovat na Ukrajin\u011b\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Francouzsk\u00fd prezident Emmanuel Macron, jeho\u017e \u0159\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00fdch chyb bylo analyzov\u00e1no\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>, od t\u00e9 doby svou r\u00e9toriku zm\u00edrnil, ale p\u0159esto takov\u00fd sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 st\u00e1le nevylu\u010duje. D\u016fvodem, pro\u010d je tak nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9 s t\u00edm flirtovat, je to, \u017ee by to mohlo v\u00e9st k vypuknut\u00ed konven\u010dn\u00edho nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed NATO-Rusko na Ukrajin\u011b, kter\u00e9 by mohlo\u00a0nespr\u00e1vn\u00fdm odhadem\u00a0eskalovat do t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.\u00a0<\/a>Francie v\u00ed, jak obrovsk\u00e9 je to, co je v s\u00e1zce, ale st\u00e1le bezohledn\u011b uva\u017euje o tomto postupu jako o pomst\u011b Rusku.<\/p>\n

P\u0159i p\u0159ezkoum\u00e1n\u00ed poznatk\u016f, kter\u00e9 byly dosud sd\u00edleny, rusk\u00e1 podpora multipol\u00e1rn\u00edch proces\u016f v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Africe zasadila t\u011b\u017ekou r\u00e1nu tamn\u00ed francouzsk\u00e9 hegemonii, na kterou Francie reagovala veden\u00edm z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti Rusku v Mali, zat\u00edmco zah\u00e1jila strategickou ofenz\u00edvu na jihu. Kavkaz a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropa. Proto to nen\u00ed Rusko, kdo je \u201enejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed hrozbou\u201c pro Francii, ale Francie je \u201evelkou hrozbou\u201c pro Rusko a sv\u011bt obecn\u011b kv\u016fli zk\u00e1ze, kterou bezohledn\u011b p\u016fsob\u00ed ve t\u0159ech samostatn\u00fdch regionech.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rusk\u00e1 podpora multipol\u00e1rn\u00edch proces\u016f v z\u00e1padn\u00ed Africe zasadila tamn\u00ed francouzsk\u00e9 hegemonii t\u011b\u017ekou r\u00e1nu, na kterou…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":48218,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,130,4866,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64012"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64012"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64012\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/48218"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64012"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64012"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64012"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}