{"id":63626,"date":"2024-10-06T00:32:34","date_gmt":"2024-10-05T22:32:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=63626"},"modified":"2024-10-05T15:35:50","modified_gmt":"2024-10-05T13:35:50","slug":"uriel-araujo-finsky-zaliv-se-muze-stat-mistem-noveho-konfliktu-mezi-nato-a-ruskem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/10\/06\/uriel-araujo-finsky-zaliv-se-muze-stat-mistem-noveho-konfliktu-mezi-nato-a-ruskem\/","title":{"rendered":"Uriel Araujo: Finsk\u00fd z\u00e1liv se m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t m\u00edstem nov\u00e9ho konfliktu mezi NATO a Ruskem"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Finsko a Estonsko, dv\u011b zem\u011b NATO, ned\u00e1vno podepsaly dohodu o\u00a0<\/span>bezpe\u010dnosti Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Nav\u00edc, a co je d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ozn\u00e1mili sv\u016fj z\u00e1m\u011br zablokovat Finsk\u00fd z\u00e1liv uzav\u0159en\u00edm pro ruskou lodn\u00ed dopravu. Rusk\u00e9 ministerstvo zahrani\u010d\u00ed reagovalo prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00edm, \u017ee Rusko bude ka\u017edou takovou akci pova\u017eovat za poru\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00edho pr\u00e1va. Stanoven\u00ed jejich hranic (t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00edch se p\u0159ilehl\u00fdch z\u00f3n Finsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu) by samoz\u0159ejm\u011b pat\u0159ilo do jejich suver\u00e9nn\u00edch pr\u00e1v. Omezen\u00ed n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed dopravy zp\u016fsobem, jak\u00fdm zam\u00fd\u0161lej\u00ed, v\u0161ak nelze popsat jinak ne\u017e poru\u0161en\u00edm \u00damluvy OSN o mo\u0159sk\u00e9m pr\u00e1vu z roku 1982 \u2013 s potenci\u00e1ln\u00edmi v\u00e1\u017en\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Finsk\u00fd z\u00e1liv sah\u00e1 a\u017e do Petrohradu v Rusku na v\u00fdchod. Jeho ji\u017en\u00ed pob\u0159e\u017e\u00ed obsahuje s\u00ed\u0165 p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f a \u200b\u200bLeningradskou jadernou elektr\u00e1rnu. P\u0159\u00edstav Primorsk ve v\u00fdchodn\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti Finsk\u00e9ho z\u00e1livu je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd nap\u0159\u00edklad pro ropn\u00e9 produkty – existuje n\u011bkolik dal\u0161\u00edch. Bylo by t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 zveli\u010dovat v\u00fdznam z\u00e1livu pro Rusko. Za prv\u00e9, stavba plynovodu\u00a0<\/span>Nord Stream<\/span><\/a>\u00a0za\u010dala ve finsk\u00fdch vod\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n

S t\u00edm, jak poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1<\/a>\u00a0Pavel Klachkov (rusk\u00fd politolog a \u0159editel\u00a0<\/span>Finan\u010dn\u00ed univerzity<\/span><\/a>\u00a0)\u00a0, vojensk\u00e1 p\u0159\u00edtomnost NATO\u00a0roste<\/a>\u00a0v Pobalt\u00ed, co\u017e je strategick\u00e1 oblast i pro Rusko. V dubnu nap\u0159\u00edklad za\u010dalo spole\u010dn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 cvi\u010den\u00ed NATO v\u00a0Litv\u011b.<\/a>\u00a0Tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee vstup Finska do Aliance dal \u201enov\u00fd impuls severn\u00edmu sm\u011bru, kde se vytv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed podm\u00ednky pro potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed konflikt mezi NATO a Ruskem\u201c. Atlantick\u00e1 aliance tak\u00e9 za\u010dala z\u0159izovat velitelstv\u00ed v Mikkeli, finsk\u00e9m m\u011bst\u011b, kter\u00e9 le\u017e\u00ed velmi bl\u00edzko rusk\u00fdch hranic.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a0A dod\u00e1v\u00e1: \u201eOd vstupu Finska do Severoatlantick\u00e9 aliance se rychle za\u010dlenilo do jej\u00ed opera\u010dn\u00ed struktury a aktivn\u011b se \u00fa\u010dastn\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed. Tyto man\u00e9vry nejsou pouhou demonstrac\u00ed s\u00edly \u2013 jsou n\u00e1cvikem mo\u017en\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u016f vojensk\u00e9ho konfliktu s Ruskem. Zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pozoruhodn\u00e9 jsou aktivn\u00ed operace NATO na poloostrov\u011b Kola a ve Finsk\u00e9m z\u00e1livu, ob\u011b v t\u011bsn\u00e9 bl\u00edzkosti rusk\u00fdch hranic.<\/span><\/p>\n

Cvi\u010den\u00ed NATO nav\u00edc nacvi\u010dovalo\u00a0<\/span>blok\u00e1du<\/span><\/a>\u00a0kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch tras pro Rusko \u2013 jak propast Suwalki, tak Finsk\u00fd z\u00e1liv jsou kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 pro z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed severoz\u00e1padn\u00edch oblast\u00ed Ruska. Toto je \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed kontext ned\u00e1vn\u00e9ho finsko-estonsk\u00e9ho ozn\u00e1men\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Po\u00a0<\/span>summitu NATO v Madridu v<\/span><\/a>\u00a0roce 2022 Biden skv\u011ble prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin usiluje o \u201efinlandizaci Evropy\u201c, ale m\u00edsto toho by dos\u00e1hl \u201eNATOizace\u201c tohoto kontinentu. S p\u0159istoupen\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>\u0160v\u00e9dska<\/span><\/a>\u00a0a Finska se \u00fazemn\u00ed p\u016fsobnost Atlantick\u00e9 aliance roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159ila a\u017e k rusk\u00e9mu v\u00fdchodn\u00edmu arktick\u00e9mu k\u0159\u00eddlu, \u010d\u00edm\u017e se Rusko stalo jedinou zem\u00ed v Arktid\u011b, kter\u00e1 nen\u00ed \u010dlenem NATO. Mnoho z\u00e1padn\u00edch novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f a koment\u00e1tor\u016f by rychle odm\u00edtlo v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bnou anal\u00fdzu rusk\u00e9ho politologa o roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO jako \u201eruskou propagandu\u201c. Kdy\u017e se v\u0161ak trochu vr\u00e1t\u00edme v \u010dase, v prosinci 2019 Mark Cancian (odborn\u00edk na obranu z Centra pro strategick\u00e1 a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed studia)\u00a0<\/span>napsal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee \u201eje \u010das zastavit expanzi NATO. Tehdy komentoval americkou\u00a0<\/span>podporu \u010dlenstv\u00ed Severn\u00ed Makedonie<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v alianci NATO a napsal, \u017ee \u201ev\u011bt\u0161\u00ed NATO zatahuje Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty do obskurn\u00edch region\u00e1ln\u00edch spor\u016f, zavazuje je br\u00e1nit exponovan\u00e9 zem\u011b a zbyte\u010dn\u011b si znep\u0159\u00e1tel\u00ed Rusy\u201c. Hlasy jako hlas Canciana nebo \u2013 abychom jmenovali slavn\u011bj\u0161\u00edho z\u00e1padn\u00edho politologa \u2013 hlas Johna Mearsheimera, byli ameri\u010dt\u00ed tv\u016frci politik v\u011bt\u0161inou ignorov\u00e1ni. To je ne\u0161\u0165astn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

V listopadu 2020 jsem\u00a0<\/span>napsal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee za p\u0159edsednictv\u00ed Joea Bidena bude Washington prosazovat politiku boje proti Rusku a obkl\u00ed\u010den\u00ed, co\u017e p\u0159inese zm\u011bny nejen ve vztaz\u00edch USA na Ukrajinu a v\u00fdchodn\u00ed Evropu, ale do cel\u00e9 Evropy. V t\u00e9 dob\u011b rostlo nap\u011bt\u00ed ve v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b \u2013 ne-li ve v\u0161ech \u2013 zem\u00edch soused\u00edc\u00edch s Ruskem. Za prv\u00e9, v z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2020 se jednotky NATO z\u00fa\u010dastnily provokativn\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch cvi\u010den\u00ed v Estonsku pobl\u00ed\u017e rusk\u00fdch hranic.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u0159\u00edve t\u00e9ho\u017e roku Washington vyslal do Evropy ne m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e 20 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f, aby se z\u00fa\u010dastnili cvi\u010den\u00ed NATO \u201eDefender Europe 20\u201c, do kter\u00e9ho se zapojilo 18 zem\u00ed z 10 evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b Polska, Loty\u0161ska, Litvy, Estonska a Gruzie (v\u0161echny sd\u00edlej\u00ed hranice s Ruskou federac\u00ed). Bylo\u00a0<\/span>pops\u00e1no<\/span><\/a>\u00a0jako \u201enejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vojensk\u00e9 cvi\u010den\u00ed na kontinentu od doby p\u0159ed koncem studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky\u201c. Od roku 2020 v\u011bci zna\u010dn\u011b zes\u00edlily \u2013 s obrovsk\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky pro kontinent a cel\u00fd sv\u011bt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu v\u0161emu je skute\u010dn\u011b zcela nemo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eet rusk\u00e9 obavy a st\u00ed\u017enosti na roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed NATO (nebo jen na vztahy Ukrajiny s Alianci) jako nesmysl nebo pouhou r\u00e9toriku. Z rusk\u00e9 perspektivy jsou to samoz\u0159ejm\u011b opr\u00e1vn\u011bn\u00e9 obavy t\u00fdkaj\u00edc\u00ed se jeho n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti a \u017eivotn\u00edch z\u00e1jm\u016f. Chu\u0165 Atlantsk\u00e9 aliance po r\u016fstu minim\u00e1ln\u011b od roku 1999, s poru\u0161en\u00edm\u00a0<\/span>slibu z roku 1990<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, byla ve skute\u010dnosti jednou z\u00a0<\/span>hlavn\u00edch p\u0159\u00ed\u010din<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00edho\u00a0<\/span>konfliktu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0na Ukrajin\u011b od roku 2014. Dalo by se argumentovat, \u017ee hlavn\u00ed c\u00edle Moskvy (kulminuj\u00edc\u00ed v roce 2022 kampa\u0148) byly v podstat\u011b reakc\u00ed na to.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajina je samoz\u0159ejm\u011b ohniskem nap\u011bt\u00ed z mnoha historick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f. Nap\u011bt\u00ed mezi NATO a Ruskem v\u0161ak daleko p\u0159esahuje ukrajinskou ot\u00e1zku. Na severn\u00edm k\u0159\u00eddle Aliance je skute\u010dn\u011b velk\u00fd prostor pro eskalaci takov\u00fdch t\u0159enic. A zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad veden\u00fd Spojen\u00fdmi st\u00e1ty je odhodl\u00e1n d\u011blat p\u0159esn\u011b to \u2013 co\u017e op\u011bt d\u011bl\u00e1 sv\u011bt m\u00e9n\u011b bezpe\u010dn\u00fdm m\u00edstem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uriel Araujo, PhD<\/a>, antropologick\u00fd v\u00fdzkumn\u00edk se zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed a etnick\u00e9 konflikty<\/em><\/p>\n

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Finsko a Estonsko, dv\u011b zem\u011b NATO, ned\u00e1vno podepsaly dohodu o\u00a0bezpe\u010dnosti Baltsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e\u00a0. Nav\u00edc, a co…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":63627,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,4343,39,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63626"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63626"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63626\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/63627"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63626"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63626"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63626"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}