{"id":63610,"date":"2024-10-05T00:39:49","date_gmt":"2024-10-04T22:39:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=63610"},"modified":"2024-10-04T16:27:13","modified_gmt":"2024-10-04T14:27:13","slug":"jiri-paroubek-lzive-argumenty-vlady-k-duchodum","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/10\/05\/jiri-paroubek-lzive-argumenty-vlady-k-duchodum\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek: L\u017eiv\u00e9 argumenty vl\u00e1dy k d\u016fchod\u016fm"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Mohl bych napsat, tak jako v\u011bt\u0161ina mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed, \u017ee se nyn\u00ed ve sn\u011bmovn\u011b jedn\u00e1 od d\u016fchodov\u00e9 reformn\u011b. Ale tak to nen\u00ed. Kdy\u017e budu cht\u00edt b\u00fdt hodn\u011b korektn\u00ed, budu hovo\u0159it o parametrick\u00fdch zm\u011bn\u00e1ch d\u016fchodov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu. Nic v\u00edc. Vl\u00e1dn\u00ed \u010dinitel\u00e9 a propagandist\u00e9 penzijn\u00edch fond\u016f i provl\u00e1dn\u00ed ekonomov\u00e9 oblbuj\u00ed ve\u0159ejnost, \u017ee v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch desetilet\u00edch pr\u00fd bude m\u00e1lo lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed budou pracovat v pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00e9m syst\u00e9mu financov\u00e1n\u00ed d\u016fchod\u016f na budouc\u00ed d\u016fchodce. To je zjevn\u00e1 le\u017e.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Tak za prv\u00e9: \u010cesk\u00e1 ekonomika \u010dasto proti v\u016fli kapit\u00e1n\u016f \u010desk\u00e9ho pr\u016fmyslu sm\u011b\u0159uje pomalu, ale jist\u011b k\u00a0modernizaci. To ve sv\u00fdch d\u016fsledc\u00edch znamen\u00e1 masivn\u00ed uplatn\u011bn\u00ed robotizace a automatizace v\u00fdroby. A stejn\u011b tak to znamen\u00e1 postupn\u00e9 zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00ed um\u011bl\u00e9 inteligence a digitalizace (samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee ne t\u00e9 Barto\u0161ovsk\u00e9). Prost\u011b bude pot\u0159eba m\u00e9n\u011b pracovn\u00edk\u016f, jak v\u00a0administrativ\u011b, tak ve v\u00fdrobn\u00edch odv\u011btv\u00edch a ve slu\u017eb\u00e1ch a v\u00fdkon ekonomiky p\u0159esto poroste. Vl\u00e1da by m\u011bla m\u00edt p\u0159ipraveny rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 a velmi variabiln\u00ed programy rekvalifikac\u00ed pracovn\u00edk\u016f.<\/p>\n

V\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch generac\u00edch jen m\u00e1lo kdo vydr\u017e\u00ed po des\u00edtky let v jedin\u00e9 profesi. A konec konc\u016f u\u017e i ministr pr\u00e1ce Jure\u010dka hovo\u0159il o tom, \u017ee v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch deseti letech se uvoln\u00ed 800\u00a0000 pracovn\u00edch m\u00edst. Te\u010f p\u016fjde o to, t\u011bmto uvoln\u011bn\u00fdm pracovn\u00edm sil\u00e1m d\u00e1t novou vizi jejich pracovn\u00ed existence, a to je jednozna\u010dn\u011b v\u011bc\u00ed vl\u00e1dy. Krom\u011b toho, zejm\u00e9na v\u00a0posledn\u00edch letech se zv\u00fd\u0161ily po\u010dty ob\u010dan\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed ode\u0161li do p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9ho d\u016fchodu.<\/p>\n

Za druh\u00e9: Tak\u017ee v\u00a0p\u0159ed\u010dasn\u00e9m d\u016fchodu je nyn\u00ed kolem 750 tis\u00edc osob. \u0158ada z\u00a0t\u011bchto lid\u00ed, potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch pracovn\u00edk\u016f, by jist\u011b r\u00e1da pracovala. Ale st\u00e1t mus\u00ed pro to vytvo\u0159it podm\u00ednky, aby to pro n\u011b bylo zaj\u00edmav\u00e9. Pro\u010d by tito lid\u00e9 m\u011bli platit nap\u0159. stejn\u00e9 odvody soci\u00e1ln\u00edho zabezpe\u010den\u00ed, anebo stejn\u00e9 dan\u011b jako tehdy, kdy\u017e pracovali p\u0159ed d\u016fchodem. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee i \u010d\u00e1st t\u011bchto potenci\u00e1ln\u00edch pracovn\u00edch sil bude pot\u0159ebovat rekvalifikaci, i na to by st\u00e1t m\u011bl myslet c\u00edlen\u00fdmi programy, kter\u00e9 budou d\u00e1vat smysl.<\/p>\n

A za t\u0159et\u00ed: Ned\u00e1vno byl zve\u0159ejn\u011bn v\u00fdsledek pr\u016fzkumu mezi Ukrajinci, kte\u0159\u00ed se v\u00a0posledn\u00edch dvou a p\u016fl letech usadili na na\u0161em \u00fazem\u00ed. Je jich z\u0159ejm\u011b 330 tis\u00edc, ale 250 tis\u00edc z\u00a0nich chce u n\u00e1s z\u016fstat natrvalo. Tito lid\u00e9 maj\u00ed p\u0159ed sebou dlouhou pracovn\u00ed perspektivu, kdy budou p\u0159isp\u00edvat na funk\u010dnost pr\u016fb\u011b\u017en\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu d\u016fchodov\u00e9ho financov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Za \u010dtvrt\u00e9: Stejn\u011b tak je mo\u017en\u00e9, jako u pracuj\u00edc\u00edch d\u016fchodc\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed by mohli platit jen nap\u0159. desetinu dne\u0161n\u00edch dan\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b soci\u00e1ln\u00edho poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed (a tot\u00e9\u017e by se t\u00fdkalo i jejich zam\u011bstnavatel\u016f pokud jde o soci\u00e1ln\u00ed i zdravotn\u00ed poji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed). A \u00fapln\u011b stejn\u00fd princip by m\u011bl b\u00fdt zaveden pro v\u0161echny studenty do 26 let. Najednou by bylo velmi v\u00fdhodn\u00e9 zam\u011bstn\u00e1vat d\u016fchodce i studenty, a to jak pro n\u011b, tak i pro zam\u011bstnavatele.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed zdroje pracovn\u00edch sil v\u00a0rozsahu statis\u00edc\u016f nov\u00fdch \u010di staronov\u00fdch pracovn\u00edk\u016f zde jsou. Vl\u00e1da tyto zdroje zast\u00edr\u00e1 a zakr\u00fdv\u00e1 a bohu\u017eel parlamentn\u00ed opozice hovo\u0159\u00ed \u010dasto sp\u00ed\u0161e o mor\u00e1ln\u00ed zavr\u017een\u00edhodnosti cel\u00e9ho postupu vl\u00e1dy v\u00a0oblasti budouc\u00ed organizace d\u016fchod\u016f ne\u017eli o zjevn\u00fdch faktech.<\/p>\n

Za p\u00e1t\u00e9: Nechci fantaz\u00edrovat, ale u\u017e prost\u00e1 zm\u011bna vl\u00e1dy za rok a zejm\u00e9na zm\u011bna bytov\u00e9 politiky, s\u00a0d\u016frazem na podporu v\u00fdstavby levn\u00fdch n\u00e1jemn\u00edch byt\u016f, m\u016f\u017ee podpo\u0159it, aby se kone\u010dn\u011b rodilo, po Fialovsk\u00e9m fat\u00e1ln\u00edm propadu porodnosti, v\u00edce \u010desk\u00fdch d\u011bt\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 vl\u00e1da z\u00e1sadn\u00edch zm\u011bn v\u00a0p\u0159\u00edstupu k\u00a0dostupnosti bydlen\u00ed prost\u011b schopn\u00e1 nen\u00ed. Aby si mlad\u00ed lid\u00e9 mohli zalo\u017eit rodinu, pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed n\u011bkde bydlet a nejl\u00e9pe ve vlastn\u00edm \u010di alespo\u0148 pronajat\u00e9m byt\u011b.<\/p>\n

T\u00edm hlavn\u00edm live-motivem cel\u00e9 \u201ereformy“ v\u00a0re\u017eii vl\u00e1dy P. Fialy je, \u017ee se bude postupn\u011b prodlu\u017eovat rok od roku doba odchodu do d\u016fchodu tak, aby bylo postupn\u011b dosa\u017eeno hranice 67 let. Argumentem je, \u017ee \u017eijeme dlouho a c\u00edlem m\u00e1 b\u00fdt, abychom si v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru neu\u017e\u00edvali d\u016fchodu v\u00a0d\u00e9lce v\u00edce ne\u017e 21 let. \u00d3, jak by to bylo p\u011bkn\u00e9 u\u017e\u00edvat si d\u016fchodu 21 let. Nahl\u00e9dl jsem do statistik a zjistil jsem, \u017ee st\u0159edn\u00ed doba do\u017eit\u00ed je v\u00a0\u010cesku u mu\u017e\u016f 76 let a u \u017een 82 let.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed v\u011bc\u00ed, kter\u00e1 ka\u017ed\u00e9ho okam\u017eit\u011b napadne, je nejasnost v\u00a0jednoduch\u00fdch po\u010dtech. Kdy\u017e p\u016fjdu do d\u016fchodu v\u00a067 letech, m\u011bl bych se v\u00a0pr\u016fm\u011bru do\u017e\u00edt 88 let, abych si u\u017eil on\u011bch vl\u00e1dou kalkulovan\u00fdch 21 let. P\u0159itom je daleko pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee jako mu\u017e odejdu z\u00a0tohoto sv\u011bta n\u011bkdy v\u00a076 letech a \u017ee tedy sv\u016fj d\u016fchod budu u\u017e\u00edvat jen 9 let. \u017deny na tom jsou o n\u011bco l\u00e9pe, ty maj\u00ed \u0161anci u\u017e\u00edvat d\u016fchodu 15 let. A\u0165 po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1m jak po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1m 21 let, se kter\u00fdmi kalkuluj\u00ed \u201eodborn\u00edci\u201c ministerstva pr\u00e1ce a jimi ovlivn\u011bn\u00e1 vl\u00e1da \u2013 nevid\u00edm. A to nechci ani hovo\u0159it o tom, \u017ee \u017eeny si budou u\u017e\u00edvat o 6 let d\u00e9le d\u016fchodu ne\u017eli mu\u017ei. To je probl\u00e9m celkem vedlej\u0161\u00ed, i kdy\u017e na druh\u00e9 stran\u011b odch\u00e1zej\u00ed do d\u016fchodu s\u00a0ni\u017e\u0161\u00edmi platy, tedy s\u00a0ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdpo\u010dtovou z\u00e1kladnou pro propo\u010det d\u016fchodu ne\u017eli mu\u017ei.<\/p>\n

On\u011bch 21 let je tedy nepoda\u0159en\u00fd prognostick\u00fd konstrukt, kter\u00fd naprosto nem\u00e1 oporu v\u00a0dne\u0161n\u00ed realit\u011b. M\u00edsto blouzn\u011bn\u00ed, kolik se \u00fadajn\u011b do\u017eijeme v\u00a0roce 2050, by se m\u011bla \u0159e\u0161it dne\u0161n\u00ed situace. Je smutn\u00fd pohled na \u010dinitele vl\u00e1dn\u00ed koalice v televizn\u00edch debat\u00e1ch. Ti fantaz\u00edruj\u00ed o tom, jak\u00e9 \u017ee dluhy bude m\u00edt d\u016fchodov\u00fd syst\u00e9m kolem roku 2030, pokud se s\u00a0t\u00edm n\u011bco neud\u011bl\u00e1. Hauz\u00edruj\u00ed sta miliardami korun deficitu. Z\u00a0d\u016fvod\u016f, kter\u00e9 jsem v\u00fd\u0161e uvedl v\u00a0bod\u011b 1-5 se toho neob\u00e1v\u00e1m.<\/p>\n

Krom\u011b toho, je to v\u017edy ot\u00e1zka vl\u00e1dn\u00edch priorit. Na v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 \u00fa\u010dely a na v\u00fddaje ministerstva obrany chce vl\u00e1da v\u00a0p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce d\u00e1t\u00a0cca 160 miliard korun, tedy cca 2% hrub\u00e9ho HDP. A u\u017e dnes blouzn\u00edc\u00ed p\u0159edstavitel\u00e9 \u010desk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy a tak\u00e9 ministryn\u011b obrany hovo\u0159\u00ed o tom, \u017ee ta 2% HDP nebudou sta\u010dit. Jejich velk\u00fdm vzorem je Polsko, kter\u00e9 na obranu d\u00e1v\u00e1 4% sv\u00e9ho HDP. To by v\u00a0\u010desk\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch znamenalo p\u0159i 3% z\u00a0HDP cca 240 miliard a p\u0159i 4% 320 miliard korun.<\/p>\n

Je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee v\u00a0tom p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b je pot\u0159eba vz\u00edt u \u00fast v\u00a0prvn\u00ed \u0159ad\u011b ty, kte\u0159\u00ed podle vl\u00e1dn\u00edch \u010dinitel\u016f a provl\u00e1dn\u00edch ekonom\u016f u\u017e znamenaj\u00ed pro st\u00e1t jenom z\u00e1t\u011b\u017e a to jsou d\u016fchodci. P\u0159i tureck\u00e9m hospoda\u0159en\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, jej\u00ed\u017e ka\u017edoro\u010dn\u00ed deficity st\u00e1tn\u00edho rozpo\u010dtu dosahuj\u00ed a budou dosahovat cca \u010dtvrt bilionu korun, lze po\u010d\u00edtat tak\u00e9 s\u00a0trval\u00fdch r\u016fstem v\u00fddaj\u016f st\u00e1tu na obsluhu st\u00e1tn\u00edho dluhu.<\/p>\n

A to nemluv\u00edm o tom, \u017ee pokud ratingov\u00e9 agentury dojdou k\u00a0n\u00e1zoru, \u017ee sn\u00ed\u017e\u00ed rating \u010cesk\u00e9 republiky, budeme platit z\u00a0titulu r\u016fstu \u00farokov\u00fdch m\u011br vypl\u00e1cen\u00fdch ze st\u00e1tn\u00edch cenn\u00fdch pap\u00edr\u016f \u0159\u00e1dov\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1stky. V\u00a0souhrnu t\u0159eba o des\u00edtky miliard korun v\u00edce ne\u017e dnes.<\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Paroubek<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mohl bych napsat, tak jako v\u011bt\u0161ina mainstreamov\u00fdch m\u00e9di\u00ed, \u017ee se nyn\u00ed ve sn\u011bmovn\u011b jedn\u00e1 od…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":37170,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[998,1503,851,99],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63610"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63610"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63610\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/37170"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63610"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63610"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63610"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}