{"id":63004,"date":"2024-09-28T00:31:26","date_gmt":"2024-09-27T22:31:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=63004"},"modified":"2024-09-27T13:58:28","modified_gmt":"2024-09-27T11:58:28","slug":"americke-letectvo-se-pripravuje-na-jaderny-souboj-nad-tchaj-wanem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/09\/28\/americke-letectvo-se-pripravuje-na-jaderny-souboj-nad-tchaj-wanem\/","title":{"rendered":"Americk\u00e9 letectvo se p\u0159ipravuje na jadern\u00fd souboj nad Tchaj-wanem"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P\u0159esto se USA spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na strategie z dob studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e9 jsou st\u00e1le v\u00edce nedostate\u010dn\u00e9 k tomu, aby zvl\u00e1dly a \u010delily vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edmu se jadern\u00e9mu postoji \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rychle se roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd arzen\u00e1l a vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se strategie p\u0159etv\u00e1\u0159ej\u00ed glob\u00e1ln\u00ed jadernou rovnov\u00e1hu a podn\u011bcuj\u00ed obavy z mo\u017en\u00e9ho z\u00fa\u010dtov\u00e1n\u00ed nad Tchaj-wanem, kdy\u017e se USA p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed na cvi\u010den\u00ed jadern\u00e9 p\u0159ipravenosti.<\/span><\/p>\n

The War Zone\u00a0<\/span>ozn\u00e1mil<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee americk\u00fd gener\u00e1lporu\u010d\u00edk Andrew Gebara ozn\u00e1mil na konferenci Air & Space Forces Association pobl\u00ed\u017e Washingtonu, DC, \u017ee americk\u00e9 letectvo pl\u00e1nuje stoln\u00ed cvi\u010den\u00ed, aby otestovalo p\u0159ipravenost na r\u016fzn\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e k vyhodnocen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

The War Zone zmi\u0148uje, \u017ee cvi\u010den\u00ed napl\u00e1novan\u00e9 na konec tohoto m\u011bs\u00edce m\u00e1 za c\u00edl p\u0159ipravit se na mo\u017en\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed s n\u00edzkou \u00fa\u010dinnost\u00ed v Evrop\u011b, jadern\u00e9 demonstrace \u010di testy a adaptaci na region\u00e1ln\u00ed konflikty s jadern\u00fdmi mocnostmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

The War Zone citoval Gebaru, \u017ee americk\u00e9 letectvo pot\u0159ebuje \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdcvik na v\u0161ech \u00farovn\u00edch, kter\u00fd p\u0159esahuje tradi\u010dn\u00ed strategickou \u00farove\u0148 a zahrnuje tak\u00e9 taktick\u00e1 hlediska.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee tento posun odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se povahu jadern\u00e9 hrozby, kter\u00e1 nyn\u00ed zahrnuje \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed \u0161k\u00e1lu akt\u00e9r\u016f a metod doru\u010den\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b taktick\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed krat\u0161\u00edho dosahu. Je zm\u00edn\u011bno, \u017ee v\u00fdsledky cvi\u010den\u00ed budou prezentov\u00e1ny na nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed konferenci velitel\u016f CORONA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco se americk\u00e9 letectvo sna\u017e\u00ed zlep\u0161it svou p\u0159ipravenost na taktick\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, rozv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se jadern\u00e1 strategie \u010c\u00edny odr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed jej\u00ed snahu o bezpe\u010dn\u00e9 odstra\u0161en\u00ed a glob\u00e1ln\u00ed presti\u017e.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve\u00a0<\/span>zpr\u00e1v\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0China Strategic Perspectives z \u010dervence 2023 David Logan a Phillip Saunders poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee o jadern\u00e9 strategii \u010c\u00edny se dlouho diskutovalo, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e se objevilo \u0161est hlavn\u00edch model\u016f, kter\u00e9 vysv\u011btluj\u00ed v\u00fdvoj jej\u00edch jadern\u00fdch sil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle Logana a Saunderse mezi nejv\u00fdrazn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed z t\u011bchto model\u016f pat\u0159\u00ed modely bezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho druh\u00e9ho \u00faderu a jadern\u00e9ho \u0161t\u00edtu, kter\u00e9 nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna chce udr\u017eet jadernou s\u00edlu p\u0159e\u017e\u00edtelnou proti schopnostem protivn\u00edka, zejm\u00e9na t\u011bm ze Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee model druh\u00e9ho \u00faderu se zam\u011b\u0159uje na odvr\u00e1cen\u00ed rozs\u00e1hl\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f, zat\u00edmco model jadern\u00e9ho \u0161t\u00edtu roz\u0161i\u0159uje toto odstra\u0161en\u00ed na konven\u010dn\u00ed hrozby, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v mo\u017en\u00e9m konfliktu o Tchaj-wan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o model statusu velmoci, Logan a Saunders nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee rostouc\u00ed jadern\u00e9 kapacity \u010c\u00edny slou\u017e\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00edmu c\u00edli zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed n\u00e1rodn\u00ed presti\u017ee.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento model p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna p\u0159ekro\u010d\u00ed sv\u00e9 sou\u010dasn\u00e9 \u201e\u0161t\u00edhl\u00e9 a \u00fa\u010dinn\u00e9\u201c odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a bude se sna\u017eit konkurovat USA a Rusku v jadern\u00fdch kapacit\u00e1ch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Logan a Saunders poukazuj\u00ed na dal\u0161\u00ed modely, jako je odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed v divadle a jadern\u00e1 p\u0159evaha, kter\u00e9 nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee se \u010c\u00edna p\u0159ipravuje na region\u00e1ln\u00ed jadern\u00e9 konflikty nebo usiluje o jadernou nadvl\u00e1du, a\u010dkoli d\u016fkazy pro tyto modely jsou omezen\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, Logan a Saunders p\u0159ipisuj\u00ed model byrokratick\u00e9 politiky my\u0161lence, \u017ee jadern\u00fd v\u00fdvoj je zp\u016fsoben vnit\u0159n\u00ed sout\u011b\u017e\u00ed mezi \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi a politick\u00fdmi institucemi, ale tento model m\u00e1 tak\u00e9 slabou podporu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd rozvoj jadern\u00fdch sil se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt poh\u00e1n\u011bn kombinac\u00ed bezpe\u010dn\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a rostouc\u00ed touhy po glob\u00e1ln\u00ed presti\u017ei, s men\u0161\u00edm zam\u011b\u0159en\u00edm na schopnosti jadern\u00e9ho boje.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoj \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 strategie, rychl\u00e9 roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed jej\u00edho arzen\u00e1lu a moderniza\u010dn\u00ed \u00fasil\u00ed odr\u00e1\u017eej\u00ed jasnou touhu pos\u00edlit strategick\u00e9 schopnosti zem\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00a0<\/span>\u010dl\u00e1nku<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pro Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists z ledna 2024 Hans Kristensen a dal\u0161\u00ed auto\u0159i odhaduj\u00ed, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna m\u00e1 asi 500 jadern\u00fdch hlavic.\u00a0Podle jejich progn\u00f3z by tento po\u010det mohl do roku 2030 vzr\u016fst na 1 000 a do roku 2035 na 1 500.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kristensen a dal\u0161\u00ed poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna\u00a0<\/span>vyv\u00edj\u00ed nov\u00e1 raketov\u00e1 sila<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, pokro\u010dil\u00e9 mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely (ICBM) a p\u0159ezbrojuje\u00a0<\/span>sv\u00e9 ponorky typu 094 raketami JL-3<\/span><\/a>\u00a0. Zmi\u0148uj\u00ed tak\u00e9, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna p\u0159id\u011blila sv\u00fdm bombard\u00e9r\u016fm jadernou misi a\u00a0<\/span>vyv\u00edj\u00ed balistickou raketu odpalovanou ze vzduchu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zmi\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee zpr\u00e1va\u00a0americk\u00e9ho ministerstva obrany (DOD)\u00a0<\/span>China Military Power Report 2023 je v souladu s t\u011bmito zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00edmi a zd\u016fraz\u0148uje potenci\u00e1l \u010c\u00edny rozm\u00edstit tyto hlavice ve vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed p\u0159ipravenosti.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Auto\u0159i tak\u00e9 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 expanze sv\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu je vedena jej\u00edm strategick\u00fdm c\u00edlem zlep\u0161it jej\u00ed odstra\u0161ovac\u00ed schopnost a zajistit n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kristensen a dal\u0161\u00ed zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159esn\u00e9 posouzen\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed je obt\u00ed\u017en\u00e9 kv\u016fli ofici\u00e1ln\u00ed nepr\u016fhlednosti a spol\u00e9h\u00e1n\u00ed se na kombinaci otev\u0159en\u00fdch zdroj\u016f, satelitn\u00ed sn\u00edmky a expertn\u00ed anal\u00fdzy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jasn\u00e9 v\u0161ak je, \u017ee rychl\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 expanze \u010c\u00edny zvy\u0161uje riziko jadern\u00e9ho n\u00e1tlaku v konfliktu o Tchaj-wan, na kter\u00fd by Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohly potenci\u00e1ln\u011b adekv\u00e1tn\u011b reagovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve\u00a0<\/span>zpr\u00e1v\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Atlantic Council ze z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2023 Matthew Kroenig diskutuje o mo\u017en\u00fdch sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u00edch pro z\u00e1m\u011brn\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed v americko-\u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9m konfliktu na Tchaj-wanu. Kroenig zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee ob\u011b strany by mohly zv\u00e1\u017eit jadernou eskalaci v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b vysoce rizikov\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro \u010c\u00ednu by pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed mohlo m\u00edt r\u016fzn\u00e9 formy: jako sign\u00e1l, jako demonstrace odhodl\u00e1n\u00ed prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm testu nebo jako \u00fatok na americk\u00e9 s\u00edly nebo samotn\u00fd Tchaj-wan s c\u00edlem vynutit si rychl\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Stejn\u011b tak by Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohly zv\u00e1\u017eit omezen\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 \u00fadery, aby odradily \u010d\u00ednskou invazi nebo reagovaly na \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle Kroeniga, zat\u00edmco ob\u011b strany jsou odhodl\u00e1ny vyhnout se \u00fapln\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bn\u011b, ob\u011b strany \u010del\u00ed v\u00fdzv\u011b kontroly eskalace, jakmile budou pou\u017eity jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b. Varuje, \u017ee chybn\u00e1 kalkulace obou stran by mohla vyvolat rozs\u00e1hlou jadernou v\u00fdm\u011bnu s dalekos\u00e1hl\u00fdmi glob\u00e1ln\u00edmi d\u016fsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee jak se \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l roz\u0161i\u0159uje, mus\u00ed Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty p\u0159ipravit konven\u010dn\u00ed i jadern\u00e9 reakce, v\u010detn\u011b pos\u00edlen\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed protiraketov\u00e9 obrany a p\u0159ehodnocen\u00ed velikosti a rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed sv\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch sil, aby odradily \u010d\u00ednskou agresi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na rozd\u00edl od rychle se roz\u0161i\u0159uj\u00edc\u00edch jadern\u00fdch kapacit \u010c\u00edny jsou nedostatky\u00a0<\/span>americk\u00fdch strategi\u00ed z dob studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky<\/span><\/a>\u00a0st\u00e1le zjevn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, tak\u017ee USA nejsou dostate\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ipraveny zvl\u00e1dat slo\u017eit\u00e1 rizika jadern\u00e9 eskalace v mo\u017en\u00e9m konfliktu o Tchaj-wan.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ve\u00a0<\/span>zpr\u00e1v\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0ze srpna 2024 pro Centrum pro novou americkou bezpe\u010dnost (CNAS) Andrew Metrick a dal\u0161\u00ed auto\u0159i zd\u016fraz\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee USA nejsou schopny zvl\u00e1dnout rizika jadern\u00e9 eskalace s \u010c\u00ednou, zejm\u00e9na v vlekl\u00e9m konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Auto\u0159i poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee s roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00edm jadern\u00fdch kapacit \u010c\u00edny se zvy\u0161uje potenci\u00e1l pro nestrategick\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 vyu\u017eit\u00ed v indo-pacifick\u00e9 oblasti, co\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed podm\u00ednky, kter\u00e9 zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed tradi\u010dn\u00ed americk\u00fd p\u0159\u00edstup k odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Poukazuj\u00ed na z\u00e1sadn\u00ed mezery v doktr\u00edn\u011b a schopnostech USA a poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee USA se siln\u011b spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na strategie z dob studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e9 jsou nedostate\u010dn\u00e9 pro \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00edho se jadern\u00e9ho postoje \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee taktick\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 v\u00fdm\u011bna, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v omezen\u00e9m konfliktu o Tchaj-wan, je nyn\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed kv\u016fli jedine\u010dn\u00e9 geografick\u00e9 poloze a opera\u010dn\u00edmu prost\u0159ed\u00ed Indo-Pacifiku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Metrick a dal\u0161\u00ed v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee tyto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e vystavuj\u00ed USA zranitelnosti jejich platforem, signalizuj\u00ed v\u00fdzvy a nedostatek adekv\u00e1tn\u00edch jadern\u00fdch reakc\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na p\u0159i \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fdch strategi\u00ed jadern\u00e9ho n\u00e1tlaku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Poukazuj\u00ed tak\u00e9 na to, \u017ee USA \u010del\u00ed zna\u010dn\u00fdm obt\u00ed\u017e\u00edm p\u0159i rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed v reakci na p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9 \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, proto\u017ee rozd\u00edln\u00e9 n\u00e1zory na vhodn\u00e9 reakce by mohly v\u00e9st k politick\u00e9 patov\u00e9 situaci.<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159esto se USA spol\u00e9haj\u00ed na strategie z dob studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky, kter\u00e9 jsou st\u00e1le v\u00edce nedostate\u010dn\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":63005,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,333,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63004"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=63004"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63004\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/63005"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=63004"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=63004"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=63004"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}