{"id":62725,"date":"2024-09-24T00:31:16","date_gmt":"2024-09-23T22:31:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=62725"},"modified":"2024-09-24T01:31:47","modified_gmt":"2024-09-23T23:31:47","slug":"mark-lacy-zacalo-zbrojeni-vseho","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/09\/24\/mark-lacy-zacalo-zbrojeni-vseho\/","title":{"rendered":"Mark Lacy: Za\u010dalo zbrojen\u00ed v\u0161eho"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Izraelsk\u00e1 transformace ka\u017edodenn\u00edch komunika\u010dn\u00edch a informa\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f ve smrt\u00edc\u00ed zbran\u011b zahajuje novou \u00e9ru paranoie a strachu<\/p>\n

\u00datoky na pagery a vys\u00edla\u010dky (a\u00a0mo\u017en\u00e1 i sol\u00e1rn\u00ed panely<\/a>\u00a0) v Libanonu pat\u0159\u00ed k ud\u00e1lostem, o kter\u00fdch mnoz\u00ed spekulovali: ozbrojov\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159edm\u011bt\u016f ka\u017edodenn\u00ed pot\u0159eby v konfliktech 21. stolet\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ale pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b byli n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed si mysleli, \u017ee toto \u201evyzbrojen\u00ed v\u0161eho\u201c \u2013 jak to\u00a0\u0159\u00edk\u00e1\u00a0<\/a>bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0analytik Mark Galeotti\u00a0\u2013 bylo p\u0159edm\u011btem hollywoodsk\u00fdch film\u016f nebo kyberpunkov\u00fdch krimin\u00e1ln\u00edch rom\u00e1n\u016f.<\/p>\n

Podle jejich n\u00e1zoru nebyla p\u0159em\u011bna pager\u016f nebo telefon\u016f na v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed technicky ani logisticky mo\u017en\u00e1. Byl to ten typ sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, o kter\u00e9m jen paranoik v\u011b\u0159il, \u017ee se m\u016f\u017ee st\u00e1t realitou.<\/p>\n

Ale te\u010f se to stalo. Zanechalo\u00a037 mrtv\u00fdch<\/a>\u00a0, tis\u00edce dal\u0161\u00edch zranilo a vytvo\u0159ilo mo\u017enost katastrofick\u00e9ho naru\u0161en\u00ed organizace.<\/p>\n

Schopnost komunikovat v r\u00e1mci arm\u00e1dy nebo teroristick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b byla v\u017edy z\u00e1kladem v\u00e1l\u010den\u00ed. A schopnost komunikovat \u2013 a komunikovat rychle \u2013 je t\u00edm d\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u010d\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed je geografick\u00fd rozsah v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

Spole\u010dnost se mus\u00ed spolehnout, \u017ee jej\u00ed komunika\u010dn\u00ed prost\u0159edky jsou spolehliv\u00e9. A mus\u00ed b\u00fdt schopni d\u016fv\u011b\u0159ovat tomu, \u017ee lid\u00e9, se kter\u00fdmi mluv\u00ed, jsou skute\u010dn\u00ed a ne pad\u011blky (nebo produkty AI \u2013 rostouc\u00ed strach ve v\u011bku \u201ehlubok\u00fdch pad\u011blk\u016f\u201c).<\/p>\n

\u010clenov\u00e9 organizace tak\u00e9 pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed naj\u00edt zp\u016fsoby, jak zajistit, aby jim nebylo naslouch\u00e1no \u2013 neust\u00e1l\u00fd strach ve v\u011bku, kdy se komunika\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1stroje neust\u00e1le vyv\u00edjej\u00ed, pokud jde o jejich schopnosti a slo\u017eitost.<\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee ka\u017ed\u00fd podnik v 21. stolet\u00ed mus\u00ed b\u00fdt paranoidn\u00ed ohledn\u011b hrozby digit\u00e1ln\u00edho naru\u0161en\u00ed a r\u016fzn\u00fdch zp\u016fsob\u016f, jak kr\u00e1st, monitorovat, fal\u0161ovat nebo manipulovat s informacemi a komunikac\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ale transformace ka\u017edodenn\u00edch komunika\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f a informac\u00ed ve skute\u010dn\u00e9 zbran\u011b vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed nov\u00fd druh paranoie a strachu.<\/p>\n

Jak moc bychom se m\u011bli b\u00e1t?<\/span><\/h4>\n

Existuje mnoho lid\u00ed, kte\u0159\u00ed tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee to, \u010deho jsme sv\u011bdky v Libanonu, se nevyhnuteln\u011b stane ve \u010dtvrti pobl\u00ed\u017e v\u00e1s.<\/p>\n

Audrey Kurth Cronin, \u0159editelka Institutu pro strategii a technologie na Carnegie Mellon University v USA\u00a0, tvrdila<\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee jednou z nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch v\u00fdzev na obzoru je mo\u017enost smrt\u00edc\u00edho vylep\u0161en\u00ed ze strany nest\u00e1tn\u00edch akt\u00e9r\u016f v \u00e9\u0159e \u201eotev\u0159en\u00fdch technologi\u00ed\u201c. inovace“.<\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, \u017eijeme v dob\u011b, kdy je pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed disruptivn\u00edch technologi\u00ed otev\u0159en\u00e9 rostouc\u00edmu po\u010dtu organizac\u00ed a jednotlivc\u016f. U\u017e to nejsou hlavn\u00ed mocnosti, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed ve\u0161kerou technologickou moc.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v dob\u011b rostouc\u00edho geopolitick\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed mohou existovat sv\u011btov\u00ed l\u00edd\u0159i, kte\u0159\u00ed c\u00edt\u00ed, \u017ee mohou otestovat mo\u017enosti taktiky, kterou jejich hacke\u0159i a technologi\u010dt\u00ed experti napl\u00e1novali a vyzkou\u0161eli.<\/p>\n

V roce 1999\u00a0napsali<\/a>\u00a0dva \u010d\u00edn\u0161t\u00ed vojen\u0161t\u00ed plukovn\u00edci\u00a0knihu<\/a>\u00a0o m\u011bn\u00edc\u00ed se povaze v\u00e1lky a mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed politiky v dob\u011b digit\u00e1ln\u00edch technologi\u00ed. Jejich my\u0161lenky jsem popsal ve sv\u00e9 knize z roku 2023\u00a0Theorizing Future Conflict: War Out to 2049<\/a>\u00a0.<\/p>\n

Jeden z nejv\u00edce znepokojuj\u00edc\u00edch post\u0159eh\u016f v jej\u00ed knize se t\u00fdk\u00e1 mo\u017en\u00e9ho zbrojen\u00ed v\u0161eho v budouc\u00edch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch konfliktech: \u201e[Tyto] nov\u00e9 koncep\u010dn\u00ed zbran\u011b zp\u016fsob\u00ed velk\u00fd \u00fadiv mezi oby\u010dejn\u00fdmi lidmi i arm\u00e1dami, \u017ee i ka\u017edodenn\u00ed v\u011bci se mohou st\u00e1t zbran\u011bmi, s nimi\u017e… m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st v\u00e1lku.“<\/p>\n

Ud\u00e1losti v Libanonu n\u00e1m tedy mohou poskytnout pohled na to, co ti vojen\u0161t\u00ed futurist\u00e9 z \u010c\u00edny vid\u011bli na obzoru. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b se teprve uvid\u00ed, zda budou st\u00e1ty schopny dr\u017eet krok s neust\u00e1le se m\u011bn\u00edc\u00edm bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edm prost\u0159ed\u00edm. Nach\u00e1z\u00edme se v dob\u011b rychl\u00fdch zm\u011bn s \u0159adou nov\u00fdch technologi\u00ed.<\/p>\n

St\u00e1ty, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed nal\u00e9hav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed probl\u00e9my a postr\u00e1daj\u00ed pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 zdroje, mohou m\u00edt v\u00edce starost\u00ed. A skupiny jako Hizball\u00e1h by mohly vstoupit do nov\u00e9 f\u00e1ze zranitelnosti, proto\u017ee tato nov\u00e1 \u00e9ra konfliktu p\u0159ech\u00e1z\u00ed od futuristick\u00fdch spekulac\u00ed k brut\u00e1ln\u00ed realit\u011b.<\/p>\n

Geopolitick\u00e9 implikace<\/span><\/h4>\n

Ud\u00e1losti v Libanonu je\u0161t\u011b neskon\u010dily a nev\u00edme, zda budou n\u00e1sledovat dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fatoky. Tak\u00e9 nev\u00edme, jak\u00fd \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed geopolitick\u00fd dopad budou m\u00edt \u00fatoky na region.<\/p>\n

V tuto chv\u00edli to v\u0161ak vypad\u00e1, \u017ee existuje digit\u00e1ln\u00ed a geopolitick\u00e1 propast mezi t\u011bmi, kte\u0159\u00ed budou trp\u011bt t\u011bmito nov\u00fdmi taktikami v r\u00e1mci zbrojen\u00ed v\u0161eho, a t\u011bmi, kte\u0159\u00ed budou schopni zav\u00e1d\u011bt st\u00e1le kreativn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed typy \u00fatok\u016f na jednotlivce a zinscenovat organizace na d\u00e1lku.<\/p>\n

Pro zem\u011b jako Spojen\u00e9 kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed se zd\u00e1 nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by glob\u00e1ln\u00ed konflikt dos\u00e1hl bodu, kdy by nep\u0159\u00e1telsk\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jako Rusko vyu\u017e\u00edvaly zranitelnosti, kter\u00e9 odhalily v za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edch ka\u017edodenn\u00edho \u017eivota.<\/p>\n

R\u016fzn\u00e9 strategie odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed \u2013 jako jsou jadern\u00e9 arzen\u00e1ly, kter\u00e9 zahrnuj\u00ed vz\u00e1jemn\u011b zaru\u010den\u00e9 zni\u010den\u00ed \u2013 udr\u017euj\u00ed, alespo\u0148 prozat\u00edm, v\u011bt\u0161inu na\u0161ich konflikt\u016f pod prahem otev\u0159en\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/p>\n

A pokud geopolitick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed dos\u00e1hne bodu, kdy Rusko Vladimira Putina prozkoum\u00e1 tyto nov\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 mo\u017enosti, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b bychom se m\u011bli mnohem v\u00edce b\u00e1t ne\u017e exploduj\u00edc\u00edch iPhon\u016f.<\/p>\n

Ale jsou to nest\u00e1tn\u00ed subjekty, kter\u00e9 tyto typy \u00fatok\u016f neodrazuj\u00ed. Mus\u00edme tedy doufat, \u017ee nemaj\u00ed organiza\u010dn\u00ed schopnosti nezbytn\u00e9 k p\u0159em\u011bn\u011b ka\u017edodenn\u00edch p\u0159edm\u011bt\u016f na v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed \u2013 a mus\u00edme doufat, \u017ee bezpe\u010dnostn\u00ed slu\u017eby po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b dohl\u00ed\u017eej\u00ed na nov\u00e9 hrozby.<\/p>\n

V dob\u011b dramatick\u00fdch a rychl\u00fdch zm\u011bn v AI, dronech, robotech a kybernetick\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch je jedinou jistotou nejistota v tomto slo\u017eit\u00e9m a \u010dasto d\u011bsiv\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b, ve kter\u00e9m \u017eijeme.<\/p>\n

*<\/p>\n

Mark Lacy<\/a>\u00a0p\u0159edn\u00e1\u0161\u00ed politiku, filozofii a n\u00e1bo\u017eenstv\u00ed na\u00a0Lancaster University<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Izraelsk\u00e1 transformace ka\u017edodenn\u00edch komunika\u010dn\u00edch a informa\u010dn\u00edch prost\u0159edk\u016f ve smrt\u00edc\u00ed zbran\u011b zahajuje novou \u00e9ru paranoie a…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62726,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[107,1503,338],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62725"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62725"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62725\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62726"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62725"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62725"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62725"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}