{"id":62554,"date":"2024-09-20T04:23:50","date_gmt":"2024-09-20T02:23:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=62554"},"modified":"2024-09-20T04:23:50","modified_gmt":"2024-09-20T02:23:50","slug":"martin-jay-byla-izraelske-explodujici-zarizeni-v-libanonu-uspesna","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/09\/20\/martin-jay-byla-izraelske-explodujici-zarizeni-v-libanonu-uspesna\/","title":{"rendered":"Martin Jay: Byla izraelsk\u00e9 exploduj\u00edc\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed v Libanonu \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e1?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

P\u00e1d na vlastn\u00ed p\u011bst mus\u00ed d\u011blat starosti jak Izraeli, tak Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Je neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 de\u0161ifrovat ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 ud\u00e1losti v Libanonu. Nejd\u0159\u00edve to byly v\u00fdbuchy pager\u016f a pak ned\u00e1vno vys\u00edla\u010dky, nyn\u00ed s 20 mrtv\u00fdmi a v\u00edce ne\u017e 500 zran\u011bn\u00fdmi. A\u010dkoli Izrael operaci nep\u0159izn\u00e1v\u00e1, je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee jeho otisky prst\u016f jsou po cel\u00e9 operaci, a tak by bylo snadn\u00e9 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee to byl pro Netanjahua obrovsk\u00fd \u00fasp\u011bch. \u0160okovala Hizball\u00e1h, vy\u0159adila jeho komunikaci, i kdy\u017e jen do\u010dasn\u011b, a uk\u00e1zala Libanonc\u016fm i sv\u011btu, \u017ee Izrael m\u00e1 p\u0159ed \u00cdr\u00e1nem podporovanou z\u00e1stupnou organizac\u00ed n\u00e1skok. Bylo to mazan\u00e9, origin\u00e1ln\u00ed a geni\u00e1ln\u00ed ve sv\u00e9 jednoduchosti a \u00fa\u010dinnosti. A takov\u00fd \u00fatok zaujal z\u00e1padn\u00ed m\u00e9dia, kter\u00e1 se p\u0159i jeho zpravodajstv\u00ed p\u0159edh\u00e1n\u011bla.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Medi\u00e1ln\u00ed experti a koment\u00e1to\u0159i, na kter\u00e9 se obracej\u00ed, samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nemohou \u0159\u00edci, co se stane d\u00e1l. Mnoz\u00ed v\u0161ak spekuluj\u00ed, \u017ee jde o p\u0159edehru k \u00fatoku, k tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lce mezi Izraelem a Hizball\u00e1hem, kter\u00e1 se vede v ji\u017en\u00edm Libanonu. Z\u017een\u0161til\u00fd a do sebe zahled\u011bn\u00fd Tom Fletcher, kter\u00fd b\u00fdval velvyslancem Spojen\u00e9ho kr\u00e1lovstv\u00ed v Libanonu, d\u0159\u00edve nenab\u00edzel \u017e\u00e1dnou proz\u00edravost ani vhled, ale jen opakoval star\u00e1 kli\u0161\u00e9 v r\u00e1diu BBC. Jeremy Bowen, zku\u0161en\u00fd hacker BBC na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b, nab\u00eddl v\u00edce. Bowen upozor\u0148uje, \u017ee r\u00e9torika Izraele se v posledn\u00edch dnech je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce vyost\u0159ila a k libanonsk\u00fdm hranic\u00edm se p\u0159esunulo je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce vojensk\u00e9 techniky, co\u017e nazna\u010duje, \u017ee se bl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed invaze. Upozor\u0148uje v\u0161ak tak\u00e9, \u017ee Izrael m\u00e1 za sebou historii invaz\u00ed do Libanonu, ze kter\u00fdch v\u017edy odch\u00e1zel s krvav\u00fdm nosem, a pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 kli\u0161\u00e9, \u017ee jde p\u0159es vrchol propasti.<\/p>\n

P\u00e1d na vlastn\u00ed me\u010d mus\u00ed Izraeli i USA skute\u010dn\u011b d\u011blat starosti.<\/p>\n

Bowen se tak\u00e9 opatrn\u011b kryje a dod\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee \u00fatok gadget\u016f m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt klidn\u011b sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed zastra\u0161ovac\u00ed strategie, kter\u00e1 nezahrnuje plnohodnotnou invazi. To nikdo doopravdy nev\u00ed. Pozemn\u00ed invaze p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm k \u0159ece Litani v\u0161ak mus\u00ed Netanjahuovi le\u017eet na srdci. Je\u0161t\u011b jednou zlomit proklet\u00ed, \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 si mo\u017en\u00e1. Jeho gener\u00e1lov\u00e9 budou m\u00edt o takov\u00fd podnik tak\u00e9 z\u00e1jem, co\u017e by vysv\u011btlovalo \u00fatok na gadgety, proto\u017ee mnoho bojovn\u00edk\u016f Hizball\u00e1hu z\u016fstalo oslepeno nebo \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b oslepeno.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto existuje je\u0161t\u011b jedna teorie, kterou BBC nenab\u00edz\u00ed, a to \u017ee pagery a vys\u00edla\u010dky byly zachyceny ji\u017e d\u00e1vno p\u0159i p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b jednoho dne na \u00fatok \u2013 ale \u017ee Izrael z\u00edskal n\u011bjak\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace, \u017ee Hizball\u00e1h tuto lest odhalil nebo se k tomu chyst\u00e1. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by d\u00e1valo smysl je odp\u00e1lit, aby oba vyu\u017eili v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed a doufali v maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed po\u010det ob\u011bt\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ale i v t\u00e9to rovin\u011b je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee \u00farove\u0148 v\u00fdbu\u0161niny p\u0159idan\u00e9 do obou p\u0159\u00edstroj\u016f byla \u0161patn\u011b odhadnuta, proto\u017ee samotn\u00e9 exploze m\u011bly z vojensk\u00e9ho hlediska za n\u00e1sledek velmi m\u00e1lo zabit\u00ed. Za p\u00e1r gram\u016f nav\u00edc to mo\u017en\u00e1 mohly b\u00fdt stovky zabit\u00fdch bojovn\u00edk\u016f Hizball\u00e1hu.<\/p>\n

Libanon je pln\u00fd izraelsk\u00fdch \u0161pion\u016f i inform\u00e1tor\u016f. Izraelci odtamtud obvykle maj\u00ed vynikaj\u00edc\u00ed zpravodajsk\u00e9 informace a v\u011bd\u00ed mnohem v\u00edc, ne\u017e by Hizball\u00e1h r\u00e1d p\u0159iznal. Nen\u00ed pochyb o tom, \u017ee je to pro Hizball\u00e1h por\u00e1\u017eka, proto\u017ee to vypad\u00e1, \u017ee m\u00e1 spoustu bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edch mezer, kter\u00fdmi m\u016f\u017ee Mossad prosko\u010dit, kdykoli se mu zachce. Samoz\u0159ejm\u011b, \u017ee to te\u010f bude zp\u0159\u00edsn\u011bno, ale tento izraelsk\u00fd kousek byl geni\u00e1ln\u00ed a zanechal v\u016fdce Hizball\u00e1hu vypadat rozf\u00e1zovan\u011b a mimo jeho hrozby. \u00cdr\u00e1n je v\u0161ak v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed bestie, u n\u00ed\u017e je v s\u00e1zce v\u00edc. \u010c\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jsi, t\u00edm h\u016f\u0159e dopadne\u0161, to jist\u011b plat\u00ed i pro Teher\u00e1n. \u00cdr\u00e1nci byli pon\u00ed\u017eeni t\u00edm, \u017ee jejich vrchn\u00ed velitel byl na cest\u00e1ch zavra\u017ed\u011bn Trumpem; ned\u00e1vno byl p\u0159i n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bv\u011b Teher\u00e1nu zavra\u017ed\u011bn i palestinsk\u00fd v\u016fdce a v posledn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch bylo p\u0159i operac\u00edch IDF\/Mossadu v Libanonu zabito p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 mnoho velitel\u016f Hizball\u00e1hu. Zku\u0161en\u00ed hav\u00ed\u0159i v regionu poka\u017ed\u00e9 hovo\u0159\u00ed o tom, \u017ee Hizball\u00e1h a \u00cdr\u00e1n si d\u00e1vaj\u00ed na \u010das, aby Z\u00e1padu a Izraeli naserv\u00edrovali sv\u016fj studen\u00fd pokrm pomsty, ale vypad\u00e1 to, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n se chce za ka\u017edou cenu vyhnout tot\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lce se Z\u00e1padem. To je kupodivu i Bidenov\u00fdm c\u00edlem, nicm\u00e9n\u011b pokud jsou tyto ned\u00e1vn\u00e9 \u00fatoky sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed pl\u00e1novan\u00e9 pozemn\u00ed ofenz\u00edvy, jak nazna\u010duj\u00ed i velitel\u00e9 IDF, jak ofenz\u00edva \u201egravituje\u201c sm\u011brem k Libanonu, pak Teher\u00e1nu nezbude nic jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e zv\u00fd\u0161it s\u00e1zky.<\/p>\n

Je sice pravda, \u017ee \u00fatok gadget\u016f byl p\u016fsobiv\u00fd svou originalitou, ale nikdy bychom nem\u011bli podce\u0148ovat kroky, kter\u00e9 m\u016f\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n p\u0159ipravit pro nev\u00fdraznou izraelskou p\u011bchotu na boji\u0161ti v Libanonu nebo dokonce uvnit\u0159 Izraele. IDF sv\u00fdmi invazemi v roce 1982 i ned\u00e1vno v roce 2006 nikdy nedos\u00e1hly ni\u010deho, co by se dalo dokonce sexovat jako v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed. Hizball\u00e1h tehdy u\u0161t\u011bd\u0159il IDF v r\u00e1mci Libanonu poni\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00fdprask a Izrael by ud\u011blal dob\u0159e, kdyby si uv\u011bdomil, \u017ee jeho arm\u00e1da libanonsk\u00fdch bojovn\u00edk\u016f je dnes je\u0161t\u011b lep\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e d\u0159\u00edve. Pro Izrael je to krut\u00e1 ironie, ale jeho invaze poslou\u017eily pouze k tomu, \u017ee Hizball\u00e1h jako disciplinovan\u00e1 arm\u00e1da dok\u00e1zal ve v\u00e1lce ochromit IDF. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by takov\u00e1 por\u00e1\u017eka zcela jist\u011b znamenala konec jak\u00e9koli politick\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy elity v Tel Avivu, ale dost mo\u017en\u00e1 by znamenala i konec Izraele, jak ho zn\u00e1me. Je Netanjahu tak pom\u00fdlen\u00fd, \u017ee by takov\u00fd krok riskoval?<\/p>\n

\n

Was Israel\u2019s exploding devices in Lebanon a success?<\/a> vy\u0161el 19.9.2024 na Strategic Culture. P\u0159eklad\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u00e1d na vlastn\u00ed p\u011bst mus\u00ed d\u011blat starosti jak Izraeli, tak Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm Je neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u011b t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":38223,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,6772,107,312],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62554"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62554"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62554\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/38223"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62554"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62554"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62554"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}