{"id":62440,"date":"2024-09-19T00:39:30","date_gmt":"2024-09-18T22:39:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=62440"},"modified":"2024-09-18T16:27:48","modified_gmt":"2024-09-18T14:27:48","slug":"explodujici-pagery-by-mohly-vyvolat-valku-na-blizkem-vychode","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/09\/19\/explodujici-pagery-by-mohly-vyvolat-valku-na-blizkem-vychode\/","title":{"rendered":"Exploduj\u00edc\u00ed pagery by mohly vyvolat v\u00e1lku na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u00cdr\u00e1nem podporovan\u00fd Hizball\u00e1h oznamuje odvetu proti Izraeli za velkolep\u00fd technick\u00fd \u00fatok, kter\u00fd p\u0159ipravuje p\u016fdu pro v\u00e1lku v pln\u00e9m rozsahu<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dadajn\u00fd izraelsk\u00fd \u00fatok na \u010dleny Hizball\u00e1hu prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm jejich pageru je dal\u0161\u00edm zlov\u011bstn\u00fdm v\u00fdvojem, kter\u00fd tla\u010d\u00ed Bl\u00edzk\u00fd v\u00fdchod k tot\u00e1ln\u00ed region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lce. Hizball\u00e1h nem\u00e1 jinou mo\u017enost, ne\u017e ude\u0159it zp\u011bt s plnou podporou \u00cdr\u00e1nem veden\u00e9 \u201eOsy odporu\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Propracovanost a dopad \u00fatoku na pagery je bezprecedentn\u00ed. \u00datok\u00a0<\/span>si vy\u017e\u00e1dal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0nejm\u00e9n\u011b\u00a0<\/span>11 mrtv\u00fdch<\/span><\/a>\u00a0, v\u010detn\u011b n\u011bkter\u00fdch bojovn\u00edk\u016f Hizball\u00e1hu, a\u00a0<\/span>a\u017e 3000<\/span><\/a>\u00a0zran\u011bn\u00fdch.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem \u00fatoku, kter\u00fd\u00a0<\/span>podle<\/span><\/a>\u00a0americk\u00fdch p\u0159edstavitel\u016f provedl Izrael, bylo naru\u0161it komunika\u010dn\u00ed a \u0159\u00edd\u00edc\u00ed a kontroln\u00ed syst\u00e9m Hizball\u00e1hu v Libanonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee\u00a0<\/span>Hizball\u00e1h\u00a0<\/span><\/a>omezil\u00a0<\/a><\/span>pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed mobiln\u00edch telefon\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0sv\u00fdmi\u00a0silami\u00a0, proto\u017ee Izrael je m\u016f\u017ee snadno sledovat a zam\u011b\u0159it se na n\u011b, staly se pagery st\u00e1le v\u00edce preferovan\u00fdm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm pro zas\u00edl\u00e1n\u00ed zpr\u00e1v v r\u00e1mci skupiny.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00datok by tak\u00e9 mohl b\u00fdt zam\u011b\u0159en na vyvol\u00e1n\u00ed paniky uvnit\u0159 skupiny a mezi libanonskou ve\u0159ejnost\u00ed, z nich\u017e mnoz\u00ed\u00a0nepodporuj\u00ed\u00a0<\/a><\/span>Hizball\u00e1h<\/span><\/a>\u00a0vzhledem k politick\u00e9mu rozd\u011blen\u00ed zem\u011b\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od \u00fatok\u016f Hamasu na ji\u017en\u00ed Izrael 7. \u0159\u00edjna izraelsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed pod veden\u00edm premi\u00e9ra Benjamina Netanjahua opakovan\u011b prohl\u00e1silo, \u017ee je\u00a0<\/span>odhodl\u00e1no<\/span><\/a>\u00a0eliminovat hrozbu, kterou p\u0159edstavuje Hizball\u00e1h, kter\u00fd funguje solid\u00e1rn\u011b s Hamasem.<\/span><\/p>\n

N\u011bkolik hodin p\u0159ed \u00fatokem na pager\u00a0<\/span>dala<\/span><\/a>\u00a0Netanjahuova vl\u00e1da\u00a0<\/span>jasn\u011b<\/span><\/a>\u00a0najevo , \u017ee mezi v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 c\u00edle Izraele bude pat\u0159it n\u00e1vrat des\u00edtek tis\u00edc obyvatel do jejich domov\u016f v severn\u00edm Izraeli, odkud uprchli kv\u016fli neust\u00e1l\u00e9 raketov\u00e9 palb\u011b z Hizball\u00e1hu. Izraelsk\u00fd ministr obrany Yoav Gallant uvedl, \u017ee to bude mo\u017en\u00e9 pouze prost\u0159ednictv\u00edm vojensk\u00e9 akce.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00datern\u00ed simult\u00e1nn\u00ed v\u00fdbuchy pageru by mohly b\u00fdt za\u010d\u00e1tkem velk\u00e9 izraelsk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy proti Hizball\u00e1hu.<\/span><\/p>\n

D\u016fsledky v\u00e1lky s Hizball\u00e1hem<\/span><\/h4>\n

Hizball\u00e1h ji\u017e \u0159ekl, \u017ee podnikne odvetu. Jakou podobu to bude m\u00edt, se teprve uvid\u00ed. Skupina m\u00e1 obrovskou vojenskou kapacitu nejen k bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed severn\u00edho Izraele drony a raketami, ale tak\u00e9 k \u00fatok\u016fm na dal\u0161\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti \u017eidovsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu, v\u010detn\u011b hust\u011b os\u00eddlen\u00fdch m\u011bst, jako je Tel Aviv.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hizball\u00e1h tuto schopnost prok\u00e1zal ve sv\u00e9 v\u00e1lce s Izraelem v roce 2006. V\u00e1lka trvala 34 dn\u00ed, b\u011bhem kter\u00fdch\u00a0<\/span>bylo zabito 165 Izraelc\u016f<\/span><\/a>\u00a0(121 voj\u00e1k\u016f IDF a 44 civilist\u016f) a izraelsk\u00e1 ekonomika a turistick\u00fd pr\u016fmysl utrp\u011bly zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u0161kody. Ztr\u00e1ty Hizball\u00e1hu a Libanonu byly mnohem vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, nejm\u00e9n\u011b 1100 mrtv\u00fdch.\u00a0Izraelsk\u00fdm<\/a>\u00a0obrann\u00fdm sil\u00e1m (IDF) se\u00a0v\u0161ak\u00a0<\/span>nepoda\u0159ilo<\/span><\/a>\u00a0skupinu\u00a0zni\u010dit nebo zneschopnit<\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak\u00fdkoli \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00fd odvetn\u00fd \u00fatok na izraelsk\u00e1 m\u011bsta by mohl m\u00edt za n\u00e1sledek t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 civiln\u00ed ob\u011bti a poskytnout Izraeli dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1minku k prosazen\u00ed sv\u00e9ho dlouhodob\u00e9ho c\u00edle, kter\u00fdm je zni\u010den\u00ed Hizball\u00e1hu a potrest\u00e1n\u00ed jeho hlavn\u00edho podporovatele, \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 isl\u00e1msk\u00e9 republiky.<\/span><\/p>\n

V \u0161ir\u0161\u00edm konfliktu jsou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty povinny br\u00e1nit Izrael, zat\u00edmco \u00cdr\u00e1n by podporoval Hizball\u00e1h jak\u00fdmkoli mo\u017en\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem. Pokud se izrael\u0161t\u00ed a ameri\u010dt\u00ed v\u016fdci domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n se bude i nad\u00e1le zdr\u017eovat v\u0161eho, co by ho mohlo dohnat do v\u00e1lky s Izraelem a USA, pak se m\u00fdl\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hizball\u00e1h je \u00fast\u0159edn\u00edm prvkem paradigmatu n\u00e1rodn\u00ed a region\u00e1ln\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti re\u017eimu. Teher\u00e1n spolu s dal\u0161\u00edmi region\u00e1ln\u00edmi spojenci \u2013 zejm\u00e9na ir\u00e1ck\u00fdmi milicemi, jemensk\u00fdmi H\u00fas\u00edy a syrsk\u00fdm re\u017eimem Ba\u0161\u00e1ra al-Asada \u2013 do skupiny zna\u010dn\u011b investoval. C\u00edlem t\u00e9to \u201eOsy odporu\u201c bylo vybudovat siln\u00fd odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed prost\u0159edek proti Izraeli a USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od sv\u00e9ho zalo\u017een\u00ed p\u0159ed 45 lety pohl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd re\u017eim na Izrael a jeho hlavn\u00edho podporovatele, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty, jako na existen\u010dn\u00ed hrozbu, stejn\u011b jako Izrael pohl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed na \u00cdr\u00e1n stejn\u00fdm zp\u016fsobem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Za t\u00edmto \u00fa\u010delem re\u017eim zam\u011b\u0159il sv\u00e9 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed vztahy na hlavn\u00ed americk\u00e9 protivn\u00edky, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm Rusko a \u010c\u00ednu. Vojensk\u00e1\u00a0<\/span>spolupr\u00e1ce mezi Ruskem a \u00cdr\u00e1nem<\/span><\/a>\u00a0se stala tak bl\u00edzkou, \u017ee Moskva jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed bude v\u00e1hat s podporou \u00cdr\u00e1nu a jeho spojenc\u016f ve v\u00e1lce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1n si je pln\u011b v\u011bdom izraelsk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed. Aby se \u00cdr\u00e1n proti tomu ochr\u00e1nil, vyvinul sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed jadern\u00fd program a\u017e do\u00a0<\/span>bodu<\/span><\/a>\u00a0v\u00fdvoje zbran\u011b. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e9 veden\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e1 tak\u00e9 dostalo od Ruska uji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee podpo\u0159\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nskou obranu, pokud se Izrael uch\u00fdl\u00ed ke sv\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm zbran\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mezit\u00edm je d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 m\u00edt na pam\u011bti, \u017ee po t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 roce ni\u010den\u00ed Gazy a ni\u010den\u00ed jej\u00edch obyvatel se Izraeli nepoda\u0159ilo vyhladit Ham\u00e1s.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mluv\u00ed za to va\u0161e vlastn\u00ed \u010diny. Neust\u00e1le nut\u00ed obyvatele Gazy p\u0159esouvat se, aby voj\u00e1ci IDF mohli operovat v oblastech, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edt\u00edm prohl\u00e1sili za bojov\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00dakol porazit Hizball\u00e1h a jeho stoupence by byl mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed c\u00edl. P\u0159edstavuje v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 riziko v\u00e1lky, kterou si v\u0161echny strany nep\u0159ej\u00ed, ale na kterou se v\u0161ichni p\u0159ipravuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00datok na pager je jen posledn\u00ed ze s\u00e9rie akc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 ohro\u017euj\u00ed \u0161ance na trval\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed v Gaze, kter\u00e9 by mohlo stabilizovat region a p\u0159isp\u011bt sp\u00ed\u0161e k m\u00edru ne\u017e k v\u00e1lce.<\/span><\/p>\n

Amin Saikal<\/span><\/a>\u00a0je emeritn\u00edm profesorem bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00edch a st\u0159edoasijsk\u00fdch studi\u00ed na\u00a0<\/span>Australian National University<\/span><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00cdr\u00e1nem podporovan\u00fd Hizball\u00e1h oznamuje odvetu proti Izraeli za velkolep\u00fd technick\u00fd \u00fatok, kter\u00fd p\u0159ipravuje p\u016fdu pro…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62441,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[6772,107,7945,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62440"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62440"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62440\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62440"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62440"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62440"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}