{"id":62265,"date":"2024-09-16T06:33:42","date_gmt":"2024-09-16T04:33:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=62265"},"modified":"2024-09-16T06:33:42","modified_gmt":"2024-09-16T04:33:42","slug":"michael-svatos-putinuv-rozkaz-%d1%80%d0%bf%d1%85-%d1%84-360-24k-7-listopadu-bud-kyjev-kapituluje-nebo-se-cela-zalezitost-okamzite-vyridi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/09\/16\/michael-svatos-putinuv-rozkaz-%d1%80%d0%bf%d1%85-%d1%84-360-24k-7-listopadu-bud-kyjev-kapituluje-nebo-se-cela-zalezitost-okamzite-vyridi\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Svato\u0161: Putin\u016fv rozkaz \u0420\u041f\u0425-\u0444-360\/24k! 7. listopadu bu\u010f Kyjev kapituluje, nebo se cel\u00e1 z\u00e1le\u017eitost okam\u017eit\u011b vy\u0159\u00edd\u00ed…"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Putin\u016fv rozkaz \u0420\u041f\u0425-\u0444-360\/24k! 7. listopadu bu\u010f Kyjev kapituluje, nebo se cel\u00e1 z\u00e1le\u017eitost okam\u017eit\u011b vy\u0159\u00edd\u00ed jednou pro v\u017edy! Anal\u00fdza nejrafinovan\u011bj\u0161\u00edho v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9ho pl\u00e1nu jak\u00fd gener\u00e1l Gerasimov kdy Gosudarovi p\u0159edlo\u017eil k podpisu!<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Prezident Zelenskyj, stejn\u011b jako v\u0161ichni chyt\u0159\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed gener\u00e1lov\u00e9 a informovan\u00ed politici u\u017e p\u00e1r t\u00fddn\u016f v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee Kyjev bu\u010f rychle kapituluje, a nebo p\u0159es leto\u0161n\u00ed zimu gener\u00e1l Gerasimov nel\u00edtostn\u011b sraz\u00ed celou zem na kolena, a na ja\u0159e pohodln\u011b obsad\u00ed vylidn\u011bn\u00e1 ukrajinsk\u00e1 m\u011bsta. Rusk\u00fd v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd pl\u00e1n \u0420\u041f\u0425-\u0444-360\/24 se zd\u00e1, \u017ee nem\u00e1 chybu. Jedin\u00fd protitah, kter\u00fd mozky kyjevsk\u00e9 Soldatesky zat\u00edm proti pl\u00e1nu \u0420\u041f\u0425 vymyslely, je za\u010d\u00edt st\u0159\u00edlet do Ruska americk\u00e9 a dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed dalekonosn\u00e9 rakety. A vystra\u0161en\u00fd Zelenskyj se proto osobn\u011b vypravil do Washingtonu za pap\u00e1 Bidenem, aby mu rakety dal, a st\u0159\u00edlet povolil. \u017de to m\u016f\u017ee vyvolat jadernou v\u00e1lku, Zelensk\u00e9ho nezaj\u00edm\u00e1, stoj\u00ed toti\u017e bezprost\u0159edn\u011b p\u0159ed svou tot\u00e1ln\u00ed a neodvratitelnou por\u00e1\u017ekou. Jak rozhodne Biden se v dob\u011b, kdy p\u00ed\u0161i tuto anal\u00fdzu, je\u0161t\u011b nev\u00ed. Ale z\u00e1padn\u00ed analytici se u\u017e v\u011bt\u0161inov\u011b shodli, \u017ee ani ukrajinsk\u00e1 st\u0159elba z\u00e1padn\u00edmi raketami do Ruska pl\u00e1n \u0420\u041f\u0425-\u0444-360\/24 neodvr\u00e1t\u00ed, pouze m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt realizov\u00e1n ve sv\u00e9 podstatn\u011b hor\u0161\u00ed variant\u011b J, (\u044f).<\/p>\n

Abychom pochopili cel\u00fd smysl pl\u00e1nu \u0420\u041f\u0425-24, mus\u00edme se vr\u00e1tit do jara 2022. U\u017e 22. \u00fanora 2022 jsme v anal\u00fdze MAP 1085 zve\u0159ejnili, (viz MAP 1526<\/a>), \u017ee hlavn\u00edm c\u00edlem tehdej\u0161\u00edch rusk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f je obsadit v\u0161echny 4 ukrajinsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny, proto\u017ee kontrola nad t\u011bmito kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdmi zdroji elektrick\u00e9 energie, umo\u017en\u00ed Putinovi jejich \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 vypnut\u00ed, a t\u00edm odstaven\u00ed cel\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b z provozu, a p\u0159itom nikdo nem\u016f\u017ee tyto elektr\u00e1rny dob\u00fdvat zp\u011bt, proto\u017ee by t\u00edm zp\u016fsobil velk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 hav\u00e1rie. Na\u0161e anal\u00fdza byla sice n\u011bjak\u00fdmi bd\u011bl\u00fdmi fialov\u00fdmi cenzory neprodlen\u011b vymaz\u00e1na, a z\u016fstala\u00a0jen jej\u00ed kopie<\/a>, ale o deset m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f pozd\u011bji ji obsahov\u011b potvrdil \u00a0The Royal United Services Institute<\/a>\u00a0(RUSI), jedna z nejpresti\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edch sv\u011btov\u00fdch organizac\u00ed pro studium v\u00e1lek a konflikt\u016f. Je tak najisto jist\u00e9, \u017ee jedn\u00edm ze zp\u016fsob\u016f, jak donutit Kyjev ke kapitulaci, je vypnout v\u0161echny ukrajinsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny.<\/p>\n

Gener\u00e1l Gerasimov tento sv\u016fj c\u00edl sice na ja\u0159e 2022 nesplnil, ale c\u00edle se nevzdal. A modifikoval tehdej\u0161\u00ed pl\u00e1n \u0420\u041f\u0425\/22 do jeho sou\u010dasn\u00e9 podoby \u0420\u041f\u0425\/24. Proto\u017ee jadernou elektr\u00e1rnu nelze vypnout p\u0159\u00edm\u00fdm z\u00e1sahem jej\u00ed strojovny, jako ka\u017edou jinou elektr\u00e1rnu, nebo\u0165 by to vyvolalo jadernou hav\u00e1rii. A proto\u017ee 3 zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny nyn\u00ed nelze vojensky obsadit, nebo\u0165 Rusov\u00e9 se k nim te\u010f nedok\u00e1\u017eou prob\u00edt, a ani je u\u017e p\u0159\u00edmo dob\u00fdvat nemohou, proto\u017ee by tak zp\u016fsobili jadern\u00e9 hav\u00e1rie, neb Ukrajinci je na rozd\u00edl od jara 2022 u\u017e vojensky opevnili. P\u0159i\u0161el Gerasimov na geni\u00e1ln\u00ed technick\u00fd pl\u00e1n, jak donutit jejich ukrajinsk\u00e9 obsluhy, aby jadern\u00e9 reaktory bu\u010f samy odstavily, a nebo aby samy zp\u016fsobily jejich jadern\u00e9 hav\u00e1rie.<\/p>\n

D\u016fle\u017eitou roli v pl\u00e1nu \u0420\u041f\u0425-\u0444-360\/24 hraj\u00ed ir\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rakety\u00a0\u0424\u0430\u0442\u0435\u0445-360. Jejich leto\u0161n\u00ed letn\u00ed dod\u00e1vky do Ruska potvrdili ned\u00e1vno jak\u00a0<\/span>Bakshaish Ardestani, \u010dlen ir\u00e1nsk\u00e9 rady n\u00e1rodn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti,\u00a0kter\u00fd se chlubil<\/a>, \u017ee je Ir\u00e1nci vym\u011bnili za ruskou p\u0161enici a s\u00f3jov\u00e9 boby, tak satelitn\u00ed sn\u00edmky\u00a0jejich p\u0159epravy ruskou n\u00e1kladn\u00ed lod\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0z Ir\u00e1nu p\u0159es Kaspick\u00e9 mo\u0159e. Rakety Fateh-360 jsou p\u0159esn\u00e9, levn\u00e9 a vyr\u00e1b\u011bn\u00e9 ve v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch po\u010dtech. Z\u00e1pad je dok\u00e1\u017ee s jistou men\u0161\u00ed m\u00edrou pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed sest\u0159elit pouze Patriotem. Jejich nev\u00fdhodou proti pokro\u010dil\u00fdm rusk\u00fdm st\u0159el\u00e1m je v\u0161ak kr\u00e1tk\u00fd dost\u0159el 120km. Existuje n\u011bkolik teori\u00ed, pro\u010d Rusko rakety Fateh-360 nakoupilo. Asi nejzaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00ed jsou nyn\u00ed anal\u00fdzy, kter\u00e9 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee rakety Fateh maj\u00ed Rus\u016fm u\u0161et\u0159it jejich vlastn\u00ed drah\u00e9 balistick\u00e9 rakety Iskander, a dal\u0161\u00ed r\u016fzn\u00e9 p\u0159esn\u00e9 modern\u00ed st\u0159ely, kter\u00e9 se letos tak osv\u011bd\u010dily p\u0159i ni\u010den\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren a kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch bod\u016f ukrajinsk\u00e9 elektrick\u00e9 rozvodn\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b. Levn\u00e9 rakety Fateh tak maj\u00ed nahradit rusk\u00e9 rakety a st\u0159ely p\u0159i \u00fatoc\u00edch na ukrajinsk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle do 120 km, a u\u0161et\u0159en\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 rakety tak maj\u00ed b\u00fdt pou\u017eity ke Gerasimovu podzimn\u00edmu masivn\u00edmu \u00fatoku \u0420\u041f\u0425\/24.<\/p>\n

U\u017e 12. z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed p\u0159iznal<\/a>\u00a0Volodymyr Kudrycky, b\u00fdval\u00fd \u0159editel ukrajinsk\u00e9 st\u00e1tn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rensk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti, \u017ee Ukrajina v zim\u011b za\u017eije obrovsk\u00e9 v\u00fdpadky dod\u00e1vek elekt\u0159iny, i kdy\u017e Putin u\u017e nebude \u00fato\u010dit na \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny ani na p\u0159enosovou soustavu, a i kdy\u017e v\u0161echny oprav\u00e1rensk\u00e9 pr\u00e1ce prob\u011bhnou podle pl\u00e1n\u016f.\u00a0A\u00a0Herman Halu\u0161\u010denko \u00fa\u0159aduj\u00edc\u00ed ministr energetiky\u00a0varoval<\/a>, \u017ee dal\u0161\u00ed rusk\u00e9 \u00fatoky na p\u0159enosovou s\u00ed\u0165 elekt\u0159iny mohou zp\u016fsobit jadern\u00e9 hav\u00e1rie. Gerasimov\u016fv pl\u00e1n\u00a0\u0420\u041f\u0425\/24 tak evidentn\u011b nah\u00e1n\u00ed v Kyjev\u011b hus\u00ed k\u016f\u017ei, a Soldateska se bude jeho realizaci sna\u017eit za ka\u017edou cenu odvr\u00e1tit.<\/p>\n

Kl\u00ed\u010dem k pochopen\u00ed, pro\u010d pl\u00e1n \u0420\u041f\u0425\/24 m\u016f\u017ee definitivn\u011b rozhodnout v\u00e1lku a donutit Kyjev k rychl\u00e9 kapitulaci, je sou\u010dasn\u00fd stav ukrajinsk\u00e9 energetiky, a tot\u00e1ln\u00ed neschopnost z\u00e1padn\u00edch antiraket odrazit rusk\u00fd raketov\u00fd \u00fatok.<\/p>\n

Jarn\u00ed a letn\u00ed raketov\u00e9 \u00fatoky na ukrajinskou energetiku uk\u00e1zaly, \u017ee modern\u00ed Putinovy st\u0159ely a balistick\u00e9 rakety nemaj\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd probl\u00e9m p\u0159esn\u00fdm dopadem zni\u010dit strojn\u00ed halu kyjevsk\u00e9 vodn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny na Dn\u011bpru, trafostanice, \u010di gener\u00e1tory kyjevsk\u00fdch tepeln\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren. Patrioty a dal\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1padn\u00ed antirakety nahromad\u011bn\u00e9 velen\u00edm Soldatesky tak\u0159ka v\u00fdlu\u010dn\u011b k obran\u011b hlavn\u00edho m\u011bsta si proti rusk\u00fdm st\u0159el\u00e1m a raket\u00e1m ani p\u0159i jednom \u00fatoku ani ne\u0161krtly. Je tak z\u0159ejm\u011b jedno, kolik jich je\u0161t\u011b Zelenskyj ve Washingtonu vy\u017eebr\u00e1, v\u00fdsledek bude v\u017edy podobn\u00fd. T\u00edm sp\u00ed\u0161, \u017ee podle pl\u00e1nu \u0420\u041f\u0425\/24 nemaj\u00ed b\u00fdt hlavn\u00ed \u00fatoky u\u017e prov\u00e1d\u011bny na Kyjev.<\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00e1 elektrick\u00e1 soustava je nyn\u00ed na hran\u011b sv\u00e9 funk\u010dnosti. V zim\u011b 22\/23 a 23\/24 Ukrajinu p\u0159ed kolapsem jej\u00ed energetick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b zachr\u00e1nily pouze nouzov\u00e9 dod\u00e1vky elekt\u0159iny z vodn\u00edch elektr\u00e1ren na Dn\u011bpru a z p\u0159e\u010derp\u00e1vac\u00edch vodn\u00edch elektr\u00e1ren. V okam\u017eic\u00edch, kdy bylo nejh\u016f\u0159, tyto vodn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny zv\u00fd\u0161ily sv\u016fj v\u00fdkon, a spole\u010dn\u011b se zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edmi tepeln\u00fdmi elektr\u00e1rnami udr\u017eely p\u0159enosovou soustavu v chodu. Opakov\u00e1n\u00ed tohoto postupu je v zim\u011b 24\/25 u\u017e vylou\u010deno, proto\u017ee Putin nechal tyto zdroje elekt\u0159iny v leto\u0161n\u00edch jarn\u00edch a letn\u00edch \u00fatoc\u00edch na dlouhou dobu neopraviteln\u011b zni\u010dit.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Pl\u00e1n \u0420\u041f\u0425\/24 je velmi slo\u017eit\u00fd, rozebereme jej proto po hlavn\u00edch \u010d\u00e1stech.\u00a0<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

(1)<\/strong> <\/span>Zbaven\u00ed ve\u0161ker\u00e9ho ukrajinsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm b\u0159ehu Dn\u011bpru dod\u00e1vek elekt\u0159iny. Z\u00e1kladn\u00ed probl\u00e9m ukrajinsk\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 soustavy tkv\u00ed v nutnosti p\u0159ev\u00e1d\u011bt elekt\u0159inu ze z\u00e1padn\u00edho na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed b\u0159eh. P\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou musela Ukrajina takto p\u0159ev\u00e1d\u011bt 1.5 GW, nyn\u00ed u\u017e mus\u00ed 5 GW, a podle ukrajinsk\u00e9 anal\u00fdzy nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 tuto p\u0159enosovou kapacity v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b nijak zv\u00fd\u0161it.<\/p>\n

Gener\u00e1l Gerasimov leto\u0161n\u00edmi c\u00edlen\u00fdmi raketov\u00fdmi \u00fadery zni\u010dil u\u017e tak\u0159ka v\u0161echny tepeln\u00e9, term\u00e1ln\u00ed a v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed vodn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm b\u0159ehu Dn\u011bpru. Velen\u00ed Soldatesky s pomoc\u00ed USA a EU cel\u00e9 l\u00e9to zoufale nav\u00e1\u017eelo do m\u011bst na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm b\u0159ehu Dn\u011bpru mobiln\u00ed gener\u00e1tory elekt\u0159iny. Podle ukrajinsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dn\u00ed anal\u00fdzy v\u0161ak tyto zdroje nebudou m\u00edt v \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b dostatek v\u00fdkonu, aby v\u00fdpadek v\u00fdroby elekt\u0159iny na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm b\u0159ehu zp\u016fsoben\u00fd Gerasimov\u00fdmi leto\u0161n\u00edmi \u00fatoky n\u011bjak v\u00fdznamn\u011b nahradily. Tyto mobiln\u00ed gener\u00e1tory nav\u00edc spot\u0159ebuj\u00ed obrovsk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed ropn\u00e9ho paliva, a z\u00e1sobovat je nebude jednoduch\u00e9, proto\u017ee Gerasimov tak\u00e9 neopomn\u011bl vyp\u00e1lit v\u0161echny rafinerie, a jeho drony \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na v\u0161echny cisterny, kter\u00e9 se k Charkovu, nebo k dal\u0161\u00edm m\u011bst\u016fm p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017e\u00ed. Doprava vlaky tak\u00e9 nebude mo\u017en\u00e1, proto\u017ee Rusov\u00e9 se na n\u011b za\u010dali zam\u011b\u0159ovat. Podle z\u00e1v\u011br\u016f expertn\u00ed anal\u00fdzy bude letos v zim\u011b na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm b\u0159ehu situace s dod\u00e1vkami elekt\u0159iny d\u011bsiv\u00e1. Podle pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9ho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e Gerasimov drony a st\u0159elami zni\u010d\u00ed hlavn\u00ed p\u0159evodn\u00ed uzly, kter\u00fdmi se elekt\u0159ina p\u0159ev\u00e1d\u00ed ze z\u00e1padn\u00edho na v\u00fdchodn\u00ed b\u0159eh, a cel\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed od\u0159\u00edzne ode v\u0161ech dod\u00e1vek elekt\u0159iny. Cel\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 p\u0159enosov\u00e1 s\u00ed\u0165 na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm b\u0159ehu se zhrout\u00ed. Bez elekt\u0159iny p\u0159estane v\u0161e fungovat, domy ve m\u011bstech zmrznou, nebude \u010d\u00edm topit, sv\u00edtit a zbytek pr\u016fmyslu se zhrout\u00ed. Ukrajinci se sice nyn\u00ed sna\u017e\u00ed opev\u0148ovat hlavn\u00ed trafostanice betonem, ale to pom\u016f\u017ee pouze proti dron\u016fm, ne proti raket\u00e1m s st\u0159el\u00e1m. Zima v ukrajinsk\u00fdch m\u011bstech na v\u00fdchodn\u00edm b\u0159ehu Dn\u011bpru se tak m\u00e1 p\u0159ibl\u00ed\u017eit \u017eivotu v obl\u00e9han\u00e9m Leningradu 41\/42. Gerasimov nav\u00edc p\u0159ed p\u00e1r t\u00fddny dostal pod dost\u0159el sv\u00fdch d\u011bl posledn\u00ed velk\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fd \u010dernouheln\u00fd rev\u00edr u Pokrovska, a defacto jej vy\u0159adil z t\u011b\u017eby. (Zdroj zde, hlavn\u011b strana 22, eng.<\/a>)<\/p>\n

(2)<\/strong><\/span> De-elektrizace oblasti Od\u011bsa. Gerasimov p\u0159i leto\u0161n\u00edch raketov\u00fdch \u00fatoc\u00edch zlikvidoval v\u0161echny v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 zdroje elekt\u0159iny a jej\u00ed hlavn\u00ed rozvad\u011b\u010de v oblasti Od\u011bsy. C\u00edlem bylo v\u00e1\u017en\u011b naru\u0161it \u010dinnost p\u0159\u00edstavn\u00edch naklada\u010d\u016f, je\u0159\u00e1b\u016f a za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed pou\u017e\u00edvan\u00fdch k nakl\u00e1dce ukrajinsk\u00e9ho obil\u00ed, a vykl\u00e1dce ropy a hlavn\u011b benz\u00ednu, kter\u00e9 tudy na Ukrajinu proud\u00ed. Gerasimov systematicky letos od\u0159ez\u00e1v\u00e1 i v\u0161echny dal\u0161\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstavy napojen\u00e9 na od\u011bsk\u00fd n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed hub \u2013\u00a0Pivdennyi<\/a>,\u00a0\u010cernomorsk<\/a>,\u00a0Izmajil<\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0Reni<\/a>. Sou\u010dasn\u011b Gerasimov v t\u011bchto p\u0159\u00edstavech c\u00edlen\u011b ni\u010dil syst\u00e9my odpadn\u00edch vod, vod\u00e1rny, rezervo\u00e1ry pitn\u00e9 i pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 vody, i vodovodn\u00ed potrub\u00ed. Nyn\u00ed se p\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1, \u017ee \u00fadery v r\u00e1mci pl\u00e1nu \u0420\u041f\u0425\/24 se Gerasimov pokus\u00ed kompletn\u011b od\u0159\u00edznout Od\u011bsu od dod\u00e1vek elekt\u0159iny, na kter\u00e9 je z\u00e1visl\u00e1. Obdobn\u011b Gerasimov postupuje i proti p\u0159\u00edstav\u016fm Cherson, Nikolajev a vnitrozemsk\u00e9mu metalurgick\u00e9mu klenotu Ukrajiny m\u011bstu Kryvyj Rih.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc se p\u0159ed p\u00e1r dny poprv\u00e9 po dlouh\u00e9 dob\u011b zaktivizovala rusk\u00e1\u00a0opera\u010dn\u00ed skupina Dn\u011bpr gener\u00e1l plukovn\u00edka Michaila Teplinsk\u00e9ho<\/a>\u00a0a za\u010dala najednou vyh\u00e1n\u011bt Ukrajince z ostrov\u016f v doln\u00edm toku Dn\u011bpr, co\u017e cel\u00fd rok nikomu nevadilo. Pro\u010d Teplinskyj najednou za\u010dal utr\u00e1cet drahocenn\u00e9 specialisty n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed p\u011bchoty a v\u00fdsadk\u00e1\u0159\u016f v krvav\u00fdch boj\u00edch o ned\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 ostr\u016fvky, je podivn\u00e9. Teplinskyj je zn\u00e1m, \u017ee se mu p\u0159\u00ed\u010d\u00ed p\u0159ich\u00e1zet o sv\u00e9 elitn\u00ed bojovn\u00edky ve zbyte\u010dn\u00fdch bitv\u00e1ch. Z\u0159ejm\u011b dostal rozkaz, vy\u010distit \u0159eku, aby ji bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 p\u0159ekro\u010dit. Tomu nahr\u00e1v\u00e1 fakt, \u017ee tento t\u00fdden vplulo do aquatoria \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e 16 rusk\u00fdch mal\u00fdch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch lod\u00ed, kter\u00e9 na sv\u00e9 palub\u011b nesou celkem 48 modern\u00edch st\u0159el. Je zn\u00e1mo, \u017ee m\u00ed\u0159\u00ed do oblasti kolem Bosporu, a \u017ee p\u0159ipluli z Azovsk\u00e9ho mo\u0159e. P\u0159esun \u010d\u00e1sti mal\u00fdch \u00fadern\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch lod\u00ed ze Severn\u00ed a Kaspick\u00e9 flotily do \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e je zaj\u00edmav\u00fd fakt, vyvolan\u00fd pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b pot\u0159ebou v\u011bt\u0161\u00edho po\u010dtu nosi\u010d\u016f st\u0159el bl\u00edzko jihov\u00fdchodn\u00ed Ukrajiny. Pokud lodi man\u00e9vruj\u00ed bl\u00edzko tureck\u00fdch vod, Rusov\u00e9 z\u0159ejm\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed, \u017ee jsou mimo nebezpe\u010d\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch dron\u016f a raket. Sekund\u00e1rn\u011b m\u016f\u017ee j\u00edt o pokus vzd\u00e1len\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy ukrajinsk\u00fdch p\u0159\u00edstav\u016f. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, v Od\u011bse m\u00e1 letos v zim\u011b b\u00fdt podle Gerasimova pl\u00e1nu po\u0159\u00e1dn\u011b horko, respektive tedy po\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e1 zima a tma. (Zdroj \u2013 hlavn\u011b zde, t\u0159eba strana 32.<\/a>\u00a0)<\/p>\n

(3)<\/strong><\/span> P\u0159eru\u0161en\u00ed z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny elekt\u0159inou ze zem\u00ed EU. Z Evropy se podle ukrajinsk\u00fdch anal\u00fdz nyn\u00ed p\u0159ev\u00e1d\u00ed na Ukrajinu maxim\u00e1ln\u011b 1.2 GW, ale v ur\u010dit\u00fdch hodin\u00e1ch je maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed dostupn\u00e1 kapacita pouze 609 MW. (Str. 21 zde)<\/a>\u00a0Letos 24. kv\u011btna provedl Gerasimov cvi\u010dn\u00fd \u00fader, jak vy\u0159adit dod\u00e1vky elekt\u0159iny z EU na Ukrajinu. Nejprve salvou 151 dron\u016f, raket a st\u0159el vy\u0159adil na severoz\u00e1padn\u00edm b\u0159ehu Dn\u011bpru z provozu zbyl\u00e9 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 tepeln\u00e9 a vodn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny, a hlavn\u00ed trafostanice veden\u00ed 330kv a 750kv, a potom v n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch dnech ni\u010dil v oblasti z\u00e1padn\u011b a severoz\u00e1padn\u011b od Kyjeva dal\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 transforma\u010dn\u00ed stanice. C\u00edlem \u00fatoku podle expert\u016f nebylo dos\u00e1hnout odpojen\u00ed Ukrajiny od elektrick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b EU, ale zni\u010dit zbyl\u00e9 v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny, a zni\u010dit trafostanice, a donutit Ukrajince, aby je vym\u011bnili za rezervn\u00ed. Ukrajinci toti\u017e v r\u00e1mci modernizace sv\u00e9 elektrick\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b p\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou chyt\u0159e uskladnili star\u00e9 trafostanice, a te\u010f hlavn\u011b d\u00edky nim, n\u00e1sledky rusk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f pom\u011brn\u011b rychle opravuj\u00ed. Le\u010d z\u00e1soby pr\u00fd doch\u00e1zej\u00ed, a souboj mezi rusk\u00fdmi raketami a ukrajinsk\u00fdmi oprav\u00e1\u0159i, se tak ch\u00fdl\u00ed ke sv\u00e9mu rozuzlen\u00ed. Vzhledem ke zn\u00e1m\u00e9mu nedostatku elekt\u0159iny v EU v dob\u011b, kdy nesv\u00edt\u00ed slunce a nefouk\u00e1 v\u00edtr, a kter\u00e1 nast\u00e1v\u00e1 pr\u00e1v\u011b p\u0159es zimu, nen\u00ed velk\u00fd p\u0159edpoklad, \u017ee z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajiny evropskou elekt\u0159inou Gerasimov\u016fv pl\u00e1n zhat\u00ed. T\u00edm sp\u00ed\u0161, \u017ee p\u0159esun mal\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch \u0161kuner\u016f do \u010cern\u00e9ho mo\u0159e nazna\u010duje, odkud a kam mohou jejich st\u0159ely za\u010d\u00edt l\u00e9tat.<\/p>\n

(4)<\/strong> <\/span>Donutit obsluhy ukrajinsk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren, aby jejich reaktory vypnuly. Nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e1 energetika p\u0159e\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 pouze d\u00edky v\u00fdrob\u011b elekt\u0159iny ve 3 zb\u00fdvaj\u00edc\u00edch neobsazen\u00fdch jadern\u00e1ch elektr\u00e1rn\u00e1ch, a jejich nucen\u00e9 odstaven\u00ed, bude znamenat \u00fapln\u00fd rozklad elektrick\u00e9 rozvodn\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b a konec dod\u00e1vek elekt\u0159iny. Od po\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky bylo na celou Ukrajinu importov\u00e1no celkem 354 000 mobiln\u00edch gener\u00e1tor\u016f elekt\u0159iny na benz\u00edn. Jejich celkov\u00fd v\u00fdkon m\u00e1 hodnotu v\u00fdroby pouze jedin\u00e9ho ukrajinsk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho reaktoru VVER-1000, a nikdo si p\u0159itom neum\u00ed ani p\u0159edstavit, jak a \u010d\u00edm se v\u0161echny tyto mobiln\u00ed gener\u00e1tory budou v zim\u011b z\u00e1sobovat. (Zde str 13\/14.<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e1 spot\u0159eba elekt\u0159iny je 18GW a Ukrajina ji zaji\u0161\u0165uje hlavn\u011b ze 3 jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren. Rivne (\u0420) 4 reaktory o v\u00fdkonu 2.8 GW, Jihoukrajinsk\u00e1 (\u041f) 3 rektory o v\u00fdkonu 3 GW, a Chmelnick\u00e1 (\u0425) 2 rektory o v\u00fdkonu 2 GW. Celkov\u00fd v\u00fdkon je podle expert\u016f 7.8 GW. P\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou byl v\u00fdkon 13.835 GW, ale Ukrajina o nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed Z\u00e1poro\u017eskou elektr\u00e1rnu u\u017e p\u0159i\u0161la. Podle expertn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy m\u011bla je\u0161t\u011b v \u00fanoru 2024 Ukrajina celkovou v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacitu, v\u010detn\u011b p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00fdch oprav 31 a\u017e 34 GW, a tato kapacita by j\u00ed pro sou\u010dasn\u00e9 v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9 pot\u0159eby 18 GW sta\u010dila. Jen\u017ee Gerasimov se sna\u017eil, a na ja\u0159e, a v l\u00e9t\u011b\u00a0 vy\u0159adil v\u0161echny velk\u00e9 tepeln\u00e9 a vodn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny z provozu. P\u0159ed v\u00e1lkou m\u011bla Ukrajina maxim\u00e1ln\u00ed kapacitu 28 GW tepeln\u00e9 elekt\u0159iny, 6 vodn\u00ed a 8 sol\u00e1rn\u00ed, v\u011btrn\u00e9 a z biomasy. Kolik bylo vy\u0159azeno v\u00fdkonu produkce vodn\u00edch a tepeln\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren je st\u00e1tn\u00ed tajemstv\u00ed. Ale z v\u00fdpadk\u016f v z\u00e1sobov\u00e1n\u00ed elekt\u0159inou je mo\u017en\u00e9 stanovit, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00fd sou\u010det v\u0161\u00ed elekt\u0159iny dov\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 na Ukrajinu, a produkovan\u00e9 ve v\u0161ech jej\u00edch elektr\u00e1rn\u00e1ch nep\u0159esahuje 18 GW, proto\u017ee jinak by nedoch\u00e1zelo k v\u00fdpadk\u016fm. Z toho plyne, \u017ee 18 \u2013 1 dovoz, 8 jadern\u00e1 a 8 ekologick\u00e9 zdroje, p\u0159edstavuj\u00ed 1 GW zbyl\u00e9 na nezni\u010den\u00e9 tepeln\u00e9 a vodn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny.<\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee nejm\u00e9n\u011b 1\/2 sou\u010dasn\u00e9 elekt\u0159iny na Ukrajin\u011b vyr\u00e1b\u011bj\u00ed pouze 3 jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny, proto\u017ee v\u0161echny ostatn\u00ed velk\u00e9 zdroje ji\u017e Gerasimov zni\u010dil, je z\u0159ejm\u00e9, \u017ee c\u00edlen\u00fdm vy\u0159azen\u00edm n\u011bkolika m\u00e1lo kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fdch trafostanic, a rozvad\u011b\u010d\u016f, kter\u00e9 tuto elekt\u0159inu rozv\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed, Gerasimov snadno od\u0159\u00edzne tyto elektr\u00e1rny jak od dod\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed elekt\u0159iny do Ukrajinsk\u00e9 rozvodn\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b, tak obr\u00e1cen\u011b zamez\u00ed doprav\u011b elekt\u0159iny do t\u011bchto elektr\u00e1ren. Jejich obsluh\u00e1m tak nezbude, ne\u017e reaktory vypnout a spol\u00e9hat se na jejich nutn\u00e9 chlazen\u00ed nouzov\u00fdmi gener\u00e1tory, a\u0165 u\u017e na benz\u00edn, nebo na elekt\u0159inu dopravenou n\u011bjak\u00fdm poln\u00edm veden\u00edm. Z tohoto hlediska je pl\u00e1n\u00a0 \u0420\u041f\u0425-\u0444-360\/24k geni\u00e1ln\u00ed, proto\u017ee Ukrajinsk\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 s\u00ed\u0165 se rozpadne, a v zim\u011b m\u016f\u017ee Ukrajin\u011b chyb\u011bt p\u0159es 1\/2 elekt\u0159iny, a tu je\u0161t\u011b kv\u016fli \u010dast\u00fdm black out nebude jak rozv\u00e1d\u011bt. St\u00e1t bez elekt\u0159iny nem\u016f\u017ee existovat.<\/p>\n

Skute\u010dn\u00fd n\u00e1zev Gerasimova pl\u00e1nu samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nezn\u00e1m, a tak jsem jej pojmenoval \u0420\u041f\u0425-\u0444-360\/24k, a to je slo\u017eenina po\u010d\u00e1te\u010dn\u00edch p\u00edsmen n\u00e1zv\u016f jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren Rivne, Ju\u017enoukrajinsk\u00e1 a Chmelnick\u00e1 v ukrajin\u0161tin\u011b, raket Fateh-360, leto\u0161n\u00edho roku, a p\u00edsmena k pro \u00fadery konven\u010dn\u00ed zbran\u00ed. Pl\u00e1n nen\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 legrace, ale \u0159ada odborn\u00edk\u016f je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dena, \u017ee bude proveden. Tak snad nebudou dal\u0161\u00ed \u010cernobyly, \u017ee ?<\/p>\n

V\u0161em fajn\u0161mekr\u016fm a odborn\u00edk\u016f doporu\u010duji\u00a0t\u011bchto 61 stran v angli\u010dtin\u011b<\/a>,\u00a0ze kter\u00fdch jsem dnes hlavn\u011b \u010derpal. Na odkaze najdete jak mapy, tak grafy, tak fotografie. Upozor\u0148uji,\u00a0\u017ee vznik materi\u00e1lu na odkaze sponzorovalo NATO<\/a>, a ne Putin! P\u0159\u00edjemnou z\u00e1bavu. Komu se anal\u00fdza l\u00edbila, m\u016f\u017ee darem podpo\u0159it dal\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Michael Svato\u0161<\/a><\/p>\n

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Putin\u016fv rozkaz \u0420\u041f\u0425-\u0444-360\/24k! 7. listopadu bu\u010f Kyjev kapituluje, nebo se cel\u00e1 z\u00e1le\u017eitost okam\u017eit\u011b vy\u0159\u00edd\u00ed jednou…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62266,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1042,220,102,2335,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62265"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62265"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62265\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62266"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62265"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62265"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62265"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}