{"id":62031,"date":"2024-09-13T00:36:04","date_gmt":"2024-09-12T22:36:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=62031"},"modified":"2024-09-12T15:30:22","modified_gmt":"2024-09-12T13:30:22","slug":"korybko-karaganovovi-ruska-jaderna-doktrina-by-se-nemela-vztahovat-na-zadny-uzemni-zasah","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/09\/13\/korybko-karaganovovi-ruska-jaderna-doktrina-by-se-nemela-vztahovat-na-zadny-uzemni-zasah\/","title":{"rendered":"Korybko Karaganovovi: Rusk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 doktr\u00edna by se nem\u011bla vztahovat na \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u00fazemn\u00ed z\u00e1sah"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Jeho n\u00e1vrh je dob\u0159e m\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd, ale nerozumn\u00fd z d\u016fvod\u016f, kter\u00e9 budou vysv\u011btleny.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Respektovan\u00fd rusk\u00fd intelektu\u00e1l Sergej Karaganov, kter\u00fd p\u016fsob\u00ed jako \u010destn\u00fd p\u0159edseda vlivn\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 Rady pro zahrani\u010dn\u00ed a obrannou politiku a je tak\u00e9 akademick\u00fdm supervizorem na Vysok\u00e9 \u0161kole ekonomick\u00e9, School of International Economics and Foreign Affairs, op\u011bt mluv\u00ed o atomov\u00fdch zbran\u00edch. Minul\u00fd rok se dostal do celosv\u011btov\u00fdch titulk\u016f pot\u00e9, co navrhl prvn\u00ed jadern\u00fd \u00fader proti Evrop\u011b, na kter\u00fd bylo odpov\u011bzeno\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>, a pr\u00e1v\u011b poskytl rozhovor pro\u00a0Kommersant\u00a0<\/a>o aktualizaci rusk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 doktr\u00edny.<\/p>\n

A\u010dkoli p\u0159edchoz\u00ed hypertextov\u00e1 odpov\u011b\u010f tehdy tento n\u00e1vrh podporovala, po bli\u017e\u0161\u00edm zamy\u0161len\u00ed je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee to Z\u00e1pad neodrad\u00ed z d\u016fvod\u016f, kter\u00e9 budou nyn\u00ed vysv\u011btleny. Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 doktr\u00edna vyjmenov\u00e1v\u00e1 \u010dty\u0159i sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, ve kter\u00fdch lze pou\u017e\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, kter\u00e9 zahrnuj\u00ed ohro\u017een\u00ed existence st\u00e1tu a rozs\u00e1hlou konven\u010dn\u00ed agresi. Karaganov v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee by m\u011bly b\u00fdt pou\u017eity \u201ev p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b jak\u00e9hokoli z\u00e1sahu na na\u0161e \u00fazem\u00ed a na\u0161e ob\u010dany\u201c p\u0159i k\u00fdvnut\u00ed na\u00a0ukrajinskou invazi do Kurska\u00a0<\/a>.<\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e m\u00e1 jist\u011b sv\u016fj pod\u00edl p\u0159\u00edznivc\u016f mezi jest\u0159\u00e1by doma a nejv\u00e1\u0161niv\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi p\u0159\u00edznivci Ruska v zahrani\u010d\u00ed, v\u0161ichni p\u0159ehl\u00ed\u017eej\u00ed n\u011bkolik \u201enepohodln\u00fdch skute\u010dnost\u00ed\u201c. Za prv\u00e9, jak\u00e9koli pronik\u00e1n\u00ed na rusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pova\u017eov\u00e1no za ohro\u017een\u00ed existence st\u00e1tu, pokud chce vrchn\u00ed velitel skute\u010dn\u011b pou\u017e\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b jako odpov\u011b\u010f, ale ten sou\u010dasn\u00fd se neuch\u00fdl\u00ed k radik\u00e1ln\u00edm opat\u0159en\u00edm, jak je vysv\u011btleno\u00a0zde\u00a0<\/a>. Putin v podstat\u011b tvrd\u011b pracoval na tom, aby se vyhnul t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e9 v\u00e1lce \u0161patn\u00fdm v\u00fdpo\u010dtem, a te\u010f nebude nedbal\u00fd.<\/p>\n

Druh\u00fdm bodem je, \u017ee v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9 v\u00fdpo\u010dty jsou ji\u017e z n\u011bjak\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu v platnosti bez ohledu na to, jak se kdokoli c\u00edt\u00ed, proto\u017ee svr\u017een\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed v reakci na to, co vl\u00e1da\u00a0ofici\u00e1ln\u011b pova\u017euje\u00a0<\/a>za teroristick\u00fd \u010din v Kursku, je hrub\u011b nep\u0159im\u011b\u0159en\u00e9. Nejen to, ale nazna\u010dovalo by to, \u017ee Rusko nem\u016f\u017ee konven\u010dn\u011b reagovat na teritori\u00e1ln\u00ed invaze kv\u016fli p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dan\u00e9 slabosti, co\u017e nen\u00ed pravda, proto\u017ee\u00a0pr\u00e1v\u011b zah\u00e1jilo\u00a0<\/a>protiofenz\u00edvu s c\u00edlem vyhnat Ukrajinu z tohoto regionu.<\/p>\n

Za t\u0159et\u00ed, i kdyby byla doktr\u00edna zm\u011bn\u011bna podle Karaganovovy vize, je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by up\u0159esnila c\u00edle a rozsah rusk\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 reakce, proto\u017ee p\u0159esn\u00e9 okolnosti nemohou b\u00fdt p\u0159edem zn\u00e1my. Pokud by byli tv\u016frci rozhodnut\u00ed pr\u00e1vn\u011b nuceni revidovanou doktr\u00ednou pou\u017e\u00edvat jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b bez ohledu na to, co by se stalo, pak by se mohli rozhodnout je shodit na sv\u00e9m vlastn\u00edm \u00fazem\u00ed nebo t\u011bsn\u011b za hranic\u00ed, aby se vyhnuli eskalaci. Toto pozorov\u00e1n\u00ed navazuje na \u010dtvrt\u00fd bod o tom, pro\u010d by jejich ruce nem\u011bly b\u00fdt sv\u00e1zan\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Na\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed jadern\u00e9 reakce na jak\u00e9koli p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed pronik\u00e1n\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee v\u00e9st k tomu, \u017ee protivn\u00edci Ruska zmanipuluj\u00ed Rusko k pou\u017eit\u00ed takov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed p\u0159esn\u011b tak, jak Luka\u0161enko minul\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc varoval, \u017ee se Ukrajina sna\u017eila prov\u00e9st svou invaz\u00ed do Kurska. Bylo\u00a0zde vysv\u011btleno\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee \u201e\u010c\u00edna a Indie by byly pod obrovsk\u00fdm tlakem, aby se distancovaly od Ruska, a to nejen ze strany Z\u00e1padu, ale tak\u00e9 kv\u016fli zd\u00e1n\u00ed, proto\u017ee by necht\u011bly legitimizovat pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed sv\u00fdmi soupe\u0159i.\u201c<\/p>\n

A kone\u010dn\u011b, Rusko ji\u017e m\u016f\u017ee vyu\u017e\u00edvat diskr\u00e9tn\u00ed kan\u00e1ly, aby sd\u011blilo sv\u016fj z\u00e1m\u011br pou\u017e\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b za jin\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed, ne\u017e za jak\u00fdch se ve\u0159ejn\u011b uv\u00e1d\u00ed (nebo podle jejich nov\u00e9 interpretace, jak bylo zm\u00edn\u011bno v prvn\u00edm bod\u011b), tak\u017ee aktualizace jeho jadern\u00e9 doktr\u00edny je do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry pouze cvi\u010den\u00ed m\u011bkk\u00e9 s\u00edly. V\u0161e, co by to ud\u011blalo, by vyslalo siln\u00e9 poselstv\u00ed z\u00e1m\u011bru, i kdy\u017e takov\u00e9, kter\u00e9 svazuje tv\u016frc\u016fm rozhodnut\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b kontraproduktivn\u00edmi zp\u016fsoby a kter\u00e9 by se dalo snadno manipulovat, jak je vysv\u011btleno.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Jeho n\u00e1vrh je dob\u0159e m\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd, ale nerozumn\u00fd z d\u016fvod\u016f, kter\u00e9 budou vysv\u011btleny. Respektovan\u00fd rusk\u00fd intelektu\u00e1l…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":62032,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,7424,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62031"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=62031"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/62031\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/62032"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=62031"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=62031"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=62031"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}