{"id":61958,"date":"2024-09-12T00:40:08","date_gmt":"2024-09-11T22:40:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=61958"},"modified":"2024-09-11T14:59:43","modified_gmt":"2024-09-11T12:59:43","slug":"andrew-korybko-cnn-sdilela-pohled-na-to-jak-spatne-se-vsechno-pro-ukrajinu-stalo","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/09\/12\/andrew-korybko-cnn-sdilela-pohled-na-to-jak-spatne-se-vsechno-pro-ukrajinu-stalo\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: CNN sd\u00edlela pohled na to, jak \u0161patn\u00e9 se v\u0161echno pro Ukrajinu stalo"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou uprost\u0159ed sbli\u017euj\u00edc\u00edch se kriz\u00ed zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou protiofenz\u00edvou, politikou n\u00e1siln\u00e9 brann\u00e9 povinnosti a Zelensk\u00e9ho chybou v Kursku, kter\u00e9 vedou k dal\u0161\u00edm dezerc\u00edm, por\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1m a nakonec k v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu zoufalstv\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

CNN provedla vz\u00e1cn\u00fd \u010din novin\u00e1\u0159sk\u00e9 slu\u017eby svou podrobnou zpr\u00e1vou o tom, jak \u201e\u00a0p\u0159ekonan\u00e1 a p\u0159esile ukrajinsk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da bojuje s n\u00edzkou mor\u00e1lkou a dezerc\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>\u201c. Up\u0159\u00edmn\u011b popisuje \u010detn\u00e9 probl\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 su\u017euj\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly (UAF) v tomto kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9m okam\u017eiku konfliktu, proto\u017ee nad\u00e1le okupuj\u00ed\u00a0\u010d\u00e1st Kurska,\u00a0<\/a>ale st\u00e1le ztr\u00e1cej\u00ed pozice v Donbasu. Jejich p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 p\u0159edstaven\u00edm velitele praporu, kter\u00fd ztratil v\u011bt\u0161inu z asi 800 mu\u017e\u016f pod jeho kontrolou.<\/p>\n

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Tato postava to u\u017e nevydr\u017eela, a tak p\u0159e\u0161la na pohodlnou vojenskou administrativn\u00ed pr\u00e1ci v Kyjev\u011b. On a p\u011bt dal\u0161\u00edch, se kter\u00fdmi CNN mluvila, kdy\u017e zkoumali jejich zpr\u00e1vu, je informovali, \u017ee \u201edezerce a neposlu\u0161nost se st\u00e1vaj\u00ed roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00fdm probl\u00e9mem, zejm\u00e9na mezi nov\u011b naverbovan\u00fdmi voj\u00e1ky\u201c. Slovy jednoho velitele: \u201eNe v\u0161ichni mobilizovan\u00ed voj\u00e1ci opou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed sv\u00e9 pozice, ale v\u011bt\u0161ina\u2026 Bu\u010f opou\u0161t\u011bj\u00ed sv\u00e9 pozice, odm\u00edtaj\u00ed j\u00edt do bitvy, nebo se sna\u017e\u00ed naj\u00edt zp\u016fsob, jak opustit arm\u00e1du.\u201c<\/p>\n

\u010cten\u00e1\u0159 je pak informov\u00e1n, \u017ee tito voj\u00e1ci jsou n\u00e1siln\u011b odvedeni, a tak dopl\u0148uj\u00ed kontext k tomu, pro\u010d dezertuj\u00ed, ale tak\u00e9 tvrdili, \u017ee mor\u00e1ln\u00ed probl\u00e9my za\u010daly infikovat \u0159ady ozbrojen\u00fdch sil b\u011bhem nyn\u00ed vy\u0159e\u0161en\u00e9 slep\u00e9 uli\u010dky ohledn\u011b dal\u0161\u00ed americk\u00e9 pomoci Ukrajin\u011b. I kdy\u017e to pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b hr\u00e1lo roli, CNN n\u00e1padn\u011b opom\u00edj\u00ed zm\u00ednit\u00a0ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou protiofenzivu z lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho l\u00e9ta\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00e1 prok\u00e1zala, \u017ee Ukrajina nen\u00ed schopna dob\u00fdt zp\u011bt sv\u00e9 ztracen\u00e9 zem\u011b navzdory v\u0161emu humbuku a pomoci, kter\u00e9 se j\u00ed do t\u00e9 doby dostalo.<\/p>\n

Po objasn\u011bn\u00ed skute\u010dn\u00e9 p\u0159\u00ed\u010diny klesaj\u00edc\u00ed mor\u00e1lky UAF v minul\u00e9m roce drony u\u010dinily boji\u0161t\u011b nesnesiteln\u011bj\u0161\u00edm ne\u017e d\u0159\u00edve a doba mezi rotacemi se prodlou\u017eila, proto\u017ee n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed voj\u00e1ci prost\u011b nemohou opustit sv\u00e9 pozice, ani\u017e by riskovali sv\u00e9 \u017eije. CNN pot\u00e9 dodala, \u017ee \u201ejen b\u011bhem prvn\u00edch \u010dty\u0159 m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f roku 2024 zah\u00e1jili \u017ealobci trestn\u00ed \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed proti t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 19 000 voj\u00e1k\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed bu\u010f opustili sv\u00e1 m\u00edsta, nebo dezertovali\u201c.<\/p>\n

Tak\u00e9 uznali, \u017ee \u201eJe to ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed a \u2013 s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed \u2013 ne\u00fapln\u00e9 \u010d\u00edslo. N\u011bkolik velitel\u016f \u0159eklo CNN, \u017ee mnoho d\u016fstojn\u00edk\u016f nebude hl\u00e1sit dezerci a neopr\u00e1vn\u011bnou nep\u0159\u00edtomnost, m\u00edsto toho doufaj\u00ed, \u017ee p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed voj\u00e1ky, aby se dobrovoln\u011b vr\u00e1tili, ani\u017e by jim hrozil trest. Tento p\u0159\u00edstup se stal tak b\u011b\u017en\u00fdm, \u017ee Ukrajina zm\u011bnila z\u00e1kon tak, aby dekriminalizoval dezerci a nep\u0159\u00edtomnost bez dovolen\u00e9, pokud se tak stane poprv\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se bitva o Pokrovsk, kter\u00e1 by mohla\u00a0pro Rusko zm\u011bnit hru\u00a0<\/a>na Donbassk\u00e9 front\u011b, riskuje, \u017ee se pro UAF zm\u011bn\u00ed v tot\u00e1ln\u00ed katastrofu, proto\u017ee \u201en\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed velitel\u00e9 odhaduj\u00ed, \u017ee na ka\u017ed\u00e9ho Ukrajince p\u0159ipad\u00e1 10 rusk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f\u201c. Stejn\u011b alarmuj\u00edc\u00ed je tvrzen\u00ed jednoho d\u016fstojn\u00edka, \u017ee \u201edokonce se vyskytly p\u0159\u00edpady, kdy voj\u00e1ci neodhalili \u00fapln\u00fd obraz boji\u0161t\u011b jin\u00fdm jednotk\u00e1m ze strachu, \u017ee by vypadaly \u0161patn\u011b\u201c. Probl\u00e9my s komunikac\u00ed jsou pr\u00fd tak\u00e9 roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 mezi r\u016fzn\u00fdmi kyjevsk\u00fdmi jednotkami i tam.<\/p>\n

Kursk\u00e1 fronta nen\u00ed tak \u0161patn\u00e1, ale mo\u017en\u00e1 nesplnila sv\u016fj politick\u00fd \u00fa\u010del, kter\u00fdm je pos\u00edlen\u00ed mor\u00e1lky mezi UAF, na rozd\u00edl od toho, co tvrdil Zelenskyj. CNN citovala n\u011bkter\u00e9 \u017eenisty, kte\u0159\u00ed si nebyli jisti strategi\u00ed, kter\u00e1 je s t\u00edm spojena, a ptali se, pro\u010d byli p\u0159em\u00edst\u011bni z obrany Pokrovska k invazi do Ruska, kdy\u017e fronta Donbasu za\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 takov\u00e9 pot\u00ed\u017ee, jak ji\u017e bylo uvedeno. D\u00edlo pak kon\u010d\u00ed t\u00edm, \u017ee odborn\u00edk na psychologickou podporu prohl\u00e1s\u00ed, \u017ee u\u017e nebude k nikomu citov\u011b v\u00e1z\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

Kdy\u017e se zamysl\u00edme nad p\u0159ekvapiv\u011b kritickou zpr\u00e1vou CNN, je jasn\u00e9, \u017ee UAF je uprost\u0159ed sbli\u017euj\u00edc\u00edch se kriz\u00ed zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou protiofenz\u00edvou, politikou n\u00e1siln\u00e9 brann\u00e9 povinnosti a Zelensk\u00e9ho chybou v Kursku, kter\u00e9 vedou k dal\u0161\u00edm dezerc\u00edm, por\u00e1\u017ek\u00e1m a nakonec v\u011bt\u0161\u00edmu zoufalstv\u00ed. Za takov\u00fdch okolnost\u00ed m\u016f\u017ee Ukrajina bu\u010f z\u016fstat v kurzu t\u00edm, \u017ee z\u016fstane v Kursku za cenu ztr\u00e1ty v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pozice v Donbasu, st\u00e1hnout se z Kurska a pomoci udr\u017eet Donbass, nebo asymetricky eskalovat.<\/p>\n

Prvn\u00ed dva sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e jsou samoz\u0159ejm\u00e9, zat\u00edmco posledn\u00ed by se mohl t\u00fdkat roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed konfliktu do dal\u0161\u00edch rusk\u00fdch region\u016f,\u00a0B\u011bloruska\u00a0<\/a>a\/nebo\u00a0moldavsk\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/a>od\u0161t\u011bpeneck\u00e9ho regionu\u00a0Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed\u00a0<\/a>, v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9ho po\u0161kozen\u00ed rusk\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren ze zoufalstv\u00ed vyprovokovat\u00a0jadernou reakci\u00a0<\/a>, a\/nebo nebo\u00a0vra\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed \u0161pi\u010dkov\u00fdch Rus\u016f\u00a0<\/a>. Zb\u00fdv\u00e1 jen p\u00e1r m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f, ne\u017e zima znemo\u017en\u00ed bojov\u00e9 operace na obou stran\u00e1ch, po kter\u00fdch bude status quo p\u0159etrv\u00e1vat a\u017e do jara, kdy by jedna nebo ob\u011b strany mohly p\u0159ej\u00edt do \u00fatoku.<\/p>\n

Tato \u010dasov\u00e1 osa dod\u00e1v\u00e1 na nal\u00e9havosti bl\u00ed\u017e\u00edc\u00ed se bitv\u011b o Pokrovsk, kterou chce Rusko vyhr\u00e1t co nejd\u0159\u00edve, aby se protla\u010dilo p\u0159es pole za n\u00ed, dobylo dal\u0161\u00ed \u00fazem\u00ed, ohrozilo Kramatorsk-Slavjanskou aglomeraci z jihu a p\u0159\u00edpadn\u011b se p\u0159ipravilo na p\u0159esun. na m\u011bsto Z\u00e1poro\u017e\u00ed ze severov\u00fdchodu. Pokud Ukrajina vydr\u017e\u00ed do p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edho roku, pak by mohla m\u00edt v\u00edce \u010dasu na vybudov\u00e1n\u00ed dal\u0161\u00ed obrany za Pokrovskem, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by se sn\u00ed\u017eilo tempo postupu Ruska, pokud tam bude na vrcholu.<\/p>\n

I kdyby tam Ukrajina vydr\u017eela alespo\u0148 n\u011bkolik m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f nebo mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b o p\u016fl roku d\u00e9le, probl\u00e9my, o kter\u00fdch se v \u010dl\u00e1nku CNN dotklo, se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b jen zhor\u0161\u00ed, kdy\u017e uvid\u00edme, jak n\u00e1siln\u011bji nasazen\u00e9 jednotky budou vr\u017eeny do toho, co by se mezit\u00edm mohlo st\u00e1t dal\u0161\u00edm. nechvaln\u011b zn\u00e1m\u00fd ml\u00fdnek na maso. Mor\u00e1lka bude pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b nad\u00e1le klesat, zat\u00edmco p\u0159eb\u011bhnut\u00ed by mohlo nar\u016fstat, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e oboj\u00ed by se mohlo spojit, aby ochromilo UAF a vytvo\u0159ilo prostor pro Rusko k vyu\u017eit\u00ed v Pokrovsku nebo jinde na front\u011b.<\/p>\n

Ide\u00e1ln\u00edm \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm pro Kyjev by bylo dos\u00e1hnout p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed pro usnadn\u011bn\u00ed jeho dobrovoln\u00e9ho sta\u017een\u00ed z \u010d\u00e1sti Donbasu (nap\u0159. okol\u00ed Pokrovska) soub\u011b\u017en\u011b s sta\u017een\u00edm z Kurska, co\u017e jsou term\u00edny, kter\u00e9 by Rusko mohlo pou\u017e\u00edvat, proto\u017ee by pokro\u010dilo v n\u011bkter\u00fdch jeho politick\u00fdch a vojensk\u00e9 c\u00edle. Pro Ukrajinu je z hlediska z\u00e1jm\u016f jej\u00edho re\u017eimu lep\u0161\u00ed spo\u0159\u00e1dan\u00e9 sta\u017een\u00ed ne\u017e chaotick\u00e9, pokud Rusko dos\u00e1hne pr\u016flomu, ale Zelenskij a jemu podobn\u00ed nejsou zn\u00e1m\u00ed sv\u00fdmi racion\u00e1ln\u00edmi rozhodnut\u00edmi.<\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b ti, jako\u00a0Indie\u00a0<\/a>a\u00a0Ma\u010farsko\u00a0<\/a>, kte\u0159\u00ed cht\u011bj\u00ed pomoci politicky vy\u0159e\u0161it tento konflikt, by mohli n\u011bco takov\u00e9ho navrhnout, mo\u017en\u00e1 by tak\u00e9 navrhli o\u017eiven\u00ed\u00a0n\u00e1vrhu \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed zprost\u0159edkovan\u00e9ho Katarem z minul\u00e9ho m\u011bs\u00edce\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00fd by se m\u011bl vyh\u00fdbat \u00fatok\u016fm proti energetick\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e toho druh\u00e9ho. Je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by Zelenskij souhlasil, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e je pod vlivem\u00a0uber-jest\u0159\u00e1ba Yermaka\u00a0<\/a>, ale i tak by bylo nejlep\u0161\u00ed neform\u00e1ln\u011b \u0161\u00ed\u0159it n\u011bjakou variantu v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00e9ho n\u00e1vrhu d\u0159\u00edve ne\u017e pozd\u011bji.<\/p>\n

Bez ohledu na dob\u0159e m\u00edn\u011bn\u00e9 n\u00e1vrhy t\u0159et\u00edch stran se zd\u00e1, \u017ee konflikt bude zu\u0159it i v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edm roce bez \u00fapln\u00e9ho vojensk\u00e9ho a\/nebo politick\u00e9ho zhroucen\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e ani jeden z nich nelze vylou\u010dit, i kdy\u017e uv\u00e1\u017e\u00edme, jak \u0161patn\u00e9 se v\u0161e podle posledn\u00edch zpr\u00e1v CNN stalo. zpr\u00e1va. Ukrajina a jej\u00ed anglo-ameri\u010dt\u00ed spojenci \u201edeep state\u201c by tak\u00e9 mohli uspo\u0159\u00e1dat velkou provokaci zam\u011b\u0159enou na zoufalou \u201eeskalaci a\u017e deeskalaci\u201c za v\u00edce sv\u00fdch podm\u00ednek, tak\u017ee pozorovatel\u00e9 by nem\u011bli vylou\u010dit ani tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly jsou uprost\u0159ed sbli\u017euj\u00edc\u00edch se kriz\u00ed zp\u016fsoben\u00fdch ne\u00fasp\u011b\u0161nou protiofenz\u00edvou, politikou n\u00e1siln\u00e9 brann\u00e9 povinnosti…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":53735,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,667,3133,7590,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61958"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61958"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61958\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":61959,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61958\/revisions\/61959"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/53735"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61958"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61958"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61958"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}