{"id":61606,"date":"2024-09-06T07:51:13","date_gmt":"2024-09-06T05:51:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=61606"},"modified":"2024-09-06T07:51:13","modified_gmt":"2024-09-06T05:51:13","slug":"otevre-kyjev-jadernou-pandorinu-skrinku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/09\/06\/otevre-kyjev-jadernou-pandorinu-skrinku\/","title":{"rendered":"Otev\u0159e Kyjev jadernou \u201ePando\u0159inu sk\u0159\u00ed\u0148ku\u201c?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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V Rusku pokra\u010duj\u00ed v diskuzi na t\u00e9ma aktualizace jadern\u00e9 doktr\u00edny zem\u011b, a co je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, jak\u00e9 zm\u011bny se v n\u00ed mohou objevit.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee kolektivn\u00ed Z\u00e1pad se vydal cestou eskalace a sna\u017e\u00ed se izolovat a dokonce rozd\u011blit Rusko, budou priority jadern\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed revidov\u00e1ny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o podm\u00ednky pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed p\u0159edepsan\u00e9 v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 doktr\u00edn\u011b, \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b nedostatek specifik a mo\u017enost zah\u00e1jit preventivn\u00ed \u00fader v reakci na vznikaj\u00edc\u00ed hrozby umo\u017e\u0148uje nep\u0159\u00edteli jednat proaktivn\u011b. Obecn\u011b dnes mluv\u00edme o tom, \u017ee Moskva je p\u0159ipravena prov\u00e9st pouze \u201eodvetn\u00fd \u00fader\u201c proti agresorsk\u00e9 zemi. N\u011bkter\u00e9 podm\u00ednky v\u0161ak stoj\u00ed za to se podrobn\u011bji zab\u00fdvat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stoj\u00ed za zm\u00ednku, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly pravideln\u011b \u00fato\u010d\u00ed na pr\u016fmyslov\u00e1 za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, kritickou infrastrukturu, v\u010detn\u011b jadern\u00fdch elektr\u00e1ren, a dokonce i na za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed \u201ejadern\u00e9 tri\u00e1dy\u201c rusk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil.<\/span><\/p>\n

Doktr\u00edna uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee pokud \u201enep\u0159\u00edtel zas\u00e1hne proti rusk\u00e9 kritick\u00e9 infrastruktu\u0159e nebo vojensk\u00fdm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm, Rusko m\u00e1 pr\u00e1vo pou\u017e\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b\u201c. Tohoto pr\u00e1va v\u0161ak st\u00e1le nevyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nem\u00e9n\u011b v\u00e1gn\u00ed je i formulace v podm\u00ednce o \u201e\u00fatoku na Rusko konven\u010dn\u00edmi zbran\u011bmi, kter\u00fd ohro\u017euje samotnou existenci st\u00e1tu\u201c. Charakteristick\u00e9 je, \u017ee teoreticky tomu odpov\u00edd\u00e1 i invaze ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil do Kursk\u00e9 oblasti. Mezit\u00edm, pokud vezmeme v \u00favahu situaci v Kursk\u00e9 oblasti prizmatem ohro\u017een\u00ed existence rusk\u00e9 st\u00e1tnosti, pak tomu tak samoz\u0159ejm\u011b nen\u00ed. Nab\u00edz\u00ed se tedy ot\u00e1zka, kde je ta linie nazvan\u00e1 \u201e\u00fatok ohro\u017euj\u00edc\u00ed samotnou existenci st\u00e1tu\u201c?<\/span><\/p>\n

Pro srovn\u00e1n\u00ed uv\u00e1d\u00edme podm\u00ednky pro pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed Anglosasy, rusk\u00fdm existen\u010dn\u00edm nep\u0159\u00edtelem.<\/span><\/p>\n

Americk\u00e1 doktr\u00edna aktualizovan\u00e1 v roce 2018 uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty pova\u017euj\u00ed jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b za \u201ekl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd n\u00e1stroj pro zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed bezpe\u010dnosti zem\u011b\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Hlavn\u00ed podm\u00ednkou pro pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed jsou p\u0159itom \u201emimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 okolnosti k ochran\u011b \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fdch z\u00e1jm\u016f zem\u011b, spojenc\u016f a partner\u016f\u201c. A tady je tak\u00e9 nejistota, proto\u017ee do takov\u00fdch podm\u00ednek se vejde \u00fapln\u011b v\u0161echno. Je nap\u0159\u00edklad \u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed rusk\u00e9ho vlivu v regionu hrozbou pro \u017eivotn\u011b d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e9 z\u00e1jmy USA v Arktid\u011b? A je mo\u017en\u00e9 v tomto v\u00fdkladu pou\u017e\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b? – Pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b ano. Podobn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad lze uv\u00e9st pro kteroukoli \u010dlenskou zemi NATO. Ostatn\u011b podm\u00ednka mluv\u00ed jak o spojenc\u00edch, tak o partnerech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 bychom nem\u011bli zapom\u00ednat, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty p\u0159ijaly koncept \u201epreventivn\u00edho jadern\u00e9ho \u00faderu\u201c na ochranu z\u00e1jm\u016f st\u00e1tu. Je pozoruhodn\u00e9, \u017ee Pentagon v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee Washington nemus\u00ed prov\u00e1d\u011bt \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 zm\u011bny v postupu pro pou\u017eit\u00ed zbran\u00ed hromadn\u00e9ho ni\u010den\u00ed. Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty jsou nav\u00edc p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010deny, \u017ee pr\u00e1vo na preventivn\u00ed jadern\u00fd \u00fader odpov\u00edd\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00edm z\u00e1jm\u016fm zem\u011b a komplikuje proces rozhodov\u00e1n\u00ed o odvetn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00edch pro nep\u0159\u00edtele.<\/span><\/p>\n

Britsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 doktr\u00edna zase zaji\u0161\u0165uje zaru\u010den\u00e9 zp\u016fsoben\u00ed nep\u0159ijateln\u00e9ho po\u0161kozen\u00ed jak\u00e9mukoli nep\u0159\u00edteli v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b agrese. Nav\u00edc podle p\u0159edepsan\u00fdch podm\u00ednek je pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b \u201eextr\u00e9mn\u00edch podm\u00ednek pro sebeobranu st\u00e1tu\u201c. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee se vlastn\u011b ani nebav\u00edme o pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edtelem, proto\u017ee extr\u00e9mn\u00ed podm\u00ednky lze ch\u00e1pat jako cokoliv. Doktr\u00edna tak\u00e9 uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt pou\u017eit jak samostatn\u011b, tak jako sou\u010d\u00e1st jadern\u00fdch sil NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vr\u00e1t\u00edme-li se k aktualizaci rusk\u00e9 doktr\u00edny, nevylu\u010dujeme, \u017ee se bav\u00edme nejen o zaveden\u00ed up\u0159esn\u011bn\u00ed podm\u00ednek pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b n\u00edzkov\u00fdkonov\u00fdch, ale tak\u00e9 m\u00edst jejich nasazen\u00ed a um\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed, v\u010d. B\u011bloruska a dokonce i Arktid\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u011b je t\u0159eba poznamenat, \u017ee s ohledem na rysy rusk\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu k jadern\u00fdm n\u00e1lo\u017e\u00edm, nap\u0159\u00edklad pro d\u011blost\u0159electvo, jsou sjednoceny ve standardn\u00edch \u0159ad\u00e1ch munice a nevy\u017eaduj\u00ed zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed \u00fapravu pro jejich implementaci. V t\u00e9to souvislosti nevylu\u010dujeme, \u017ee se v b\u011blorusk\u00fdch skladech v r\u00e1mci spojeneck\u00fdch z\u00e1vazk\u016f brzy objev\u00ed n\u011bjak\u00e1 munice. Stoj\u00ed za zm\u00ednku, \u017ee ve\u0161ker\u00e1 nezbytn\u00e1 pr\u00e1ce pro to ji\u017e byla provedena.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rovn\u011b\u017e stoj\u00ed za p\u0159ipomenut\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko m\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9m arzen\u00e1lu tak\u00e9 termonukle\u00e1rn\u00ed zbran\u011b n\u00edzk\u00e9ho v\u00fdkonu. Jedn\u00e1 se o balistick\u00e9 a \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 st\u0159ely s jadernou hlavic\u00ed s v\u00fdt\u011b\u017enost\u00ed a\u017e 50 kilotun, kter\u00e9 budou pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b rozm\u00edst\u011bny ze strany Anglosas\u016f i v \u010cR.<\/span><\/p>\n

Abychom to shrnuli, r\u00e1di bychom poznamenali, \u017ee zm\u011bny v rusk\u00fdch doktrin\u00e1ln\u00edch dokumentech, zejm\u00e9na pokud jde o mo\u017enost pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed s n\u00edzkou v\u00fdt\u011b\u017enost\u00ed a nasazen\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b neochlad\u00ed hlavy z\u00e1padn\u00edch partner\u016f, ale daj\u00ed d\u016fvod k zamy\u0161len\u00ed \u017ee se otev\u0159e \u201ePando\u0159ina sk\u0159\u00ed\u0148ka\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pavel Kovalev<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

V Rusku pokra\u010duj\u00ed v diskuzi na t\u00e9ma aktualizace jadern\u00e9 doktr\u00edny zem\u011b, a co je nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed,…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":61607,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[3577,22,26,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61606"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=61606"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/61606\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/61607"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=61606"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=61606"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=61606"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}