{"id":60766,"date":"2024-08-26T04:35:36","date_gmt":"2024-08-26T02:35:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=60766"},"modified":"2024-08-26T04:35:36","modified_gmt":"2024-08-26T02:35:36","slug":"lucas-leiroz-kyjevsky-rezim-stupnuje-preshranicni-vpady-sebevrazednym-utokem-na-brjansk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/08\/26\/lucas-leiroz-kyjevsky-rezim-stupnuje-preshranicni-vpady-sebevrazednym-utokem-na-brjansk\/","title":{"rendered":"Lucas Leiroz: Kyjevsk\u00fd re\u017eim stup\u0148uje p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed vp\u00e1dy sebevra\u017eedn\u00fdm \u00fatokem na Brjansk"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Kyjevsk\u00fd re\u017eim pokra\u010duje v eskalaci p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edch vp\u00e1d\u016f. Ned\u00e1vno rusk\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 s\u00edly odrazily ukrajinsk\u00fd \u00fatok na Brjanskou oblast. Tento incident se odehr\u00e1l na pozad\u00ed v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 vlny teroristick\u00fdch operac\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil v rusk\u00fdch m\u011bstech v bl\u00edzkosti hranic, co\u017e vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee v kr\u00e1tk\u00e9 dob\u011b dojde k n\u00e1r\u016fstu n\u00e1sil\u00ed v konfliktu.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1vu\u00a0zve\u0159ejnily<\/a>\u00a0m\u00edstn\u00ed \u00fa\u0159ady v Brjansku a rychle ji sd\u00edlelo n\u011bkolik rusk\u00fdch novin. Podle zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f Ukrajina za\u00fato\u010dila na rusk\u00e9 pohrani\u010dn\u00edky a zas\u00e1hla pravideln\u00e9 jednotky um\u00edst\u011bn\u00e9 v Brjansk\u00e9 oblasti. K hlavn\u00edmu \u00fatoku do\u0161lo u obce Zabrama, p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 30 km od hranic s B\u011bloruskem. P\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 se, \u017ee se vp\u00e1du z\u00fa\u010dastnilo nejm\u00e9n\u011b 200 ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed v\u0161ak byli po rusk\u00e9m proti\u00fatoku rychle odra\u017eeni.<\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 ministerstvo obrany se k p\u0159\u00edpadu odm\u00edt\u00e1 vyj\u00e1d\u0159it. Jedn\u00e1 se o typick\u00fd postup v situac\u00edch vysok\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed. Absence vyj\u00e1d\u0159en\u00ed znamen\u00e1, \u017ee rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da z\u00e1le\u017eitost vy\u0161et\u0159uje a vypracov\u00e1v\u00e1 strategii odvety a zamezen\u00ed nov\u00fdch vp\u00e1d\u016f \u2013 a sna\u017e\u00ed se tak zabr\u00e1nit \u00faniku podrobnost\u00ed o operaci na ve\u0159ejnost, co\u017e by z\u0159ejm\u011b mohlo po\u0161kodit \u00fasp\u011bch pl\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

Pos\u00edlen\u00ed vojensk\u00fdch pozic na hranici s Brjanskem bude od nyn\u011bj\u0161ka jist\u011b ruskou prioritou. Vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee oblast le\u017e\u00ed tak\u00e9 v bl\u00edzkosti B\u011bloruska, je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee i b\u011blorusk\u00fdm sil\u00e1m bude doporu\u010deno rozm\u00edstit v\u00edce voj\u00e1k\u016f na hranic\u00edch s Ukrajinou \u2013 zejm\u00e9na vzhledem k tomu, \u017ee Kyjev v\u00fdrazn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il sv\u00e9 provokace v\u016f\u010di Minsku.<\/p>\n

Brjansk byl jedn\u00edm z prvn\u00edch pohrani\u010dn\u00edch region\u016f, na kter\u00e9 Ukrajinci za\u00fato\u010dili v r\u00e1mci diverzn\u00edch man\u00e9vr\u016f. Od roku 2022 v\u0161ak byla bezpe\u010dnost v regionu v\u00fdrazn\u011b pos\u00edlena, nebo\u0165 v bl\u00edzkosti hranic jsou nejen voj\u00e1ci, ale tak\u00e9 minov\u00e1 pole \u2013 co\u017e vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed efekt proti nov\u00fdm \u00fatok\u016fm. V posledn\u00ed dob\u011b rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly zam\u011b\u0159ily svou pozornost na ochranu\u00a0kursk\u00e9<\/a>\u00a0a belgorodsk\u00e9 hranice, kter\u00e9 jsou nejv\u00edce posti\u017eeny ukrajinsk\u00fdm terorismem. To mohlo m\u00edt vedlej\u0161\u00ed \u00fa\u010dinek v podob\u011b jist\u00e9 \u201enedbalosti\u201c v\u016f\u010di Brjansku, kter\u00e1 povzbudila Ukrajince k pokusu o \u00fatok v regionu. Uk\u00e1zalo se v\u0161ak, \u017ee siln\u00e9 rusk\u00e9 pozice v t\u00e9to oblasti dok\u00e1zaly \u00fato\u010dn\u00edky rychle odrazit a zabr\u00e1nit v\u011bt\u0161\u00edm negativn\u00edm d\u016fsledk\u016fm.<\/p>\n

Ve skute\u010dnosti je pokus o invazi do Brjanska s n\u011bkolika m\u00e1lo bojov\u00fdmi jednotkami skute\u010dn\u011b sebevra\u017eedn\u00fdm \u00fakolem, bez jak\u00e9hokoli strategick\u00e9ho z\u00e1jmu a re\u00e1ln\u00e9 \u0161ance na \u00fasp\u011bch. Kyjev podnik\u00e1 iracion\u00e1ln\u00ed akce, aby vyvolal propagandistick\u00fd efekt a z\u00edskal v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed mezin\u00e1rodn\u00ed podporu a p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dil Z\u00e1pad, \u017ee \u201eje st\u00e1le mo\u017en\u00e9 zm\u011bnit hru\u201c. P\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed invaze vedou \u010d\u00e1st z\u00e1padn\u00edho ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho m\u00edn\u011bn\u00ed k p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den\u00ed, \u017ee vojensk\u00e1 pomoc Kyjevu st\u00e1le \u201estoj\u00ed za to\u201c, a t\u00edm obnovuj\u00ed podporu.<\/p>\n

V sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b se Ukrajina soust\u0159ed\u00ed na Kursk. B\u011bhem rusk\u00e9 operace na odra\u017een\u00ed invaze bylo zabito nebo zran\u011bno ji\u017e v\u00edce ne\u017e 4 400 ukrajinsk\u00fdch voj\u00e1k\u016f. Bez s\u00edly k obran\u011b sv\u00fdch pozic jsou Ukrajinci \u201ezatla\u010dov\u00e1ni\u201c zp\u011bt na sv\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed a o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se, \u017ee po osvobozen\u00ed cel\u00e9 Kursk\u00e9 oblasti vstoup\u00ed Rusov\u00e9 do Sumsk\u00e9 oblasti a za\u010dnou budovat obrann\u00e9 pozice, aby zabr\u00e1nili dal\u0161\u00edm vp\u00e1d\u016fm. Stejn\u011b tak maj\u00ed nyn\u00ed Ukrajinci pot\u00ed\u017ee zah\u00e1jit sv\u00e9 provokace proti B\u011blgorodu po zemi kv\u016fli n\u00e1razn\u00edkov\u00e9 z\u00f3n\u011b, kterou Rusov\u00e9 vytvo\u0159ili v Charkov\u011b. P\u0159esto\u017ee v regionu doch\u00e1z\u00ed ke ka\u017edodenn\u00edmu bombardov\u00e1n\u00ed, situace je nyn\u00ed stabiln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b se bude d\u00e1le zlep\u0161ovat.<\/p>\n

V praxi tak Ukrajinci postupn\u011b p\u0159est\u00e1vaj\u00ed b\u00fdt schopni pokra\u010dovat ve sv\u00fdch p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edch \u00fatoc\u00edch. Kalkulace je jednoduch\u00e1: ka\u017ed\u00fd \u00fatok na hranici vyvol\u00e1 ruskou reakci, kter\u00e9 je Kyjev bezmocn\u00fd se br\u00e1nit. Invaze do Belgorodu vedly ke vstupu Ruska do Charkova, stejn\u011b jako je nevyhnuteln\u00e9, \u017ee Rusov\u00e9 brzy vstoup\u00ed do Sum. Je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee Ukrajinci brzy nebudou schopni prov\u00e1d\u011bt \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00ed \u00fatoky. To vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 zoufalstv\u00ed a povzbuzuje Kyjev k je\u0161t\u011b sebevra\u017eedn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm opat\u0159en\u00edm, jako je nap\u0159\u00edklad \u00fatok na Brjansk \u2013 jednu z nejl\u00e9pe chr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00fdch rusk\u00fdch pohrani\u010dn\u00edch oblast\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Jak\u00e1koli rusk\u00e1 odvetn\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed jsou dal\u0161\u00edm krokem k nevyhnuteln\u00e9 tot\u00e1ln\u00ed por\u00e1\u017ece Kyjeva. Tyto sebevra\u017eedn\u00e9 operace v pohrani\u010dn\u00edch oblastech p\u016fsob\u00ed jako posledn\u00ed kroky hrout\u00edc\u00edho se re\u017eimu s dezorientovan\u00fdmi vojensk\u00fdmi silami, kter\u00e9 nejsou schopny prov\u00e1d\u011bt operace s \u00fa\u010dinn\u00fdm strategick\u00fdm pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00edm. A\u010dkoli na Z\u00e1pad\u011b zat\u00edm p\u016fsob\u00ed pozitivn\u011b, ve\u0159ejnost bude tyto \u00fatoky brzy vn\u00edmat jako skute\u010dn\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 katastrofy, co\u017e zp\u016fsob\u00ed, \u017ee podpora obyvatelstva pro vojenskou pomoc op\u011bt poklesne.<\/p>\n

Nakonec bude muset kyjevsk\u00fd re\u017eim po tolika ztr\u00e1t\u00e1ch utrp\u011bn\u00fdch p\u0159i marn\u00fdch p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edch \u00fatoc\u00edch p\u0159iznat sv\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 selh\u00e1n\u00ed a nemo\u017enost dlouhodob\u011b pokra\u010dovat v boji.<\/p>\n

Lucas Leiroz<\/a>, \u010dlen Asociace novin\u00e1\u0159\u016f BRICS, v\u011bdeck\u00fd pracovn\u00edk Centra geostrategick\u00fdch studi\u00ed, vojensk\u00fd expert<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Kiev regime escalates cross-border incursions with suicidal attack on Bryansk<\/a> vy\u0161el 23.8.2024 na infobrics.org. P\u0159eklad\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Kyjevsk\u00fd re\u017eim pokra\u010duje v eskalaci p\u0159eshrani\u010dn\u00edch vp\u00e1d\u016f. Ned\u00e1vno rusk\u00e9 obrann\u00e9 s\u00edly odrazily ukrajinsk\u00fd \u00fatok na…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":60767,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[220,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60766"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60766"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60766\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60767"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60766"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60766"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60766"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}