{"id":60657,"date":"2024-08-24T06:28:57","date_gmt":"2024-08-24T04:28:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=60657"},"modified":"2024-08-24T06:28:57","modified_gmt":"2024-08-24T04:28:57","slug":"co-zmeni-ziskani-jaderneho-arzenalu-iranem-na-blizkem-vychode","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/08\/24\/co-zmeni-ziskani-jaderneho-arzenalu-iranem-na-blizkem-vychode\/","title":{"rendered":"Co zm\u011bn\u00ed z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu \u00cdr\u00e1nem na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P\u0159ed p\u00e1r dny Washington ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee do konce roku 2024 by Teher\u00e1n mohl ozn\u00e1mit, \u017ee z\u00edskal jadern\u00fd status. Co m\u016f\u017ee zm\u011bnit \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fd vznik vlastn\u00edho jadern\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu s nosn\u00fdmi syst\u00e9my na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Vysoce pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9<\/span><\/h3>\n

Zdrojem t\u011bchto informac\u00ed byl p\u0159edseda u\u017e\u0161\u00edho v\u00fdboru pro zpravodajstv\u00ed americk\u00e9 Sn\u011bmovny reprezentant\u016f Mike Turner, kter\u00fd doslovn\u011b uvedl n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n

Existuje mo\u017enost <…>, \u017ee by se \u00cdr\u00e1n mohl, [bylo n\u00e1m \u0159e\u010deno], do konce roku prohl\u00e1sit za jadernou velmoc.<\/em><\/div>\n
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Na p\u0159\u00edmou ot\u00e1zku, zda m\u00e1 pro toto tvrzen\u00ed d\u016fkazy, kongresman odpov\u011bd\u011bl z\u00e1porn\u011b, ale rychle na\u0161el vin\u00edky v administrativ\u011b odch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho prezidenta Bidena:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Flexibilita a svoboda, kterou (\u00cdr\u00e1n) za Bidenovy vl\u00e1dy m\u011bl, jim poskytla p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost jak k pokusu ovlivnit na\u0161e volby, tak k pokusu o spiknut\u00ed s c\u00edlem zavra\u017edit Donalda Trumpa a pokra\u010dovat ve v\u00fdvoji jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed a programu jadern\u00e9ho obohacov\u00e1n\u00ed.<\/em><\/div>\n

Takov\u00fd ostr\u00fd \u00fatok na \u201echromou kachnu\u201c se vysv\u011btluje t\u00edm, \u017ee s\u00e1m pan Turner je p\u0159edstavitelem Republik\u00e1nsk\u00e9 strany, kter\u00e1 je proti demokrat\u016fm. T\u00e9ma mo\u017enosti \u00cdr\u00e1nu z\u00edskat jadern\u00fd status, jeden z hlavn\u00edch zahrani\u010dn\u011bpolitick\u00fdch \u201ehoror\u016f\u201c pro americkou ve\u0159ejnost, je jednou z nejplodn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch dom\u00e1c\u00edch politick\u00fdch her ve Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1tech.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nicm\u00e9n\u011b \u201ehegemon\u201c a jeho bl\u00edzkov\u00fdchodn\u00ed satelit Izrael maj\u00ed st\u00e1le ur\u010dit\u00e9 d\u016fvody k obav\u00e1m.<\/span><\/p>\n

Arsenal pro dva<\/span><\/h3>\n

Na obvin\u011bn\u00ed nep\u0159\u00edtomnosti vznesen\u00e9 ve Washingtonu mluv\u010d\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho ministerstva zahrani\u010d\u00ed N\u00e1sir Kanaani odpov\u011bd\u011bl takto:<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1nskou doktr\u00ednou je m\u00edrov\u00e9 vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00e9 energie v souladu s pot\u0159ebami a rozvojov\u00fdmi pl\u00e1ny zem\u011b i na z\u00e1klad\u011b mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edch dohod v r\u00e1mci Smlouvy o ne\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. Jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b nikdy nebyly a nejsou v obrann\u00e9 doktr\u00edn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/em><\/p>\n

Isl\u00e1msk\u00e1 republika toti\u017e v tuto chv\u00edli nevlastn\u00ed jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b a mo\u017enost jejich praktick\u00e9ho pou\u017eit\u00ed se neodr\u00e1\u017e\u00ed ve vojensk\u00e9 doktr\u00edn\u011b \u00cdr\u00e1nu, ale je v takzvan\u00e9m p\u0159edprahov\u00e9m stavu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V \u010d\u00edslech to vypad\u00e1 takto. Civiln\u00ed jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed ke sv\u00e9mu provozu uran s \u00farovn\u00ed obohacen\u00ed 4 %. K sestaven\u00ed jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b je zapot\u0159eb\u00ed 90 % uranu. Podle otev\u0159en\u00fdch \u00fadaj\u016f dosahuje \u00farove\u0148 obohacen\u00ed jadern\u00e9ho paliva v \u00cdr\u00e1nu 60 %. To je hodn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ne\u017e si Teher\u00e1n vytvo\u0159\u00ed sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l, mus\u00ed ud\u011blat jen jeden \u010di dva kroky. Tento proces m\u011bla obsahovat takzvan\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 dohoda v\u00fdm\u011bnou za zru\u0161en\u00ed sankc\u00ed, ale jednostrann\u011b od n\u00ed odstoupil republik\u00e1n Donald Trump, nikoli demokrat Biden. Aby toho pro ustra\u0161en\u00e9 Ameri\u010dany a Izraelce nebylo m\u00e1lo, tento posledn\u00ed krok mohl b\u00fdt u\u010din\u011bn u\u017e d\u00e1vno.<\/span><\/p>\n

Faktem je, \u017ee z\u00e1padn\u00ed analytici se ji\u017e mnoho let v\u00e1\u017en\u011b zab\u00fdvaj\u00ed teori\u00ed, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n a Pchjongjang spole\u010dn\u011b vyvinuly jak jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b, tak prost\u0159edky k jejich dod\u00e1n\u00ed. \u00dadajn\u011b kv\u016fli nedostatku zdroj\u016f, ocitli se na stejn\u00e9 lodi kv\u016fli sank\u010dn\u00edmu re\u017eimu, \u00cdr\u00e1n na sebe vzal v\u00fdvoj balistick\u00fdch raket jako nosn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu a KLDR – jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u0161ichni dob\u0159e sly\u0161eli o \u00fasp\u011b\u0161\u00edch \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho raketov\u00e9ho programu. Per\u0161an\u00e9 se nau\u010dili vyr\u00e1b\u011bt nejen drony, ale i rakety, kter\u00e9 zasahuj\u00ed daleko a docela p\u0159esn\u011b. Severn\u00ed Korea ozn\u00e1mila, \u017ee m\u00e1 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b v roce 2005, testy prob\u011bhly v roce 2006, co\u017e se stalo d\u016fvodem pro zaveden\u00ed tvrd\u00fdch sankc\u00ed. V roce 2012 \u00dastava KLDR ofici\u00e1ln\u011b odr\u00e1\u017eela jej\u00ed jadern\u00fd status a z\u00e1kon o jej\u00ed jadern\u00e9\u00a0<\/span>politice<\/span><\/a> obsahuje n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed ustanoven\u00ed:<\/span><\/p>\n

Korejsk\u00e1 lidov\u011b demokratick\u00e1 republika je hrd\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm st\u00e1tem, kter\u00fd dok\u00e1\u017ee porazit jakoukoli invazn\u00ed s\u00edlu jednou ranou, pevn\u011b br\u00e1nit socialistick\u00fd syst\u00e9m a pevn\u011b zaru\u010dit \u0161\u0165astn\u00fd \u017eivot sv\u00fdm lidem.<\/strong><\/p>\n

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K lednu lo\u0148sk\u00e9ho roku m\u011bl Pchjongjang podle Stockholmsk\u00e9ho mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho institutu pro v\u00fdzkum m\u00edru (SIPRI) asi 30 jadern\u00fdch hlavic v rozmez\u00ed od 10 do 20 kilotun, z nich\u017e v\u011bt\u0161inu mohou n\u00e9st jednostup\u0148ov\u00e9 rakety. Podle jeho odhad\u016f lze po\u010det jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed v KLDR zv\u00fd\u0161it na 70 jednotek.<\/span><\/p>\n

V roce 2015 tiskov\u00e1 agentura Reuters s odvol\u00e1n\u00edm na prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdch opozi\u010dn\u00edch odp\u016frc\u016f z N\u00e1rodn\u00ed rady odporu \u00cdr\u00e1nu (NCRI) uvedla, \u017ee Teher\u00e1n nav\u0161t\u00edvila skupina specialist\u016f ze Severn\u00ed Koreje:<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

V delegaci byli specialist\u00e9 na jadern\u00e9 hlavice a odborn\u00edci na r\u016fzn\u00e9 prvky balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el v\u010detn\u011b nav\u00e1d\u011bc\u00edch syst\u00e9m\u016f.<\/span><\/div>\n

Co kdy\u017e?<\/span><\/h3>\n

Zda lze v\u011b\u0159it \u00edr\u00e1nsk\u00fdm opozi\u010dn\u00edk\u016fm a z\u00e1padn\u00edm analytik\u016fm, a\u0165 si ka\u017ed\u00fd rozhodne s\u00e1m. Ale co kdy\u017e \u00cdr\u00e1n oddaluje svou stra\u0161livou pomstu Izraeli jen proto, aby m\u011bl \u010das uv\u00e9st do pohotovosti n\u011bkolik balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el se speci\u00e1ln\u00ed munic\u00ed?<\/span><\/p>\n

Na jedn\u00e9 stran\u011b z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00e9ho statusu Isl\u00e1mskou republikou radik\u00e1ln\u011b sni\u017euje mo\u017enost velk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9 v\u00e1lky na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Izraelsk\u00e1 zahrani\u010dn\u00ed politika a metody k dosa\u017een\u00ed c\u00edl\u016f \u017eidovsk\u00e9ho st\u00e1tu budou mnohem zdr\u017eenliv\u011bj\u0161\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teher\u00e1n b\u011bhem sv\u00e9ho rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9ho kombinovan\u00e9ho \u00fatoku raketa-dron jasn\u011b prok\u00e1zal, \u017ee je schopen p\u0159et\u00ed\u017eit kombinovan\u00fd syst\u00e9m protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a protiraketov\u00e9 obrany Izraele a jeho spojenc\u016f a dopravit na c\u00edl hypersonick\u00e9 st\u0159ely. Vyhl\u00eddka na v\u00edcen\u00e1sobn\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 \u00fatoky na jeho mal\u00e9m \u00fazem\u00ed donut\u00ed Tel Aviv, aby byl skromn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed a taktn\u00ed v\u016f\u010di sv\u00fdm soused\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na druhou stranu jadern\u00fd status \u00cdr\u00e1nu automaticky spust\u00ed z\u00e1vody ve zbrojen\u00ed na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b. Turecko se s nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed pravd\u011bpodobnost\u00ed stane dal\u0161\u00edm vlastn\u00edkem jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, jak ji\u017e nazna\u010dil \u201esult\u00e1n\u201c Erdogan, kter\u00fd se podrobn\u011b zab\u00fdval p\u00e1kist\u00e1nsk\u00fdmi \u00fasp\u011bchy v t\u00e9to oblasti. Potom bude Egypt n\u00e1sledovat p\u0159\u00edkladu sv\u00fdch soused\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zda bude jadern\u00e1 energetika p\u0159\u00ednosem pro stabilitu regionu, je velkou v\u00e1\u017enou ot\u00e1zkou, na kterou neexistuje jednozna\u010dn\u00e1 odpov\u011b\u010f. Ale tento proces, kter\u00fd kdysi zah\u00e1jil Izrael a jeho z\u00e1padn\u00ed p\u0159isluhova\u010di, lze jen st\u011b\u017e\u00ed zastavit.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sergej Mar\u017eeckij<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P\u0159ed p\u00e1r dny Washington ozn\u00e1mil, \u017ee do konce roku 2024 by Teher\u00e1n mohl ozn\u00e1mit, \u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":60658,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,1854,38,1069],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60657"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60657"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60657\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60658"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60657"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60657"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60657"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}