{"id":60615,"date":"2024-08-24T00:42:09","date_gmt":"2024-08-23T22:42:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=60615"},"modified":"2024-08-23T11:44:30","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T09:44:30","slug":"naklady-na-kursk","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/08\/24\/naklady-na-kursk\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u00e1klady na Kursk"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Odv\u00e1\u017en\u00fd a p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd vp\u00e1d p\u0159es hranice do Kursk\u00e9 oblasti v Rusku z\u00edskal Ukrajin\u011b do\u010dasn\u00e9 vlastnictv\u00ed n\u011bkolika rusk\u00fdch vesnic a n\u011bkolik set \u010dtvere\u010dn\u00edch mil rusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed. Ale strategicky levn\u00e1 rusk\u00e1 p\u016fda mohla b\u00fdt koupena za velmi drahou cenu. Ukrajinsk\u00fdm ozbrojen\u00fdm sil\u00e1m se poda\u0159il bleskov\u00fd postup p\u0159es z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti nechr\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed. Ale toto \u00fazem\u00ed je nyn\u00ed br\u00e1n\u011bno a zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee postup ji\u017e byl zpomalen. A i kdy\u017e se zd\u00e1, \u017ee ztratila dynamiku daleko za sv\u00fdmi c\u00edli, Ukrajina mo\u017en\u00e1 bude muset st\u00e1le zaplatit plnou cenu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozhodnut\u00ed Ukrajiny p\u0159ev\u00e9st v\u00e1lku p\u0159es hranice mohlo b\u00fdt u\u010din\u011bno ze zoufal\u00e9ho zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed, \u017ee v\u00e1lka je prohran\u00e1. Rusk\u00fd postup na Donbas je pomal\u00fd, ale ne\u00faprosn\u00fd. Jde vp\u0159ed za stra\u0161nou cenu ukrajinsk\u00fdch \u017eivot\u016f, vojensk\u00e9ho vybaven\u00ed a munice. Nyn\u00ed ohro\u017euje m\u011bsto Pokrovsk, strategick\u00e9 m\u00edsto, jeho\u017e p\u00e1d by mohl omezit schopnost Ukrajiny z\u00e1sobovat sv\u00e9 s\u00edly na v\u00fdchod\u011b a usnadnit Rusku dobyt\u00ed Donbasu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ukrajinsk\u00fd prezident Volodymyr Zelenskij a jeho vrchn\u00ed velitel Oleksandr Syrskij se rozhodli vz\u00edt nejl\u00e9pe vycvi\u010den\u00e9 a nejl\u00e9pe vybaven\u00e9 jednotky, kter\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly maj\u00ed, a odstranit je z fronty na Donbasu \u2013 kde se vede skute\u010dn\u00e1 v\u00e1lka a kde se nach\u00e1zej\u00ed. jsou existen\u010dn\u011b postr\u00e1d\u00e1ni \u2013 a poslat je do Kurska, aby z\u00edskali \u00fazem\u00ed, o kter\u00e9m si jen m\u00e1lokdo v NATO mysl\u00ed, \u017ee m\u00e1 nad\u011bji dr\u017eet. Jak\u00e1 kalkulace m\u00e1 smysl tohoto strategick\u00e9ho rozhodnut\u00ed, pokud Zelenskij a Syrskij nev\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee konec je bl\u00edzko?<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e1 se po\u010d\u00edtalo s t\u00edm, \u017ee nejlep\u0161\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky by mohly b\u00fdt vysl\u00e1ny na frontu na Donbasu k obran\u011b proti rusk\u00e9 invazi nebo by mohly b\u00fdt posl\u00e1ny do Kurska, aby napadly Rusko. V prvn\u00edm p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by se jim nevyhnuteln\u011b nepoda\u0159ilo zastavit drtiv\u00fd rusk\u00fd postup; ve druh\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b mohou zm\u011bnit fakta na m\u00edst\u011b. V obou sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159\u00edch budou nejlep\u0161\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky pora\u017eeny a jejich z\u00e1padn\u00ed vybaven\u00ed ztraceno, ale v prvn\u00edm budou zabiti, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e nedos\u00e1hnou ni\u010deho jin\u00e9ho ne\u017e kr\u00e1tk\u00e9ho zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00ed por\u00e1\u017eky. Ve druh\u00e9m budou zabiti s nad\u011bj\u00ed, \u017ee pomohou vojensk\u00fdm a politick\u00fdm c\u00edl\u016fm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vojensk\u00fdm c\u00edlem mohlo b\u00fdt vytvo\u0159en\u00ed krize v Kursku, kter\u00e1 by donutila Rusko odklonit jednotky z ukrajinsk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed na rusk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed a uvolnit tlak na donbask\u00e9 front\u011b. Politick\u00fdm c\u00edlem mohlo b\u00fdt zmocnit se rusk\u00e9ho \u00fazem\u00ed, kter\u00e9 by bylo mo\u017en\u00e9 vyjednat zp\u011bt v\u00fdm\u011bnou za okupovan\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 \u00fazem\u00ed, a zlep\u0161it pozici Ukrajiny u jednac\u00edho stolu, u kter\u00e9ho si Ukrajina nyn\u00ed uv\u011bdomuje, \u017ee mus\u00ed zasednout, proto\u017ee u\u017e neexistuje nad\u011bje, \u017ee politick\u00e9 c\u00edle lze z\u00edskat vojensky.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159esto\u017ee Ukrajina n\u011bjakou dobu zva\u017eovala n\u011bkolik mo\u017enost\u00ed, riskantn\u00ed rozhodnut\u00ed mohlo b\u00fdt katalyzov\u00e1no nejen n\u00e1rodn\u00edm zoufalstv\u00edm, ale tak\u00e9 osobn\u00edm zoufalstv\u00edm vrchn\u00edho velitele Ukrajiny. Zdroje obezn\u00e1men\u00e9 s rozhodov\u00e1n\u00edm Syrsk\u00e9ho\u00a0<\/span>\u0159ekly<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0The Economist<\/span><\/i>\u00a0, \u017ee gener\u00e1l \u201ebyl pod tlakem\u201c. Rusko bylo nen\u00e1vratn\u011b v ofenziv\u011b, Ukrajin\u011b doch\u00e1zely zbran\u011b a je\u0161t\u011b v\u00e1\u017en\u011bji i lid\u00e9. Avdiivka padla, rusk\u00e1 fronta postupovala, ukrajinsk\u00e1 fronta se rozpadala a st\u011b\u017eejn\u00ed uzel Pokrovsk byl v ohro\u017een\u00ed. Sly\u0161el dokonce zv\u011bsti, \u017ee \u201ebyl na pokraji propu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Syrsky tedy tajn\u011b stanovil sv\u016fj pl\u00e1n. Ukrajina by napadla Rusko na m\u00edst\u011b, kter\u00e9 bylo m\u00e1lo br\u00e1n\u011bno, proto\u017ee nem\u011blo \u017e\u00e1dnou cenu. Rusko by to ne\u010dekalo. Vysoce vycvi\u010den\u00e9 a dob\u0159e vybaven\u00e9 a podporovan\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 jednotky by rychle postoupily, zmocnily se \u00fazem\u00ed a mo\u017en\u00e1 by dokonce dobyly jadernou elektr\u00e1rnu Kursk. Rusko by bylo nuceno odklonit voj\u00e1ky z Ukrajiny, \u010d\u00edm\u017e by uleh\u010dilo zoufal\u00e9 situaci na Donbasu, a Ukrajina by m\u011bla u jednac\u00edho stolu lep\u0161\u00ed ruku. Rusko by muselo vyjednat p\u016fdu, aby si zajistilo navr\u00e1cen\u00ed sv\u00e9 p\u016fdy a zejm\u00e9na jadern\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny, jej\u00ed\u017e z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed zp\u011bt vojensky by bylo nebezpe\u010dn\u00e9.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ale postup do\u0161el hybnosti daleko p\u0159ed jadernou elektr\u00e1rnou. Rusko se posunulo v obran\u011b, ani\u017e by p\u0159esunulo v\u00fdznamn\u00e9 s\u00edly z Ukrajiny, a Ukrajina nyn\u00ed ztr\u00e1c\u00ed voj\u00e1ky a techniku \u200b\u200bv Rusku stejn\u011b jako na Ukrajin\u011b. Exponovan\u00e9 jednotky, tanky, mobiln\u00ed odpalovac\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed protivzdu\u0161n\u00e9 obrany a z\u00e1sobovac\u00ed veden\u00ed se dostaly pod masivn\u00ed leteck\u00e9 \u00fatoky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud ukrajinsk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva sel\u017ee, velkolep\u00e9 pom\u00edjiv\u00e9 zisky budou st\u00e1t velkou cenu. N\u00e1klady by mohly zahrnovat rychlej\u0161\u00ed a bolestn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1ty na Donbasu, ztr\u00e1tu p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitosti vyjedn\u00e1vat o ukon\u010den\u00ed v\u00e1lky a ztr\u00e1tu d\u016fv\u011bry, kdy\u017e jsou tato jedn\u00e1n\u00ed Ukrajin\u011b vnucena.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nejbezprost\u0159edn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed n\u00e1klady na odklon elitn\u00edch jednotek a z\u00e1padn\u00ed techniky z Donbasu do Kurska p\u0159edstavuje dal\u0161\u00ed zhor\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed a oslabov\u00e1n\u00ed obrany Ukrajiny pod\u00e9l donbask\u00e9 fronty. Rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da vyu\u017e\u00edv\u00e1 tohoto n\u00e1kladn\u00e9ho rozhodnut\u00ed. I kdy\u017e Ukrajina po\u010d\u00edtala s t\u00edm, \u017ee invaze st\u00e1hne rusk\u00e9 jednotky z Donbasu, zat\u00edm se zd\u00e1, \u017ee se tak nestalo. Ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly\u00a0<\/span>tvrd\u00ed<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee \u201erelativn\u011b mal\u00fd\u201c po\u010det rusk\u00fdch sil, kter\u00e9 byly sta\u017eeny z Ukrajiny, \u201e\u00a0<\/span>nen\u00ed dost na to,<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0aby nazna\u010dovalo n\u011bjak\u00e9 rozd\u00edly nebo oslaben\u00ed v…nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00fd prezident Vladimir Putin z\u00e1rove\u0148\u00a0<\/span>\u0159\u00edk\u00e1<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 \u00fato\u010dn\u00e9 operace zdaleka neuvol\u0148uj\u00ed tlak na front\u011b Donbasu, \u201enaopak\u201c, a \u017ee\u00a0vp\u00e1d do Ruska ,\u00a0<\/span>kter\u00fd m\u00e1 daleko k urychlen\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed , jedn\u00e1n\u00ed\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/a>sn\u00ed\u017eil<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ob\u011b tvrzen\u00ed se zdaj\u00ed b\u00fdt pravdiv\u00e1. Ukrajinsk\u00fd gener\u00e1ln\u00ed \u0161t\u00e1b\u00a0<\/span>hl\u00e1s\u00ed<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee po\u010det rusk\u00fdch \u00fatok\u016f v oblasti Pokrovska se od kursk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy zhruba zdvojn\u00e1sobil a \u017ee se\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00fdm dnem\u00a0<\/span>zvy\u0161uj\u00ed<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0. 19. srpna, kdy\u017e rusk\u00e9 s\u00edly postoupily do vzd\u00e1lenosti \u0161esti mil od Pokrovska, Ukrajina\u00a0<\/span>na\u0159\u00eddila evakuaci<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0rodin s d\u011btmi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud jde o vyjedn\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, existuje nejen mo\u017enost, \u017ee by ukrajinsk\u00e1 ofenziva mohla vykolejit budouc\u00ed jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, ale skute\u010dnost, \u017ee ji\u017e existuje.\u00a0<\/span>The Washington Post\u00a0<\/span><\/i>uv\u00e1d\u00ed<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee Rusko i Ukrajina \u201esignalizovaly svou p\u0159ipravenost p\u0159ijmout toto ujedn\u00e1n\u00ed p\u0159ed summitem\u201c v Kataru, kter\u00fd by vid\u011bl, \u017ee ob\u011b strany souhlas\u00ed s ukon\u010den\u00edm \u00fader\u016f na energetickou a energetickou infrastrukturu druh\u00e9 strany. Jedn\u00e1n\u00ed by byla prvn\u00ed od m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f a dohody o obil\u00ed v Istanbulu v prvn\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch v\u00e1lky. Kdy\u017e katarsk\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed \u201ebyla vykolejena p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fdm vp\u00e1dem Ukrajiny do rusk\u00e9ho z\u00e1padn\u00edho Kurska\u201c, zb\u00fdvaly \u201ejen drobn\u00e9 detaily k dopracov\u00e1n\u00ed\u201c. Rusko rozhovory \u00fapln\u011b nezabilo, ale pozastavilo je.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 \u00fadery na ukrajinskou energetickou infrastrukturu sn\u00ed\u017eily moc Ukrajiny o 50 %. Jeden ukrajinsk\u00fd p\u0159edstavitel \u0159ekl, \u017ee Ukrajina m\u00e1 \u201ejednu \u0161anci p\u0159ekonat tuto zimu, a to pokud Rusov\u00e9 nezah\u00e1j\u00ed \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 nov\u00e9 \u00fatoky na rozvodnou s\u00ed\u0165\u201c. Velmi chladn\u00e1 zima by mohla b\u00fdt dal\u0161\u00ed bolestivou cenou ofenz\u00edvy v Kursku.<\/span><\/p>\n

A jako by d\u016fv\u011bra mohla b\u00fdt je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce naru\u0161ena, kone\u010dnou cenou kursk\u00e9 ofenz\u00edvy by mohla b\u00fdt pokra\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed eroze d\u016fv\u011bry. Rusko ji\u017e ned\u016fv\u011b\u0159ovalo m\u00edrov\u00fdm rozhovor\u016fm od\u00a0<\/span>ned\u00e1vn\u00fdch odhalen\u00ed<\/span><\/span><\/a>\u00a0, \u017ee N\u011bmecko, Francie a Ukrajina pr\u00e1v\u011b vyu\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed minsk\u00fd proces z let 2014\u20132015 k ukol\u00e9b\u00e1n\u00ed Ruska k p\u0159\u00edm\u011b\u0159\u00ed s p\u0159\u00edslibem m\u00edrov\u00e9ho urovn\u00e1n\u00ed, aby z\u00edskaly \u010das pro ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly. s\u00edly vybudovat pro vojensk\u00e9 \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed. Tuto ned\u016fv\u011bru nyn\u00ed p\u0159i\u017eivila ofenz\u00edva v Kursku. Ned\u00e1vn\u00e1 prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed Zelensk\u00e9ho o p\u0159ipravenosti Ukrajiny vyjedn\u00e1vat, a dokonce vyjedn\u00e1vat o \u00fazem\u00ed, m\u016f\u017ee Rusko, a\u0165 u\u017e pr\u00e1vem \u010di nepr\u00e1vem, vn\u00edmat jako op\u011btovnou anestezii Ruska sliby m\u00edru p\u0159i p\u0159\u00edprav\u011b na v\u00e1lku. Jak\u00a0uv\u00e1d\u00ed<\/span><\/a><\/span>\u00a0The New York Times<\/span><\/i>\u00a0: \u201eI kdy\u017e Ukrajina signalizovala svou p\u0159ipravenost mluvit, jej\u00ed arm\u00e1da se p\u0159ipravovala na jeden ze sv\u00fdch nejodv\u00e1\u017en\u011bj\u0161\u00edch \u00fatok\u016f od za\u010d\u00e1tku invaze pana Putina v \u00fanoru 2022.\u201c The\u00a0Times<\/i>\u00a0nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee \u201e[p]\u0159ival ukrajinsk\u00fdch \u0159e\u010d\u00ed o m\u00edru mohl \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b poslou\u017eit jako strategick\u00fd podvod, povzbuzuj\u00edc\u00ed rusk\u00e9 veden\u00ed, aby vid\u011blo m\u00edrnost a zklamalo ostra\u017eitost.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

S v\u00fdjimkou n\u00e1hl\u00e9ho zvratu a velkolep\u00e9ho \u00fasp\u011bchu p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed Kursk\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva riziko pom\u00edjiv\u00e9ho zisku za obrovskou cenu. Tyto n\u00e1klady mohou zahrnovat urychlenou por\u00e1\u017eku v Donbasu, sn\u00ed\u017eenou pravd\u011bpodobnost budouc\u00edch jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, ztracenou p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost pro sou\u010dasn\u00e1 jedn\u00e1n\u00ed, velmi chladnou zimu pro Ukrajinu a dal\u0161\u00ed ztr\u00e1tu d\u016fv\u011bry, kter\u00e1 naru\u0161uje \u0161anci na m\u00edr.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od <\/span>Teda Snidera<\/span><\/a><\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00davodn\u00ed fotografie:<\/strong> Kursk, Rusko dne 1. \u0159\u00edjna 2015. Pam\u011btn\u00ed komplex bitvy u Kurska (1943).<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Odv\u00e1\u017en\u00fd a p\u0159ekvapiv\u00fd vp\u00e1d p\u0159es hranice do Kursk\u00e9 oblasti v Rusku z\u00edskal Ukrajin\u011b do\u010dasn\u00e9 vlastnictv\u00ed…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":60616,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,3133,565,26,1000],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60615"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60615"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60615\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60616"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}