{"id":60261,"date":"2024-08-20T00:38:10","date_gmt":"2024-08-19T22:38:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=60261"},"modified":"2024-08-19T14:54:19","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T12:54:19","slug":"usa-jsou-spatne-pripraveny-na-jaderny-souboj-s-cinou","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/08\/20\/usa-jsou-spatne-pripraveny-na-jaderny-souboj-s-cinou\/","title":{"rendered":"USA jsou \u0161patn\u011b p\u0159ipraveny na jadern\u00fd souboj s \u010c\u00ednou"},"content":{"rendered":"
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N\u00e1r\u016fst jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed v \u010c\u00edn\u011b posouv\u00e1 region\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hu sil a signalizuje odklon od doktr\u00edny \u201enepou\u017e\u00edt jako prvn\u00ed\u201c v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b tchajwansk\u00e9 v\u00e1lky<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00ednsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 expanze upozornila na st\u00e1rnouc\u00ed stav americk\u00e9ho jadern\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu a nut\u00ed USA kriticky p\u0159ehodnotit svou jadernou strategii uprost\u0159ed mo\u017en\u00e9ho sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed prahu pro pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed proti Tchaj-wanu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tento m\u011bs\u00edc Centrum pro novou americkou bezpe\u010dnost (CNAS) vydalo zpr\u00e1vu, v n\u00ed\u017e uv\u00e1d\u00ed, \u017ee vyv\u00edjej\u00edc\u00ed se jadern\u00e1 dynamika v indicko-pacifick\u00e9m regionu, poh\u00e1n\u011bn\u00e1 rychlou jadernou modernizac\u00ed \u010c\u00edny, zvy\u0161uje pravd\u011bpodobnost pou\u017eit\u00ed nestrategick\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed v takov\u00e9m konfliktu. .<\/span><\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee jakmile dojde k jadern\u00e9 eskalaci, m\u016f\u017ee doj\u00edt k vz\u00e1jemn\u00fdm taktick\u00fdm jadern\u00fdm konfrontac\u00edm, ani\u017e by to nutn\u011b vedlo k obecn\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 v\u00e1lce, co\u017e je v\u00fdznamn\u00fd odklon od model\u016f zastra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed z dob studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy nazna\u010duj\u00ed, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nejsou dostate\u010dn\u011b vybaveny k tomu, aby se vypo\u0159\u00e1daly s touto novou jadernou realitou, a to i z hlediska doktr\u00edny, schopnost\u00ed a koncepc\u00ed. Studie tak\u00e9 zd\u016fraz\u0148uje strategick\u00fd v\u00fdznam a zranitelnost spojenc\u016f USA v regionu, jako je Japonsko a Austr\u00e1lie, a nazna\u010duje, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna by mohla na tyto aliance za\u00fato\u010dit, aby podkopala roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e9 odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va CNAS doporu\u010duje, aby USA zlep\u0161ily sv\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 schopnosti mezi vedouc\u00edmi p\u0159edstaviteli, pos\u00edlily dialog s \u010c\u00ednou a vyvinuly nov\u00e9 opera\u010dn\u00ed koncepty a schopnosti pro lep\u0161\u00ed integraci konven\u010dn\u00edch a jadern\u00fdch strategi\u00ed. Vyz\u00fdv\u00e1 tak\u00e9 k podrobn\u00e9mu pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed s region\u00e1ln\u00edmi spojenci s c\u00edlem pos\u00edlit odolnost v\u016f\u010di potenci\u00e1ln\u00edmu \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9mu jadern\u00e9mu n\u00e1tlaku.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zpr\u00e1va tak\u00e9 zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee je t\u0159eba, aby Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty p\u0159izp\u016fsobily sv\u00e9 strategick\u00e9 my\u0161len\u00ed a schopnosti, aby \u010delily v\u00fdzv\u00e1m, kter\u00e9 p\u0159edstavuje \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e1 jadern\u00e1 expanze v indicko-pacifick\u00e9m regionu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty maj\u00ed druh\u00fd nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l na sv\u011bt\u011b s 5 044 hlavicemi a proch\u00e1zej\u00ed komplexn\u00edm programem modernizace i p\u0159es zna\u010dn\u00e9 \u00faspory a p\u0159ekro\u010den\u00ed n\u00e1klad\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

V \u010dl\u00e1nku z kv\u011btna 2024 pro Bulletin of Atomic Scientists Hans Kristensen a dal\u0161\u00ed auto\u0159i zmi\u0148uj\u00ed, \u017ee USA maj\u00ed v sou\u010dasnosti asi 3 708 jadern\u00fdch hlavic, z nich\u017e je asi 1 770 rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch a 1 938 v z\u00e1loze. 1 336 vy\u0159azen\u00fdch hlavic \u010dek\u00e1 na demont\u00e1\u017e, zat\u00edmco prob\u00edh\u00e1 moderniza\u010dn\u00ed program na modernizaci v\u0161ech jadern\u00fdch nosi\u010d\u016f.<\/span><\/p>\n

Kristensen a dal\u0161\u00ed poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty prov\u00e1d\u011bj\u00ed komplexn\u00ed program modernizace jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, aby v p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch n\u011bkolika desetilet\u00edch nahradily v\u0161echny st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00ed syst\u00e9my jadern\u00fdch nosi\u010d\u016f aktualizovan\u00fdmi verzemi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Program zahrnuje hlavice ulo\u017een\u00e9 na 24 m\u00edstech v 11 st\u00e1tech USA a p\u011bti evropsk\u00fdch zem\u00edch, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed z\u00e1soby maj\u00ed v Nov\u00e9m Mexiku a Washingtonu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle zpr\u00e1vy Bulletin of Atomic Scientists se navzdory pozastaven\u00ed Ruska zd\u00e1, \u017ee USA dodr\u017euj\u00ed limity nov\u00e9 smlouvy START, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e k b\u0159eznu 2023 bylo hl\u00e1\u0161eno 1 419 rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00fdch hlavic.<\/span><\/p>\n

2022 Nuclear Posture Review zachov\u00e1v\u00e1 pr\u00e1vo pou\u017e\u00edvat jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b za extr\u00e9mn\u00edch okolnost\u00ed a pokra\u010duje v pl\u00e1nech modernizace USA, jako je vy\u0159azen\u00ed gravita\u010dn\u00ed bomby B83-1 a eliminace \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9 st\u0159ely odpalovan\u00e9 z mo\u0159e (SLCM).<\/span><\/p>\n

Kristensen a dal\u0161\u00ed v\u0161ak poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee mezikontinent\u00e1ln\u00ed balistick\u00e9 st\u0159ely Minuteman III maj\u00ed b\u00fdt nahrazeny nov\u00fdmi st\u0159elami LGM-35 Sentinel s harmonogramem rozm\u00edst\u011bn\u00ed a modernizac\u00ed po roce 2039.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edna rychle stav\u00ed nov\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 hlavice a z\u00e1rove\u0148 zav\u00e1d\u00ed nov\u00e9 nosn\u00e9 syst\u00e9my, kter\u00e9 by mohly sn\u00ed\u017eit pr\u00e1h pro pou\u017eit\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed a roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159it jadern\u00e9 mo\u017enosti v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b tchajwansk\u00e9ho konfliktu.<\/span><\/p>\n

V samostatn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1v\u011b pro Bulletin of Atomic Scientists z ledna 2024 Kristensen a dal\u0161\u00ed poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l se v\u00fdrazn\u011b roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159il, co\u017e znamen\u00e1 kritick\u00fd posun v glob\u00e1ln\u00ed strategick\u00e9 dynamice.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podle Kristensena a dal\u0161\u00edch m\u00e1 \u010c\u00edna v sou\u010dasnosti asi 500 jadern\u00fdch hlavic, co\u017e by mohlo do roku 2030 vzr\u016fst a\u017e na 1000. Poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee toto rychl\u00e9 roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed je sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00ed moderniza\u010dn\u00ed kampan\u011b, kter\u00e1 zahrnuje v\u00fdvoj nov\u00fdch raketov\u00fdch sil, balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el odpalovan\u00fdch z ponorek (SLBM) a balistick\u00fdch st\u0159el odpalovan\u00fdch ze vzduchu (ALBM).<\/span><\/p>\n

Kristensen a dal\u0161\u00ed poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee rostouc\u00ed jadern\u00e9 kapacity \u010c\u00edny jsou reakc\u00ed na vn\u00edmanou hrozbu ze strany Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a jejich spojenc\u016f a sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed \u0161ir\u0161\u00edho c\u00edle zem\u011b etablovat se jako glob\u00e1ln\u00ed vojensk\u00e1 mocnost do roku 2035.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm poznamen\u00e1vaj\u00ed, \u017ee pokroky \u010c\u00edny, zejm\u00e9na v technologii raket a v\u00fdrob\u011b hlavic, zpochyb\u0148uj\u00ed dlouhodobou rovnov\u00e1hu sil a vzbuzuj\u00ed obavy z mo\u017en\u00fdch zm\u011bn jadern\u00e9 strategie, v\u010detn\u011b mo\u017enosti odklonu od tradi\u010dn\u00ed \u201ezemsk\u00e9\u201c z\u00e1sady \u201eneprvn\u00edho pou\u017eit\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Poukazuj\u00ed na to, \u017ee rostouc\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed v dob\u011b zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9ho nap\u011bt\u00ed v indicko-pacifick\u00e9m regionu, kde rostouc\u00ed asertivita \u010c\u00edny vedla ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 kontrole ze strany mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho spole\u010denstv\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00e9 pova\u017euj\u00ed jadern\u00e9 ambice \u010c\u00edny za v\u00fdznamnou strategickou hrozbu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gregory Weaver v \u010dl\u00e1nku Atlantick\u00e9 rady z listopadu 2023 p\u00ed\u0161e, \u017ee \u010c\u00edna by mohla pou\u017e\u00edt jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b v konfliktu na Tchaj-wanu, aby odradila USA a jejich spojence od z\u00e1sahu, zabr\u00e1nila americk\u00e9mu n\u00e1tlaku t\u00edm, \u017ee odradila USA od z\u00edsk\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed proti pevninsk\u00e9 \u010c\u00edn\u011b a zabr\u00e1nila Spojen\u00fdm st\u00e1t\u016fm v pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed omezen\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed k obran\u011b Tchaj-wanu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Na druhou stranu, \u0159ekl Weaver, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty by mohly pou\u017e\u00edt sv\u00e9 jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b k odvr\u00e1cen\u00ed \u010d\u00ednsk\u00e9 invaze na Tchaj-wan, zabr\u00e1nit \u010c\u00edn\u011b v pou\u017e\u00edv\u00e1n\u00ed omezen\u00fdch jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed na Tchaj-wan nebo v \u00fatoku na pevninu USA, odradit nejadern\u00fd strategick\u00fd \u00fatok \u010c\u00edny a … odstra\u0161it ruskou agresi a z\u00e1rove\u0148 se zam\u011b\u0159it na tchajwansk\u00fd konflikt.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zat\u00edmco \u010d\u00ednsk\u00fd jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l je st\u00e1le v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e arzen\u00e1l Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f, Lauren Sukinov\u00e1 v \u010dl\u00e1nku Carnegie Endowment for International Peace z \u0159\u00edjna 2023 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee m\u00edt v\u00edce jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed nemus\u00ed nutn\u011b znamenat v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed bezpe\u010dnost nebo strategickou v\u00fdhodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sukin poukazuje na to, \u017ee st\u00e1ty s jadernou p\u0159evahou \u010dasto bojuj\u00ed o dosa\u017een\u00ed lep\u0161\u00edch v\u00fdsledk\u016f v konfliktech, proto\u017ee existence jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed vytv\u00e1\u0159\u00ed dynamiku vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9ho odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed. \u0158\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee p\u0159\u00edtomnost jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, a to i v men\u0161\u00edm mno\u017estv\u00ed, sta\u010d\u00ed k odvr\u00e1cen\u00ed agrese, co\u017e znesnad\u0148uje st\u00e1tu s vynikaj\u00edc\u00edmi jadern\u00fdmi schopnostmi prosadit svou v\u00fdhodu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dod\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee strach ze vz\u00e1jemn\u00e9ho zni\u010den\u00ed znamen\u00e1, \u017ee ani st\u00e1ty s jadernou p\u0159evahou nemohou snadno p\u0159inutit sv\u00e9 protivn\u00edky, proto\u017ee ob\u011b strany uzn\u00e1vaj\u00ed katastrof\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky jadern\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sukin zpochyb\u0148uje tradi\u010dn\u00ed n\u00e1zor, \u017ee roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed jadern\u00fdch arzen\u00e1l\u016f zvy\u0161uje odstra\u0161en\u00ed, a poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee i jadern\u00e1 parita nebo omezen\u00e9 arzen\u00e1ly mohou \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b odradit agresi, co\u017e vyvol\u00e1v\u00e1 ot\u00e1zky o d\u016fvodech z\u00e1vod\u016f v jadern\u00e9m zbrojen\u00ed.<\/span><\/p>\n

V souladu se Sukinov\u00fdmi my\u0161lenkami Frank Miller v \u010dl\u00e1nku pro The Economist z dubna 2024 tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee USA mus\u00ed p\u0159ehodnotit svou jadernou strategii. Miller poznamen\u00e1v\u00e1, \u017ee sou\u010dasn\u00e1 geopolitick\u00e1 krajina, poznamenan\u00e1 ruskou agres\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b a rychlou jadernou expanz\u00ed \u010c\u00edny, stoj\u00ed v ostr\u00e9m kontrastu s dobou, kter\u00e1 p\u0159inesla vznik Nov\u00e9 smlouvy START.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nov\u00e1 smlouva START, jej\u00ed\u017e platnost vypr\u0161\u00ed v roce 2026, podle Millera, kter\u00fd zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 je odstra\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed, nikoli parita, zaost\u00e1v\u00e1 za \u0159e\u0161en\u00edm dne\u0161n\u00edch v\u00fdzev, zejm\u00e9na velk\u00e9ho rusk\u00e9ho arzen\u00e1lu krat\u0161\u00edho dosahu a ne\u00fa\u010dasti \u010c\u00edny.<\/span><\/p>\n

Tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee americk\u00fd jadern\u00fd arzen\u00e1l by m\u011bl b\u00fdt schopen zam\u011b\u0159it se na to, \u010deho si jeho autokrati\u010dt\u00ed odp\u016frci cen\u00ed nejv\u00edce, tedy na byrokratick\u00e9 a podp\u016frn\u00e9 struktury jejich re\u017eim\u016f, konven\u010dn\u00ed a jadern\u00e9 s\u00edly a pr\u016fmysl na podporu v\u00e1lky, aby odradil agresi.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je zast\u00e1ncem komplexn\u00ed smlouvy, kter\u00e1 by zahrnovala v\u0161echny jadern\u00e9 zbran\u011b a umo\u017e\u0148ovala flexibilitu v obecn\u00fdch mez\u00edch, aby bylo zaji\u0161t\u011bno, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty mohou \u00fa\u010dinn\u011b odradit hrozby a udr\u017eet glob\u00e1ln\u00ed stabilitu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od Gabriela Honrady<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

N\u00e1r\u016fst jadern\u00fdch zbran\u00ed v \u010c\u00edn\u011b posouv\u00e1 region\u00e1ln\u00ed rovnov\u00e1hu sil a signalizuje odklon od doktr\u00edny \u201enepou\u017e\u00edt…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":60262,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[30,1652,37],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60261"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60261"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60261\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60262"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60261"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60261"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60261"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}