{"id":60231,"date":"2024-08-19T00:43:16","date_gmt":"2024-08-18T22:43:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=60231"},"modified":"2024-08-18T16:23:33","modified_gmt":"2024-08-18T14:23:33","slug":"jiri-vyvadil-proc-rusko-daleko-predstihuje-usa-nato-ve-vyrobe-zbrani","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/08\/19\/jiri-vyvadil-proc-rusko-daleko-predstihuje-usa-nato-ve-vyrobe-zbrani\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Vyvadil: Pro\u010d Rusko daleko p\u0159edstihuje USA\/NATO ve v\u00fdrob\u011b zbran\u00ed"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

J.V. K realistick\u00e9mu posuzov\u00e1n\u00ed vyhl\u00eddek americk\u00e9 ma\u0161in\u00e9rie na \u00fasp\u011bch na Ukrajin\u011b pat\u0159\u00ed odhad jejich re\u00e1ln\u00fdch schopnost\u00ed p\u0159eb\u00edt rusk\u00e9 mo\u017enosti. Krom\u011b sv\u00fdch v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fdch jest\u0159\u00e1b\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed se mohutn\u011b shroma\u017e\u010fuj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v \u0159ad\u00e1ch demokrat\u016f, existuj\u00ed v St\u00e1tech i mohutn\u00e9 vysoce kvalifikovan\u00e9 nez\u00e1visl\u00e9 t\u00fdmy tvo\u0159en\u00e9 p\u0159edn\u00edmi mnohalet\u00fdmi odborn\u00edky, \u010dasto z \u0159ad b\u00fdval\u00fdch aktivn\u00edch tv\u016frc\u016f politiky, kte\u0159\u00ed bez emoc\u00ed a touhy po senzaci p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed s v\u011bcn\u00fdmi a o to ale v\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi z\u00e1v\u011bry. Uskupen\u00ed Responsible Statecraft (Odpov\u011bdn\u00e9 st\u00e1tnictv\u00ed) pat\u0159\u00ed k tomu nejlep\u0161\u00edmu z nich. A s jeho zpr\u00e1vou, uvedenou v nadpise v\u00e1s chci sezn\u00e1mit pr\u00e1v\u011b nyn\u00ed.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusko skute\u010dn\u011b p\u0159ekon\u00e1v\u00e1 cel\u00e9 NATO a USA, pokud jde o munici, rakety a tanky, p\u0159esto\u017ee m\u00e1 obrann\u00fd rozpo\u010det na rok 2023 ve v\u00fd\u0161i pouh\u00fdch 100 miliard dolar\u016f a HDP ve v\u00fd\u0161i 2 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f. Srovnejte to s kombinovan\u00fdm obrann\u00fdm rozpo\u010dtem USA\/NATO ve v\u00fd\u0161i 1,47 bilionu dolar\u016f a celkov\u00fdm HDP ve v\u00fd\u0161i asi 45 bilion\u016f dolar\u016f.<\/p>\n

Jak je to mo\u017en\u00e9?<\/p>\n

Stru\u010dn\u011b \u0159e\u010deno, Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a spojenci NATO vedou v\u00e1lku, kterou by cht\u011bli vyhr\u00e1t, zat\u00edmco Rusko vede v\u00e1lku, o kter\u00e9 v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee ji mus\u00ed vyhr\u00e1t \u2013 v\u00e1lku existen\u010dn\u00ed. V d\u016fsledku toho je to pro Pentagon a americk\u00e9 dodavatele obrany do zna\u010dn\u00e9 m\u00edry byznys jako obvykle, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e zisky a p\u0159\u00edjmy jsou prim\u00e1rn\u00edm z\u00e1jmem. Jist\u011b, n\u011bkter\u00e9 smlouvy byly\/jsou urychlov\u00e1ny, aby pen\u00edze mohly za\u010d\u00edt proudit rychleji. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b bez skute\u010dn\u00e9 reformy obrany nen\u00ed d\u016fvod se domn\u00edvat, \u017ee dodavatel\u00e9 obrany nebudou pokra\u010dovat ve sv\u00e9 dlouh\u00e9 s\u00e9rii dod\u00e1vek zbra\u0148ov\u00fdch syst\u00e9m\u016f, jako jsou F-35, Ford Class Carrier a Sentinel ICBM, se zpo\u017ed\u011bn\u00edm a za miliardy nav\u00edc, ne\u017e bylo p\u016fvodn\u011b sl\u00edbeno.<\/p>\n

Nejsou to v\u0161ak jen velk\u00e9 komplexn\u00ed programy, kter\u00e9 p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00ed pozd\u011b a p\u0159ekra\u010duj\u00ed rozpo\u010det. Dokonce i n\u011bco tak relativn\u011b jednoduch\u00e9ho, jako je v\u00fdroba ne\u0159\u00edzen\u00fdch d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch gran\u00e1t\u016f, p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed pozd\u011b a p\u0159ekra\u010duje rozpo\u010det.<\/p>\n

Na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2022 nebylo pochyb o tom, \u017ee americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da ji\u017e nev\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee d\u011blost\u0159electvo je pro boji\u0161t\u011b tak z\u00e1sadn\u00ed jako kdysi. Arm\u00e1da demonstrovala tento zp\u016fsob uva\u017eov\u00e1n\u00ed 21. kv\u011btna 2021, jen asi osm m\u011bs\u00edc\u016f p\u0159ed ruskou invaz\u00ed na Ukrajinu, a po\u017e\u00e1dala o povolen\u00ed sn\u00ed\u017eit ro\u010dn\u00ed v\u00fddaje na sv\u00e9 155mm n\u00e1boje na polovinu, \u010d\u00edm\u017e sn\u00ed\u017eila ro\u010dn\u00ed produkci na 75 357 n\u00e1boj\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b, co\u017e je asi 6 200 kus\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b.<\/p>\n

T\u00edm ale p\u0159\u00edb\u011bh nekon\u010d\u00ed. Uk\u00e1zalo se, \u017ee arm\u00e1da st\u00e1la v \u010dele \u00fapadku cel\u00e9ho dodavatelsk\u00e9ho \u0159et\u011bzce americk\u00e9 d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9 munice. Jak v\u00e1\u017en\u00fd je tento pokles, odhaluje vynikaj\u00edc\u00ed investigativn\u00ed \u010dl\u00e1nek agentury Reuters, ve kter\u00e9m se dozv\u00edd\u00e1me, \u017ee americk\u00e1 v\u00fdroba 155mm n\u00e1boj\u016f byla po l\u00e9ta ochromena v\u00fdrobn\u00edmi vadami a bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmi probl\u00e9my.<\/p>\n

Nav\u00edc pl\u00e1ny na nahrazen\u00ed zastaral\u00e9ho americk\u00e9ho d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9ho v\u00fdrobn\u00edho za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed ve Virginii modern\u00edm, mnohem v\u00fdkonn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm se zpozdily o deset let pozd\u011bji, ne\u017e bylo pl\u00e1nov\u00e1no, a z\u00e1rove\u0148 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zdvojn\u00e1sobily sv\u00e9 n\u00e1klady. Jin\u00fdmi slovy, velmi pozd\u011b a v\u00fdrazn\u011b nad r\u00e1mec rozpo\u010dtu.<\/p>\n

Nejznepokojiv\u011bj\u0161\u00edm aspektem toho, jak \u0161patn\u011b americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da a Kongres udr\u017eovaly n\u00e1\u0161 dodavatelsk\u00fd \u0159et\u011bzec d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch gran\u00e1t\u016f, v\u0161ak odhalil intern\u00ed dokument americk\u00e9 arm\u00e1dy z roku 2021, kter\u00fd podrobn\u011b popisuje „zahrani\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1vislost“ na nejm\u00e9n\u011b tuctu chemik\u00e1li\u00ed kritick\u00fdch pro v\u00fdrobu d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch gran\u00e1t\u016f, kter\u00e9 poch\u00e1zej\u00ed z \u010c\u00edny a Indie, zem\u00ed s \u00fazk\u00fdmi obchodn\u00edmi vazbami na Rusko, vypl\u00fdv\u00e1 z vy\u0161et\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed agentury Reuters.<\/p>\n

To v\u0161e p\u0159isp\u00edv\u00e1 k tomu, \u017ee dodavatelsk\u00fd \u0159et\u011bzec d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9 munice je ve velmi \u0161patn\u00e9m stavu, zejm\u00e9na ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed se 438 000 n\u00e1boji m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b, kter\u00e9 mohly americk\u00e9 muni\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1vody vyr\u00e1b\u011bt v roce 1980. Aby se obnovil dodavatelsk\u00fd \u0159et\u011bzec, po\u017e\u00e1dala americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da o 3,1 miliardy dolar\u016f na zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdroby 155mm gran\u00e1t\u016f na 100 000 gran\u00e1t\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b do konce roku 2025. Kongres v\u0161ak tuto \u010d\u00e1stku velkoryse zdvojn\u00e1sobil na 6,414 miliardy dolar\u016f v r\u00e1mci dodate\u010dn\u00e9ho bezpe\u010dnostn\u00edho z\u00e1kona ve v\u00fd\u0161i 95 miliard dolar\u016f, kter\u00fd Biden podepsal 24. dubna.<\/p>\n

Pl\u00e1n arm\u00e1dy vybudovat do konce roku 2025 v\u00fdrobu a\u017e 100 000 n\u00e1boj\u016f m\u011bs\u00ed\u010dn\u011b, tedy 1,2 milionu ro\u010dn\u011b, zn\u00ed docela dob\u0159e. To tempo produkce jsme ale je\u0161t\u011b nevid\u011bli ve skute\u010dnosti a do konce roku 2025 by Ukrajina mohla v\u00e1lku prohr\u00e1t.<\/p>\n

P\u0159esto je dobr\u00e9 m\u00edt na pam\u011bti, \u017ee Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty nejsou jedinou mocnost\u00ed, kter\u00e1 se do t\u00e9to z\u00e1stupn\u00e9 v\u00e1lky proti Rusku zapojuje \u2013 dal\u0161\u00ed zem\u011b tak\u00e9 pracuj\u00ed na tom, aby na Ukrajinu dostaly zoufale pot\u0159ebn\u00e9 d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9 gran\u00e1ty. A nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed muni\u010dn\u00ed zpr\u00e1vou p\u0159ich\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00ed z Evropy je, \u017ee obrann\u00fd gigant Rheinmetall bude d\u00edky kontraktu s n\u011bmeckou arm\u00e1dou v hodnot\u011b 8,5miliardy eur vyr\u00e1b\u011bt a\u017e 700 000 d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch gran\u00e1t\u016f a 10 000 tun prachu ro\u010dn\u011b, po\u010d\u00ednaje rokem 2025.<\/p>\n

Pokud tedy v\u0161e p\u016fjde podle pl\u00e1nu, do konce roku 2025 by USA a jejich spojenci v NATO mohli vyr\u00e1b\u011bt t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 2 miliony n\u00e1boj\u016f r\u00e1\u017ee 155 mm ro\u010dn\u011b. To se zd\u00e1 b\u00fdt m\u00e9n\u011b p\u016fsobiv\u00e9, kdy\u017e si uv\u011bdom\u00edte, \u017ee od za\u010d\u00e1tku v\u00e1lky do dne\u0161ka Rusko ji\u017e zv\u00fd\u0161ilo svou celkovou ro\u010dn\u00ed produkci d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch gran\u00e1t\u016f na t\u0159i miliony n\u00e1boj\u016f.<\/p>\n

To zahrnuje p\u011btin\u00e1sobn\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed v\u00fdroby 152mm gran\u00e1t\u016f, a to ze 400 000 n\u00e1boj\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b v lednu 2022 na dva miliony n\u00e1boj\u016f ro\u010dn\u011b. Krom\u011b toho bylo Rusko podle rusk\u00fdch st\u00e1tn\u00edch zdroj\u016f \u00fadajn\u011b schopno zv\u00fd\u0161it v\u00fdrobu sv\u00fdch 152mm d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch p\u0159esn\u011b nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00fdch n\u00e1boj\u016f Krasnopol-M2 dvacetin\u00e1sobn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Tyto gran\u00e1ty jsou odoln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u016f\u010di zaseknut\u00ed ne\u017e p\u0159esn\u011b nav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00e9 n\u00e1boje M982 Excalibur 155 mm M982 v hodnot\u011b 155 mm, kter\u00e9 USA poskytovaly Ukrajin\u011b a kter\u00e9 byly z velk\u00e9 \u010d\u00e1sti znehodnoceny rusk\u00fdm ru\u0161en\u00edm.<\/p>\n

Nesta\u010d\u00ed v\u0161ak poskytnout d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9 gran\u00e1ty, pot\u0159ebujete tak\u00e9 d\u011blost\u0159electvo k odpalov\u00e1n\u00ed gran\u00e1t\u016f a ukrajinsk\u00e9 d\u011blost\u0159electvo se nejen opot\u0159ebov\u00e1v\u00e1, ale je tak\u00e9 ni\u010deno Ruskem. A dlouho p\u0159edt\u00edm, ne\u017e d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00e9 trubice (hlavn\u011b) zcela sel\u017eou v d\u016fsledku opot\u0159eben\u00ed, za\u010dnou ztr\u00e1cet dost\u0159el a st\u00e1vaj\u00ed se m\u00e9n\u011b p\u0159esn\u00fdmi. Ukrajina i Rusko se mus\u00ed vypo\u0159\u00e1dat s probl\u00e9mem opot\u0159eben\u00ed, tak\u017ee ot\u00e1zkou je, kdo m\u00e1 t\u011b\u017ek\u00fd pr\u016fmysl na v\u00fdrobu d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch tubus\u016f.<\/p>\n

A\u010dkoliv nen\u00ed k dispozici mnoho informac\u00ed o rychlosti v\u00fdroby d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch trubic a hlavn\u00ed, Rusko p\u0159edstihuje v\u00fdrobu zbran\u00ed USA a NATO t\u00edm, \u017ee provozuje sv\u00e9 velk\u00e9 tov\u00e1rny ze sov\u011btsk\u00e9 \u00e9ry 24 hodin denn\u011b, 7 dn\u00ed v t\u00fddnu na v\u00fdrobu munice, vozidel a dal\u0161\u00edch vojensk\u00fdch produkt\u016f. To nazna\u010duje, \u017ee pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b d\u011bl\u00e1 tot\u00e9\u017e, pokud jde o v\u00fdrobu d\u011blost\u0159eleck\u00fdch trubic, stejn\u011b jako v\u00fdrobu zcela nov\u00e9ho d\u011blost\u0159electva.<\/p>\n

Na druhou stranu nen\u00ed pochyb o tom, \u017ee pokud by Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty a jejich spojenci v NATO skute\u010dn\u011b v\u011b\u0159ili, \u017ee jejich existence je ohro\u017eena, mohli by utratit miliardy za zaveden\u00ed mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fdch opat\u0159en\u00ed, kter\u00e1 by jim umo\u017enila p\u0159ekonat Rusko, jeho\u017e v\u00fddaje na obranu a HDP jsou zlomkem kombinovan\u00fdch v\u00fddaj\u016f NATO a USA.<\/p>\n

Takov\u00e1 opat\u0159en\u00ed by v\u0161ak tak\u00e9 vy\u017eadovala naru\u0161en\u00ed status quo v oblasti obrann\u00fdch zak\u00e1zek. Teoreticky by to tedy mohlo b\u00fdt provedeno. Nezd\u00e1 se v\u0161ak, \u017ee by USA a jejich spojenci v NATO sp\u011bchali se zav\u00e1d\u011bn\u00edm rozs\u00e1hl\u00e9 nov\u00e9 pr\u016fmyslov\u00e9 politiky. Mo\u017en\u00e1 je to proto, \u017ee v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee Putin se nechyst\u00e1 prov\u00e9st nevyprovokovan\u00fd \u00fatok podle \u010dl\u00e1nku 5 NATO na zemi NATO a \u017ee demokracie p\u0159e\u017eije bez ohledu na v\u00fdsledek na Ukrajin\u011b.<\/p>\n

V d\u016fsledku toho, i kdy\u017e je rusk\u00e1 hrozba velik\u00e1 pro ospravedln\u011bn\u00ed utr\u00e1cen\u00ed miliard dolar\u016f na dodavatele obrany za \u00fa\u010delem dopln\u011bn\u00ed vy\u010derpan\u00fdch z\u00e1sob zbran\u00ed a munice, jako\u017e i pro n\u00e1kup nov\u00fdch zbran\u00ed, nen\u00ed tak velkou hrozbou, aby ospravedlnila naru\u0161en\u00ed statu quo, kter\u00fd dodavatel\u00e9 obrany vytvo\u0159ili \u2013 statu quo, kter\u00fd ka\u017ed\u00fd rok p\u0159in\u00e1\u0161\u00ed m\u00e9n\u011b muziky za m\u00e1lo pen\u011bz, zat\u00edmco generuje rekordn\u00ed zisky a p\u0159\u00edjmy.<\/p>\n

V ostr\u00e9m kontrastu s t\u00edm bude rusk\u00e9 vojensk\u00e9 posilov\u00e1n\u00ed i nad\u00e1le budov\u00e1n\u00edm arm\u00e1dy zem\u011b, kter\u00e1 v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee vede existen\u010dn\u00ed v\u00e1lku o p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Mike Fredenburg<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Mike Fredenburg p\u00ed\u0161e o obrann\u00e9 politice a politice ji\u017e v\u00edce ne\u017e 30 let, s \u010dl\u00e1nky v mnoha publikac\u00edch v\u010detn\u011b The California Political Review, The San Diego Union Tribune a National Review.<\/p>\n

J.V.<\/strong> Ten \u010dl\u00e1nek je skv\u011bl\u00fd, a to nejen dokonalou znalost\u00ed v\u011bcn\u00e9 problematiky, ale i z\u00e1v\u011bry- \u0159ekl bych politick\u00fdmi, p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v hodnocen\u00ed odli\u0161n\u00e9ho p\u0159\u00edstupu americk\u00e9 i rusk\u00e9 strany k d\u016fvod\u016fm zbrojen\u00ed. Tam, kde jde u Ameri\u010dan\u016f op\u011bt jen o business, tam jde Rus\u016fm o boj za p\u0159e\u017eit\u00ed, a proto autor vid\u00ed pro Rusy jasn\u011b palec nahoru.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Vyvadil<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

J.V. K realistick\u00e9mu posuzov\u00e1n\u00ed vyhl\u00eddek americk\u00e9 ma\u0161in\u00e9rie na \u00fasp\u011bch na Ukrajin\u011b pat\u0159\u00ed odhad jejich re\u00e1ln\u00fdch…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":23521,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,39,22,37,73],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60231"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60231"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60231\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/23521"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60231"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60231"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60231"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}