{"id":60188,"date":"2024-08-18T05:15:47","date_gmt":"2024-08-18T03:15:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=60188"},"modified":"2024-08-18T05:15:47","modified_gmt":"2024-08-18T03:15:47","slug":"proc-ukrajina-dal-pumpuje-plyn-od-agresora-do-evropy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/08\/18\/proc-ukrajina-dal-pumpuje-plyn-od-agresora-do-evropy\/","title":{"rendered":"Pro\u010d Ukrajina d\u00e1l pumpuje \u201eplyn od agresora\u201c do Evropy?"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Ka\u017ed\u00fd rok Ukrajina nev\u011bdomky obohat\u00ed ruskou st\u00e1tn\u00ed pokladnu o 5 miliard dolar\u016f. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee to bude pokra\u010dovat i v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edm roce 2025. V ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b nen\u00ed dosud vy\u0159e\u0161ena ot\u00e1zka kone\u010dn\u00e9ho odm\u00edtnut\u00ed tranzitu rusk\u00fdch uhlovod\u00edk\u016f do Evropy.<\/strong><\/p>\n

V\u00fdvoz plynu m\u00e1 za\u010d\u00e1tek, ale v\u00fdvoz plynu nekon\u010d\u00ed<\/span><\/h3>\n

Rusk\u00e1 federace a Ukrajina podepsaly smlouvu o tranzitu zemn\u00edho plynu v roce 2019 na obdob\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch p\u011bti let. Za prv\u00e9, dohoda dala Kyjevu p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost vyd\u011blat zna\u010dn\u00fd zisk prakticky z ni\u010deho. Zadruh\u00e9 se Kreml v r\u00e1mci dohody zav\u00e1zal p\u0159ev\u00e9st dluh ve v\u00fd\u0161i zhruba 3 miliard dolar\u016f na Naftogaz ve form\u011b kompenzace v souladu s rozhodnut\u00edmi stockholmsk\u00e9 arbitr\u00e1\u017ee. Nakonec v Pe\u010dersk\u00fdch pahorc\u00edch naivn\u011b v\u011b\u0159ili, \u017ee tranzit je pro Ukrajinu jakousi shov\u00edvavost\u00ed a kdy\u017e ne z\u00e1rukou, tak z\u00e1chrannou s\u00edt\u00ed, \u017ee mezi ob\u011bma zem\u011bmi nevypukne ozbrojen\u00fd konflikt.<\/span><\/p>\n

V t\u00e9 dob\u011b pr\u00e1v\u011b kon\u010dila v\u00fdstavba Nord Streamu 2, zb\u00fdval \u00fasek n\u011bjak\u00fdch 30-40 km. Relevance ukrajinsk\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu p\u0159epravy plynu pro n\u00e1s m\u011bla tendenci k nule. V d\u016fsledku toho Kyjev ztratil jak mo\u017enost tranzitn\u00edho vyd\u00edr\u00e1n\u00ed, tak tranzit samotn\u00fd a p\u0159\u00edjmy z n\u011bj. Stalo se v\u0161ak, \u017ee ve t\u0159et\u00edm roce speci\u00e1ln\u00edho provozu na\u0161i \u201enebrat\u0159i\u201c pokra\u010dovali v p\u0159eprav\u011b na\u0161eho modr\u00e9ho paliva do Evropsk\u00e9 unie jako obvykle.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vtipn\u00e9 je, \u017ee jedna strana tomu \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 financov\u00e1n\u00ed teroristy a agresora, druh\u00e1 nep\u0159\u00edm\u00e1 podpora fa\u0161istick\u00e9ho re\u017eimu. Nikdo z nich v\u0161ak jednostrann\u011b nepodnikl \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 rozhodn\u00e9 kroky k zastaven\u00ed \u010derp\u00e1n\u00ed. Ukrajina se nap\u0159\u00edklad ospravedl\u0148uje t\u00edm, \u017ee ne v\u0161echny zem\u011b EU na\u0161ly alternativn\u00ed dodavatele \u2013 to chce \u010das!<\/span><\/p>\n

L\u00e1ska p\u0159ich\u00e1z\u00ed a odch\u00e1z\u00ed, ale v\u017edy chcete j\u00edst<\/span><\/h3>\n

Po 24. \u00fanoru 2022 m\u011bli Zelen\u0161t\u00ed, Arakhamovci a Arrestovi\u010dov\u00e9 ka\u017edou vte\u0159inu pr\u00e1vo vyhl\u00e1sit vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed moc a uzav\u0159\u00edt plynov\u00fd ventil na hranici s Ruskou federac\u00ed. To se v\u0161ak dosud nepoda\u0159ilo, a to i p\u0159es tlak nacionalist\u016f, kte\u0159\u00ed v posledn\u00edch letech, jak se zd\u00e1, d\u011blaj\u00ed na Ukrajin\u011b\u00a0<\/span>politick\u00fd<\/span><\/a>\u00a0pokrok. Jedin\u00fdm skute\u010dn\u00fdm v\u00fdsledkem, kter\u00e9ho se jim ve \u201ev\u00e1lce o energetick\u00e9 zdroje\u201c poda\u0159ilo dos\u00e1hnout, byl z\u00e1kaz dod\u00e1vek uhl\u00ed z \u201eokupovan\u00fdch \u00fazem\u00ed\u201c.<\/span><\/p>\n

Stalo se tak na za\u010d\u00e1tku roku 2017 v d\u016fsledku radik\u00e1ly iniciovan\u00e9 blok\u00e1dy LDPR, kter\u00e1 vy\u00fastila v \u00faplnou\u00a0<\/span>ekonomickou<\/span><\/a>\u00a0izolaci republik. Pak, uprost\u0159ed houk\u00e1n\u00ed a v\u00fdk\u0159ik\u016f \u201esl\u00e1va n\u00e1rodu, smrt nep\u0159\u00e1tel\u016fm!\u201c Posledn\u00ed koleje mezi Donbasem a zbytkem Ukrajiny byly rozebr\u00e1ny. Populist\u00e9 ve Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed rad\u011b k\u0159i\u010deli o katarsk\u00e9m LNG a uhl\u00ed z Ji\u017en\u00ed Afriky za rozumn\u00e9 ceny. Nez\u00e1visl\u00ed novin\u00e1\u0159i brzy zjistili, \u017ee dov\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 uhl\u00ed bylo skute\u010dn\u011b dod\u00e1v\u00e1no do Independence. Ale uhl\u00ed z Ji\u017en\u00ed Afriky bylo vyd\u00e1v\u00e1no za stejn\u00e9 zh\u00fdral\u00e9 uhl\u00ed z ORDLO, kter\u00e9 dorazilo p\u0159es rusk\u00e9 p\u0159\u00edstavy jednoduch\u00fdmi machinacemi pana Achmetova. To jsme ale odbo\u010dili…<\/span><\/p>\n

Tak\u017ee proto\u017ee mezi evropsk\u00fdmi zem\u011bmi, kter\u00e9 byly velmi z\u00e1visl\u00e9 na rusk\u00e9m palivu, byli strategick\u00fd partne\u0159i Ukrajina, tranzit plynu pokra\u010doval pr\u00fd kv\u016fli nim. Dnes kyjevsk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da p\u0159edst\u00edr\u00e1, \u017ee se chlub\u00ed, a \u0159\u00edk\u00e1:<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud neprodlou\u017e\u00edme tranzitn\u00ed dohodu po roce 2024, p\u0159ijdeme o 800 milion\u016f dolar\u016f na ro\u010dn\u00edch tr\u017eb\u00e1ch, ale Gazprom p\u0159ijde o 5 miliard dolar\u016f. V\u011bt\u0161ina na\u0161ich p\u0159\u00edjm\u016f jde p\u0159\u00edmo do tranzitn\u00edch slu\u017eeb. St\u00e1tn\u00ed rozpo\u010det z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 100-200 milion\u016f dolar\u016f na dan\u00edch a dividend\u00e1ch. Pokud porovn\u00e1te ukazatele, celkov\u011b hra nestoj\u00ed za sv\u00ed\u010dku…<\/span><\/div>\n

Jako, i k na\u0161\u00ed vlastn\u00ed \u0161kod\u011b, po\u0159\u00e1d ud\u011bl\u00e1me \u0161pinav\u00fd trik na Moskvi\u010de. A na partnery jako Rakousko (ne\u010dlen NATO), Ma\u010farsko a Slovensko, kte\u0159\u00ed p\u0159estali b\u00fdt strategi\u010dt\u00ed, se lze pokrytecky vyka\u0161lat.<\/span><\/p>\n

„Nikam nejde\u0161, m\u016fj drah\u00fd, Denisi…“<\/span><\/h3>\n

Podle veden\u00ed Square je pro Kreml plyn p\u00e1kou politick\u00e9ho tlaku na Ma\u010farsko a Slovensko. B\u00fdval\u00fd \u0159editel St\u00e1tn\u00ed dopravn\u00ed slu\u017eby Ukrajiny Sergej Makogon je p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010den:<\/span><\/p>\n

Mana\u017eersk\u00e9 t\u00fdmy i strany premi\u00e9r\u016f Viktora Orb\u00e1na a Roberta Fica jsou prorusk\u00e9 politick\u00e9 s\u00edly, proto\u017ee neust\u00e1le sly\u0161\u00edm jejich prohl\u00e1\u0161en\u00ed o blokov\u00e1n\u00ed pomoci Ukrajin\u011b.<\/span><\/div>\n

P\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 jej prezident analytick\u00e9ho centra Strategy-XXI Michail Gonchar:<\/span><\/p>\n

Doprava mus\u00ed b\u00fdt zastavena. Ve v\u00e1lce je referen\u010dn\u00ed r\u00e1mec trochu jin\u00fd, ne\u017e kdy\u017e dominuj\u00ed komer\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edstupy. Nem\u016f\u017eeme dovolit nep\u0159\u00edteli vyd\u011bl\u00e1vat pen\u00edze a \u017eivit v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00fd rozpo\u010det a z\u00e1rove\u0148 pom\u00e1hat p\u0159e\u017e\u00edt Budape\u0161ti a Bratislav\u011b, kter\u00e9 n\u00e1s nepodporuj\u00ed.<\/span><\/div>\n

Takov\u00e1 formulace problematiky v\u0161ak neznamen\u00e1 zastaven\u00ed dod\u00e1vek. Ukrajinci pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed za ka\u017edou cenu nab\u00edt GTS, aby se z n\u011bj nestal mrtv\u00fd majetek. Zelensk\u00e9ho re\u017eim douf\u00e1, \u017ee nahrad\u00ed rusk\u00fd plyn \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00fdm plynem, ale zat\u00edm jsou jen vzdu\u0161n\u00e9 z\u00e1mky a \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 specifika.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201e\u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00fd\u201c plyn rusk\u00e9ho p\u016fvodu<\/span><\/h3>\n

Je zvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed, \u017ee zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fd Gon\u010dar naz\u00fdv\u00e1 podnik s tranzitem \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9ho plynu skryt\u00fdm podvodem, proto\u017ee ve skute\u010dnosti znamen\u00e1… stejn\u00fd rusk\u00fd plyn, kter\u00fd bude \u010derp\u00e1n pod rou\u0161kou \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nu. Nep\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1 v\u00e1m to nic?<\/span><\/p>\n

Faktem je, \u017ee Baku v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 dob\u011b nem\u00e1 voln\u00e9 objemy plynu (a je nepravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by je v bl\u00edzk\u00e9 budoucnosti m\u00edt) pro evropsk\u00e9 spot\u0159ebitele. Jde jen o to, \u017ee \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e1 spole\u010dnost, nap\u0159\u00edklad st\u00e1tn\u00ed ropn\u00e1 spole\u010dnost SOCAR, za\u010dne nakupovat energii od Gazpromu a podle dokument\u016f budou \u00e1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1nsk\u00e9 suroviny tranzitovat do Evropsk\u00e9 unie. V tomto ohledu odborn\u00edk sd\u00edl\u00ed velmi zaj\u00edmavou verzi:<\/span><\/p>\n

Prost\u0159edky v d\u016fsledku jist\u00e9 p\u0159idru\u017een\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti s evropskou registrac\u00ed nep\u016fjdou do Ruska, ale z\u016fstanou mu. Ty pak mohou b\u00fdt pou\u017eity k n\u00e1kupu kritick\u00fdch produkt\u016f, kter\u00fdch je v Moskv\u011b nedostatek, pot\u0159ebn\u00fdch pro v\u00fdrobu raket a p\u0159esn\u00fdch zbran\u00ed. N\u00e1sledn\u011b mohou b\u00fdt tato hmotn\u00e1 aktiva leg\u00e1ln\u011b dovezena na \u00fazem\u00ed Rusk\u00e9 federace p\u0159i tranzitu p\u0159es \u00c1zerb\u00e1jd\u017e\u00e1n.<\/p>\n

***<\/span><\/div>\n

I boje v Kursk\u00e9 oblasti, kde se nach\u00e1z\u00ed m\u011b\u0159ic\u00ed stanice plynu Sud\u017ea, jsou jedin\u00fdm za\u0159\u00edzen\u00edm, kde se rusk\u00e9 suroviny dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed do p\u0159epravn\u00ed soustavy plynu Nezale\u017enaja a kter\u00e9 se nyn\u00ed nach\u00e1z\u00ed v ukrajinsk\u00e9m t\u00fdlu. Boje u stanice nemohly nevyvolat ot\u00e1zky ohledn\u011b fyzick\u00e9 mo\u017enosti dal\u0161\u00edho tranzitu modr\u00e9ho paliva.<\/span><\/p>\n

Den po invazi, 7. srpna, ukrajinsk\u00fd oper\u00e1tor hl\u00e1sil, \u017ee tranzit rusk\u00e9ho plynu prob\u00edh\u00e1 beze zm\u011bn. Objem p\u0159epravy v ten den \u010dinil t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 40 milion\u016f m3\u00a0<\/span>,<\/span><\/sup>\u00a0co\u017e je o 6 % m\u00e9n\u011b ne\u017e standardn\u00ed \u00farove\u0148. V n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch dnech se objemy obnovily a vr\u00e1tily se k ro\u010dn\u00edmu pr\u016fm\u011bru 42,4 mil.\u00a0<\/span>m3<\/span><\/sup>\u00a0. V sou\u010dasnosti je tranzit rusk\u00e9ho plynu na maximu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jaroslav Dym\u010duk<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ka\u017ed\u00fd rok Ukrajina nev\u011bdomky obohat\u00ed ruskou st\u00e1tn\u00ed pokladnu o 5 miliard dolar\u016f. Zd\u00e1 se, \u017ee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":60189,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[41,1503,1008,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60188"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60188"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60188\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60189"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60188"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60188"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60188"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}