{"id":60067,"date":"2024-08-17T00:43:50","date_gmt":"2024-08-16T22:43:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=60067"},"modified":"2024-08-16T14:07:08","modified_gmt":"2024-08-16T12:07:08","slug":"andrew-korybko-budou-obyvatele-zapadu-brzy-pilotovat-ukrajinske-f-16-z-moldavska-k-bojum-proti-rusku","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/08\/17\/andrew-korybko-budou-obyvatele-zapadu-brzy-pilotovat-ukrajinske-f-16-z-moldavska-k-bojum-proti-rusku\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: Budou obyvatel\u00e9 Z\u00e1padu brzy pilotovat ukrajinsk\u00e9 F-16 z Moldavska k boj\u016fm proti Rusku?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 s sebou nese velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Po zpr\u00e1v\u011b\u00a0<\/a>z\u00a0konce minul\u00e9ho m\u011bs\u00edce, \u017ee Ukrajina kone\u010dn\u011b obdr\u017eela n\u011bkter\u00e9 ze sv\u00fdch\u00a0dlouho o\u010dek\u00e1van\u00fdch F-16\u00a0<\/a>, z nich\u017e alespo\u0148 jeden byl\u00a0spat\u0159en\u00a0<\/a>let\u00edc\u00ed nad Od\u011bsou, n\u00e1sledovaly za\u010d\u00e1tkem tohoto t\u00fddne dva souvisej\u00edc\u00ed ud\u00e1losti. Sen\u00e1tor Lindsey Graham b\u011bhem tiskov\u00e9 konference v Kyjev\u011b\u00a0prozradil\u00a0<\/a>, \u017ee Zelenskij chce najmout vyslou\u017eil\u00e9 z\u00e1padn\u00ed piloty, aby l\u00e9tali na F-16, dokud jeho zem\u011b nevycvi\u010d\u00ed dostatek vlastn\u00edch, kr\u00e1tce nato Rusko\u00a0povolalo\u00a0<\/a>moldavsk\u00e9 charg\u00e9 d’affaires uprost\u0159ed zpr\u00e1v, \u017ee budou m\u00edt s\u00eddlo ve sv\u00e9 zemi.<\/p>\n

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Pokud k tomu dojde, pak budou obyvatel\u00e9 Z\u00e1padu brzy pilotovat ukrajinsk\u00e9 F-16 z Moldavska pro bojov\u00e9 lety proti Rusku, v\u010detn\u011b nedalek\u00e9ho Krymu, ale tak\u00e9 mo\u017en\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1sti jeho \u00fazem\u00ed p\u0159ed rokem 2014, jako je\u00a0Kursk\u00e1 oblast\u00a0<\/a>. Tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 s sebou nese velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky. Pro za\u010d\u00e1tek, i kdy\u017e by tito \u017eold\u00e1ci piloti ofici\u00e1ln\u011b nereprezentovali sv\u00e9 zem\u011b, jejich \u00fa\u010dast v konfliktu by Rusko t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b pova\u017eovalo za dal\u0161\u00ed d\u016fkaz toho, \u017ee Z\u00e1pad v\u0161e eskaluje sm\u011brem k p\u0159\u00edm\u00e9mu zapojen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Odlet z Moldavska by byl m\u00e9n\u011b provokativn\u00ed ne\u017e odlet ze zem\u00ed NATO, jako je Polsko nebo Rumunsko, i kdy\u017e by k tomu st\u00e1le mohlo doj\u00edt, pokud tam budou uskladn\u011bny\u00a0<\/a>n\u011bkter\u00e9 ukrajinsk\u00e9 F-16\u00a0. Ani to v\u0161ak st\u00e1le nen\u00ed bez rizika, proto\u017ee Rusko by mohlo Moldavsku odplatit, pokud by n\u011bjak\u00e1 letadla odtamtud podnikla \u00fadery proti jeho \u00fazem\u00ed, v\u010detn\u011b b\u00fdval\u00fdch ukrajinsk\u00fdch zem\u00ed. To by zase mohlo v\u00e9st k\u00a0invazi Moldavska do jeho separatistick\u00e9ho regionu\u00a0<\/a>Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed, kde st\u00e1le s\u00eddl\u00ed rusk\u00e9 jednotky.<\/p>\n

Obnoven\u00ed tohoto zmrazen\u00e9ho konfliktu by se mohlo t\u00fdkat Ukrajiny a\/nebo sousedn\u00edho Rumunska, mezi nimi\u017e je Moldavsko sev\u0159eno. Kyjev hled\u00e1 dal\u0161\u00ed rychl\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed mor\u00e1lky, zat\u00edmco Bukure\u0161\u0165 by mohla vid\u011bt p\u0159\u00edle\u017eitost\u00a0n\u00e1siln\u011b znovu za\u010dlenit sv\u016fj historick\u00fd region\u00a0<\/a>, kter\u00fd se stal nez\u00e1visl\u00fdm st\u00e1tem jen n\u00e1hodou v d\u016fsledku rozpadu SSSR. Pokud se tak stane,\u00a0rusk\u00fdch\u00a0odhadovan\u00fdch 1100 voj\u00e1k\u016f\u00a0<\/a>by mohlo snadno p\u0159ekonat, ale d\u011bdictv\u00ed jeho sou\u010dasn\u00fdch Thermopyl by mohlo b\u00fdt dlouhodob\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 si p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee Rusko odm\u00edtne vyhl\u00e1sit Moldavsku v\u00e1lku v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i, proto\u017ee tlak ve\u0159ejnosti by mohl b\u00fdt nemo\u017en\u00fd odolat, v takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by Moldavsko mohlo b\u00fdt zni\u010deno jako pomsta, pokud by Rusko kone\u010dn\u011b p\u0159estalo bojovat s\u00a0jednou rukou sv\u00e1zanou za z\u00e1dy z politick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f,\u00a0<\/a>jako je tomu nyn\u00ed. je. Bez ohledu na to, co se v tomto sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i stane cel\u00e9 Ukrajin\u011b nebo jej\u00ed \u010d\u00e1sti, st\u00e1le by existovalo riziko vypuknut\u00ed hork\u00e9 v\u00e1lky s NATO, pokud\u00a0by b\u011bhem rusk\u00e9 odvety byla zabita\u00a0n\u011bkter\u00e1 z jej\u00edch sil v Moldavsku.<\/a><\/p>\n

Vzhledem k obrovsk\u00e9mu mno\u017estv\u00ed toho, co je v s\u00e1zce, co\u017e by mohlo zahrnovat n\u00e1silnou reinkorporaci do Rumunska navzdory p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed v\u011bt\u0161iny spole\u010dnosti\u00a0podle spolehliv\u00e9ho pr\u016fzkumu\u00a0<\/a>ze srpna 2023, stejn\u011b jako riziko, \u017ee t\u0159et\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 v\u00e1lka bude vyvol\u00e1na nespr\u00e1vn\u00fdm v\u00fdpo\u010dtem, jak bylo vysv\u011btleno, Moldavan\u00e9 by mohli protestovat proti po\u0159\u00e1d\u00e1n\u00ed F-16. \u201e\u00a0Putin nazna\u010dil mo\u017enost nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch protest\u016f proti elit\u011b v Moldavsku\u00a0<\/a>\u201c loni na podzim, tak\u017ee jeho p\u0159edpov\u011b\u010f by se mohla brzy splnit, pokud se potvrd\u00ed, \u017ee Moldavsko bude skute\u010dn\u011b slou\u017eit jako protirusk\u00e1 leteck\u00e1 z\u00e1kladna.<\/p>\n

Z\u00e1rove\u0148 v\u017edy existuje mo\u017enost, \u017ee se Rusko zdr\u017euje ve prosp\u011bch \u201ev\u011bt\u0161\u00edho dobra\u201c, jak se to dosud d\u011blo, p\u0159esto\u017ee ji\u017e bylo p\u0159ekro\u010deno tolik jin\u00fdch vn\u00edman\u00fdch \u010derven\u00fdch \u010dar. D\u016fvodem by mohlo b\u00fdt, \u017ee nem\u00e1 cenu prom\u011bnit Podn\u011bst\u0159\u00ed v novodob\u00e9 Thermopyly, nato\u017e riskovat horkou v\u00e1lku s NATO, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b pokud je Rusko schopno se t\u00e9to nov\u00e9 hrozb\u011b ubr\u00e1nit. Zat\u00edmco n\u011bkte\u0159\u00ed by si mohli oddechnout, jin\u00ed se budou ob\u00e1vat, \u017ee by to mohlo povzbudit Z\u00e1pad, aby p\u0159ekro\u010dil je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce \u010derven\u00fdch \u010dar.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tento sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159 s sebou nese velmi v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 potenci\u00e1ln\u00ed d\u016fsledky Po zpr\u00e1v\u011b\u00a0z\u00a0konce minul\u00e9ho m\u011bs\u00edce, \u017ee Ukrajina…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":28662,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,4978,1506,39,736,22],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60067"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60067"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60067\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":60068,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60067\/revisions\/60068"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28662"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60067"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60067"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60067"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}