{"id":60058,"date":"2024-08-17T00:38:34","date_gmt":"2024-08-16T22:38:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=60058"},"modified":"2024-08-16T13:29:50","modified_gmt":"2024-08-16T11:29:50","slug":"krok-pred-nejvetsim-ropnym-sokem-v-historii","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/08\/17\/krok-pred-nejvetsim-ropnym-sokem-v-historii\/","title":{"rendered":"Krok p\u0159ed nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edm ropn\u00fdm \u0161okem v historii"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je \u00fazk\u00fd p\u00e1s vody, kter\u00fd spojuje Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv se zbytkem sv\u011bta.<\/span><\/p>\n

Je to nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00ed energetick\u00fd koridor na sv\u011bt\u011b a neexistuje \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 alternativn\u00ed trasa.<\/span><\/p>\n

P\u011bt z 10 nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edch zem\u00ed produkuj\u00edc\u00edch ropu \u2013 Sa\u00fadsk\u00e1 Ar\u00e1bie, \u00cdr\u00e1n, Ir\u00e1k, Spojen\u00e9 arabsk\u00e9 emir\u00e1ty a Kuvajt \u2013 soused\u00ed s Persk\u00fdm z\u00e1livem, stejn\u011b jako Katar, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00fd v\u00fdvozce zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu (LNG). Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je jejich jedinou n\u00e1mo\u0159n\u00ed cestou na otev\u0159en\u00e9 mo\u0159e… a na sv\u011btov\u00e9 trhy.<\/span><\/p>\n

V neju\u017e\u0161\u00edm m\u00edst\u011b je prostor dostupn\u00fd pro lodn\u00ed dopravu \u0161irok\u00fd pouze 3,2 kilometru.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Podle americk\u00e9ho \u00fa\u0159adu pro energetick\u00e9 informace proch\u00e1z\u00ed \u00fa\u017einou ka\u017ed\u00fd den v\u00edce ne\u017e 40 % celosv\u011btov\u00e9ho v\u00fdvozu ropy (kolem 21 milion\u016f barel\u016f).<\/span><\/p>\n

To je ropa v hodnot\u011b v\u00edce ne\u017e 1,5 miliardy dolar\u016f denn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nemluv\u011b o nesm\u00edrn\u00e9m mno\u017estv\u00ed zkapaln\u011bn\u00e9ho zemn\u00edho plynu \u2013 asi 33 % sv\u011btov\u00e9ho denn\u00edho v\u00fdvozu LNG \u2013 a dal\u0161\u00edho zbo\u017e\u00ed proch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edho pr\u016flivem.<\/span><\/p>\n

V\u00fdznam Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu pro glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku nelze p\u0159ece\u0148ovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by n\u011bkdo naru\u0161il cestu, zp\u016fsobilo by to okam\u017eit\u00fd glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomick\u00fd chaos, proto\u017ee by ceny energi\u00ed prudce vzrostly.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

D\u00edky sv\u00e9 dominantn\u00ed geografick\u00e9 poloze a zku\u0161enostem s nekonven\u010dn\u00edm a asymetrick\u00fdm v\u00e1l\u010den\u00edm m\u016f\u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n uzav\u0159\u00edt Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv a ned\u00e1 se s t\u00edm moc d\u011blat.<\/span><\/p>\n

To je geopolitick\u00fd trumf \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analytici se domn\u00edvaj\u00ed, \u017ee by to trvalo t\u00fddny, ne\u017e by americk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da mohla znovu otev\u0159\u00edt \u00fa\u017einu, ale nikdo ve skute\u010dnosti nev\u00ed, zda by to nakonec usp\u011blo. V\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e1 hra Millennium Challenge z roku 2002 nazna\u010duje, \u017ee by tomu tak nebylo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Vojen\u0161t\u00ed strat\u00e9gov\u00e9 o t\u00e9to situaci v\u011bd\u011bli des\u00edtky let. Ale nikdo nena\u0161el realistick\u00fd zp\u016fsob, jak neutralizovat \u00edr\u00e1nskou moc p\u0159es \u00fa\u017einu.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00cdr\u00e1n jednozna\u010dn\u011b prohl\u00e1sil, \u017ee \u00fa\u017einu uzav\u0159e, pokud na ni za\u00fato\u010d\u00ed Izrael nebo USA.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jin\u00fdmi slovy, \u00cdr\u00e1n dr\u017e\u00ed n\u016f\u017e na krku glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomice.<\/span><\/p>\n

USA se pokou\u0161ely svrhnout \u00edr\u00e1nskou vl\u00e1du od revoluce v roce 1979 \u2013 p\u0159es 40 let. \u00cdr\u00e1nsk\u00e1 kontrola Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu v\u017edy slou\u017eila jako hlavn\u00ed odstra\u0161uj\u00edc\u00ed prost\u0159edek pro ambice USA zm\u011bnit re\u017eim a pl\u00e1ny invaze.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed \u00cdr\u00e1n a USA sm\u011b\u0159uj\u00ed ke konfrontaci, kter\u00e1 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 jist\u011b povede k naru\u0161en\u00ed pr\u016flivu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mo\u017en\u00e9 vypuknut\u00ed velk\u00e9 region\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00e1lky na Bl\u00edzk\u00e9m v\u00fdchod\u011b by tentokr\u00e1t mohlo donutit USA k akci proti \u00cdr\u00e1nu.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud mezi USA a \u00cdr\u00e1nem vypukne v\u00e1lka \u2013 co\u017e je st\u00e1le pravd\u011bpodobn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed \u2013 nepochybuji, \u017ee \u00cdr\u00e1n uzav\u0159e Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ozna\u010dit to za velk\u00e9 naru\u0161en\u00ed dod\u00e1vek ropy by bylo velk\u00fdm podcen\u011bn\u00edm.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zva\u017ete n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem prvn\u00edho ropn\u00e9ho \u0161oku v roce 1973 bylo z glob\u00e1ln\u00edho trhu s ropou odstran\u011bno p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 5 milion\u016f barel\u016f. Denn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 produkce ropy v t\u00e9 dob\u011b \u010dinila asi 56 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee zmizelo asi 9 % dod\u00e1vek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ceny ropy vzrostly zhruba na \u010dty\u0159n\u00e1sobek.<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem druh\u00e9ho ropn\u00e9ho \u0161oku v roce 1979 byly ze sv\u011btov\u00e9ho trhu s ropou odstran\u011bny asi 4 miliony barel\u016f. Denn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 produkce ropy v t\u00e9 dob\u011b \u010dinila asi 67 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee zmizelo asi 6 % dod\u00e1vek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ceny ropy se t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 ztrojn\u00e1sobily<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

B\u011bhem t\u0159et\u00edho ropn\u00e9ho \u0161oku v roce 1990 bylo ze sv\u011btov\u00e9ho trhu s ropou sta\u017eeno p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 4,3 milionu barel\u016f. Denn\u00ed sv\u011btov\u00e1 produkce ropy v t\u00e9 dob\u011b \u010dinila asi 66 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee zmizelo asi 7 % dod\u00e1vek.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ceny ropy se v\u00edce ne\u017e zdvojn\u00e1sobily<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pokud by \u00cdr\u00e1n uzav\u0159el Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, bylo by z glob\u00e1ln\u00edho trhu sta\u017eeno neuv\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdch 21 milion\u016f barel\u016f ropy. Dnes je celosv\u011btov\u00e1 produkce ropy kolem 94 milion\u016f barel\u016f denn\u011b, co\u017e znamen\u00e1, \u017ee by mohlo zmizet asi 22 % sv\u011btov\u00fdch z\u00e1sob ropy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jak ukazuje graf n\u00ed\u017ee, \u0161lo by o nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed ropn\u00fd \u0161ok, jak\u00fd kdy sv\u011bt za\u017eil… zdaleka.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Pokud dojde k v\u00e1lce s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a Teher\u00e1n uzav\u0159e Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv, v\u011b\u0159\u00edm, \u017ee dopad na ceny ropy bude p\u0159inejmen\u0161\u00edm stejn\u011b z\u00e1va\u017en\u00fd jako b\u011bhem ropn\u00e9ho \u0161oku v roce 1973, kdy ceny ropy vzrostly \u010dty\u0159n\u00e1sobn\u011b.<\/span><\/p>\n

Podobn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj by dnes mohl zp\u016fsobit r\u016fst cen ropy nad 300 dolar\u016f za barel.<\/span><\/p>\n

Mysl\u00edm si v\u0161ak, \u017ee jde o konzervativn\u00ed odhad, proto\u017ee uzav\u0159en\u00ed Hormuzsk\u00e9ho pr\u016flivu by zp\u016fsobilo mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed nab\u00eddkov\u00fd \u0161ok ne\u017e ropn\u00e9 embargo OPEC z roku 1973.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nemysl\u00edm si, \u017ee trh doce\u0148uje, jak bl\u00edzko jsme v\u00e1lce s \u00cdr\u00e1nem a jak\u00e9 to bude m\u00edt d\u016fsledky.<\/span><\/p>\n

Rozhodn\u011b nejsem zast\u00e1ncem v\u00e1lky. Pohrd\u00e1m v\u00e1lkou, kter\u00e1 je zdrav\u00edm st\u00e1tu.<\/span>
\nP\u0159esto je velmi pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e1 velk\u00e1 v\u00e1lka s v\u00fdznamn\u00fdmi d\u016fsledky pro investice, kter\u00e9 by bylo hloup\u00e9 ignorovat.<\/span><\/p>\n

Od Nicka Giambruna<\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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Zdroj<\/a><\/span><\/h3>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Hormuzsk\u00fd pr\u016fliv je \u00fazk\u00fd p\u00e1s vody, kter\u00fd spojuje Persk\u00fd z\u00e1liv se zbytkem sv\u011bta. Je to…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":60059,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,371,310,276],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60058"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=60058"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/60058\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/60059"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=60058"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=60058"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=60058"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}