{"id":59798,"date":"2024-08-13T00:42:55","date_gmt":"2024-08-12T22:42:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=59798"},"modified":"2024-08-12T17:34:33","modified_gmt":"2024-08-12T15:34:33","slug":"jiri-vyvadil-neni-mozne-se-promlcet-k-udalostem-v-kursku-je-proste-treba-znat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/08\/13\/jiri-vyvadil-neni-mozne-se-promlcet-k-udalostem-v-kursku-je-proste-treba-znat\/","title":{"rendered":"Ji\u0159\u00ed Vyvadil: Nen\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 se proml\u010det k ud\u00e1lostem v Kursku. Je prost\u011b t\u0159eba zn\u00e1t"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Nez\u00e1visl\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fd \u2013 ruskozazy\u010dn\u00fd port\u00e1l Strana prakticky nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u011b sleduje pr\u016fb\u011bh \u00fatoku jsou mi ud\u00e1losti ukrajinsk\u00fdch sil na oblast v Kursku a \u010dasto s p\u0159\u00edm\u011bs\u00ed spekulac\u00ed a dohad\u016f. Proto\u017ee jsou pro mne tyto z\u00e1le\u017eitosti srde\u010dn\u00ed z\u00e1le\u017eitost\u00ed, uv\u00e1d\u00edm jeden z mnoha \u010dl\u00e1nk\u016f, kter\u00fd popisuje situaci a n\u00e1lady v redakci Strany.<\/strong><\/p>\n

-x-x-x-<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>Jak\u00e9 procesy v r\u00e1mci Rusk\u00e9 federace zah\u00e1jila ofenziva ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil v Kursk\u00e9 oblasti?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady nijak nesp\u011bchaj\u00ed, aby zastavily paniku na Telegramu.<\/em><\/p>\n

V situaci s oblast\u00ed Kursk je jedn\u00edm z nejpodivn\u011bj\u0161\u00edch jev\u016f\u00a0syst\u00e9mov\u00e9 rozdm\u00fdch\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed \u201ezrady\u201c a paniky nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00edmi\u00a0\u00a0 Z \u2013 kan\u00e1ly.<\/p>\n

Situace v regionu je pro Ruskou federaci slo\u017eit\u00e1. Zda rusk\u00e9 jednotky stabilizovaly frontu, zat\u00edm nen\u00ed zn\u00e1mo. Snad se ukrajinsk\u00fdm ozbrojen\u00fdm sil\u00e1m opravdu poda\u0159\u00ed Sudzhu dob\u00fdt. Mo\u017en\u00e1 p\u016fjdou do \u00fatoku n\u011bjak\u00fdm jin\u00fdm hrani\u010dn\u00edm sm\u011brem. Z\u00e1rove\u0148 se zd\u00e1, \u017ee rusk\u00e9 vojensko-politick\u00e9 veden\u00ed nechce p\u0159esunout velk\u00e9 jednotky z ukrajinsk\u00e9 fronty, kde\u00a0m\u00e1 nyn\u00ed rusk\u00e1 arm\u00e1da potenci\u00e1l zah\u00e1jit velkou ofenz\u00edvu\u00a0. Z toho vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee stabilizace situace v Kursk\u00e9 oblasti nemus\u00ed b\u00fdt tak rychl\u00e1, nemluv\u011b o vytla\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00fdch jednotek do zahrani\u010d\u00ed. V takov\u00fdch podm\u00ednk\u00e1ch se rusk\u00e9 \u00fa\u0159ady,\u00a0jak jsme ji\u017e psali\u00a0, pokusily zah\u00e1jit informa\u010dn\u00ed kampa\u0148, aby p\u0159ipravily spole\u010dnost na dlouhodob\u00e9 nep\u0159\u00e1telstv\u00ed v oblasti Kurska s o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00edm \u201enevyhnuteln\u00e9ho v\u00edt\u011bzstv\u00ed\u201c v budoucnu.<\/p>\n

Hysterie a rozpt\u00fdlen\u00ed \u201ezrady\u201c Z-kan\u00e1ly v\u0161ak tento pl\u00e1n zni\u010dily.<\/p>\n

Pokud na to ukrajinsk\u00e1 ve\u0159ejnost bezprost\u0159edn\u011b po invazi do Rusk\u00e9 federace v \u00fanoru 2022 reagovala stejn\u011b jako nyn\u00ed rusk\u00e1 – na ofenzivu Ozbrojen\u00fdch sil Ukrajiny v Kursk\u00e9 oblasti (a padala spousta ot\u00e1zek pro tehdej\u0161\u00ed vojensko-politick\u00e9 veden\u00ed zem\u011b), pak by Ukrajina b\u011bhem p\u00e1r dn\u00ed padla.<\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 situace s Kurskkou oblast\u00ed proto op\u011bt uv\u00e1d\u00ed to, \u010demu\u00a0jsme ji\u017e v\u011bnovali pozornost\u00a0: v ukrajinsk\u00e9m informa\u010dn\u00edm prostoru je mnohem v\u00edce po\u0159\u00e1dku a discipl\u00edny, v\u010detn\u011b sebek\u00e1zn\u011b, ne\u017e v rusk\u00e9m. A to je jedna z hlavn\u00edch v\u00fdhod Ukrajiny v sou\u010dasn\u00e9 v\u00e1lce.<\/p>\n

Situace je o to paradoxn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, \u017ee Z-kan\u00e1ly, kter\u00e9 \u0161\u00ed\u0159\u00ed paniku, se stav\u00ed jako pro-putinovsk\u00e9 a pro-v\u00e1le\u010dn\u00e9, obhajuj\u00edc\u00ed v\u00e1lku k v\u00edt\u011bzn\u00e9mu konci, ale z\u00e1rove\u0148 se ze v\u0161ech sil sna\u017e\u00ed podkopat schopnost Ruska toto v\u00e9st. v\u00e1lky, ot\u0159\u00e1s\u00e1n\u00ed arm\u00e1dou a spole\u010dnost\u00ed, diskreditace arm\u00e1dn\u00edho velen\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Verze, \u017ee tyto kan\u00e1ly jsou prost\u011b humbuk za \u00fa\u010delem zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed po\u010dtu odb\u011bratel\u016f a dobrovolnick\u00fdch poplatk\u016f, ze kter\u00fdch \u017eij\u00ed, situaci vysv\u011btluje jen \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b.<\/p>\n

Auto\u0159i v\u011bt\u0161iny t\u011bchto kan\u00e1l\u016f jsou dob\u0159e zn\u00e1m\u00ed a s\u00eddl\u00ed v Moskv\u011b, tak\u017ee Kreml a rusk\u00e9 zpravodajsk\u00e9 slu\u017eby by mohly tento informa\u010dn\u00ed chaos zastavit b\u011bhem okam\u017eiku jedin\u00fdm telefon\u00e1tem. Ale z n\u011bjak\u00e9ho d\u016fvodu to ned\u011blaj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

V\u011bt\u0161ina Z-ve\u0159ejnosti nyn\u00ed rozh\u00e1n\u011bj\u00edc\u00ed \u201ezradu\u201c byla d\u0159\u00edve sou\u010d\u00e1st\u00ed takzvan\u00e9 Prigo\u017einsk\u00e9 s\u00edt\u011b a p\u0159ipravila p\u016fdu pro povst\u00e1n\u00ed a nyn\u00ed je \u0159\u00edzena spolumajitelem cargradsk\u00e9 televize Konstantinem Malofejevem. Malofeev v\u0161ak nen\u00ed tak vlivnou postavou, aby byl \u201eneproniknutelnou\u201c st\u0159echou pro \u201ezrado kan\u00e1ly\u201c. Bez podpory \u010d\u00e1sti kremelsk\u00fdch elit, \u010d\u00e1sti rusk\u00fdch speci\u00e1ln\u00edch slu\u017eeb a z\u00e1stupc\u016f doprovodu Vladimira Putina by tedy takov\u00e1 \u201esvoboda projevu buj\u00edc\u00ed\u201c v telegramov\u00fdch kan\u00e1lech nebyla mo\u017en\u00e1. To znamen\u00e1, \u017ee mu alespo\u0148 nezasahuj\u00ed a mo\u017en\u00e1 ho podporuj\u00ed.<\/p>\n

Ale pro\u010d?<\/p>\n

Vysv\u011btlen\u00ed le\u017e\u00edc\u00ed na povrchu je pokus \u201esesadit\u201c sou\u010dasn\u00e9ho n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edka gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu Valerije Gerasimova a p\u0159iv\u00e9st vlastn\u00ed lidi k velen\u00ed arm\u00e1dy. Co vlastn\u011b cht\u011bla ta sam\u00e1 (z\u0159ejm\u011b) skupina ud\u011blat v roce 2023, kdy\u017e pou\u017eila Prigozhina jako beranidlo a umo\u017enila mu k\u0159i\u010det: \u201eShojgu, Gerasimove, kde jsou ty gran\u00e1ty?<\/p>\n

U\u017e tehdy se v\u0161ak pou\u017eit\u00e9 prost\u0159edky (zni\u010duj\u00edc\u00ed kritika arm\u00e1dn\u00edho velen\u00ed, kter\u00e1 nakonec vedla k povst\u00e1n\u00ed, kter\u00e9 t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 zni\u010dilo Rusko) zd\u00e1ly zjevn\u011b nedostate\u010dn\u00e9 ke stanoven\u00e9mu c\u00edli: zm\u011bn\u011b ve veden\u00ed ministerstva obrany. I kdy\u017e Prigo\u017ein \u0159ekl, \u017ee \u00fa\u010delem jeho ta\u017een\u00ed proti Moskv\u011b byla pouze rezignace Sergeje \u0160ojgu a Valerije Gerasimova, je to zcela jasn\u00e9: pokud \u201ewagnerovci\u201c dobyli Moskvu pot\u00e9, co je Putin ve\u0159ejn\u011b nazval rebely a zr\u00e1dci, a i kdyby Putina opustili v r. Kremlu, by se stal form\u00e1ln\u00edm vl\u00e1dcem. A nejsp\u00ed\u0161 by byl nucen p\u0159edat moc ve volb\u00e1ch v roce 2024 n\u011bkomu jin\u00e9mu. Tomu, na koho na n\u011bj upozornili beneficienti vzpoury. I kdy\u017e je dost pravd\u011bpodobn\u00e9, \u017ee by k p\u0159ed\u00e1n\u00ed moci v\u016fbec nedo\u0161lo, ale m\u00edsto toho za\u010dal zmatek, kolaps zem\u011b a s\u00e9rie vojensk\u00fdch p\u0159evrat\u016f.<\/p>\n

Sou\u010dasn\u00e1 kampa\u0148 v Z-kan\u00e1lech tak\u00e9 p\u0159esahuje r\u00e1mec informa\u010dn\u00ed p\u0159\u00edpravy na person\u00e1ln\u00ed zm\u011bny v gener\u00e1ln\u00edm \u0161t\u00e1bu, a je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce nad r\u00e1mec p\u0159\u00e1n\u00ed Kremlu \u201edr\u017eet gener\u00e1ly ve st\u0159ehu\u201c (to je jedna z b\u011b\u017en\u00fdch verz\u00ed ohledn\u011b d\u016fvody loajality \u00fa\u0159ad\u016f ke kritice arm\u00e1dy ze strany Z-public).<\/p>\n

Proto\u017ee za prv\u00e9, kampa\u0148 nec\u00edl\u00ed na Gerasimova, o kter\u00e9m zna\u010dn\u00e1 \u010d\u00e1st rusk\u00e9 populace nev\u00ed v\u016fbec nic. Za prv\u00e9 to osobn\u011b zas\u00e1hne Putina. Nen\u00ed to Gerasimov, ale Putin, kdo je nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00edm vrchn\u00edm velitelem, garantem suverenity a \u00fazemn\u00ed celistvosti Ruska. Nebyl to Gerasimov, ale Putin, kdo p\u0159e\u010detl v\u00fdzvu k zah\u00e1jen\u00ed \u201ezvl\u00e1\u0161tn\u00ed operace\u201c. Proto pr\u00e1v\u011b v tomto p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b t\u00e9ma hodn\u00e9ho kr\u00e1le a zl\u00fdch bojar\u016f nefunguje.<\/p>\n

Lid\u00e9 si mohou za\u010d\u00edt kl\u00e1st ot\u00e1zky: pokud je v\u0161echno tak \u0161patn\u00e9, jak \u0159\u00edkaj\u00ed Z-kan\u00e1ly, pro\u010d tedy Nejvy\u0161\u0161\u00ed velitel ml\u010d\u00ed? Pro\u010d nepodnikne n\u011bjak\u00e9 mimo\u0159\u00e1dn\u00e9 kroky?<\/p>\n

Paraleln\u011b tyt\u00e9\u017e kan\u00e1ly neust\u00e1le vrhaj\u00ed my\u0161lenku, \u017ee kdyby Prigo\u017ein z\u016fstal na\u017eivu, nestalo by se to, co\u017e zas\u00e1hne i Putina, kter\u00fd prohl\u00e1sil povst\u00e1n\u00ed \u201ewagnerit\u016f\u201c za \u201ezr\u00e1dn\u00e9\u201c.<\/p>\n

Kampa\u0148 veden\u00e1 Z-channels ovliv\u0148uje mor\u00e1lku rusk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti a arm\u00e1dy a podkop\u00e1v\u00e1 d\u016fv\u011bru ve vojensko-politick\u00e9 veden\u00ed zem\u011b. To by mohlo m\u00edt obzvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b v\u00e1\u017en\u00e9 d\u016fsledky pro situaci v arm\u00e1d\u011b, kter\u00e1 je \u201ec\u00edlov\u00fdm publikem\u201c Z-kan\u00e1l\u016f.<\/p>\n

Proto je t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 si p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee se to v\u0161echno d\u011bl\u00e1 jen proto, aby odstranil Gerasimov. Stejn\u011b jako bylo t\u011b\u017ek\u00e9 si p\u0159edstavit, \u017ee Prigo\u017ein \u0161el do Moskvy jen proto, aby odstranil \u0160ojgua.<\/p>\n

Jedn\u00e1 se sp\u00ed\u0161e o ucelen\u00fd pl\u00e1n ur\u010dit\u00e9 skupiny v r\u00e1mci rusk\u00e9 elity, implikuj\u00edc\u00ed n\u011bkter\u00e9 zm\u011bny v r\u00e1mci Rusk\u00e9 federace (je mo\u017en\u00e9, \u017ee v\u010detn\u011b odstaven\u00ed Putina od moci), v r\u00e1mci kter\u00e9ho p\u0159evzet\u00ed kontroly nad arm\u00e1dn\u00edm velen\u00edm jmenov\u00e1n\u00edm jeden z nich na post n\u00e1\u010deln\u00edka gener\u00e1ln\u00edho \u0161t\u00e1bu je jen jeden, i kdy\u017e velmi d\u016fle\u017eit\u00fd krok.<\/p>\n

Otev\u0159enou ot\u00e1zkou je, zda tato skupina funguje samostatn\u011b nebo v koordinaci s Ukrajinou a Z\u00e1padem. V ukrajinsk\u00fdch a rusk\u00fdch politick\u00fdch kruz\u00edch je roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00e1 verze, \u017ee Prigo\u017ein nebo jeho manipul\u00e1to\u0159i koordinovali sv\u00e9 akce s Kyjevem a z\u00e1padn\u00edmi zpravodajsk\u00fdmi slu\u017ebami. Pokud se tato teorie p\u0159enese na sou\u010dasnou situaci, pak lze \u00fatok ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil na Kursk i kampa\u0148 na kan\u00e1lu Z pova\u017eovat za sou\u010d\u00e1st pl\u00e1nu jednoho sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e, \u0159\u00edzen\u00e9ho z jednoho centra.<\/p>\n

I kdy\u017e v\u0161ak tyto \u201ekonspira\u010dn\u00ed teorie\u201c zahod\u00edme, je logick\u00e9 p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dat, \u017ee Ukrajina a Z\u00e1pad, v\u011bdouce o ur\u010dit\u00fdch procesech uvnit\u0159 rusk\u00e9 elity, podnikaj\u00ed kroky, kter\u00e9 maj\u00ed tyto procesy urychlit.<\/p>\n

V p\u0159edve\u010der Prigozhinova povst\u00e1n\u00ed si p\u0159ipom\u00edn\u00e1me, \u017ee v regionu Belgorod byly n\u00e1v\u0161t\u011bvy. Pot\u00e9 za\u010dala ofenziva ukrajinsk\u00fdch ozbrojen\u00fdch sil na ji\u017en\u00ed front\u011b. Nyn\u00ed prob\u00edh\u00e1 ofenz\u00edva v oblasti Kurska, kter\u00e1 zp\u016fsobila \u201ezradu\u201c v Z-kan\u00e1lech p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b ve stejn\u00e9m form\u00e1tu, v jak\u00e9m byla v p\u0159edve\u010der tehdej\u0161\u00edho povst\u00e1n\u00ed. Sou\u010dasn\u00fd z\u00e1sah proti \u201ezrad\u011b\u201c se z\u00e1rove\u0148 stal jakousi n\u00e1cvikem toho, jak a p\u0159es koho lze situaci v Rusku \u201enapumpovat\u201c na r\u016fzn\u00e1 problematick\u00e1 t\u00e9mata. Podle stejn\u00e9ho sch\u00e9matu jako u Kursk\u00e9 oblasti m\u016f\u017ee Z-publics rozdm\u00fdchat t\u00e9ma nap\u0159\u00edklad mezietnick\u00fdch vztah\u016f, kter\u00e9 Rusku pohroz\u00ed v\u00fdbuchem zevnit\u0159 a kolapsem arm\u00e1dy, kde se mnoz\u00ed z\u00e1stupci n\u00e1rodnostn\u00edch men\u0161in a muslim\u016f slou\u017eit.<\/p>\n

Nyn\u00ed jsou tyto procesy st\u00e1le v plenk\u00e1ch a Putin m\u00e1 v\u0161echny p\u00e1ky k jejich neutralizaci. Kreml v\u0161ak v tomto sm\u011bru zat\u00edm \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e9 konkr\u00e9tn\u00ed kroky nepodnikl.<\/p>\n

Uznejte, \u017ee tento \u010dl\u00e1nek je minim\u00e1ln\u011b velmi\u00a0 zaj\u00edmav\u00fd<\/em>\u00a0a z\u00e1v\u011bry si ka\u017ed\u00fd m\u016f\u017ee ud\u011blat s\u00e1m V\u00a0ka\u017ed\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b. Zat\u00edm to vypad\u00e1 na jedin\u00fd z\u00e1v\u011br: Je t\u0159eba vy\u010dkat v\u011bc\u00ed p\u0159\u00ed\u0161t\u00edch.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ji\u0159\u00ed Vyvadil<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nez\u00e1visl\u00fd ukrajinsk\u00fd \u2013 ruskozazy\u010dn\u00fd port\u00e1l Strana prakticky nep\u0159etr\u017eit\u011b sleduje pr\u016fb\u011bh \u00fatoku jsou mi ud\u00e1losti ukrajinsk\u00fdch…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":59801,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[6],"tags":[1503,3133,22,26],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59798"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59798"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59798\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":59800,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59798\/revisions\/59800"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59801"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}