{"id":59449,"date":"2024-08-07T05:18:53","date_gmt":"2024-08-07T03:18:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=59449"},"modified":"2024-08-07T05:18:53","modified_gmt":"2024-08-07T03:18:53","slug":"andrew-korybko-pet-poznatku-z-historicke-vymeny-veznu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2024\/08\/07\/andrew-korybko-pet-poznatku-z-historicke-vymeny-veznu\/","title":{"rendered":"Andrew Korybko: P\u011bt poznatk\u016f z historick\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bny v\u011bz\u0148\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/div>\n

Tato v\u00fdm\u011bna p\u0159edstavuje vz\u00e1cn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 diplomacie nov\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Rusko a Z\u00e1pad si ve \u010dtvrtek vym\u011bnily 24 v\u011bz\u0148\u016f v r\u00e1mci nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed podobn\u00e9 v\u00fdm\u011bny od dob star\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Den\u00edky\u00a0Wall Street Journal<\/a>\u00a0(WSJ) a\u00a0CNN<\/a>\u00a0zve\u0159ejnily podrobn\u00e9 zpr\u00e1vy o diplomacii, kter\u00e1 vedla k t\u00e9to dohod\u011b, v n\u00ed\u017e se jako nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bna objevili Evan Ger\u0161kovi\u010d z WSJ a Vadim Krasikov z Ruska. Den\u00edk\u00a0The New York Times<\/a>\u00a0se rovn\u011b\u017e pod\u011blil o stru\u010dn\u00e9 \u017eivotopisy dal\u0161\u00edch vym\u011bn\u011bn\u00fdch osob. Zde je p\u011bt nejzaj\u00edmav\u011bj\u0161\u00edch informac\u00ed z t\u00e9to historick\u00e9 transakce, kter\u00e9 v\u011bt\u0161in\u011b pozorovatel\u016f mohly uniknout:<\/strong><\/p>\n

1. N\u011bmecko bylo zodpov\u011bdn\u00e9 za to, \u017ee se v\u0161e zdr\u017eelo<\/h2>\n

Rusko sd\u011blilo, \u017ee nebude souhlasit s \u017e\u00e1dnou v\u00fdm\u011bnou bez propu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed Vadima Krasikova, kter\u00fd byl v N\u011bmecku v\u011bzn\u011bn mimo jin\u00e9 za vra\u017edu \u010de\u010densk\u00e9ho teroristy, o n\u00ed\u017e prezident Putin\u00a0\u0159ekl<\/a>\u00a0Tuckerovi Carlsonovi , \u017ee p\u0159ejela autem hlavy rusk\u00fdch v\u011bz\u0148\u016f. N\u011bmecko sice chv\u00edli v\u00e1halo kv\u016fli \u201emor\u00e1lce\u201c propu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed odsouzen\u00e9ho vraha, kter\u00fd si odpyk\u00e1v\u00e1 do\u017eivotn\u00ed trest, ale USA ho p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dily, aby na to p\u0159istoupilo, zejm\u00e9na proto, \u017ee Rusko a B\u011blorusko souhlasily, \u017ee v r\u00e1mci dohody propust\u00ed v\u011bzn\u011bn\u00e9 N\u011bmce.<\/p>\n

2. Polsko, Slovinsko a Norsko p\u0159isp\u011bly, ale nedostaly za to nic<\/h2>\n

Celkem \u010dty\u0159i Rusov\u00e9, kte\u0159\u00ed byli v\u011bzn\u011bni ve v\u00fd\u0161e uveden\u00fdch zem\u00edch, byli rovn\u011b\u017e propu\u0161t\u011bni, p\u0159esto\u017ee jejich vl\u00e1dy za to nic nedostaly. To nazna\u010duje \u00fastupek ze strany Z\u00e1padu, i kdy\u017e ten umo\u017enil Rusku u\u010dinit vlastn\u00ed takov\u00fd \u00fastupek, kter\u00e9ho se dotkneme v dal\u0161\u00edm bod\u011b za to, \u017ee se tato dohoda stala nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed za posledn\u00ed desetilet\u00ed. Tyto t\u0159i z\u00e1padn\u00ed zem\u011b to prezentuj\u00ed jako \u201eakt solidarity\u201c, ale ve skute\u010dnosti je to d\u016fkaz hegemonick\u00e9 moci USA nad nimi.<\/p>\n

3. Rusk\u00e1 \u201eexilov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da\u201c se pravd\u011bpodobn\u011b brzy zformuje<\/h2>\n

V r\u00e1mci t\u00e9to dohody bylo na Z\u00e1pad vysl\u00e1no tak\u00e9 osm \u010dlen\u016f rusk\u00e9 nesyst\u00e9mov\u00e9 \u201eopozice\u201c. Ti podle o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed brzy vytvo\u0159\u00ed \u201eexilovou vl\u00e1du\u201c, kter\u00e1 mo\u017en\u00e1 vzbud\u00ed velkou medi\u00e1ln\u00ed pozornost, ale nedok\u00e1\u017ee m\u00edt \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd vliv uvnit\u0159 Ruska. Jejich zahrnut\u00ed do t\u00e9to v\u00fdm\u011bny se v o\u010d\u00edch N\u011bmecka jevilo jako \u201emor\u00e1ln\u011bj\u0161\u00ed\u201c, a pomohlo tak p\u0159esv\u011bd\u010dit N\u011bmecko, aby souhlasilo. Lze ji tak\u00e9 ch\u00e1pat jako recipro\u010dn\u00ed \u00fastupek za propu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed \u010dty\u0159 v\u00fd\u0161e zm\u00edn\u011bn\u00fdch Rus\u016f z Polska, Slovinska a Norska.<\/p>\n

4. \u00daloha Turecka p\u0159i zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed t\u00e9to v\u00fdm\u011bny jej stav\u00ed do pozice hostitele dal\u0161\u00edho kola m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f<\/h2>\n

Jakkoli je snaha\u00a0\u010c\u00edny<\/a>,\u00a0Indie<\/a>\u00a0a\u00a0Ma\u010farska<\/a>\u00a0o zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed \u0159e\u0161en\u00ed ukrajinsk\u00e9ho konfliktu u\u0161lechtil\u00e1, Turecko m\u00e1 mnohem v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed \u0161anci, \u017ee se mu poda\u0159\u00ed dos\u00e1hnout.\u00a0Jeho role p\u0159i zprost\u0159edkov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/a>\u00a0t\u00e9to posledn\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bny navazuje na p\u0159edchoz\u00ed v\u00fdm\u011bny, kter\u00e9 zprost\u0159edkoval a kter\u00e9 ukazuj\u00ed, \u017ee Rusko a Z\u00e1pad ji st\u00e1le pova\u017euj\u00ed za neutr\u00e1ln\u00edho prost\u0159edn\u00edka. To nazna\u010duje, \u017ee by souhlasily s t\u00edm, aby hostilo dal\u0161\u00ed kolo m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f po vzoru t\u011bch z jara 2022, kter\u00e9 byly nakonec\u00a0sabotov\u00e1ny<\/a>, jakmile budou v\u0161echny strany p\u0159ipraveny, m\u00edsto aby hledaly jinde.<\/p>\n

5. Kamala se pokus\u00ed tuto v\u00fdm\u011bnu politizovat, aby Trumpa zdiskreditovala<\/h2>\n

Trump na ja\u0159e\u00a0tvrdil<\/a>, \u017ee jedin\u011b on m\u016f\u017ee zajistit Ger\u0161kovi\u010dovo propu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed a \u017ee Putina p\u0159im\u011bje, aby s t\u00edm souhlasil jako s laskavost\u00ed, ani\u017e by za to cokoli dostal, nicm\u00e9n\u011b historick\u00e1 v\u00fdm\u011bna z tohoto t\u00fddne uk\u00e1zala, \u017ee se m\u00fdlil. V reakci na to Trump\u00a0nazna\u010dil<\/a>, \u017ee dohoda byla jednostrann\u00e1, p\u0159esto\u017ee Z\u00e1pad z\u00edskal dvakr\u00e1t v\u00edce lid\u00ed ne\u017e Rusko, a tak\u00e9 spekuloval, \u017ee za n\u011b byla vyplacena i hotovost.\u00a0Kamala<\/a>\u00a0se jist\u011b pokus\u00ed tuto v\u00fdm\u011bnu zpolitizovat, aby Trumpa zdiskreditovala, ale nen\u00ed jasn\u00e9, zda to voli\u010de bude a\u017e tak zaj\u00edmat.<\/p>\n

* * *<\/p>\n

Celkov\u011b vzato, ka\u017ed\u00e1 strana v t\u00e9to v\u00fdm\u011bn\u011b dostala, co cht\u011bla, a p\u0159edstavuje vz\u00e1cn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 diplomacie\u00a0nov\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky<\/a>. Kdy\u017e se zamysl\u00edme nad p\u011bti nejd\u016fle\u017eit\u011bj\u0161\u00edmi poznatky, posledn\u00ed dva jsou nejv\u00fdznamn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed, ale ani jeden z nich nelze pova\u017eovat za samoz\u0159ejm\u00fd s ohledem na to, \u017ee Turecko bude hostit dal\u0161\u00ed kolo m\u00edrov\u00fdch rozhovor\u016f (nato\u017e v dohledn\u00e9 dob\u011b) a \u017ee Kamalova politizace t\u00e9to v\u00fdm\u011bny bude m\u00edt n\u011bjak\u00fd vliv na prezidentsk\u00e9 volby. I tak by je ale pozorovatel\u00e9 m\u011bli sledovat, aby zjistili, zda z nich n\u011bco v\u00fdznamn\u00e9ho vzejde.<\/p>\n

Andrew Korybko, PhD<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n

Five Takeaways From The Historic Prisoner Swap<\/a> vy\u0161el 2.8.2024 na korybko.substack.com. P\u0159eklad\u00a0Zvedavec.org<\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tato v\u00fdm\u011bna p\u0159edstavuje vz\u00e1cn\u00fd p\u0159\u00edklad \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u00e9 diplomacie nov\u00e9 studen\u00e9 v\u00e1lky. Rusko a Z\u00e1pad si ve…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":59450,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[1042,295,1135,2228],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59449"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=59449"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59449\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/59450"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=59449"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=59449"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=59449"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}