{"id":594,"date":"2021-04-09T07:40:29","date_gmt":"2021-04-09T05:40:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/?p=594"},"modified":"2021-04-09T07:40:29","modified_gmt":"2021-04-09T05:40:29","slug":"debata-roberts-martyanov-o-vybusne-situaci-na-ukrajine","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/2021\/04\/09\/debata-roberts-martyanov-o-vybusne-situaci-na-ukrajine\/","title":{"rendered":"Debata Roberts-Martyanov o v\u00fdbu\u0161n\u00e9 situaci na Ukrajin\u011b"},"content":{"rendered":"
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P.C.ROBERTS: Martyanov v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee washingtonsk\u00e1 garance Ukrajin\u011b je bou\u0159\u00ed ve sklenici vody, proto\u017ee Washington nebude ochoten riskovat p\u0159\u00edm\u00fd vojensk\u00fd st\u0159et s Ruskem. M\u00e1m obavu, jestli Martyanov na stran\u011b washingtonsk\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy nep\u0159edpokl\u00e1d\u00e1 v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed stupe\u0148 rozvahy, ne\u017e tam skute\u010dn\u011b je.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Kdyby toti\u017e Washington \u010detl sou\u010dasnou situaci spr\u00e1vn\u011b, dal by jeho ministr obrany Ukrajin\u011b garanci proti rusk\u00e9 intervenci? A to v situaci, kdy Ukrajina, nyn\u00ed Washingtonem l\u00e9pe vyzbrojena, sv\u00e9 \u00fatoky na Donbas, obnovuje? Washington chce konflikt Ruska a Ukrajiny a c\u00edlem garance USA Ukrajin\u011b nen\u00ed nic jin\u00e9ho, ne\u017e tento konflikt vyprovokovat. Mo\u017en\u00e1 m\u00e1 Martyanov pravdu v tom, \u017ee Ukrajina je p\u0159\u00edli\u0161 obez\u0159etn\u00e1 na to, aby se na tuto garanci spol\u00e9hala, a t\u00e9\u017e v tom, \u017ee Washington by za svou garanc\u00ed skutkem nejsp\u00ed\u0161 nest\u00e1l. Jen\u017ee ona eskalace konfliktu m\u016f\u017ee m\u00edt sv\u016fj vlastn\u00ed hybn\u00fd moment. Zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00e1 garance by toti\u017e extr\u00e9mistick\u00e9 s\u00edly na Ukrajin\u011b mohly ukrajinsk\u00e9ho prezidenta vehnat do bl\u00e1zniv\u00e9ho \u010dinu. A neokonzervativci a intervencionist\u00e9 v USA by v z\u00e1jmu americk\u00e9 reputace mohli trvat na dodr\u017een\u00ed washingtonsk\u00e9ho slova a \u017e\u00e1dat Bidena, aby p\u0159isp\u011bchal Ukrajin\u011b na pomoc.<\/p>\n

Souhlas\u00edm s Martyanovem v tom, \u017ee by \u0161lo o v\u00e1lku zalo\u017eenou na \u0161\u00edlen\u00e9m nesmyslu, ale takov\u00e9hle\u00a0 v\u011bci se skute\u010dn\u011b d\u011bj\u00ed. Saker a Martyanov jsou o situaci na Ukrajin\u011b l\u00e9pe informov\u00e1ni, ne\u017e j\u00e1, j\u00e1 v\u00edcem\u00e9n\u011b jen kladu ot\u00e1zky Nicm\u00e9n\u011b m\u00e1m za to, \u017ee riziko je vysok\u00e9 a \u017ee ameri\u010dt\u00ed ob\u010dan\u00e9 budou je\u0161t\u011b moc a moc litovat toho, \u017ee dovolili vojenskobezpe\u010dnostn\u00edmu komplexu pou\u017e\u00edt tup\u00fdch demokrat\u016f k tomu, aby prezidentu Trumpovi znemo\u017enili normalizovat vztahy s Ruskem.<\/p>\n

ANDREJ MARTYANOV: Pln\u011b souhlas\u00edm s t\u00edm, \u017ee konfrontace se m\u016f\u017ee velmi rychle prom\u011bnit ve v\u00e1lku se v\u0161\u00edm v\u0161udy, zvl\u00e1\u0161t\u011b kdy\u017e do \u00favahy vezmeme ohromuj\u00edc\u00ed nedostatek kompetence a mimo\u0159\u00e1dnou aroganci a stupiditu sou\u010dasn\u00e9 americk\u00e9 administrativy. Ale Washington v posledn\u00edch 20 letech, a mo\u017en\u00e1 je\u0161t\u011b mnohem d\u00e9le, Rusko \u0161patn\u011b \u010detl a \u0161patn\u011b hodnotil. A pr\u00e1v\u011b v tom spo\u010d\u00edv\u00e1 cel\u00fd probl\u00e9m. Lavrov a Putin Ukrajinu u\u017e mnohokr\u00e1t varovali, aby nepodl\u00e9hala tlaku Washingtonu, kter\u00fd pot\u0159ebuje v\u00e1lku, do kter\u00e9 by bylo zata\u017eeno Rusko. Washington nem\u00e1 vojensk\u00e9 zdroje, se kter\u00fdmi by na Ukrajin\u011b s Ruskem cokoli zmohl. Vojensk\u00e9 jednotky USA v Evrop\u011b, a to v jak\u00e9koli konfiguraci, nejsou pro Rusko, v p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b, \u017ee je Washington \u201ena podporu\u201c Ukrajiny pou\u017eije, ni\u010d\u00edm jin\u00fdm ne\u017e c\u00edli. To v\u0161e se m\u016f\u017ee ud\u00e1t velmi rychle, co\u017e s sebou nese nebezpe\u010d\u00ed eskalace sm\u011brem k nukle\u00e1rn\u00ed v\u00e1lce, proto\u017ee v\u00e1lku konven\u010dn\u00ed nemohou Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty vyhr\u00e1t.<\/em><\/p>\n

Ale op\u011bt je zde to, co \u0159\u00edk\u00e1m u\u017e roky: \u017ee si USA zoufaj\u00ed z toho, jak ekonomicky i vojensky upad\u00e1 jejich vliv v cel\u00e9 Euroasi\u00ed. A pokud si toto zouf\u00e1n\u00ed a tento bez\u00fat\u011b\u0161n\u00fd du\u0161evn\u00ed stav americk\u00fdch \u201eelit\u201c uv\u011bdom\u00edme, nep\u0159ekvap\u00ed n\u00e1s,\u00a0 \u017ee USA jsou hotovy u\u010dinit i \u201enemysliteln\u00e9\u201c, aby si udr\u017eely to, co z americk\u00e9ho imp\u00e9ria je\u0161t\u011b zb\u00fdv\u00e1.\u00a0 Jedin\u00fdm, co v tom p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b m\u016f\u017ee rozbou\u0159en\u00e9 americk\u00e9 hlavy uklidnit, je n\u00e1\u0161 klidn\u00fd ale pevn\u00fd postoj. Lid\u00e9 ve Washingtonu v\u011bd\u00ed, \u017ee ukrajinsk\u00e9 ozbrojen\u00e9 s\u00edly\u00a0 by byly v p\u0159\u00edpadn\u00e9m st\u0159etu vyhlazeny, ale po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed s t\u00edm, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b tohle by jim poskytlo z\u00e1minku k tot\u00e1ln\u00edmu odd\u011blen\u00ed Ruska od Evropy.<\/p>\n

Co k tomu \u0159\u00edct? Rusko ji\u017e dokon\u010dilo svoje p\u0159eorientov\u00e1n\u00ed na Asii, tak\u017ee je na Evrop\u011b rozhodnout se, co chce d\u011blat.<\/p>\n

Rusko a Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty se dnes nach\u00e1zej\u00ed na nesmi\u0159iteln\u00fdch pozic\u00edch a dialog se sou\u010dasn\u00fdmi \u201eelitami\u201c USA nen\u00ed z geopolitick\u00fdch, ekonomick\u00fdch, historick\u00fdch a hlavn\u011b mor\u00e1ln\u011b etick\u00fdch d\u016fvod\u016f mo\u017en\u00fd.<\/p>\n

\u00da\u010dastn\u00edci debaty:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Paul C.Roberts je americk\u00fd ekonom, kter\u00fd byl n\u00e1m\u011bstkem ministra financ\u00ed v n\u011bkdej\u0161\u00ed Reaganov\u011b vl\u00e1d\u011b.<\/p>\n

Andrej Martyanov je rusk\u00fd vojensk\u00fd analytik a autor n\u011bkolika knih s vojenskou t\u00e9matikou.<\/p>\n

Z Martyanova blogu Reminiscence of the Future vybral a p\u0159elo\u017eil Lubom\u00edr Man<\/em><\/p>\n

ZDROJ<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

P.C.ROBERTS: Martyanov v\u011b\u0159\u00ed, \u017ee washingtonsk\u00e1 garance Ukrajin\u011b je bou\u0159\u00ed ve sklenici vody, proto\u017ee Washington nebude…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":595,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[7],"tags":[22,26,37,40],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=594"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/594\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/595"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=594"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=594"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.infokuryr.cz\/n\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=594"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}